Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Boromir88]

Formen, I am frustrated by not being able to be on-line and contribute. Plain and simple, frustrated, make of that what you will.

Most suspicious
Eonwe- Voted not long after Eomer for Mith based on her vote for Sally who was the first to vote for Sixth
Boro- Next vote for Sixth
Elf-warrior- Third vote for Sixth
Agan-Tied Eonwe and Sixth, though a tie doesn't result in a double-lynch a tie remains a tie. If nothing else it confuses and muddles things especially close to deadline.
This is based purely on when and how they voted for, not their reasoning behind it.~Kitanna

Why are the bandwagoners the one's who are most suspicious? It is bandwagoning which causes us to win. We latch onto the ideas we think sound reasonable and go with it.

The one's to be wary of are the bold wolves who will lead a bandwagon against somebody; like Nogrod. Or the bandwagoners who jump on and only repeat what's already been said (the crafty ones will put it in different words to make it look like they came up with something). Which is why I don't buy into Eonwe's vote for Mith as being a bandwagoning wolf, or Mith's jump on sally for voting for the Sixth.

My point is the hackers will play into our hands, if all day long everyone is talking about who's jumping on and bandwagoning, the hackers are going to avoid bandwagoning and stay out of suspicion. I think we should play closer attention to those who tried to spread out the votes more and avoid falling under the "bandwagoner" category.

Like yesterDay I'm not buying this Nerwen is a wolf -argument unless it has more to it (brought there by myself or someone else). She looks more innocent and helpful than many around here.~Nogrod

Ok, let me try to explain it to you then. You say Nerwen has looked to be helpful, I say don't let looks deceive you. Yesterday, it looked like Nerwen was an easy wolf target, because of her headache causing IC posts. However, today she's kept up the same act as yesterday...posting frequently, but not saying much or being pretty vague (albeit she has mostly stopped the chatspeak talk).

It's this today that has bugged me:

Maybe I'm prejudiced here, Aganzir, but your activity yesterDay gives me a nasty impression of shopping around for someone to lynch.

On the other hand, at least you didn't vote "at random" or giving IC reasons, unlike some people I could mention.

She strongly goes after Agan, and then half-heartedly defends Agan's vote. I'm not sure how Agan "shopped around for someone to lynch," without knowing anything that's what we have to do. I can get too narrow-minded, it's good to have people who want to look at all possibilities, all situations. That makes Agan look like she's shopping around for someone to lynch but that doesn't make Agan an evil hacker. That makes her look innocent trying to come up with an answer.

Then it's the slight defense, well Agan's vote wasn't for IC reasons, that looks like a fake defense.

Which reminds me of what I was going to say about Formendacil's vote. Tis an odd vote, but don't know if it is the vote of a hacker. I do remember my first time in a village with Formen jumping on him for making an IC vote, and he turned out to be a wolf. I also remember the next time I was in a village with Formen he made an IC vote, I jumped on him again, that time he was innocent. I have a sense that's Formen's style on Day 1, it doesn't mean he isn't a hacker, but his IC vote for Nogrod alone does not make him look like one.

Edit: crossed with everything since Eomer's 7:51 post

[THE Ka]

Personally, I think Eonwe’s vote appearing right after Eomer’s is probably a result turned in favour of safety. More than likely he was going over his final thoughts on his top suspects, wrote the post and voted. After going through the heat of trying to make a good point on the first day (which, everyone wants to do), noticed Eomer’s vote several minutes before. It appears like bandwagoning, but it simply could be a result of posting and the rate of your post appearing where and when in a thread. Similar to how Durelin or my vote-post appears in the middle of the Sixth bandwagon.
When you’re busy in your own little world of indecision, you don’t pay attention to the average rate of posting between votes, or at least I don’t. It’s like doing calculus when you’re falling off a cliff.

Hmm, maybe I’m just taking too much pity than I should, but in all rationality it could simply be a stroke of luck for his vote.
Whether he is a wolf or not, it both save him and cast suspicion on his earlier posts as well.

Mith I don’t really have a complete opinion on. If she were feeling a bit better (sorry to hear about the summer cold) she probably could post more to clarify her opinions toDay, vs. her pattern from yesterDay. I’ve been reading over her posts several times, because I know something is hiding in all of that indecision, but her vote and view on the Sixth suspicion bandwagon could easily be used for or against her. Against, obviously because she had suspicion on why Sixth was such a wise choice to kill, then for time restrictions had to vote early with little grounded reason. In that order she can be taken as a wolf trying to slip out easily. For, because others disagreed with the Sixth bandwagon and in its hasty creation after the Nerwen backtrack and N/F/A affair, because of sally’s vote appearing like a safe guess.

Sally’s vote obviously was a gamble that came out correct for a strong bandwagon, but you can’t place solid suspicion on her knowing this, because I doubt she could telepathically search into our minds and guess our votes. Plus you can’t retract votes anyways, so there isn’t much else to say on this. If she is a wolf, she was no luckier than if she is an ordo who had a case of indecision and went with the strongest appearing argument of others.
In this same respect, I doubt Mith could have known it was going to be such a strong vote for Sixth, since at that time all our votes were spread out and she herself had two votes over her head. Probably good guessing, I don’t really know. This could make her suspicious for appearing ‘safe’, but the same could be said of most of us.

Aganzir, of course I have suspicion on (it’s natural, I probably always will…), because I know she’s a clever one, but I’m going to vainly hope that for the sake of diversity in the werewolf playing style, Brinn didn’t make her a wolf this time. She always appears suspicious, but ‘werewolf evil’ this time? Not so much. She gives too many options in her vote rationale toDay. If she is a wolf, oh well, just kill me now then.

Durelin I know nothing about. Sorry.

Nilp, even if he is suspicious at points, has been helpful and rational for the majority of toDay. I have little suspicion of him at the moment, plus, good vibes I guess is the best way of saying so.

Boro88 is hard to form any opinion of at the moment. I never can tell much about him anyways, due to a lack of WW co-player experience.

Form, really, no experience with or opinion fully developed on. Doesn’t matter what role he’s playing, so far he has appeared collective and grounded.

Sally, really not much either. She’s acted similar with her posting style before in either role as an ordo or a wolf. As a gifted I know she acts differently, but not as she’s been playing toDay or yesterDay. I won’t have much more of an opinion until after toDay and if she votes as well.

Ugh, there I go rationalizing myself out of my only suspicions. I don’t have more time to spare before the deadline so, I’m going to vote anyways.

++Eonwe

Only because out of my indecision, it’s the one I think know more about at the moment.

Okay, I need to return to my job precessing and bothering HR, sorry to leave so soon, but I need my job because I need money and experience as everyone else does.

~ Ka

[The Elf-warrior]

Sorry, all, I have no time to talk.

++Eönwë

[Shastanis Althreduin]

hAy n00b!!11!

d0nt u no i woz ti3d with u & mith & sixth & n3ar DL???

r u b31ng IC & makeNg c0nsp1RacY th30r13z???

or r u st00pid or wot???11!!! (Nerwen)

Translation:

Hey, silly new person!

Don't you know I was tied for votes with yourself, Mithalwen, and Sixth near the deadline?

Are you being in-character and making up ridiculous conspiracy theories?

Or, are you stupid or what?

y r U poStiNg c0nsp1RacY th30r13z??? or r u juS7 bakcing off n0w???!111!!! (Nerwen)

Translation:

Why are you posting ridiculous conspiracy theories? Or are you just backing off now?

With 12 votes still remaining? I doubt a wolf-on-wolf vote would have been a viable strategy then, especially since Eönwë is suspicious. (Nilp)

Yes, but Eonwe wasn't suspicious then, really, all the attention was on Agan, Form, and Sixth.

Do you think there'd be wolf-on-wolf voting so early? (Kitanna)

I don't see why not. It's not as if anyone would follow the first vote for someone, clearly labeled as "random".

I think my next course of action will be to go back and see if I can figure out who was conspicuous enough (assuming they both picked a loud person) to be targeted both by the wolves and the Ranger - that path hasn't been taken yet, can't hurt, and might help. How long before deadline, may I ask? I wasn't here for it yesterday.

Edit: X'd with Agan and... Elf-warrior. Oh, dear.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to take Kitanna's list to start looking at those who "spreaded" out the votes:

Votes that spread it out
Form
Kit
Sally
Mith
Eomer
Kath
Ka
Durelin

This is going to be very hypocritical of me, because I think way too much focus is being placed on too few people (Eonwe, Agan, Nerwen), thus I want to put more people under the radar.

Form was the first to vote for Nogrod. An IC vote, but I hold what I said earlier, that vote alone doesn't make him a hacker. That's how Formen seems to play Day 1's, whether he's a hacker or not. So, strictly going by his vote, he doesn't look suspicious.

Kitanna's vote for Nerwen. I also still hold to believe her vote yesterday was a well-reasoned one placed by an innocent. It's her early vote today, for Agan, that baffles me (after agreeing with me about Nerwen, and Nerwen looking more 'suspicious then yesterday). Agan must have done a pretty good leap-frog job then for you Kit?

sally's first vote for the Sixth doesn't look all that suspicious. I don't agree with Mith's feeling she was capitalizing on the growing suspicions of Sixth.

Mith's vote for sally does look odd, I find myself agreeing with Eomer that Mith was quick to jump onto sally as possibly being a "bandwagoning hacker" after the Sixth was growing in suspicion.

Eomer's vote for Mith also looks odd, because he was quick to jump on Mith for jumping on to sally. Eomer is one who is quick to react, and always seems to have some sort of trap set. I haven't seen anything else to worry me about Eomer, maybe his vote was an over-reaction to Mith's reaction.

Kath's complete random vote...that also baffles me. It baffles me in the sense that I just don't know what to think about it. I can see a bold wolf come oout and just cast a random vote, while publicly declaring that it is definitely random. I don't know if it's something Kath would do. Maybe I'm foolishly underestimating her, there's not enough on her yet to tell.

The Ka, for Rikae. Of all the vote spreaders, this one looks the most suspicious. Ka said she had a bad feeling about Rikae, and that she couldn't explain it. It's dangerous to let Rikae run wild, but to borrow Eomer's words, this is the vote that looks like someone didn't want to be a bandwagoning wolf. And she attaches the easiest accusation in the books..."Rikae doesn't make me feel good."

Edit: crossed with every post since Ka's

[Eönwë]

Votes so far:

Nilpaurion Felagund- Eönwë
Kitanna- Aganzir
Mithalwen- Elf-Warrior

So, no bandwaggons yet. Everyone's voted for someone differrent.


PS. Internet blip. Last post I saw was Boro's #189

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Sorry, all, I have no time to talk.

++Eönwë

No time to talk now or no time to talk at all?

I am seriously tempted to vote for EW.

edit because I forgot to add that a person who won't be modfired because of voting yet is not speaking is not of much use. Though I think it was quite clear anyway.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Need to vote very soon. Considering voting Mithalwen again but figure I won't get support for that. So I'll probably be content to leave that discussion for Day 3.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Actual Vote Count (I feel like phantom! )

Nilp - Eonwe (Eonwe1)
Kitanna - Aganzir (Eonwe1, Aganzir1)
Mithalwen - Elf-Warrior (Eonwe1, Aganzir1, Elf-Warrior1)
Ka - Eonwe (Eonwe2, Aganzir1, Elf-Warrior1)
Elf-Warrior - Eonwe (Eonwe3, Aganzir1, Elf-Warrior1)

Making this the second day in a row that Elf-Warrior's cast a vote for the person with the most votes with no explanation...

Edit: X'd with Eomer.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As to my previous post; I decided to go do something different, and leave the wolves and Ranger - however, I might go back to that later.

Is the deadline in the next hour, then? It's 5:00 PM for me right now.

[Eönwë]

Ok- I don't have anymore time:

++The Elf-Warrior

edit: x-ed since first post on this page (I didn't realise there was a new one)

[Rikae]

Well, Elf Warrior seems to be making himself scarce. I say, let's get to the bottom of this:

++The Elf Warrior

EDIT: Somehow, I seem to have cross posted with the whole page.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Rikae

EDIT: Somehow, I seem to have cross posted with the whole page.

same here.

[Eönwë]

If I'm not mistaken, these are the votes so far:

Nilp - Eönwë
Kitanna - Aganzir
Mithalwen - Elf-Warrior
Ka - Eönwë
Elf-Warrior - Eönwë
Form - Elf-Warrior
Eomer - Elf-Warrior
Shastanis Althreduin-Eönwë
Eönwë-Elf-Warrior
Rikae-Elf-Warrior

So, the scores are:

Elf-Warrior-5
Eönwë- 4
Aganzir- 1


Seems like I've become a suspicious character lately...

edit: x-ed with Agan (beat me to it) and Nog

[satansaloser2005]

Okie dokie. I don't feel terribly analysizational (Sixth'd have a field day with that one....heh) at the moment, but I'll give it a shot. Quick glance at everyone (and I mean quick.) They're in post order at the moment (as in the person with the most posts is first, etc.) I'll probably make a suspicion list later, but for now it'll do.


Nerwen: The thing that bothers me most about Nerwen? The number of her posts. [rabbit trail] We all know I'm a loud mouth, even when I'm sick/busy/etc. And, at least in my experience, Nerwen's been quiet, or at least not a rabid multi-poster. [/rabbit trail] So....why is she talking so much? Just to be fun and in-character? Maybe. But it bothers me that she's saying so much (or so little, as some others have suggested) when she's usually not quite this vocal.
I'd give her 4-6/10 on the suspicion scale, off the top of my head.

Eon: Again, in the last game he was very quiet. But wasn't the last game his first? (Or am I thinking of someone else?) If I'm right about that, I'm going to ignore his change in talking level. If I'm wrong, ignore this section of the post completely. On another level, people (okay, Form, etc.) have accused him of being unhelpful. I'm not saying I agree or not, but I think just because he's not terribly "useful" means that he's evil, and if you decide to kill him for not being super-hacker-catcher, I'll have something to say about it. Namely, "why are you so eager to find reasons to kill off innocents?"
I'd give him a 3-4/10 at the moment, although I'll look at everything a bit more over the Night and give you a better picture then.

Agan: Oh, no, not this girl again. She just won't leave me alone!
[quick insert to say HA as my internet about ate my post and failed]
Anyway, I think she's okay at the moment. She's been her normal self, ish, and I just don't think we should kill her. At least, not at the moment.
I'd give her a 3-4/10.

Nilp: I've only played with him once, but he doesn't seem to be in wolf mode. I apologize in advance if I'm mistaken, but for now I think he's okay.
I'd give him a 1-2/10 on the scale, and he'll probably stay there unless he does something....well, Nilpish.

Eomer: Erm, I'm kind of confused here, what with (in the last game) he and Cailin playing back and forth. Not that I have a problem with, but it means that I don't know what was him and what was Cailin. I'll get something more about him toMorrow, but I just noticed the time so I need to move on. Sorry.
Withholding a rank right now, although he strikes me as a bit off.

Noggie: Isn't he louder? That alone makes me nervous. I remember what a genius he was in Legate's game, and I just find it odd that he would be ordo/gifted and be so quiet. That and I'm not about to be fooled by him like I was last time.
I'm rating him about 6-7/10, just to be on the safe side.

Form: Quite frankly, I don't like the way he's doing things. (Of course, that's not to say that....oh, you get the point....) The first post I saw of his toDay was long and drawn out, statistical and accurate, but "utterly deceptive twaddlespeak, says I". There's a fine line between wanting to be overly helpful and wanting to look helpful so no one will kill you off. Or does he always play like this? I've never played with him before, but at the moment it looks fuzzy as an overripe peach pie....even cobbler? (sorry, couldn't resist the joke....means nothing)
I'll give him a 5-7/10 as well.

Mith: Now, she did jump on me quite quickly, but after I reviewed posts I can see why.
[bunny trail] Not that it matters, but I made quite the typo yesterDay. I looked and I had x'd since Ka's 61, not 71. Take it for what you will, but I feel quite stupid, honestly. [/bunny trail]
Other than that, i think she's pretty level headed and I'd like to keep her around. She (and others) really seem to want to get rid of EW....conspiracy? She's given me a few things that don't sit right, but overall....
I'd give her....meh, a 3-5/10 to be safe.

Shoot. The time. Sorry, stopping here for now just so I can catch up. (I've been refreshing, but not really reading because I'm obviously a bit rushed.)

X'd since I don't know when. I know it was past Form's vote though, if that helps.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, drat. I'm not terribly keen on lynching either. But as you've seen, I'm against Agan and Eon (being lynched, that is.) If we want to kill Eon, fine, but come up with a better reason than "he's not helpful."

I need to think about it for a bit. Give me like three minutes to catch up (again, you rabid posters you ) and I'll come back and make up my mind.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by sally

And, at least in my experience, Nerwen's been quiet, or at least not a rabid multi-poster

Actually, she usually is a loudmouth.

Originally Posted by sally

But wasn't the last game his first?

Yes.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

But wasn't the last game his first?

Aganzir speaks the truth.

edit: x-ed since Nerwen's #236

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Actually, she usually is a loudmouth.

I prefer "loquacious" myself.

[Eönwë]

Well, my suspicion of Mith has dissipated a bit. Mith, I don't suspect you as much any more. That is not to say you don't need monitoring, though. You seem to have settled down a bit. I think that there are far more suspicious people on this forum...


To correct my last, post, I will say that maybe a bandwaggon is forming, and against me!

Most suspicious person on my list:
The Elf-Warrior

Votes for me after two others have, and with no reason either. Then again, THE Ka seemed like she didn't think I was guilty, but then voted me.



Elf-Warrior, if you don't sayy someting to convinve me otherwise in the next 30 minutes, I think I might have to vote you.

edit: x-ed with Agan, Eomer and Shasta

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Votes so far:

Nilpaurion Felagund- Eönwë
Kitanna- Aganzir
Mithalwen- Elf-Warrior

Thinking over these three potential lynchees, I'm left leaning more strongly towards Elf-warrior.

Eönwë has struck me as a rather annoying in his playing style, but this is more along the line of personalities than hard suspicions, and people rubbing each other the wrong way happens in WW. I have been accused of the same myself, and I think I should know better than to vote people off based on pure dislike.

Kitanna's accusation of Aganzir somehow makes me more confident in Agan's innocence. I'm wary of Kitanna, but not anywhere ready to declare her lupine on that basis.

Which leaves Elf-warrior. Mith's willingness to vote for him does not, if he is a wolf, absolve her of wolvishness, but rather makes me even more likely to suspect her. Voting for a fellow wolf, even at serious risk of a bandwaggon, has precedent. On the other hand, Mith is generally astute enough that if innocent, I feel my suspicions confirmed by her sharing them.

This leaves me, I realise, in the odd state of reading into Mith's actions, regardless of her role, a confirmation of my own prejudices in the matter.

Unfortunately, there's nothing I can do about it at the moment...

Due to thunder and lightning and the consequent concern of my parents for their computer, I have to vote now. If the weather passes before the deadline, I'll be back to contribute, but I have no assurance of that.

++The Elf-Warrior

[Formendacil]

Just enough time to comment on posts missed since replying...

Eönwë will not be much missed by me if he should go, but I am rather surprised that such attention has accrued to him. Overall, he strikes me as more non-useful than clearly malevolent.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Agree with many others here. Elf-Warrior has to go. He is clearly up to no good, whether he be hacker or spammer (and I am inclined to think he is more likely spammer).

++ELF-WARRIOR

I just can't see a villager or a mod acting the way he is.

[Boromir88]

I don't want to see Eonwe lynched, I strongly disagree with Formendacil that he doesn't seem useful. We need thinkers who will try to spot hacker behaviors, and we need followers who read through everything and reach then trust their own judgement. Eonwe strikes me as the latter.

Thus, I would rather vote for Elf-warrior than Eonwe. But, I caution against a counter-bandwagon here against EW. What are our other options? Eomer has expressed a preference for Mith. Ok, Eomer, convince me on why Mith is suspicious.

I would prefer Nerwen, because me suspect she be the spammer.

Edit: crossed with Eomer

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I personally wouldn't mind seeing Eonwe gone, because he and Eomer still strike me as the most suspicious from yesterday. Elf-warrior isn't being actively unhelpful; maybe he's just having issues?

[Nerwen]

HI PPL!!!!111!!! BET U M1ST ME TH1S TIEM!!!111!!!

–be back when I've read through the thread.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

HI PPL!!!!111!!! BET U M1ST ME TH1S TIEM!!!111!!!

Translation:

Hello, everyone. I'd hazard a guess that you missed my presence this time.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would prefer Nerwen, because me suspect she be the spammer.

Me too. Though I'm not really sure - Nerwen posts while EW doesn't, but she's also so much more suspicious, yet she doesn't have any votes yet whereas EW has three.

I read through Nogrod's posts because I kept having a nagging bad feeling about him, but he still looks innocent.

edit: xed with Shasta
edit2: one>three. Somehow I only thought of the last vote count when writing this post and didn't take into account the fact that Form and Eomer had voted for EW.

[Kath]

You have my abject apologies for my non-appearance until now toDay. A cheer competition went on longer than expected and then I had to watch Doctor Who before I was spoilered for it.

I don't want to vote because I truly haven't read any of toDay's posts and I don't think I'll be able to get through them all before the deadline. Nor, however, do I want to be modfired, so could someone let me know the ruling on that? If a vote is necessary to stay in the game I'll do what I did yesterDay and come back fresh and free toMorrow. If a vote is not necessary I simply won't vote and still come back afresh toMorrow.

So ... Brinn? Are you around to answer me on that or does anyone else know.

Apologies also for the total OOC-ness of this post, it has just occurred to me that this should be in the admin thread, but I suspect our mod will be checking this one more often anyway.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You're only modfired if you don't vote twice in a row, Kath. Since you voted yesterday, I think you're safe if you don't want to vote today.