Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well, how about if I ask?

Will everyone please make a list?

Well, you didn't comment on mine, so I'm not talking to you anymore.

And I even included you in it.

[the phantom]

Sorry, Sally, but I don't want to really "comment" on the lists at this time.

Originally Posted by Sally

If he's a wolf, I'll drive to Omaha and strangle him.

Oh great- yet another person for my security staff to have to look out for.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Sorry, Sally, but I don't want to really "comment" on the lists at this time.

Oh great- yet another person for my security staff to have to look out for.

Okay. Can you do this for me? Make your own list. Just a general "These are wolvish, these aren't". I don't want you to give the wizard away, but I need to get SOMETHING from you besides "Do what I say, but I'm not telling you what I think." Please, Phantom.


And I'll just bring the duck with me if necessary. *pang of duck withdrawal hehe* We're stealth, we is.

[the phantom]

Okay, here's the deal. The GW and EW still have another Night of activity left, and I can't afford to give the EW an accurate picture of what I know. I mean, if I say who to suspect and who not to suspect, the EW and the WWs will suddenly know precisely who to kill and who to scry.

I will tell you some hard true information, but not until later today.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Okay, here's the deal. The GW and EW still have another Night of activity left, and I can't afford to give the EW an accurate picture of what I know. I mean, if I say who to suspect and who not to suspect, the EW and the WWs will suddenly know precisely who to kill and who to scry.

I will tell you some hard true information, but not until later today.

Frankly, I don't think the time of day matters. As long as it's toDay, the Night situation will be the same.



Roa, thanks for the Nilp post by the way. You've made my re-look at him a bit easier, although obviously if I have time I'll have to look at his posts in detail myself.



EDIT: Oh, x'd with Morm btw.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nilp Analysis

Day 1- forgot to show. *snickers*

Nilp was probably not a wolf on Day 1, since he probably wouldn't have missed it. I also doubt that he is a wizard.


Day 2
Post 1 - Clarifies that there was no night activity, so we can't point out anything from Volo's posts.

Post 2 - Admits that there are a lot of voting lists already, but he wants to make his own. States that we don't know if the wolves know each other already. Poses the possibility that they do, because it would make them more effective by Day. Thinks that perhaps those that state the wolves don't know each other are wolves themselves. He decides to focus on the votes of the dead, and on bandwagons.

His conclusions: 1. The phantom bandwagon is unsuspcious as phantom was acting suspicious. However, Eonwe's vote seems out of place here. 2. The Nerwen bandwagon was started by Cailin, but Cailin herself seemed unsuspicious in her vote. The others (McCaber and Di) seemed more suspicious. 3. Finds the Agan bandwagon to be the least suspicious.

In this post, he restates a lot of things that have already been discussed, and seems to dismiss the idea that the wolves don't know each other, even going so far as to suggest that those who think so are wolves themselves. Certainly that shouldn't be ruled out (you can't trust anyone in this game unless you know for certain who they are) but niether should the opposite. His conclusions on the bandwagons are fairly non-committal, but he was really, really wrong about the Nerwen bandwagon.

Post 3 - apologizes for clicking the wrong button? (I'm not sure what he's refering to...)

Post 4 - Banter with Gwath

Post 5 - reports fixing his previous mistake

Post 6 -

I've been thinking about the NIGHT's kill, and I came up with this notion: The Dark Side fears killing the Hunter above all.

Think about it: they have four Wolves now (=2 kills/NIGHT), and with the absence of double lynching, we could kill only a maximum of one Wolf per DAY. So, even if we get one lupine pelt today, with a successful EW-scry, they would still have 2 kills.

Therefore, the only thing they fear is a kill beyond the DAY's lynching. That only means the Hunter.

So I've looked at the posts of the NIGHT's victim, checked whom they suspected, decided that they are probably innocent.

Here are the people he crosses off:

So morm, Agan, and Legate are probably innocent. (Or they are controlled by a very bold EW--or perhaps even one of them is! But I'll stick with what I said first.) Greenie, Sally-poo, and tp are less so. (emphasis mine)

Reiterates the idea that the wolves probably know each other now.

This is erroneous information. The hunter isn't the only one who can take down the wolf numbers at Night. The GW can scry them to get rid of them. And you can't rule people out because they were suspected by the people that were killed. Wolves have killed the people that suspect them before in a double bluff to make people think that it's not them. (For heaven's sake, I do it almost every time I'm a wolf!) This post sets off alarm bells. Also, we can't assume that the wolves know each other yet- that's very dangerous thinking and can get innocent people lynched for a supposed connection that doesn't even exist.

Post 7 - Still thinks that the wolves will avoid killing anyone who suspects them because they fear the hunter. Has convinced himself that the wolves do talk to each other. Looks at the bandwagoners and orders them from least suspicious to most suspicious:
1. Agan - Thinks that if Agan is evil, Kath and Lhuna are innocent
2. Cailin - had a very valid reason for voting
3. Durelin - had continual suspicion towards Nerwen
4. Lal - did express some suspicion
5. Diamond - voted to keep phantom around
6. McCaber - very shifty reasoning
VOTES MCCABER

The fact that two known wolves were the lowest on his list and that the now known seer was second highest is rather concerning. I still don't think it's a good idea for him to assume that the wolves are talking to each other just yet.


Day 3

Post 1 - Explains Agan's vote for Nerwen as being afraid of getting lynched by the remaining voters. Rules out tp and himself (why himself?) and believes that Lhuna and Kath were innocent on Day 1. (He basis this off the idea that the wolves know each other, which may or may not be true. So his assumption about Kath and Lhuna is not only flawed, but dangerous.)

Post 2 - Thinks Rikae is jumpy and perhaps sinister.

This is the first right call he's made so far. I'm not sure what to make of it. If he's a wolf, he may be trying to distance himself. Or he may not know who his fellows are. (Perhaps he kept insisting that the wolves knew each other in order to draw us away from the fact that they don't.) If he's innocent, well, 3rd Day's the charm?

Post 3 - Decides to look at the band wagons again. "I'll sniff at the Mac bandwaggon first. Akamaru! Rarf!"

A bold hint?

Post 4 - Mac Bandwagon:
Lhuna has evidence
Kath - no conclusion
Di- voted for personal reasons

I'm not certain exactly what his suspicions are here, since he doesn't clearly lay them out. He suggests we look at Sally's post #615 to get what he thinks about Diamond, but that post is about Gwath....

Post 5 - Joking post about self-voting

Post 6 - Lhuna posting in Nilp's name. Banter

Post 7 - Nilp again. Banter

Post 8 - Thinks Rikae is acting weird again, compares her to Valier in last DW.

Now that's just plain odd. In the last village, the very innocent Valier pegged me solid as the EW. I then turned her into a wolf to discredit her opinion of me. So I wonder what exactly Nilp is trying to suggest here.

Post 9 - Votes Rikae. This the first votes for her and apparently the original suspicion towards her before her reveal. I hadn't seen much odd in Rikae that Day (though I was admittedly pretty sick that Day), and he says he doesn't need to do an analysis because her guilt is really obvious. Which it obviously isn't, because Rikae didn't have that much suspicion on her. This is apparently what prompted the "reveal". Nilp's suspicion here seems forced, somehow.

Day 4 - Nothing yet

Overall, he posts a lot of fluff, some erroneous information and conclusions, and the only thing he's gotten right so far is Rikae, which he somehow managed before all of us. If it was planned for Rikae to reveal as the GW, he may have been trying to give her an excuse. I definitely find him suspicious, and I'm a little cnofused by all these people that find him "reasonable."