Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Formendacil]

What with getting my ends-of-Days mixed up, and discovering that I may not be on much toDay... you're in for an early vote, I suspect, though I might make it back on to harangue the lot of you in the wee hours.

First of all, the whole business of killing Kitanna yesterDay?

Idiots.

The whole lot of you.

Even those of you who DIDN'T vote for Kitanna are idiots, because you were so scattered and over the map that you may as well have done.

I mean seriously...

When someone's doomed to die, what kind a sloppy passing the buck is it to use that as an excuse to avoid taking responsibility for having to make a legitimate lynch? I mean, Day 1s are normally useless enough as it is... but to make it worse?

Best you could hope for was that Kitanna was a cobbler. If she was a wolf or a Gifted, Mac would probably have mentioned it. So, not only did you abdicate responsibility for killing someone, you did it knowing that the person dying was almost certainly not a wolf.

You didn't even try.

Bah!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

What with getting my ends-of-Days mixed up, and discovering that I may not be on much toDay... you're in for an early vote, I suspect, though I might make it back on to harangue the lot of you in the wee hours.

First of all, the whole business of killing Kitanna yesterDay?

Idiots.

The whole lot of you.

Even those of you who DIDN'T vote for Kitanna are idiots, because you were so scattered and over the map that you may as well have done.

I mean seriously...

When someone's doomed to die, what kind a sloppy passing the buck is it to use that as an excuse to avoid taking responsibility for having to make a legitimate lynch? I mean, Day 1s are normally useless enough as it is... but to make it worse?

Best you could hope for was that Kitanna was a cobbler. If she was a wolf or a Gifted, Mac would probably have mentioned it. So, not only did you abdicate responsibility for killing someone, you did it knowing that the person dying was almost certainly not a wolf.

You didn't even try.

Bah!

We lost two innocents yesterday. Had we lynched someone OTHER than Kitanna, it would have been three. I'm interested to hear just why it's a bad thing that we have one more person alive than we would have had.

Edit: "would have had", not "would have".

[Shastanis Althreduin]

And may I add that you are calling yourself an idiot? I don't know that I speak for everyone else, but I certainly speak for myself when I say I don't like and will not stand for being disparaged by the likes of someone who has apparently never read the parable about glass houses.

Edit: "are", not "were". My grammar gets a bit rusty when I'm annoyed.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And may I add that you are calling yourself an idiot? I don't know that I speak for everyone else, but I certainly speak for myself when I say I don't like and will not stand for being disparaged by the likes of someone who has apparently never read the parable about glass houses.

Edit: "are", not "were". My grammar gets a bit rusty when I'm annoyed.

Oh yes, I'm delightfully aware of the irony... or, rather, the perception of irony.

See, I didn't deliberately not vote yesterDay. Rather, I got my times wrong, had a cake at work, got home late, and was much, much too late....

But, since I can see into the depths of my soul, I know I would not have voted Kitanna. Voting for someone already on death row is like liking Days 1--I just don't do that.

So I can throw all the rocks I want, in this particular situation: my house ain't glass. (In this case it's a really ugly stucco, so while those who live in stuccoed houses shouldn't go on about shag-carpeted houses.... but that's a convoluted analogy.)

Furthermore, there's a gaping hole in your logic there, Shasta. You aver that had we actually killed someone yesterday instead of rubberstamping the mod's necessary actions, we would have three innocents death.

Rubbish!

Your reasoning assumes that the person killed yesterday would actually have been an innocent. Not necessarily so. Although not quite as statistically possible, one should not think that--on Day 1 of all days!--we would certainly not have hit a cobbler. (Although lupine Fenrii abound, I do not suggest we'd have caught one, since that would go against the grain of my Day 1 tendencies... though I guess it IS logically possible.)

Furthermore, the actions of both the wolves and the Cobbler-Hunter could have been much different last Night if there had been an actual attempt to kill someone. We could, in theory, have three cobblers dead right now, alongside Kitanna.

[the phantom]

Personally, I can't believe that Groin wasn't killed during the night. Did you see what he posted on the Admin thread yesterday?

However, I think that I'll be able to make it tomorrow and I have some argumentative points that I want to make about a potential wolf!

He might as well hang a "Kill me" sign around his neck. It looks so much like a relatively new player who has found a WW with his dream and is chomping at the bit to post. I was sort of expecting to show up today and find him a dead Seer, and everyone slapping their foreheads asking why he had to be so obvious.

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Looking through yesterday nobody really raises a Seer flag. Or at least not obviously. A few people did give me Cobbler vibes though, so I would guess that the WWs tried to kill someone they were sure wasn't a Cobbler, and hope they got one of the two gifteds. Of course this means that the gifteds would do well to look slightly Cobblerish. I'm fairly certain they're doing it already though, for I'm seeing a Cobbler in more than four places at this point. Which is why I don't want to point fingers at Cobblers at this time.

[Formendacil]

Okay, because I have to get to bed, and because I really don't know for sure if I'll be back before the deadline (like to, but no promises)...

++the phantom

Because, if I were the mods and I was rigging the game, the four cobblers would be:

Nogrod
Fea

Me

and
the phantom.

And, of the three, the phantom's the only one I can bear to kill.

[the phantom]

Such powerful reasoning. You must care deeply about what happens to this village, Formendacil.

Because, if I were the mods and I was rigging the game, the four cobblers would be:

Nogrod
Fea
Me
the phantom

So you're actually admitting to it?

At this point in the game with all four Cobblers still alive it does indeed make sense to start gathering suspicion to yourself and playing off your usual style and a bit sloppy, but you're taking things a bit too far, Form. Are you really desperate to get out of this village? Feeling pressed for time in RL, so you want to do your bit and get lynched and get out?

I'm wondering if I even want to give you that satisfaction. I say we leave you for the Cobbler Hunter.

[Nogrod]

Okay. the phantom first then...

Originally Posted by the phantom

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Looking through yesterday nobody really raises a Seer flag. Or at least not obviously.

Now if tp is a wolf that would be exactly what he would say! Or at least one of the reasonable options for him.

Look at the first underlining. So he downplays the theory about Lalaith giving seer-hints in the disguise of points on cobblerism with the reason that the seer can't see cobblers. If the conspiracy-theory holds then that was exactly the reason tp and his mate wished to do away with her. Lalaith's go on tp was definitive - and tp is quick to think he has been the one dreamt of by the seer on Night1 as you all know, I think.

The second underlined sentence just gives the case some added credibility even if as such it's of no good. But downplaying the idea that there was any seerish looking posting on Day1 eases the pressure on this particular case of Lalaith - phantom as well. But in the last instance it's only the wolves who can say whether someone's posting looked seerish in a way of being like that in it's tenor and also hitting the target eg. being possible "seer-posting".

So despite all his eloquence, charm and entertainment value I will be looking at the phantom more closely toDay.

Fea next... (after a pause with a cigarette and some thinking & reading...)


EDIT: X'd with Nilp

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Actually he thought Groin was the seer, and not suspicious--it was I who suspected them.

Yes, you suspected Groin first toDay but the phantom agreed with the possibility of your idea in post #179 - which was kind of an un-phantomish thing...


EDIT: Explanation as to why it is an unphantomish thing to do: he went to it somehow too quickly or easily. Like he was happy that someone brought forwards one more possibility for him to use his imagination and to back up his forthcoming vote. No, it's not that he needs help but maybe he just let his feeling show through the post that "yay, one more case I could make!".

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

We lost two innocents yesterday. Had we lynched someone OTHER than Kitanna, it would have been three.

Pessimist. Did you forget about the SIX bad guys we might have lynched, rather than Kitanna? We were already losing two innocents, yes. But we were by no means guaranteed to make it three; we were betting on the odds to lose two innocents (one that we had no say in) but still manage to salvage the situation by knocking off an enemy.

With the votes all going for Kitanna, the wolves and cobblers got a completely free day without even the threat of death. That might be a first in werewolf history, that an entire village votes for a 'known' innocent rather than even bothering to try to win the game.

Originally Posted by phantom

I can't imagine that I wasn't checked by the Assassin last night, and I also am convinced of Formendacil's Cobblerism.

Which is why I'm inclined to believe you, and support whole-heartedly your narcissism. Hold out and listen to me: I approve of the phantom's approach of diverting all attention to himself because it guarantees that if he's bad, the seer will know it early and we'll be able to kill him, and if he's good, he'll have somebody on his side.

Either way, his actions guarantee him a credible witness rather than just "he feels innocent-ish."

Seers search for the likes of dramatists. They're too dangerous to remain unknowns. I agree with his conviction that he was checked by the Assassin. It's what I'd have done in that place. If he was a cobbler, I feel very strongly that he'd be dead right now.

If I'm wrong? Well, it happens. Either way, I still hold onto my belief that a living phantom who is posting truths and evidence is more helpful in the short term than a dead one.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think we've debated about this before, but I must say I disagree. The wolves know they're bad and sinful etc, so that might make them act guiltily. Also, they might do lots of things normal innocents are not so enthusiastic about - like trying to make friends, getting gifted-looking people lynched or give advice to each other, just to give a few examples. Oh, and they also have their packmateness to hide from the others. So I think there is plenty of evidence even without a wolf kill.

In which case we really do disagree. I've thought about killing people. That does not make me a murderer. No court on earth has a leg to stand on if they wanted to try to nail me on guilt of being a murderous criminal. Until there is a crime, there is not a criminal. Until there is an ACTION, not a thought, to hide or defend, there is absolutely nothing to prosecute. You can't hold trial for somebody who's 'just thinking about it.'

In that line, somebody who hasn't done anything, having nothing to hide, has no guilt to keep people from noticing. Day One is a day in which nobody is guilty of anything. Nothing has been done. Since there was no crime, nothing to hide: nothing!, there is no evidence to search through.

Everybody is feeling each other out day one. Everyone is looking for possible alliances. Nobody is any more or less suspicious than anybody else.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm a bit baffled as to why Shasta voted tp that early as he still seems to have been able to be around. Is he a cobbler or is he just genuinely very annoyed with him? I know tp can be annoying and I've been tempted to vote him just because of that sometimes, but Shasta's behaviour looks quite rash. Cobbleristic, even.

I completely agree. I think I'm going to have to vote early. A friend to pick up at the airport, and I'm not sure I'll be back in time for close of day...

And right now? Shasta's looking to get my lynch-vote.

Gotta go to work...

[A Little Green]

I'm here at last - though I probably won't be able to contribute as much as I did yesterDay. Firstly, some thoughts about toDay's posts.

Originally Posted by the phantom, about Form

I think he knows good and well that I'm innocent and wants me gone.

Could you elaborate? Why exactly do you presume that Form knows you are innocent?

Originally Posted by Fea

In that line, somebody who hasn't done anything, having nothing to hide, has no guilt to keep people from noticing. Day One is a day in which nobody is guilty of anything. Nothing has been done. Since there was no crime, nothing to hide: nothing!, there is no evidence to search through.

It is true that on Day 1 no crime has yet been committed, and also I agree that Day 1 might be useless in a way. BUT there is one thing I think you do not take into account. It is that even on Day one, the wolves differ from the others in a crucial way. They know who is innocent and who is wolf. All cases they make are fake.

I'm uncomfortable about tp and Mith (what she did yesterDay would be indeed really bold for a baddie but I think she could pull it off, and now everyone seems to trust her..). And I am definitely going to have a look on those who slept under the reindeer in yesterDay's voting on both sides, meaning both Kitanna-voters and the so-called throwaway-voters.

Back with thoughts, hopefully.


EDIT: x-ed with Kath - hello! *waves*

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Fea

Which is why I'm inclined to believe you, and support whole-heartedly your narcissism. Hold out and listen to me: I approve of the phantom's approach of diverting all attention to himself because it guarantees that if he's bad, the seer will know it early and we'll be able to kill him, and if he's good, he'll have somebody on his side.

I think it's very silly to assume that the cobbler assassin or the seer have done or are going to choose a specific person, I don't care who.

Originally Posted by Fea

That might be a first in werewolf history, that an entire village votes for a 'known' innocent rather than even bothering to try to win the game.

The entire village didn't vote for Kitanna. Greenie and I voted for Gwath, Brinniel and Eonwe voted for Greenie, Lommy voted for Nogrod, Nogrod for Groin, and phantom for Lalaith. The scattered voting at the very end is of concern, but everyone's too busy still arguing about yesterDay and is distracted by Form and of course ever distracted by phantom.

I agree with Brinniel on Nerwen. I agree with Greenie on Mith - her moves yeterDay have practically made her an assumed innocent. She feels innocent to me in her manner, but that is definitely something to pay attention to.

I'm still looking at Nogrod.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Quite honestly, I just don't see why a wolf would want to lynch Kitanna rather than have a chance of the death of two innocents in one Day.

To gain the village's trust. To do something people wouldn't expect a wolf to do. Their goal is more to survive than just to mindlessly slaughter as quickly as possible! To leave a clean vote. To continue a debate that will distract the village...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Fea

In which case we really do disagree. I've thought about killing people. That does not make me a murderer. No court on earth has a leg to stand on if they wanted to try to nail me on guilt of being a murderous criminal. Until there is a crime, there is not a criminal. Until there is an ACTION, not a thought, to hide or defend, there is absolutely nothing to prosecute. You can't hold trial for somebody who's 'just thinking about it.'

In that line, somebody who hasn't done anything, having nothing to hide, has no guilt to keep people from noticing. Day One is a day in which nobody is guilty of anything. Nothing has been done. Since there was no crime, nothing to hide: nothing!, there is no evidence to search through.

No, no, no. That's a bad comparison. Werewolves don't just think about or plan killing somebody. They know they are going to do it. They have to do it in order to win. There's a big difference. So, naturally, they are feeling guilty already on Day1 because they know they're going to kill sombody and thus, their guilt can show, and analysing people's Day1 behaviour is not nonsense.

I think I'll reread yesterDay when I have the time and energy to do that. meanwhile, I could provide you with a nice little list about my thoughts on everybody...


Feel innocentish

Eönwë - shines with the light of ordoness, if one may say so. If he's a baddie, he's really sneaky.

Greenie - overall, her tone seems sincere and she has done nothing to make me suspicious of her. My picture of her is rather vague though, I hope she posts a little more in the future. (But I guess she's going to be rather busy today... too bad.)

Mith - her tone is sincere as well and she seems quite relaxed. She doesn't seem unhappy or stressed like many evil Miths do. I think suggesting lynching Kitanna would have been quite bold of a wolf. (Not of a cobbler though. But she doesn't feel cobblerish at all to me. She's not particularily silly nor does she look like she's scheming something dangerous. And she doesn't look like she's trying to get lynched.)

Nilp - nothing in his manner seems too suspicious, he seems rather okay. He is reasonable and doesn't make sense (yes, you probably read it correctly) the way innocents do. I know he has fooled me before, though. I think he might be one of those people who just don't give wolvish vibes even if they are furry. I might need to keep an eye on him but I don't feel like I had a reason to be extra watchful... (Yeah, I know I'm flip-flopping, but I cannot express myself any more clearly...)

Could be either

Brinn - yesterDay, she seemed really innocent to me. Today, not so much. Somehow I have the feeling she's on the wrong track in her general ideas, maybe because I disagree with her about the Kitanna lynch, for example. I wonder if she's "wrong" intentionally... () I hoped I had grown out of suspecting people who disagree with me, but evidently I haven't. There's nothing particularly suspicious in her manner though, so it's pretty difficult to reach a conclusion.

Fea - I always have hard time reading her. I think her phantom-centeredness might point at her being either an ordo or a cobbler. Furthermore, she hasn't done anything suspicious, but if I had to guess who's a wolf, I would possibly name her. I know, it's silly, I'm not really suspicious of her, but I have a kind of intuition she might be a wolf. She's someone I'm definitely going to watch.

Groin - there's really too little data. Come on guy, come here and post! It's not that difficult or scary!

Gwath - I have really mixed feelings about him. In general, he feels quite innocent, but there's something all too sneaky in his manner. I think he could be a wolf who's tiptoeing around. But it's very difficult to say.

Kath - well what can I possibly say? I'm glad she's finally here, though.

Nerwen - as always, she is difficult to read - the same Nerwen as ever. I have the uncomfortable feeling that she's a wolf slipping under my radar, but that is probably because I've got slightly paranoid about her after one certain game... I mean, there is nothing particularly suspicious in her and she makes sense. Maybe I should just watch her more closely.

phantom - he's all over the place, bossing people around and being rather self-centered. It's all normal for him and doesn't have anything to do with his role. He does throw cobblerish comments around, but on the other hand, he could be just trying to avoid getting killed by the wolves or having fun or whatever. He doesn't give me any wolvish vibes, but I don't get it when people keep saying that he's too bold to be a wolf. I don't think he has done anything particularily bold.

Slightly suspicious

Durelin - I agree with her on many points and she does make sense. However, she's having too much fun not to look like a cobbler.

Form - he doesn't even try to look like he's contributing. He also all too happily votes tp right after Shasta. So need I even say aloud that he looks rather cobbleristic? The only thing I really like in him is the way he criticises yesterday's lynch. *smug smile*

Nogrod - like I've said, his early posting yesterDay looked pretty cobbleristic. When people complained about it, he cooled down. A clever cobbler who does not want to lose the game too early? He could be that. Also, some of his arguments seem evilly irrational to me. I don't think he's a wolf though, but I would be less than surprised to find out that he's a cobbler.

Shasta - that guy has been slipping under the radar, and then he goes and makes this rather irrational early vote while he's still able to hang around. He is either a very annoyed innocent, a wolf looking for an excuse to make a safe vote or even a cobbler wishing to add a little to the confusion. I think the two first mentioned options are more probable, though.


Guys, I have a suggestion. Let's stop looking for wolves and start looking for cobblers. I would be far less confused. Seriously, all my even a little serious suspects are suspects of cobblery, and we should preferably lynch wolves. The only ones I even slightly suspect of wolfisness are Shasta, Fea, Nerwen and Gwath, but I don't really suspect any of them enough to be happy with voting them. Maybe I could vote Shasta, but that's it, of them. I'd be tempted to vote one of those I think are cobblers but that would be kind of stupid... argh. I'm glad I still have a lot of time to think about these things and (hopefully) read new posts by everybody.


edit: xed with Gwath, Fea, Dury and Nerwie - yay, action!

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Guys, I have a suggestion. Let's stop looking for wolves

Why? Are we getting close to finding one?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++SHASTA

Because I don't know how to get to the airport, I don't know if her flight will be late, and I don't know how many errands she intends to run before we return. So I don't know when I'll be back.

If I'm back by end of day, I'll read through and post again. I like Day Twos. They're highly educational.

[Durelin]

Both Form and Gwath seem like they're trying to make enemies.

[Kath]

I know that many of you hate it when I do this but as I saw nothing of yesterDay I need to get my thoughts in order which means, yes, a list. Though it's really a 'find the odd things' list so will appear completely biased.

Nog - rather pointless so far, and what's with that 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 list in which everything useful in it could be said in one paragraph making it much easier to read?! Don't know whether he was trying to be warning or inflammatory with that narration quote about the cobblers, the fact that it specifically said it was too dark for them to see each other seemed obvious. My suspicion would be that right now they can't see each other ... but perhaps if they're left alive long enough they will eventually be told who the others are, thus making them a 'better' enemy.

phantom - I am intrigued by the niceness of his first post. But as I'm ill equipped to deal with two Werewolves all on my own, it is currently in my best interest to work with you guys to lynch them. Does that really sound like the phantom we all know?

Durelin - a little bit of stating the obvious.

Eonwe -

Gwath -

Form -

Lalaith -

Groin - says to beware of those who are very loud, after mentioning at the beginning of his post that he is quiet.

Nerwen -

Shasta -

Brinn -

Lommy - 'two wolves are easy to find' is an interesting thing to say, I would have thought the fewer wolves there are the harder they are to find.

Mith -

Nilp -

Greenie -

One thing I will say outside all this. Don't underestimate a Cobbler. Alright, so my experience with them is very different to most as I owe my win in one game to a very impressive Cobbler attack, but that just proves the point. The wolves are the main target it's agreed, but the Cobblers may not be as unthreatening as some people seem to think.

Gah, I have to go out, this is as far as I've got which is why it looks quite so unfinished. I'm at post 60 of Day 1 at the moment, I'll finish it off when I get back.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kath

phantom - I am intrigued by the niceness of his first post. But as I'm ill equipped to deal with two Werewolves all on my own, it is currently in my best interest to work with you guys to lynch them. Does that really sound like the phantom we all know?

Yes. Self centered and arrogant (no offence meant, btw). But anyway, I digress here.

Hello Kath!

*goes into action mode*

OK, where was I?

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I like Day Twos. They're highly educational.

Yes, you get to find out what people think about Day 1. The only problem is that, with no proper lynch, this is more like Day 1.5™ than Day 2.

Edit: Before there was so much x-posting, and now, nothing.