Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Rikae]

I'm exhausted - nine hours at work - just a few quick thoughs on toDay for the moment, though:
First:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Because attacking Shasta in the night would have been pretty risky - a missed kill this late in the game when there are so few of us left is not what the wolves want.

Worse than losing one of the two remaining wolves? Not to most wolves, I would think.

I do think Eomer's death makes Aganzir look more innocent.

Second:
I don't like Kitanna's post #635 - too much stating the obvious and too much "we can't tell anything". Sinister when Eomer's death points to her, among others.
Second, I don't like her vote. Her suspicions toward Eonwe don't seem particularly well formed, and seem to have come along, perhaps, in response to Nogrod.

[Rikae]

An hour ago, I thought I'd be too exhausted to participate, so I told Mac to help me out and do a quick Nogrod-analysis (since nobody seems to actually suspect him at all, which is odd). Now that he has finished it, I don't want to waste his effort and would still like to post it. Mac would like to remark that he has a little bit of a history to suspect Nogrod, but he really tried to be objective. He's not sure whether he succeeded, though.

Day One: He doesn’t seem to make any major points on day one, but on the first day, that’s nothing to be worried about. I noticed that he mostly criticised a few votes, which is a little convenient, because people who have voted are unlikely to return. It’s an easy way to go through day one without stepping on the feet of anybody who could step back.

Day Two: As I understand, Nogrod has been short on time up to this point? Anyway, I’m starting to wonder about the lack of real points in his posts. In #224 he gives us some on Kitanna, but that’s already it. I would expect Nogrod to try harder to read sense into the situation. In #168 he defends Nerwen rather vehemently, which raised an eyebrow of mine.

Now it’s getting more interesting, since it’s possible he was only turned into a wolf now (or Mith was just turned into a wolf).

Day Three: #258 is a bit suspicious to me: he makes a quite definite statement about what a wolf would do and, of course, what he did himself so far is unequal to that. He then builds up his suspicion on Mithalwen, which looks genuine at this point. Nothing more to say about this day.

Day Four: On this day his suspicion of Mith is starting to look fishy. He repeats to be certain about Mith several times, without giving any new input. Look at #356 and #359, for example. I’m undecided whether the chat between him and Mith that follows could be “wolf-on-wolf chat” or not. Later, he keeps on suspecting Mith strongly, but look at #408 as an example on how unaggressively he does this, mentioning his top suspect somewhere in the middle among his lesser ones. The way he handles it sounds like “I’m absolutely certain about Mith, but if you want to lynch someone else, oh well”. This really looks wolvish to me, because in hindsight he can claim to always have suspected Mith, but at the same time, he did not do much to actually get Mith lynched.
Another thing I noticed is that, after Eomer revealed, he kept on talking about the possibility of the “real hunter” challenging him. Is it just me, or does this look like a wolf hinting to the cobbler to challenge Eomer? (#378, #432)

Other than that, what he did that day looks quite innocent.

Day Five: He complains about the voting, which is a little fake, since he could have tried to alter the outcome earlier by urging a few people to vote for Mithalwen. I’d say that’s a sensible thing to do if your best suspect is on the verge of being lynched.
When Shasta and Boro came forward, he takes the side of Boromir. But then, many did.

I’m puzzled by how confused Nogrod is about his other suspicions. Is this genuine or a wolf trying to look confused in order to not have to come up with anything? In any case, it’s a bit untypical for him.

Day Six: I’m wondering why people think Nogrod to be so innocent-looking this day. He urges people to give their thoughts on everybody and keep on giving input, but then he fails to do so himself. All day long, he only agrees with what other people (Agan, especially) said. The only person he attacks a little is Eonwe, the least experienced villager left (no offenses here, Eonwe). However, his only real point against him - at this point! - is his DayOne behaviour. #615 is something a wolf would post to appear helpful without giving opinions of his own. I’m really sorry if I’m wrong about this, but, as I felt before, Nogrod doesn’t appear to be really interested in reading sense into the situation.

Day Seven: Continues going after Eonwe and does an analysis of Eomer, leading him to drop prior suspicions of Aganzir. Not much to say.

[Rikae]

Another thing:
It seems to me that it's more likely Boromir would have sacrificed himself like he did if his fellow wolf was an experienced one (because otherwise he would have little hope s/he could survive to the end as a lone wolf). That makes Eonwe look more inncoentish to me...

[Eönwë]

OK, I don't have much time. I vote:

++Kitanna

Because something's not quite right about her.

[Rikae]

Agan, would you consider voting for Nogrod? I think I might slightly prefer him to Kitanna, although I also suspect her.

[Eönwë]

There's a plot somewhere here to get my lynched! (wait, no)

Good night, people.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Another thing:
It seems to me that it's more likely Boromir would have sacrificed himself like he did if his fellow wolf was an experienced one (because otherwise he would have little hope s/he could survive to the end as a lone wolf).

I agree with you here.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Agan, would you consider voting for Nogrod? I think I might slightly prefer him to Kitanna, although I also suspect her.

Aiee! I would. I suspect everyone now, at least to some extent, so yes - I'm considering voting for Nogrod, too.

It's two votes for Eönwë and one for Kitanna now. So we could either lynch Eönwë or Kitanna, or tie Eönwë and Nogrod and let the dice decide for us.

But I've been pretty much suspecting Rikae for some time, and I really don't know.

I really wonder, though, if wolfish Nogrod would have defended Nerwen as much as he did - after all, he's known for his love to sacrifice his fellows. His certainty about Mith is something I noticed myself and found strange, too. But otherwise I don't really know. You have good points about him, I think I had a few good points about Eönwë, too, and Kitanna had some good points about you (although I could have added there some more ).

I'm quite torn right now.

And now that no one else is seemingly suspecting me, you, Rikae, drop your suspicions because Eomer's death might point to my innocence, and ask me if I would vote how you like?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And now that no one else is seemingly suspecting me, you, Rikae, drop your suspicions because Eomer's death might point to my innocence, and ask me if I would vote how you like?

Yes, I lowered my suspicion level on you because Eomer's death indicates you are probably innocent.
If you're innocent, I need your help in lynching a wolf, obviously, since we're so few.
If I cared who anyone else suspected or didn't suspect, I'd just vote Eonwe and be done with it.

[Aganzir]

No, I don't think I would vote for Nogrod today.

If Eönwë is not the wolf, it is (obviously) one of the more experienced players. Now Rikae is trying to get possibly the strongest, or at least one of the most persuasive, players lynched. Yes, Nogrod might be a wolf, but so might Rikae. Somehow I don't feel happy about this.

And maybe it's just me, but I don't like how so many changed their opinions about me after Eomer's death - Nogrod and Rikae, mainly. Unfortunately both of them cannot be wolves. Besides Rikae looks all too much like she's now trying to buddy up to me.

Argh.

Or then I should just vote for Nogrod and leave it to the dice.