Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Eönwë]

Wow. I never thought that would happen. And the cobbler being killed.

There eally have been too many RL deaths so far.


Ps. This is a quiet day.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Aganzir and Shasta look very evil and wolvish to me.

As has been pointed out, Shasta showed no suspicion of Formendacil at any stage. He even showed willingness to conspire with him to lynch Nogrod. Then he votes Formendacil right at the end. This appears to have been a desperate attempt at an unlikely save for Mithalwen.

Aganzir, though, I had not suspected at all until just now, when I read the events of Day 4 more carefully. I have some references.

p400: Aganzir defends Shasta. She really, really thinks he's no wolf.

p445: ''I'll eat my hat with feathers and all if neither Mith nor Nog is a wolf, and today I'd prefer trying Nog''

Yet she chose not to gain the certainty, and voted Formendacil.

p464: Decides that our chances are better with Form than with Mith. Simply because another candidate has 2 votes, she is deciding not to lynch Mith or Nogrod, and thus achieve certainty.

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There's also one more thing about Shasta, from quite a while ago:

p144:

Suspicious: Eomer, Eonwe

Sort-Of Suspicious: Kath, Sally, Elf-warrior

Mediocre: Everyone not mentioned above or below this line -----------------------

Not-So Suspicious: Nogrod

Not Suspicious: Mith, Nerwen

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Mith and Nerwen, eh?

[Aganzir]

I think Kitanna could be a wolf.

Her first post looks forced. I don't know... I guess I first seized on it because it reminds me so much of how a wolfish me could post on day 1.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Sometimes in the nothing the most is said.

I fail to see what you are referring to. Your response to Nerwen meets the criteria of communicating a little with a fellow wolf so as not to look like team members.

On day 1 she thought the A/N/F brawl brought up by Nerwen was moderately suspicious, but at the same time she found Nerwen herself moderately suspicious, too. She was inclined to think there was one or two hackers among us three (me, Nilp and Form, that is), and I really fail to see why. If we have talked to one another on day 1, why on earth does it make us hackers? She was suspicious also of EW who was quick to jump to his own defense, and Sixth, based on gut feeling, who advocated voting for Nerwen, probably IC.
Then she voted for Nerwen because she posted often but sayid little. In her defense I must say, though, that her vote post didn't look like she was trying to discourage others to vote for Nerwen, although she wasn't trying to encourage voting for her either.

I don't really know why a hacker would vote a fellow hacker as early as on day 1. Of course it would be a good plan since few would believe they actually did it, but it's risky as well. And Kitanna has been pretty suspicious even before the new wolf was turned (actually she's been less suspicious after that).
Except... On day 2 she asks Shasta (who was talking about Kath) if he thinks there would be wolf-on-wolf votes so early. The improbability of wolf-on-wolves on day 1 should make Kitanna look more innocent if/when Nerwen was to be revealed a wolf.

Originally Posted by Kit

A worrying truth indeed. Nerwen's posts are one liners, ICs, with an occasional post that clarifies or half-heatedly accuses.

Would a wolf continue suspecting her, especially as there are others who do it also?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Most suspicious
Eonwe- Voted not long after Eomer for Mith based on her vote for Sally who was the first to vote for Sixth
Boro- Next vote for Sixth
Elf-warrior- Third vote for Sixth
Agan-Tied Eonwe and Sixth, though a tie doesn't result in a double-lynch a tie remains a tie. If nothing else it confuses and muddles things especially close to deadline.
This is based purely on when and how they voted for, not their reasoning behind it.

Agan & Eonwe's look the most suspicious to me based on timing. Though I'm going to read through their posts before deciding fully how I feel about either.

Then there's this, the most suspicious of the "bandwagoners". Next vote for someone? Third vote for someone? Ties someone? Ties are confusing? What on earth is suspicious about that? Honestly, I can't see that as innocent reasoning.
I think it was Nog who had a good point that that's an easy way to add pressure on those who are suspected a little already (Eönwë and me, mainly).
Eönwë is suspicious because his vote is so neat and tidy, comes out of the blue and right after Eomer's vote. And votes for Mith, mind you.
I am suspicious because I accused Sixth of joking suspicions (which, as I already explained, weren't apparently such), I seemed to have a case on Nerwen rather than Sixth, if Sixth was a wof he would (in Kit's opinion) have returned instead of disappearing, and I base my case on Sixth's only post (what did other Sixth-voters base their cases on, then?).

On day 2 she votes for me, despite feeling more confident in mischief on Nerwen's part than when voting for her the previous day, but not feeling confident enough. My suspicions (against Sixth) feel wrong and don't make sense. Or was it just because I was going after Nerwen that day myself?

I have no idea about Shasta anymore - good points were brought up about his yesterday behaviour, so I will treat Shasta as a possible wolf now in relation to Kit.

On day 3 Kitanna comments on Eomer/Shasta row, saying neither of them smells like a rose, but she finds Eomer slightly stranger-looking and explains it "Simply because of my, as he called it, colorful WW past with him."
Later she wonders if Shasta and Eomer could have staged their row. Maybe, and if not, Eomer looks worse to her. Because of their colourful past, and his behaviour raises her eyebrow. Now, if Shasta was turned on night 3, this makes Kitanna look worse. She tries not to defend Shasta, but doesn't really accuse Eomer either - it's rather that she adds her vote for the case "look at Eomer before you look at Shasta".
She's also inclined to vote for Eönwë, who's "up to no good", and later votes for him. Eönwë went after Mith.

Originally Posted by Kit

I'd like to look at Durelin's posts myself to see what I can draw from this theory.

This worries me. That myself. "I want to go through Durelin's posts and see that nothing that incriminates my fellows too much is revealed!"

Originally Posted by Kit

If she did dream of Nogrod as a hacker it would make sense why she never voted or cast "damning" evidence onto him. That would have ended her life sooner or drawn her out so she had to reveal her role before she was ready.

I'm pretty sure Nog isn't a hacker now... And Kit just explains how it's possible that Dur found Nog a hacker although she didn't cast "damning" evidence onto him.

She is inclined to believe, though, that Durelin dreamed or was planning to dream of Mithwolf, which caused her death. But if the wolves thought it likely that the seer had dreamed of one of them, and especially if that one was Mith, they could well have decided to sacrifice her in order for others to look better.
Or then she wanted to go through Durelin's posts herself so as to be among the first to suspect that she dreamt of Mithwolf, and therefore look better.

Kit votes for Mith. In response to Eomer's wondering why he wasn't killed she says it points at Shasta being a wolf. But, in my opinion, it can also point at wolves being afraid of Eomer and wanting to frame Shasta.

**

I won't have time to go through Form's posts, at least not to this extent, today. I'll have to leave in less than an hour and won't probably have a chance to come back.

Anyway, right now Kitanna is my top suspect. Though I have been so wrong about everyone that I don't really know how much I should trust my judgement anymore.

Next I'm planning to go back to day 1 and see if I could find at least some innocents and hopefully also a wolf given their interaction with Nerwen and Mith. I dare a guess that Mith was a wolf from the beginning.

[Boromir88]

Well, well... If Boro is still alive after a Day or two I say you people should lynch him... Just an idea...~Nogrod

I hate when people say this, because it's just an easy way to set someone up if they're still alive. It's like saying "If Boro isn't dead by Night 6 he's a wolf, because the wolves wouldn't leave an innocent Boro alive for that long." Very clever way of setting someone up, and coming from you Nogrod?

I want to look at the last couple days of posts between Nogrod and Mith. Nogrod is not shy of lynching a fellow wolf if he thinks it will benefit him, and Mith isn't shy of sacrficing herself if she thinks she's dead meat.

I highly suspect a wolf in the Formendacil bandwagon.

Rikae
Sally
Agan
Shasta

It's interesting that sally voted for to make it a 3-way tie between Mith, Shasta, and Form. What does this say about Form and Shasta? Form said he feels ashamed by using the cobbler to argue his own innocence, but this could reveal something. I would say without question sally believed Mith was a wolf, and why she's saved Mith (or tried to) in her voting. But did she also think Shasta was a wolf too? If she's trying to save Mith and thinks Shasta is innocent wouldn't she vote Shasta? Maybe she thought both were wolves and she was trying to save both? Or maybe being the cobbler she just wanted to have a 3-way tie to mess things up even more.

I also think that if one wolf is trying to save their buddy, then the last wolf is trying to be the one who survives and tries votes for Mith, trying to look innocent. This would point to Kitanna, Eonwe, Nogrod, and Form.

edit: crossed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mith, day 1

Anyway can't decide about Kitanna & Nerwen and Form .. but Sally's vote just seems a bit too parasitic... at least Kitanna and Form stuck their heads above the parapet.

I don't know if this means she couldn't decide which one of them to vote or that she couldn't decide what to think of them. But if she was planning to vote for one of them, I think the wolves could have had a plan that they would accuse one another on day 1, and therefore also Kitanna's vote for Nerwen doesn't necessarily speak for her innocence.

Eönwë suspected Nerwen to some extent for not doing anything useful and voted for Mith:

Because of the way she posts, as if she's hiding behind hersef being IC but not at the same time. Hard to explain what I mean. Also, her attitude seems slightrly suspicious

Eomer and Nog kept going after Mith for long. Although Nogwolf is capable of killing his fellows, I'm not sure if he would have started it already on day 1.

Originally Posted by Shasta

In fact, Eomer's been suspicious of Mith since before her vote (#64). Hmm...

Why that hmm? What were you thinking?

Like Eomer said already, Shasta found both Nerwen and Mith innocent.

Ok, I don't have time to do more but I post what little I have managed to gather by now. It would be lovely if someone else could check the rest.

Sorry to be of little use today but RL calls.

++ Kitanna

If you decide to lynch me, I hope you will at least consider her later.

Oh and I forgot to comment on this in my previous post.

Originally Posted by Form

Mind you, I hardly expect to get away scot-free today

Why? I think the fact that you were tried to lynch instead of Mith should make you look more innocent and us who voted for you suspicious? Or is it just that a wolf always thinks he's suspected more than he really is?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not sure both Shasta and Aganzir would have voted Formendacil at the end (were they both wolves). I'm thinking only one is. Actually, that's a good spot Agan; I remember Shasta defending Mith there. I must say, though, that your case against Kitanna does not convince me. It seems a bit too ... constructed, if you like.

[Rikae]

I'm leaning toward thinking Aganzir more wolfish than Shasta. Looking at Shasta yesterDay already made me more inclined to forgive his odd behavior, but Aganzir's vote really seems to have come out of nowhere. Her behavior toDay seems very much like a typical wolf who is under some pressure - her case aganst Kitanna seems rather forced (especially the "myself" bit) and the make a case, vote, and leave pattern is a tactic I've used myself as a cornered wolf - throwing something out there for the village to chew on (she even encourages us to look into it more) and then dropping out of sight and, hopefully, out of mind.
Also, the way she deals with Shasta toDay is so ambiguous, it really has me thinking even more they may be wolves together. She could simply go after him as an easy way to get herself out of danger, and might even do so as a wolf, but it looks as though she's trying to protect her last packmate by drawing suspicion elsewhere, while making wishy-washy statements about him to cover herself, should he be lynched.

[Nogrod]

I'm just a bit concerned about you Boro... You seem to be the only one around who has not been suspected the whole game and you live still. Also I'm pretty much positive you would love to pay me back the one game I managed to fool you nicely and I'm in no way wishing it to take place in this game...

But the actual reason that made me say it aloud yesterDay was your amazing turn-around vote for Shasta - and the reason given ("I don't think I would be able to take another day of Shasta and Eomer battling.") just felt bad. I understand you were at least partially joking there but somehow the fact you made that kind of joke there worries me as much. You had talked of lynching Mith all Day and come forwards with reasons for it and then in the tight spot you try to get her off the hook...

Also, were you an innocent I'd think you would have commented the situation unfolding after your vote - and the ill consequences it had of making it possible neither Mith or Shasta would be lynched - but you stayed away. I somehow feel bad about that too.


But don't you worry. I think I may have even better candidates toDay and I'd need to really look at your posting and actions before getting confident in anything like a case on you.


As I tend to agree with Rikae on Agan's case on Kitanna being more a forced reaction of a wolf than a genuine trial of finding one I'd be willing to look at her more closely - and Shasta once more - toDay. Her grin in the end of yesterDay just gives me creeps.

And yes, Boro has been a staunch defender of Aganzir... hmm...

[Kitanna]

This, unfortunately, is my only post today (work destroys all )
And because of that I was limited to looking at the end of yesterday and today's posts.

Highly Suspicious - Shasta
He tied Form and Mith. If he was looking to be self-preserving it would have been easier to vote Mith ahead than create another tie. When he voted Mith, was at four votes and Form and himself were at three each. That seems like cobbler behavior, but since the cobbler is now dead and gone...
He also tries to make a case against Nogrod on the grounds of indecision.

Pretty simply, it seemed to be that both you and Form were extremely indecisive on who to vote for, saying "well, that person seems suspicious, but then so does that person, but I'm not saying that person's innocent either..." but then suddenly Form has two votes and is in danger of being lynched; immediately both you and Form vote for Mith.

Form's vote was pretty self-preserving and Nogrod had long suspected Mith of wolvery. I don't see Shasta having much of a case here.

Moderately Suspicious - Agan
I have suspected Agan of being the cobbler, but even though the cobbler is dead I still hold onto some suspicion. I don't think Shasta and Agan are both wolves that participated in the Form bandwagon. If one is innocent, then I believe the other is guilty.

Not Very Suspicious - Nogrod, Eonwe
I have a nagging feeling about Nogrod. He looks more innocent to me, but I'm not one to ignore gut feelings because they've been right from time to time.
For Eonwe I'm still holding some suspicions I've had for a while. They've only lessened because I have other people to worry about.

Not Suspicious - Eomer, Form
Since the cobbler is dead I have no reason to doubt his claim as Hunter.
I have never really suspected Form, but the bandwagon against him seemed like an attempt to ease pressure off a wolf onto an innocent. Rikae's vote was no surprise. I'm unsure what to think about Agan's. But Shasta's didn't seem right to me.

Unsure - Boro, Rikae
I haven't been able to form a solid opinion of either since the game started.

++ Shasta