Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Now, talk about seemingly knowing too much... Aganzir, if you were so certain Eönwë was not the wolf (i.e., the game would continue toDay), why did you vote for him? Also, why were you so sure you would be alive toDay?

Because I figured Nogrod would be more dangerous for you, and I trusted Kitanna a bit more than Eönwë. I was not sure of Eönwë's innocence, naturally, but you made me more confident about it at the end of the day, so to say.
I didn't say I was sure I would be alive today. I thought I could well be killed since no one seemed to think I would have attacked Eomer.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I suppose Nogrod's death makes sense. I expected I would be killed, but since I was the one seriously looking at him yesterDay, killing him sets me up for lynching toDay.

And if you had killed Kitanna, it would have pointed to you because she made a case on you and somewhat suspected you anyway. If you had killed me, it would have pointed to you because I think it was pretty clear I would be suspecting you today.
And why do you claim you expected to be killed? Surely there were people who were suspected less than you (like, pretty much everybody else), and a wolf doesn't want to leave clearly innocents around for the last day.
Nog's death makes sense to me because he was generally considered innocent.

I think Kitanna is innocent. I did suspect her pretty heavily earlier, but over the last few days I've been more and more inclined to think her innocent. And I'm also rather sure Rikae is the wolf.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I hope that doesn't mean I'll come back to find you've both voted for me when I couldn't defend myself... (and in that case, I swear, the village loses).

I dare say I'm going to vote for you today. And really, those threats don't work.

And if we're both innocent and Kitanna is laughing at us now... Well, then I guess she deserves the victory.

I'm going to take a quick look at Rikae now and see if there's anything that wasn't in Kit's analysis that I'd like to mention.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm going to take a quick look at Rikae now and see if there's anything that wasn't in Kit's analysis that I'd like to mention.

All right - looking at this again, I've pretty much made up my mind. An innocent wouldn't only look at one person. Aganzir also backs up her suspicion of me, and assertion that Kitanna is innocent, with nothing but saying she's thought it for a while. I'm getting a very gloating feeling off her posts (and have been since she voted Form) and an innocent shouldn't be gloating yet.

Now, I'm getting the impression she doesn't actually care about voting for a wolf, but rather, about getting Kitanna to vote with her.

Still, an innocent in this situation should look at both other people, and I haven't had a look at Kitanna recently. I'll do that before casting my vote. It looks like I'll have to vote first, and if I choose wrong, I lose the game for the village. Pressure? What pressure?

[Rikae]

Now I'm second-guessing myself...

Would Agan come on this strong toDay if she were a wolf? Or would a wolf more likely make a wishy-washy post like Kitanna's and wait until someone else votes (not that Agan has voted yet, either). Certainly, Kitanna's behavior toDay is an example of the easiest way for a wolf to win in a case like this, but I somehow doubt an Agan-wolf would behave similarly.

*tears hair out*

EDIT: Quintuple post! Go me.

[Aganzir]

On day 1 Rikae accuses Kitanna of her vote (which, I agree, was suspicious), but ends up voting for Nerwen herself. I wonder indeed what made her vote for her over her top suspects - the only thing she had posted between Rikae's list and vote was an "I'm back" post (since Rikae xed with her other post). However Rikae's vote tied Mith and Nerwen, both wolves, and I don't know what to make of that. Was Mith or Rikae the one turned on night 3, or had the wolves agreed on suspecting one another? Well, all of us alive suspected Nerwen at some point, and also Boro the wolf was all for voting her on day 2.

Rikae was one of the main contributors in EW's lynching. A perfect case - suspect someone from the beginning, but vote for him also because of being unhepful. That's a sure way to start a bandwagon, against an innocent in this case.

On day 4 Rikae found both Boro and Mith innocent. Other than that, she doesn't speak about them too much.

Originally Posted by Rikae in Shastanalysis

IC. “Nerwen is mostly harmless.... some of us aren't harmless at all.”

Now, it's a minor thing, but somehow the latter addition, knowing Nerwen was a wolf, seems just slightly more likely to come from someone who knew this.

And then she calls my seizing on a single word or phrasing forced?

I think people have got so used to wolf-on-wolf votes that it just makes sense that Rikae said she won't vote for Mith (or Shasta either) on day 4. Somehow Rikae has had the ability to start bandwagons in this game, and her Form bandwagon almost saved Mith. She made a post analysing how Mith and Shasta became the main candidates for that day's lynch, and concluded by saying she can't shake off the feeling there's something fishy. So, both defending a fellow wolf and threatening those who suspect her. She found Kit and Nog the most suspicious, and told us not to discount the possibility that Eomer was the cobbler instead of hunter. I don't see a reason why the real hunter should be lying low and watching how the cobbler pretending to be a known innocent has everybody trusting him. Besides then the cobbler would risk the wolves wasting a kill on him, which is not quite what he wants. But what a better way to make people feel they cannot completely trust a known innocent?

Originally Posted by Rikae

That would be because I think I'm onto a wolf too late in the day to do much about it, and expect that two ordos are being framed. *sigh*

And then she accuses people who followed her vote? Looks like a nice wolf tactic - try to save her fellow by appealing to others to vote for Form, and when Mith ends up being lynched accuse the other Form-voters. Rikae has been good at starting bandwagons but not taking responsibility for them; see for example her post the next day:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sorry, Formendacil - I can only assume from the way Aganzir and Shasta followed my vote yesterDay, one (or both) of them is evil and you are innocent. I did find it odd at the time that they were so eager to follow my vote: I only wished to get my suspicions out in the open and vote accordingly, but didn't really feel I'd "made a case", so to speak, to be acted on that day!

She finds me suspicious because of voting for Form and that "little exchange about grinning", and suggests both Shasta and I are wolves. She's also pretty quick to dismiss the possibility that Form was a wolf - maybe it was easier for her to find him innocent after he had started suspecting her?

Originally Posted by Rikae

If Shasta was not a wolf with Aganzir, why would she have voted for Form when she could have saved Mith more easily, and less conspicuously, by voting for Shasta? And why would Shasta prefer to vote for Form to save himself, instead of for Mith?

Seemingly Shasta just preferred to vote for Form. Maybe because he found Mith innocent? And since Shasta was not a wolf, that thing about me doesn't work, either.

Originally Posted by Rikae

her case aganst Kitanna seems rather forced (especially the "myself" bit) and the make a case, vote, and leave pattern is a tactic I've used myself as a cornered wolf - throwing something out there for the village to chew on (she even encourages us to look into it more) and then dropping out of sight and, hopefully, out of mind.

Like I already said, I had to leave because of RL reasons, and I wouldn't lie about it even if I was a wolf. And by the way, I didn't encourage you to look into my Kitanna case more, but people's interactions with Nerwen and Mith, which I believe might have been useful.

Originally Posted by Rikae

She could simply go after him as an easy way to get herself out of danger, and might even do so as a wolf, but it looks as though she's trying to protect her last packmate by drawing suspicion elsewhere, while making wishy-washy statements about him to cover herself, should he be lynched.

Would Rikae have chosen me to be a wolf in DW if she really thought I would be that apparent?

Then she votes for me after Shasta's reveal - based on that grinning thing. By then it's clear Shasta and I can't be fellow wolves, which was one of the reasons for Rikae to suspect us. And quite honestly, if Shasta was a wolf and knew he would be under much pressure, wouldn't it have been useful if he had come out as the ranger in order to reveal the real one? Say Rikae what she will, it takes a coolheaded ranger to not instantly reveal someone's claim a fake.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog, are you saying that Shasta's revelation should let Aganzir off the hook? Because in your last post, if I recall correctly, you suspected her as well

She seems a bit... I don't know what's a good word, upset? that suddenly others don't seem to suspect me anymore. Her vote for me looks like she was trying to start a bandwagon again, and now, all of a sudden, it doesn't look so likely that I will be lynched.

Originally Posted by Rikae, in response to Boro's claim that he protected Kath

Bummer. I was hoping we'd have a known innocent after all.

It looks like she said that because she couldn't come up with anything else but had to say something. Do you really think the wolves would have been so busy elsewhere that they would have forgotten their known innocent?

On day 8 she says Eomer's death makes me look more innocent - no one else is really suspecting me at that point, and I guess she doesn't want me to suspect her because of suspecting me. She also finds Kitanna suspicious, and has a case on Nog, who hasn't been suspected very much. Yes, it's dangerous not to pay attention to someone this late in the game, but yesterday I couldn't shake off the feeling of a wolf trying to get a dangerous player lynched. She had been suspecting me heavily (though with pretty few reasons), and now that it suited her current case, she was buddying up to me, trying to have me vote for Nogrod. She would have preferred to lynch Nogrod or Kitanna, and leave Eönwë (the most inexperienced player, who therefore might be easier to convince than the older ones) and me (who has been pretty wrong about everyone but Nerwen) alive.

And now today she's suspecting me again. Because Kitanna hasn't really suspected me and she knew she would be dead if she couldn't make her feel uncomfortable about me?

edit: xed with four Rikaes

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Still, it makes sense, if you are a wolf, for you to buddy up to one of us and strongly suspect the other the way you're doing.

It would make sense also for a wolf, but I just can't help feeling pretty confident about your guilt.

You suspected me yesterday - based on what?

Based on a bad feeling, the reasons of which are hopefully explained in my case against you.

Because I suspected you earlier but thought you wouldn't kill Eomer?

You have been a bit too quick to declare people innocent when it seems to suit your interests best throughout the whole game.

Kitanna "deserves" to win if she's a wolf? I daresay not. She has been quite low-profile during the whole game, so if we fail to look at her properly now, shame on us.

Maybe I should have said "I deserve to lose" instead of that "she deserves to win"? Funny that you called my case against her forced when I made it. Yes, I suspected her and don't suspect anymore, and if I have been so wrong in dropping my suspicions, I deserve to lose.
And werewolf is not a matter of life and death, and I doubt other players will get angry even if we lose the game.

I'm getting a very gloating feeling off her posts (and have been since she voted Form) and an innocent shouldn't be gloating yet.

Oh, that's interesting. Care to elaborate?

Now, I'm getting the impression she doesn't actually care about voting for a wolf, but rather, about getting Kitanna to vote with her.

I care about voting for you. Even if Kitanna doesn't and we lose, I can at least take comfort in being right.

Still, an innocent in this situation should look at both other people

I have looked at Kitanna earlier, and after that I've started feeling better and better about her, as you can see if you read my posts from the previous few days.

[Rikae]

Kitanna

#17
IC banter with Boro and Nerwen.

#50
Telling Aganzir IC posts can be useful on day 2 (things hidden in them, hackers flying under radar).

#52
List of suspicions before leaving. Thinks there is a wolf among Agan, Nilp and Form. Finds Nerwen, EW & Sixth moderately suspicious. No one person she feels strongly about.

#54
Votes for Nerwen because she “posts often and says little”.

#62
Answers Nogrod, who said her vote looked forced: “I would rather vote for one who raised my suspicions for even a remote reason on Day 1, than randomly pick a name from a hat.”

#140
Will have to vote early for work reasons.

#164
Asks Shasta if he thinks there's wolf-on-wolf voting so early (re: Kath's vote). Seems to be suspicious of EW's vote for Sixth. Agrees with Boro that Nerwen's posts, even non-IC, have little content. Vote tally. Finds EW, Agan, Boro & Eonwe suspicions.

#167
Eonwe's vote for Mith “too neat and tidy”.Can't see a hacker-Agan basing all her suspicions on Sixth's one post, but maybe a spammer.

#169
Agan's vote for and suspicions of Sixth feel wrong. Votes Agan.

#260
Doesn't have much time to post, looks like EW was dropped as dead weight, Rikae & Eonwe's votes unsurprising, will look at Eonwe voters.

#289
Analyis of Nerwen. Thinks her connection to Agan makes Agan look innocent, Nilp, Eonwe or Form may have been a wolf with Nerwen.

#315
Looking at Eonwe voters. Finds Eonwe suspicious, hasn't totally dropped suspicions of Agan but thinks she is more likely the cobbler than a wolf, Of Shasta and Eomer, Eomer more suspicious.

#321
Votes for Eonwe.

#357
Wants to look at Durelin's posts. Durelin aybe might have dreamt of Nogrod or Mith.

#361
Looks at Durelin, finds Mith suspicious based on it (Mith a constant in Durelin's suspicions).

#366
Votes for Mith. Shasta looks wolvish too.

#515
Finds Shasta highly suspicious, Agan moderately suspicious, votes for Shasta.

#608
Votes for Boro. Suggests looking at Eonwe toMorrow.

#609
Suggests Boro acted alone to take out the ranger, not to protect his partner.

#635
We can't tell what Eomer or the wolf were thinking. Still wants to look at Eonwe.

#637
Thinks Eonwe's playing style changed and he might be the new wolf (agreeing with Nogrod).

#638
Has to look at Rikae, unsure about Agan, thinks Nogrod innocent.

#640
Wonders why Rikae voted for Nerwen and not someone on red list (Kitanna or EW). There are things that point to my guilt and innocence. Thinks it's suspicious that I dropped my suspicions of Form.

I think I should answer this now. I dropped my suspicions toward Form because the way Shasta and Aganzir followed my vote suddenly and with little apparent reason, coupled with Mith's wolfishness, made the two of them look far worse than anything Form had done made him look, and if a wolf voted Form to save Mith, it stands to reason Form would be innocent. Also, regarding Nerwen – I don't make lists to mechanically follow them. She looked worst to me at the point when I voted (I don't remember my thought process exactly, it's been too long, but I put my reasons in my vote-post).

#641
Votes Eonwe, finds me most suspicious of the remaining people.

#665
Unsure about Agan, wants to look at her before voting.

Conclusion:
Kitanna was more helpful, and less suspicious, than I initially thought. Her case against Mith speaks in her favor, since Durelin's posts might not have resulted in Mith's lynching without it. Her quietness also seems mostly due to RL... I wouldn't declare her certainly innocent under other circumstances, but compared to Aganzir, she is the more innocent looking of the two.

I see Aganzir posted while I was writing this in another window, so I'll address that in a moment.

[Aganzir]

I have to leave - I think I will be able to come back, but I'm not perfectly sure, so I rather vote now.

++ Rikae

You are a fighter and good at that, but it would take a confession from Kitanna to make me change my mind.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

On day 1 Rikae accuses Kitanna of her vote (which, I agree, was suspicious), but ends up voting for Nerwen herself. I wonder indeed what made her vote for her over her top suspects - the only thing she had posted between Rikae's list and vote was an "I'm back" post (since Rikae xed with her other post). However Rikae's vote tied Mith and Nerwen, both wolves, and I don't know what to make of that. Was Mith or Rikae the one turned on night 3, or had the wolves agreed on suspecting one another? Well, all of us alive suspected Nerwen at some point, and also Boro the wolf was all for voting her on day 2.

So basically, I voted for a wolf, but that doesn't make me look more innocent. OK, fair enough, but it also doesn't make me look more guilty.
And, as I said to Kitanna, I don't make lists so I can follow them like a robot. I don't remember exactly, but I think I had reflected more on the matter at that point, and thought Nerwen looked worse.because of her Nilp/Form/Agan thing.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Rikae was one of the main contributors in EW's lynching. A perfect case - suspect someone from the beginning, but vote for him also because of being unhepful. That's a sure way to start a bandwagon, against an innocent in this case.

I made a case against the best suspect I had at the time. I can't control who follows me. It's funny you talk about me starting bandwagons, though, when you've participated in one of "my bandwagons" yourself.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

On day 4 Rikae found both Boro and Mith innocent. Other than that, she doesn't speak about them too much.

At the time, I thought the most suspicious thing going on was the way people were narrowing the choices based on Durelin's posts, which didn't seem to reveal much to me.
Any time too many people agree, I tend to suspect there's conspiracy involved.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And then she calls my seizing on a single word or phrasing forced?

*shrug*
I said it was minor.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think people have got so used to wolf-on-wolf votes that it just makes sense that Rikae said she won't vote for Mith (or Shasta either) on day 4.

I didn't say "I won't vote for Mith (or Shasta either)." I said I didn't like the choices narrowed to them and probably wouldn't vote for either because the narrowing of the field itself looked suspicious.
I don't see what this has to do with wolf-on-wolf votes.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Somehow Rikae has had the ability to start bandwagons in this game, and her Form bandwagon almost saved Mith.

Thanks to you and the cobbler...
Do you honestly think I knew, or intended, that it would become a bandwagon? I was looking for Form's reaction. Why should other people follow my gut feelings (unless those other people are wolves trying to save a fellow)?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

She made a post analysing how Mith and Shasta became the main candidates for that day's lynch, and concluded by saying she can't shake off the feeling there's something fishy. So, both defending a fellow wolf and threatening those who suspect her.

Well, that kind of goes with the territory, doesn't it? If some people don't look suspicious to one, those who suspect them appear to have little reason, and therefore look suspicious themselves.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

She found Kit and Nog the most suspicious, and told us not to discount the possibility that Eomer was the cobbler instead of hunter. I don't see a reason why the real hunter should be lying low and watching how the cobbler pretending to be a known innocent has everybody trusting him. Besides then the cobbler would risk the wolves wasting a kill on him, which is not quite what he wants. But what a better way to make people feel they cannot completely trust a known innocent?

I suppose you're right about that. I didn't think of that at the time. As I've said, I get nervous when too many people agree. Wolves tend to be hesitant about killing hunters, anyway.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And then she accuses people who followed her vote?

Absolutely, as I've explained many, many times. If I recall correctly, you still haven't given a reason (besides "feeling") that you helped tie Form with Mith. I cast the first vote for Form and had no reason to think anyone would follow it. After all, I didn't exactly "make a case" against him. I had a hunch, and wanted to see how he'd act under pressure.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Looks like a nice wolf tactic - try to save her fellow by appealing to others to vote for Form, and when Mith ends up being lynched accuse the other Form-voters. Rikae has been good at starting bandwagons but not taking responsibility for them; see for example her post the next day:

An initial vote, without even an analysis, is not "starting a bandwagon", however you slice it. I am not psychic.
As for taking responsibility, I apologized. What else do you want? That I continue suspecting Form even though the events at the day's end and over night have made him look innocent (as I just explained in my post to Kitanna)?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

She finds me suspicious because of voting for Form and that "little exchange about grinning",

That little exchange with the spammer, which is one of the examples of the "gloating" I mentioned earlier.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

and suggests both Shasta and I are wolves. She's also pretty quick to dismiss the possibility that Form was a wolf - maybe it was easier for her to find him innocent after he had started suspecting her?

Actually, I tend to have a bad habit of finding people guilty when they start suspecting me. It was because (for the 4th time), Mith was a wolf, Sally the spammer, and you, Sally and Shasta followed my vote out of the blue and without explanation.
If I had actually made a case aganst Form, or if you or somebody else had, if your votes had made sense and not come out of the blue, if they hadn't almost saved a wolf, I wouldn't find them suspicious.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Seemingly Shasta just preferred to vote for Form. Maybe because he found Mith innocent? And since Shasta was not a wolf, that thing about me doesn't work, either.

Hindsight's 20/20, isn't it? Obviously Shasta voted for Form innocently, as he was innocent, but that was hardly obvious at the time.
Your being a wolf doesn't depend on Shasta being a wolf (especially not now). Your vote was still suspicious.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Like I already said, I had to leave because of RL reasons, and I wouldn't lie about it even if I was a wolf. And by the way, I didn't encourage you to look into my Kitanna case more, but people's interactions with Nerwen and Mith, which I believe might have been useful.

I wouldn't lie about RL reasons either. The most I would say is "I'm leaving, I'll be back later". Just to clear that up, since you seem to have been insinuating, since I suspected you first, that I claimed I would.
You encouraged us, if I recall correctly, to look into "it" more after making a case against Kitanna.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Would Rikae have chosen me to be a wolf in DW if she really thought I would be that apparent?

If I thought everything apparent to me was apparent to everyone, I wouldn't bother posting at all.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Then she votes for me after Shasta's reveal - based on that grinning thing. By then it's clear Shasta and I can't be fellow wolves, which was one of the reasons for Rikae to suspect us. And quite honestly, if Shasta was a wolf and knew he would be under much pressure, wouldn't it have been useful if he had come out as the ranger in order to reveal the real one? Say Rikae what she will, it takes a coolheaded ranger to not instantly reveal someone's claim a fake.

Hm? So when one of my two top suspects revealed as a ranger, I was supposed to vote for him rather than for the other one? Sure, gifted reveals can be false, but false gifteds will eventually be found - one doesn't generally lynch a newly revealed gifted.
I already suspected you more than Shasta after my analysis of him, anyway.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

She seems a bit... I don't know what's a good word, upset? that suddenly others don't seem to suspect me anymore. Her vote for me looks like she was trying to start a bandwagon again, and now, all of a sudden, it doesn't look so likely that I will be lynched.

You were the most wolfish person in sight. Of course I wanted to lynch you.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It looks like she said that because she couldn't come up with anything else but had to say something. Do you really think the wolves would have been so busy elsewhere that they would have forgotten their known innocent?

It looks like you're saying that because you can't come up with anything else. It was what I was thinking at the time. Why shouldn't I say it? Why should I say anything?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

On day 8 she says Eomer's death makes me look more innocent - no one else is really suspecting me at that point, and I guess she doesn't want me to suspect her because of suspecting me.

Ha. I'm not afraid of you (sorry if that hurts your pride).
I didn't want to lynch an innocent, and Eomer's death did make you look innocent (now that I'm nearly certain you're a wolf, I have to compliment you on the boldness of that move).

Originally Posted by Aganzir

She also finds Kitanna suspicious, and has a case on Nog, who hasn't been suspected very much. Yes, it's dangerous not to pay attention to someone this late in the game, but yesterday I couldn't shake off the feeling of a wolf trying to get a dangerous player lynched.

Anyone who makes a case against Nogrod is called that. Comes with the territory. Leaving Nogrod unlooked at at that point in the game would have been crazy.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

She had been suspecting me heavily (though with pretty few reasons), and now that it suited her current case, she was buddying up to me, trying to have me vote for Nogrod.

Actually, I had more reasons to suspect you than I usually have to suspect anyone in any game. I really thought yesterDay you were unlikely to be a wolf, but obviously I was wrong.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

She would have preferred to lynch Nogrod or Kitanna, and leave Eönwë (the most inexperienced player, who therefore might be easier to convince than the older ones) and me (who has been pretty wrong about everyone but Nerwen) alive.

I also thought Eonwe was unlikely to be a wolf, for reasons I gave. You apparently thought so too, but voted for him anyway - something you still haven't adequately explained.
With four people to choose from and previous events making two look innocentish, I'm going to look more at the remaining two - surprise surprise.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And now today she's suspecting me again. Because Kitanna hasn't really suspected me and she knew she would be dead if she couldn't make her feel uncomfortable about me?

edit: xed with four Rikaes

Um, I just took a look at Kitanna and it seems she's been suspecting you for some time, actually.
I can't believe you accuse me of trying to buddy up to Kitanna.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Based on a bad feeling, the reasons of which are hopefully explained in my case against you.

Nope, I'm afraid it wasn't. The only case you've made is that my reasoning has not always been perfect and I am not psychic.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I care about voting for you. Even if Kitanna doesn't and we lose, I can at least take comfort in being right.

In that case, you will lose, but at least you can take comfort in being the last wolf standing.

I think I'll also make note of the fact that it's interesting, to say the least, that Aganzir is so certain about me yet still hasn't cast her vote.

Well, it's up to you now, Kitanna. Choose well.

++Aganzir

EDIT: X'd with Aganzir, obviously.

[Kitanna]

++ Aganzir

[Rikae]

Which of you is a wolf? I've got to leave for work right now and can't stand the suspense!

[Rikae]

Bah. Can't be late for work... I suppose Kit would probably have gloated if she was...

[Kitanna]

I am, but I'm not particularly interested in gloating.