Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So I get out of classes yesterday, and I'm thinking "Wow, I love art history! I'm barely aware I'm even taking it." And I'm thinking "Wow, I love aesthetics. It's so funny, having class with smart alecky boys." And I'm reading the thread and I'm eating lunch and I'm thinking "Wait, who has the most votes? What's happening?" And I take a slightly closer look and think "Why did they kill Cap? ZOMG he's a wolf?"

So now I'm thinking I need to reread the thread and figure out how people saw his behavior and was like "Wolf" when I really hadn't thought twice about him.

[Boromir88]

I thought for sure that was going to end in disaster. What a thrill. Now why do you hate Day 1's again Fea?

P.S. I'm going to a ball game tomorrow at 1, so I will have to vote pretty early today.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now why do you hate Day 1's again Fea?

Chaos theory.

[Brinniel]

CoD's role was pretty surprising. I wasn't expecting him to be a wolf...but then again I've never played with him before so I didn't know what to expect. And to think I was starting to feel bad for the guy to be a Day 1 lynchee since I don't think he's played for awhile...

Okay, so the voting count:

Rikae: ++Sally (Sally 1)
Shasta: ++Boromir (Sally 1, Boromir 1)
Brinn: ++Mac (Sally 1, Boromir 1, Mac 1)
Gwath: ++Rikae (Sally 1, Boromir 1, Mac 1, Rikae 1)
McCaber: ++CoD (Sally 1, Boromir 1, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 1)
Lalwendë: ++Brinn (Sally 1, Boromir 1, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 1, Brinn 1)
Fëa: ++Boro (Sally 1, Boromir 2, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 1, Brinn 1)
Izzy: ++CoD (Sally 1, Boromir 2, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 2, Brinn 1)
Kath: ++Brinn (Sally 1, Boromir 2, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 2, Brinn 2)
Mac: ++CoD (Sally 1, Boromir 2, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 3, Brinn 2)
Nogrod: ++Gwath (Sally 1, Boromir 2, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 3, Brinn 2, Gwath 1)
Sally: ++Boromir (Sally 1, Boromir 3, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 3, Brinn 2, Gwath 1)
Mithalwen: ++CoD (Sally 1, Boromir 3, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 4, Brinn 2, Gwath 1)
Boromir: ++Lal (Sally 1, Boromir 3, Mac 1, Rikae 1, CoD 4, Brinn 2, Gwath 1, Lal 1)

What does this mean? Well, we can't disregard the possibility of a wolf-on-wolf vote...but when it was so close I think it's less likely. If any of the CoD voters were wolves, I think it would've been an earlier voter...unless we have some very bold wolves among us.

So McCaber, Izzy, Mac, and Mith look pretty innocent to me right now...particularly the latter two.

Question: Why kill Kath? In my opinion, there were probably more obvious kills than her after a Fenris Wolf....so she's an interesting choice.

[Mithalwen]

Hi, I am here but need to read through. I maz have to vote earlz since I think I am doing the good godmother act tomorrow....

[Boromir88]

Fea, have you been watching Jurassic Park lately?

Question: Why kill Kath? In my opinion, there were probably more obvious kills than her after a Fenris Wolf....so she's an interesting choice.~Brin

Everyone's always surprised when Kath dies...well except for Mith. I think that's the only blotch on Mith's record is if she was a wolf she would go for Kath very early.

Brin, check out this theory...Kath appeared, says she agrees with Mac's points against you and thus votes for you. You're a wolf, believed Kath was the seer, and she dreamed about you (because of the way she kind of sneakily enters in and casts a vote for you). Now you come in to the day asking about "why kill Kath?" to look like you're trying to help us.

or, well the wolves are setting you up honey.

[Boromir88]

Ooh look what I found. In post 67 CoD, votes for Day 1. In post 69 (some 50 minutes later):

Seriously? No, really, you're bluffing right? This is one of those 'I'm going to let the Daleks think they can kill me but really my companion is bringing the TARDIS back in five minutes to save my behind' kind of things, right?

I just find this extremely....not good. (Late night, apologies. Off for a nap then I'll come back. And if I don't, as fair warning, it's because my computer's been acting up like none other.)~Sally

In Post 92:

Captain: I've played with a few Captains before, and it's always interesting. Harkness always wants to "meet new people" and that creepy woman from UNIT had an obsession with left-hand turns. This Captain? Votes, but doesn't. At the same time, though, I've never played with Captain before, so I'll just leave this alone, at least for toDay.

Post 119:

I agree. I'm between Boro and Brinn myself, unless something happens in these last ten(ish) minutes. I'd like to figure out what Captain's up to so I'm not too keen on that route. Bah, I'll send this and see what time the Downs says it is, then I may comment more.

Post 136:

It's true, Captain has been the least helpful, but that doesn't mean we have a Captain Fuzzball on our hands. I can't kill someone with good conscience when I have no idea what they're on about, at least not the first Day.


Between the two candidates besides Captain....

++Boro (sorry, dearie. hate to see you go but....you understand....)

Sally is the first one to point out the strangeness in CoD's vote, and continues to go back to that, but when it comes down to crunch time she votes for me. Now, she did consistently name me and Brin as her other suspects, but so?...that's a clever wolf covering her tracks. In her last post she defends CoD and explains why she can't vote for him and goes on to vote for me. Sorry, sally, I don't understand why you voted for me, care to explain?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

[Everyone's always surprised when Kath dies...well except for Mith. I think that's the only blotch on Mith's record is if she was a wolf she would go for Kath very early.

[.

Kath is a very good player who hadn't been around much. She also wasn't an obvious choice for ranger protection. Though I got that wrong....

But Boro dearest, I fear you may have taken a knock to the head - only blotch on my record as a wolf wanting Kath dead? More or less unanimously Fenrised first time, gave my self up another .... only successes thanks to my team mates.... you are up to something and I am stilll trying it figure it out. I am not used to you being this nice to me in werewolf games.........

[Boromir88]

But Boro dearest, I fear you may have taken a knock to the head - only blotch on my record as a wolf wanting Kath dead? More or less unanimously Fenrised first time, gave my self up another .... only successes thanks to my team mates.... you are up to something and I am stilll trying it figure it out. I am not used to you being this nice to me in werewolf games.........~Mith

Oh no, no, I met in this village the only reason I can think to suspect you is Kath ends up dead on Day 1, and I know you like killing Kath on Day 1.

Now what am I up to for being much nicer to you in this game? Well, I have that soothing, calm sense in your posts that I get from an innocent Mith. And call it my strange way of telling you there was no need to apologize.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh no, no, I met in this village the only reason I can think to suspect you is Kath ends up dead on Day 1, and I know you like killing Kath on Day 1.

Now what am I up to for being much nicer to you in this game? Well, I have that soothing, calm sense in your posts that I get from an innocent Mith. And call it my strange way of telling you there was no need to apologize.

But I value her friendship enough not to make a habit of it...

Ah you move in mysterious ways....

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Boromir

Brin, check out this theory...Kath appeared, says she agrees with Mac's points against you and thus votes for you. You're a wolf, believed Kath was the seer, and she dreamed about you (because of the way she kind of sneakily enters in and casts a vote for you). Now you come in to the day asking about "why kill Kath?" to look like you're trying to help us.

or, well the wolves are setting you up honey.

Hah, well it must be the latter because I'm certainly not a wolf.

Anyway, do you really think I would kill someone on Night 2 thinking they're a possible seer just because they voted me? I know from past games I'm someone who's rarely ever dreamt of...and honestly, the possibility that the seer would dream of me on Night 1 is the last thing I'd expect.

Originally Posted by Mith

Kath is a very good player who hadn't been around much. She also wasn't an obvious choice for ranger protection.

Ah yes, the ranger...I almost forgot. Perhaps that's why the wolves didn't kill those who I thought would be more obvious choices. Good point.

[Macalaure]

CaptainofDespair only made one real post. He's mildly suspicious of me, Rikae, and Boro, so I would say that not both Rikae and Boro are wolves.

Kath only had one real post, too. She suspects Brinn and votes for her. She also slightly suspicious of Mith and says she doesn't know why people don't like Boro.

I still think she was killed for the lack of trails. But I think it's possible, though not too likely, that a Brinnwolf wanted to get rid of one of her attackers.

Early Votes:
Rikae -> Sally. More or less random vote.
Shasta -> Boro. Either hunch or spite.
Brinn -> Mac. A bit of a retaliation there, but on Day 1, you often don't have any better.
Gwath -> Rikae. Can't really follow his reasoning. Not sure what to think of this vote.

Mid-votes:
Caber -> CoD. Probably an innocent vote. He must've been aware that this vote could cause a bandwaggon.
Lal -> Brinn. I can see her reasoning, so her vote doesn't make me suspicious.
Fea -> Boro. Their feud has been going on all day, so the vote isn't surprising. I'm still somewhat uneasy about Fea and will look at her closely today.
Izzy -> CoD. Surely an innocent vote, because it keeps his name in the pot.
Kath -> Brinn.
me -> Cod. Most innocentish vote of all.

Late votes:
Nogrod -> Gwath. He's consistent in his suspicion. He could have voted Boro to save CoD (unless Boro's a wolf, too), but didn't.
Sally -> Boro. This vote has me thinking.
Mith -> CoD. This is most likely this is an innocent vote, but I could see it as a backstab, too. I think it's possible Mithwolf thought it was too risky to try to save him and instead decided to sacrifice him to make herself look good.
Boro -> Lal This has a bit of a throwaway feeling to it. However, if he and CoD are both wolves, why didn't Boro act earlier and gave his vote to a third candidate to make it possible for them both to survive?

The only vote that's somewhat suspicious is Sally's. This has me thinking at least one, maybe both, wolves are hiding among the earlier voters.

The Captain's Day One vote caused some eyebrows to be raised early. McCaber votes for him, Sally thinks about it, but then decides to give him a second chance. Then there's Izzy's vote rather out of the blue. After that, Nogrod ponders voting for him as a second-best choice. Mith and I then state we might vote for him and will later do so. Shasta, Sally, and Boro dissuade people from going after CoD. Nogrod refrains from it and goes with his first choice (who at this point was very unlikely to get enough support).

[Macalaure]

In a nutshell:

Worried about:
Brinn, Fea, Gwath, Sally

Slightly worried about:
Boro, Nogrod

No idea:
Nerwen, Nilp

Not sure about, but not alarmed:
Rikae, Shasta

Probably innocent:
Isabellkya, Lal, McCaber, Mith

[Nogrod]

Wow! Hopefully this will encourage people to lynch those who try to just slip through Day1 with nonsense in the following games. I mean if there would be that kind of general attitude the wolves (and innocents) would know they will have to actually play on Day1 as well and the game would become so much more interesting.

As I said yesterDay his playing style annoyed me but I was thinking of him as an ordo trying to get through Day1 as easily as possible to see whether he would get interested in the game later on.

Luckily many enough were ready to vote him off.


I'll summarise the few lists given here already to form myself a preliminary manual for where to look toDay.

McCaber, Isabell, Mac and Mith voted for CoD. Looking at the closeness of the race yesterDay it seems - like Brinn already commented - a bit unlikely there is a wolf among them. It's possible, to be sure but still...

CoD "suspected" Macalaure, Rikae and Boro. That was quite an early post and so he had no reason to believe he was going to get lynched. So it could be believable that those he mentioned were innocent indeed to whom he wished to point the discussion to go for. It's possible he put one of his fellows there to be sure but like Mac said it's improbable both of his mates are there and personally - at least for the time being I'm bending to think there are not even one of his mates there.

If these points are plausible - as working-hypotheses to begin with - then it would suggest that we could feel pretty safe with:

McCaber
Isabell
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Rikae
Boro

Nice list indeed. And I'd bet a lot against there being two wolves there.

So that leaves us with:

Nerwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Nogrod
Gwathagor
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Brinniel
Lalwendë

And one or two wolves lurking there.

(Before anyone jumps on it: no, I'm not suggesting this is the final truth of the matter or think we should forget the above six and only notice what the rest say... No, no and no. I'm just trying to help myself to orientate and to see where to look in the beginning toDay.)

[Mithalwen]

I am afraid I am going th have to cut and run shortly - I do have to see the godchild so may be a semi random vote - hopefully which will turn out as well as the last one...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

McCaber, Isabell, Mac and Mith voted for CoD. Looking at the closeness of the race yesterDay it seems - like Brinn already commented - a bit unlikely there is a wolf among them. It's possible, to be sure but still...

CoD "suspected" Macalaure, Rikae and Boro. That was quite an early post and so he had no reason to believe he was going to get lynched. So it could be believable that those he mentioned were innocent indeed to whom he wished to point the discussion to go for. It's possible he put one of his fellows there to be sure but like Mac said it's improbable both of his mates are there and personally - at least for the time being I'm bending to think there are not even one of his mates there.

If these points are plausible - as working-hypotheses to begin with - then it would suggest that we could feel pretty safe with:

McCaber
Isabell
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Rikae
Boro

Nice list indeed. And I'd bet a lot against there being two wolves there.

I agree that those who voted against CoD are unlikely wolves, given, as you say, the closeness of the voting.

However, I'm inclined to be more wary of any lists of "suspects" that wolves produce, no matter what point in the game they occur. I'd bet that there's at least one wolf in that group. CoD doesn't seem to be the most sophisticated player (correct me if I'm wrong), and "suspecting" a fellow wolf is about as straightforward a wolf tactic as there is. But since we've exonerated Mac (since he was instrumental in lynching CoD), that leaves Boro and Rikae.

Which one, I couldn't say.

Also, Nogrod, could you explain your suspicion of me yesterDay? As far as I can tell, it's mostly groundless and exaggerated, compounded by the fact that you spent several posts fishing for other votes against me - which, of course, looks like a wolf trying to start a bandwagon.

That's all I've got for now.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm certainly not a wolf.

Okay, who's the next one to declare innocence?


But there are actually things in Brinn's posting I think merit a second look.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Anyway, do you really think I would kill someone on Night 2 thinking they're a possible seer just because they voted me?

I don't think anyone has said that. But if you're a wolf and saw Kath coming out of the blue just stating her suspicion & vote, you might think she could be the seer. And seers will have to go whatever the cost - even if it means the death of the seer frames one wolf. The seer is too dangerous not to be killed at the first possible instant.

Originally Posted by Brinn

honestly, the possibility that the seer would dream of me on Night 1 is the last thing I'd expect.

What you expect or don't isn't actually an argument in your favour in this case (or in any case). Why do you state that expectation? The more interesting part does begin right here.

So let's assume you're a wolf for the argument's sake. Now you realise that your trying to kill the seer backfired and you are exposed because someone guessed right the reason behind Kath's death. Understandably you feel an urge to purify your name and so you try to come up with every possible reason why the theory doesn't hold. Then you come up with a) I wouldn't kill someone for just voting me & b) and the seer wouldn't have dreamt of me anyway...

Now these surely might be things you could come up with and defend both of them. It's only that bringing them up together looks kind of fishy. I mean if you were an innocent you wouldn't probably think it that way, if you get what I mean.

And to add one small thing more; if you're an innocent why do you speculate about yourself being dreamt of in that fashion? If you're an innocent a seer dream means you're a known innocent by now. It's not something you should be afraid of or in need to convince others that has not happened - or that you would not expect that it has happened...

Ah yes, the ranger...I almost forgot. Perhaps that's why the wolves didn't kill those who I thought would be more obvious choices. Good point.

The classic, straight from the Werewolf handbook! Was it Hint #13 for tightening situations?

To open the Day by asking why Kath was killed and to leave an impression you had no idea is actually a sound wolf tactics as Boro already mentioned. Saying that you forgot about the ranger kind of underlines the very same thing: look at me, I have no idea why she was killed. But why would an innocent stress that so much? A wolf might feel the need to do that though...

And to add that classical "Good point" you try to help a common consensus to be built that the reason for Kath's death was her being a safe kill and not being one you thought was the seer...


Okay this is all very speculative. I admit it myself. But still it's my second best suspicion this far (Gwath still remaining my #1 at the moment).

It may be you Brinn have been framed. It may be Boro indeed is our cobbler and he has been grinning all the time he has read my post until now of course...

[Macalaure]

So CoD was really a wolf. Hehe. I don't think such a shot in the dark (at least for me it partly was one) has ever been successful, but eventually, it had to.

They killed Kath... my first idea is that the wolves try to turn their misery into an advantage and have us run out of things to say today: CoD was rather silent, and Kath hasn't been too talkative either.

I'll be back later with thoughts on the dead and the voting.