Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Roa_Aoife · 06-02-2008, 11:06 PM

I'm afraid I must be leaving as well. I'll be back on briefly tomorrow about 4 hours before deadline, and I'll have to vote then, since I don't get off work again until 2 hours after deadline. Good hunting everyone.

satansaloser2005 · 06-02-2008, 11:10 PM

Drat. I was rather hoping for a flurry of posts while I was gone, but alas....

Okay, I'm going back to my house to get some sleep. I'll try to get up early(ish) so I can post before work. In case that proves impossible, however, I'll find some other way to post before deadline.

Speak up, people! I want to wake up to your lovely voices!

Good night, sweet princes/princesses (wow, that was random),
~~Sally~~

EDIT: x'd with Roa and Durie....of course....NOW people post.... :P

satansaloser2005 · 06-02-2008, 11:13 PM

Oh, that reminds me. Noggie, can the GW/EW scry the same person two nights in a row? I know you can't heal someone two nights in a row, but I didn't know if that applied to scries as well. Reason I ask is that I had a dream last night that the wizards kept fighting over someone and pretty much taking turns scrying them. Pity that I can't remember who it was, but it made me wonder nonetheless.

Gwathagor · 06-02-2008, 11:49 PM

I just got back late from Ironman, and I have to go sleep now, but I thought I'd check in briefly.

It's been fun watching Roa and the phantom go at it. Thanks for giving me something to read.

I can't remember who said what exactly (it's late for me), but it seems like the key here is to try to track down the Evil Wizard, because he/she is constant whereas the wolves can change any day. In the couple of games that I have played, a case is usually built against a player over a period of several days, based on voting records and other accumulated evidence and suspicion. Hardly ever is the first person lynched a wolf, which I think demonstrates that a single day is rarely enough to identify a baddie, which is why I think it's better to make a concerted effort to find the EW, than to scramble about every day trying to flush out that day's unique wolf line-up. No, I'm not saying "don't look for wolves." But I do think most of our energy should be directed towards tracking down the EW. In my opinion.

Ok, early day of work tomorrow. Lords and ladies need relieving of their valuables. Got to rest up.

Brinniel · 06-03-2008, 12:01 AM

Okay, so we know there aren't connections between the wolves as they probably don't know of each other. So we should look for a different connection...and that'd be between the EW and the wolves. By lynching wolves, we will have better clues to who the EW may be.

And yes I know the EW didn't specifically choose the wolves last Night. But they did make a list...therefore each person on that list was chosen for some reason to be considered for a wolf. Anyone who is a wolf is one because of the EW. For these first Days, we should find the wolves...then search for the EW. I think that's the best plan right now.

Isabellkya · 06-03-2008, 01:28 AM

Izzie raises her cup to her lips and sips the tea, in the middle of swallowing she half chokes and half spits it out. "I dare say, I've never been a tea drinker - not sure who would think it the choice of the elderly." She stretches and dumps the tea out the window, refilling her cup with cool spiked apple juice; "ahh much more welcoming to the palette."

Why must it be a choice of either focusing on the wolves, or focusing on the EW? Can we not multi-task? The GW is perhaps better equiped at finding the EW, yet there is no crime in helping her out.

Keeping the population of wolves to under four, I think would be a very smart idea - as obviously we would only be subjected to one kill a night. Yet letting the EW to roam free, capable of popping out wolves like a well oiled factory - is something we need to face now, rather than wait.

I think it would be pure folly for both the EW and GW to hand out their identity to their minions at the get-go. As well as allow all of them to know the indentities of their fellow minions. There is no guarantee that you will keep your role and alignment as a wolf/gifted/ordo for the duration of the game.

If a wolf is turned to an ordo, what reason would they have to keep whatever information they learned a secret? The same for an ordo>gifted>ordo>wolf?

I'd have to re-examine the discussion thread, because I have a couple more thoughts which the answers are not jumping forward to.

Cailín · 06-03-2008, 02:47 AM

Oh, Eomer, darling, love of my life...

What a dreadful, horrible day

A terrible sadness is on your wife

And all guinea pigs squeak in dismay

My apologies for the pitiful rhyme, but this tragedy has quite robbed me of any gift for poetry I may have had. I cannot believe this happened, and cannot even think on it now. Who will look after my girls now? Who will discipline Durelin? Who will look after me? And the poor pigs? I must be strong.

---

Let me add to the EW and Wolves discussion (my future son-in-law phantom already managed to evoke some strong reactions, which is always good) that we should attempt to do both find the wolves and guess at the EW’s identity, as Izzy says. This may seem a pretty useless comment, but let us not forget that we have little to go on and our success in lynching wolves (the villager’s task) somewhat depends on us figuring out who the EW is.

The EW will be someone with
- lots of time on her hands (Nogrod used she in the narration, but I seem to remember we shouldn’t think this significant)
- confidence in her ww abilities. She has to live up to quite a legend, after all.
- a slightly twisted personality

This already eliminates half the village, I think (though all here have twisted personalities, and do not try to deny it).

And, another point the phantom made which I wish to highlight again. If I were the EW, I would also choose from among our less famous, vocal and illustrous villagers. The EW has no great interest in finding out who the GW is. So the EW will probably be scrying those she does not really suspect of wizardry and are able to fly under the radar for a long time. At least, she will probably avoid choosing those who the GW is likely to suspect of evil wizardry, because losing a wolf to a nightly scry would be very inconvenient. Yet, this is all speculation. We cannot know what the EW would do, because we do not know her identity.

I am also with my daughter, Lhuna. Let us hunt some wolves today and revenge my husband’s death. For old times’ sake, I will start with accusing my lovely, yet suspicious neighbour Lalaith, whom I would turn instantly if I were the EW.

Macalaure · 06-03-2008, 03:32 AM

The one disappointing thing about this village is that Nogrod isn't available for me to heavily suspect him on the first Day on nearly non-existent grounds.

Anyway, I wonder whether wolves will act differently in this game than usual. I mean, usually they fall somewhere in the interval between just staying hidden and actively trying to lynch innocents. Here, they could have the additional task to divert our eyes (and the eyes of GW and seer) from the EW. Also, since the wolves can be remade, the loss of one is not as crucial as it is in a regular village. This might be less careful about not being lynched than usual.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa

Your idea to find the EW is flawed. For one thing, that may or may not help us in finding wolves, which ought to be our primary concern. If we can lynch wolves instead of innocents, then not only do we keep the numbers low (and so prevent double kills for a little while) we help the GW with her most vital task, which is to leave us with the best odds possible. The GW will find the EW. It's her, job not ours. We should focus on wolf hunting. It's our best bet for survival.

Why don't we just go for whoever simply appears evil? We benefit from both, finding the EW and lynching wolves. The only thing we don't benefit from is being single-minded.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa

I'm not saying you're on the evil team, but I'm keeping an eye on you.

Now I just talked about wolves maybe acting differently, and then I spot a classic "I'm not suspicious, but I'm suspicious" already on the first page.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa

Or the EW could have counted on people assuming that no one obvious would be picked and so picked the most obvious. We can't know for certain, and so we shouldn't rule anyone out.

The GW is going to search for the EW with his scries. Picking someone as a wolf who could be assumed to be the EW is unwise, because the chance that the person will be turned back into an ordo due to the searching GW is high.

At this point, I'm suspicious of Roa being a wolf, not just because I disagree with her on much, but because the opinions stated by her fit to what a wolf would state, in my opinion. Shasta agreeing with Roa in #36 raised my eyebrow, too. Lhuna (#42) also sided with Roa, but less shadily.

morm, tp, and THE Ka are unlikely to be the EW, because they're too controversial.

Cailin just baffled me by first elaborating on the EW (and narrowing his identity down just a tad too much, I think) and then closing with the suggestion to go for wolves.

Other than that: cluelessness.

06-02-2008, 11:06 PM	#1
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	I'm afraid I must be leaving as well. I'll be back on briefly tomorrow about 4 hours before deadline, and I'll have to vote then, since I don't get off work again until 2 hours after deadline. Good hunting everyone. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

06-02-2008, 11:10 PM	#2
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Drat. I was rather hoping for a flurry of posts while I was gone, but alas.... Okay, I'm going back to my house to get some sleep. I'll try to get up early(ish) so I can post before work. In case that proves impossible, however, I'll find some other way to post before deadline. Speak up, people! I want to wake up to your lovely voices! Good night, sweet princes/princesses (wow, that was random), ~~Sally~~ EDIT: x'd with Roa and Durie....of course....NOW people post.... :P __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

06-03-2008, 12:01 AM	#5
Brinniel Reflection of Darkness Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull. Posts: 2,983	Okay, so we know there aren't connections between the wolves as they probably don't know of each other. So we should look for a different connection...and that'd be between the EW and the wolves. By lynching wolves, we will have better clues to who the EW may be. And yes I know the EW didn't specifically choose the wolves last Night. But they did make a list...therefore each person on that list was chosen for some reason to be considered for a wolf. Anyone who is a wolf is one because of the EW. For these first Days, we should find the wolves...then search for the EW. I think that's the best plan right now. __________________ Nolite te bastardes carborundorum

06-03-2008, 01:28 AM	#6
Isabellkya Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Amongst trees. Posts: 919	Izzie raises her cup to her lips and sips the tea, in the middle of swallowing she half chokes and half spits it out. "I dare say, I've never been a tea drinker - not sure who would think it the choice of the elderly." She stretches and dumps the tea out the window, refilling her cup with cool spiked apple juice; "ahh much more welcoming to the palette." Why must it be a choice of either focusing on the wolves, or focusing on the EW? Can we not multi-task? The GW is perhaps better equiped at finding the EW, yet there is no crime in helping her out. Keeping the population of wolves to under four, I think would be a very smart idea - as obviously we would only be subjected to one kill a night. Yet letting the EW to roam free, capable of popping out wolves like a well oiled factory - is something we need to face now, rather than wait. I think it would be pure folly for both the EW and GW to hand out their identity to their minions at the get-go. As well as allow all of them to know the indentities of their fellow minions. There is no guarantee that you will keep your role and alignment as a wolf/gifted/ordo for the duration of the game. If a wolf is turned to an ordo, what reason would they have to keep whatever information they learned a secret? The same for an ordo>gifted>ordo>wolf? I'd have to re-examine the discussion thread, because I have a couple more thoughts which the answers are not jumping forward to. __________________ But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.

06-02-2008, 11:13 PM	#3
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Oh, that reminds me. Noggie, can the GW/EW scry the same person two nights in a row? I know you can't heal someone two nights in a row, but I didn't know if that applied to scries as well. Reason I ask is that I had a dream last night that the wizards kept fighting over someone and pretty much taking turns scrying them. Pity that I can't remember who it was, but it made me wonder nonetheless. __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

06-02-2008, 11:49 PM	#4
Gwathagor Shade with a Blade Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: A Rainy Night In Soho Posts: 2,512	I just got back late from Ironman, and I have to go sleep now, but I thought I'd check in briefly. It's been fun watching Roa and the phantom go at it. Thanks for giving me something to read. I can't remember who said what exactly (it's late for me), but it seems like the key here is to try to track down the Evil Wizard, because he/she is constant whereas the wolves can change any day. In the couple of games that I have played, a case is usually built against a player over a period of several days, based on voting records and other accumulated evidence and suspicion. Hardly ever is the first person lynched a wolf, which I think demonstrates that a single day is rarely enough to identify a baddie, which is why I think it's better to make a concerted effort to find the EW, than to scramble about every day trying to flush out that day's unique wolf line-up. No, I'm not saying "don't look for wolves." But I do think most of our energy should be directed towards tracking down the EW. In my opinion. Ok, early day of work tomorrow. Lords and ladies need relieving of their valuables. Got to rest up. __________________ Stories and songs.

06-03-2008, 02:47 AM	#7
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	Oh, Eomer, darling, love of my life... What a dreadful, horrible day A terrible sadness is on your wife And all guinea pigs squeak in dismay My apologies for the pitiful rhyme, but this tragedy has quite robbed me of any gift for poetry I may have had. I cannot believe this happened, and cannot even think on it now. Who will look after my girls now? Who will discipline Durelin? Who will look after me? And the poor pigs? I must be strong. --- Let me add to the EW and Wolves discussion (my future son-in-law phantom already managed to evoke some strong reactions, which is always good) that we should attempt to do both find the wolves and guess at the EW’s identity, as Izzy says. This may seem a pretty useless comment, but let us not forget that we have little to go on and our success in lynching wolves (the villager’s task) somewhat depends on us figuring out who the EW is. The EW will be someone with - lots of time on her hands (Nogrod used she in the narration, but I seem to remember we shouldn’t think this significant) - confidence in her ww abilities. She has to live up to quite a legend, after all. - a slightly twisted personality This already eliminates half the village, I think (though all here have twisted personalities, and do not try to deny it). And, another point the phantom made which I wish to highlight again. If I were the EW, I would also choose from among our less famous, vocal and illustrous villagers. The EW has no great interest in finding out who the GW is. So the EW will probably be scrying those she does not really suspect of wizardry and are able to fly under the radar for a long time. At least, she will probably avoid choosing those who the GW is likely to suspect of evil wizardry, because losing a wolf to a nightly scry would be very inconvenient. Yet, this is all speculation. We cannot know what the EW would do, because we do not know her identity. I am also with my daughter, Lhuna. Let us hunt some wolves today and revenge my husband’s death. For old times’ sake, I will start with accusing my lovely, yet suspicious neighbour Lalaith, whom I would turn instantly if I were the EW.