Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Kitanna]

*gasp* To think something like this would happen here, in our pleasant village. And my own father, Noggie, among the dead. I'm so distraught.

And I see Aganzir is quick to place blame upon my family. There was nothing but love between us. There's not a hateful bone in any of their bodies. Especially not for Noggie or Eomer.

[Roa_Aoife]

"Nogrod! It cannot be! Don't leave me alone, my love!" Roa fell beside her husband's body, weeping. It took some coaxing, but she finally released him to others and buried her face in her her sister, Rikae's, shoulder. Upon hearing her Aganzir's words, however, she looked up with a face full of vengeance.

"My own niece, with such accusations! I could never love another man. And to accuse our own children! How dare you!" Roa straightened herself and scornfully pointed towards Morm's two boys. "If anyone here is treacherous and dishonest, it would be those that make a living out of preying on the unwary travelers! Gwathagor and McCaber have never done an honest days work, and I highly doubt there is anything honest about them! And as Agan herself said, they would benefit from the lack of a judge."

She turned back toward Nogrod's corpse and placed her hand on his now still heart. "Don't worry, my love, I will find out who did this to you and punish them severely for it. I swear it."

(((Okay, that was my big in character entrance. Don't expect too much more of it.)))

[the phantom]

Aw, too bad. I lost my future father-in-law! Ah, well at least he died knowing his daughter would be happy.

That is if she lives through this.

Let's see here, there are... 28 of us. Discounting the two Wizards the score is 23-3. Lynch one today, lose two during the night, and add a WW, and tomorrow the score will be 19-4. Then odds say we will lynch another innocent, then we lose two more the next night plus add another WW, and on Day 3 the score will be 15-5!

Most villages start out with something like, what, around 13-3 or so? So in other words on Day 3 it is likely that our ratio of WWs will already be worse than what most villages start out as.

All right, so suppose we start a village off at 15-5. It looks tough, doesn't it? But on top of that, in this village the WWs get an extra kill every night and there is the opportunity to add yet another WW every night! Let me ask, what sort of chance would you give that village of survival?

I see that the earliest a challenge can happen is Day 4. Suppose we lynch incorrectly on Day 3 (not a stretch if there are 5 WWs to 17 non-WWs) and the WWs kill yet again and the EW scries again on Night 4. That would mean coming into Day 4 the count would be 11-6!! The village would be more than one-third Werewolves!

And that's the earliest the GW can challenge the EW!

Assuming that he has even discovered him by that point.

Hmmm.... any chance I could be a WW? Come on, EW, don't you want me on your team? Pleeeeease.

Ah, but seriously, it comes down to this- the EW must be found quickly! If the EW is still unknown on Day 6 then we're dead. Day 5 we have a chance if we've had good luck lynching WWs. But by Day 4 would definitely be the best.

But how to find the EW? We must use some method or another to rank the likelihood of someone being the EW, whether we go based on play style in this game, personality, stated level of RL activity on the other thread, etc. But whatever method that is used, there will be some who will be ranked near the bottom, and if the EW is one of them- game over.

For instance, the GW may have already decided to judge based on personality and decided that Eonwe is not the sort to apply to be a Wizard. But if the EW is in fact Eonwe then the game is already over and we just don't know it yet.

Scary!

We must hope for good fortune in the lynch, successful dreaming by the Seer, and above all, we must hope that there is some halfway logical way to rule out candidates for EW that does not prove to be completely wrong.

[Roa_Aoife]

It's not as bad as you think, phantom. I should hope very much that we aren't going to lynch that many innocents in this game, but we may very well do so if we aren't actually looking for wolves.

Your idea to find the EW is flawed. For one thing, that may or may not help us in finding wolves, which ought to be our primary concern. If we can lynch wolves instead of innocents, then not only do we keep the numbers low (and so prevent double kills for a little while) we help the GW with her most vital task, which is to leave us with the best odds possible. The GW will find the EW. It's her, job not ours. We should focus on wolf hunting. It's our best bet for survival.

Quite honestly, I find this suspicious behavior from you, phantom. One, you are encouraging the village to not look for wolves. And Two- since when do you share these sorts of ideas with the village? You usually keep plans and strategies to yourself until the bad guys have fallen for your trap.

I'm not saying you're on the evil team, but I'm keeping an eye on you. (Well, more than I already was. You're a sneaky bugger, you are....)

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It's not as bad as you think, phantom. I should hope very much that we aren't going to lynch that many innocents in this game, but we may very well do so if we aren't actually looking for wolves.

Your idea to find the EW is flawed. For one thing, that may or may not help us in finding wolves, which ought to be our primary concern. If we can lynch wolves instead of innocents, then not only do we keep the numbers low (and so prevent double kills for a little while) we help the GW with her most vital task, which is to leave us with the best odds possible. The GW will find the EW. It's her, job not ours. We should focus on wolf hunting. It's our best bet for survival.

Quite honestly, I find this suspicious behavior from you, phantom. One, you are encouraging the village to not look for wolves. And Two- since when do you share these sorts of ideas with the village? You usually keep plans and strategies to yourself until the bad guys have fallen for your trap.

I'm not saying you're on the evil team, but I'm keeping an eye on you. (Well, more than I already was. You're a sneaky bugger, you are....)

I'm only to this point but I must agree with the phantom here. The EW is the key to our success or theirs. (Oh, I can't wait until people misread that statement!) Anyway the EW is the deciding factor. If we get him/her early on the chance of victory becomes that much greater or rather our chance of defeat that much less, either way it's important. Factors such as RL time and availability are definately plausible factors to consider.

On to wolves, I don't think the EW would pick those who are more obvious, so to speak. I doubt the phantom would be picked at this stage but he could honestly be the EW, though I doubt that.

"My own niece, with such accusations! I could never love another man. And to accuse our own children! How dare you!" Roa straightened herself and scornfully pointed towards Morm's two boys. "If anyone here is treacherous and dishonest, it would be those that make a living out of preying on the unwary travelers! Gwathagor and McCaber have never done an honest days work, and I highly doubt there is anything honest about them! And as Agan herself said, they would benefit from the lack of a judge."

Now boys, it would seem we have a job to do tonight. Somebody doesn't like your work. You should teach how hard your job really is.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I'm only to this point but I must agree with the phantom here. The EW is the key to our success or theirs. (Oh, I can't wait until people misread that statement!) Anyway the EW is the deciding factor. If we get him/her early on the chance of victory becomes that much greater or rather our chance of defeat that much less, either way it's important. Factors such as RL time and availability are definately plausible factors to consider.

I'm not saying that the EW isn't important. Obviously both wizards are fundamentally important to the game. (That's why it's Dueling Wizards.) However, I don't think finding her is as "key" as you think it is. Keeping the wolf population low should be our first priority.

Originally Posted by morm

On to wolves, I don't think the EW would pick those who are more obvious, so to speak. I doubt the phantom would be picked at this stage but he could honestly be the EW, though I doubt that.

Or the EW could have counted on people assuming that no one obvious would be picked and so picked the most obvious. We can't know for certain, and so we shouldn't rule anyone out.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Or the EW could have counted on people assuming that no one obvious would be picked and so picked the most obvious. We can't know for certain, and so we shouldn't rule anyone out.

No, we can't no for certain can we? However, I consider playing the odds the best bet at this stage of the game. If I were the EW, well I would pick...well there's something I must do but I will be back.

[Brinniel]

*swears loudly* The news of my father's death is a hard blow to my family. I should like to put a curse on whoever is responsible for his death...ehm, once Greenie teaches me one...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the Little Green Hag and Shasta were conspiring against us, and Brinn too. I mean, they are witches... Except Shasta who is male and therefore a wizard.

Correction, I believe the term is warlock...not wizard. But thank you for accusing us of witchcraft...I take that as a compliment. Anyways, whoever said it was a bad thing? After all while one wizard may be evil, the other is on our side.

Our odds might be tough...but then again I think it could go either way. Also, don't forget werewolves can be turned back into ordos. Goodness, my head hurts just thinking of all the possible things that could happen these coming Days and Nights. Anything is possible.

Meanwhile, I need some time to mourn over the death of my father as well as Eomer (who was also a kindly man and will be dearly missed). Kath, I need a hug...

[Durelin]

"Father cried my name last...I knew he hated me, if not so much as mother and Lhuna do. They just don't understand me! No, but they do fear me...yes...that has to count for something...more than something..." Durelin trailed off into unintelligable mutters, realizing she was voicing another monologue, and that there were no asides in this place.

She calmly walked over to her father's remains and knelt by the two pieces to examine them. "Those are some sharp claws..." she observed to no one. "Now, who has more reason to do this sort of thing to my father than me?" Durelin scanned the other villagers who crowded around the two corpses.

[satansaloser2005]

"How could such a thing happen, and to my dear uncle Eomer?" Sally said as she wiped the tears from her eyes. "These villians must be caught and....and....and pecked to death! Emily, stay close so that when we find the nasties you can pluck out their eyes! My uncle will be avenged!"



Sally walked over to Legate, who had been speechless since hearing of his father's death. "My dear Legate, don't worry, for we shall have justice on these killers. Nice, painful, brutal, swift justice, full of vengeance and blood and....erm...." Legate smiled slightly at Sally's overeagerness, and he placed a hand around her waist as she continued.
"My love, your father's death will not have been in vain, for he will help us catch the werewolves. You'll see, everything will be all right. Your father will be proud of this village, and especially of you." Sally embraced Legate tightly, then slowly walked off to comfort her aunt Cailin and her cousins.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Roa

I should hope very much that we aren't going to lynch that many innocents in this game, but we may very well do so if we aren't actually looking for wolves.

Originally Posted by Roa

that may or may not help us in finding wolves

Originally Posted by Roa

We should focus on wolf hunting.

Bah! Why bother trying to find Wolves?

There aren't any!

At least, not what any of us would call Wolves.

In other villages the WWs work together and know their fellow pack members. In this village... well, honestly, there's no way the EW told all his WWs who he is and who their fellows are. That would be too risky.

Thus a "Wolf" is simply an Ordo who counts as a WW in the tally.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Bah! Why bother trying to find Wolves?

There aren't any!

At least, not what any of us would call Wolves.

In other villages the WWs work together and know their fellow pack members. In this village... well, honestly, there's no way the EW told all his WWs who he is and who their fellows are. That would be too risky.

Thus a "Wolf" is simply an Ordo who counts as a WW in the tally.

Now this is just flat out wrong. There's more than one way to catch a wolf. We needn't rely solely on looking for connections. Good wolves don't demonstrate any anyways, and yet they are catchable. In fact, I would say that perceived connections are the worst possible reason to suspect someone.

Now, posting faulty ideas and misinformation, on the other hand....

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Bah! Why bother trying to find Wolves?

There aren't any!

At least, not what any of us would call Wolves.

In other villages the WWs work together and know their fellow pack members. In this village... well, honestly, there's no way the EW told all his WWs who he is and who their fellows are. That would be too risky.

Thus a "Wolf" is simply an Ordo who counts as a WW in the tally.

Phantom says "Bah!" I say "Bwah????"

The wolves still are wolves, and I'm in no mood to treat them with more grace than in any other occasion. The only difference is that they (assumedly) don't know the identities of their fellows, or even their ringleader. I still say it's possible to find connections, as the EW may force them to act contrary to their normal playing style; then again, maybe not. It's worth a shot though, in any case.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I still say it's possible to find connections, as the EW may force them to act contrary to their normal playing style; then again, maybe not. It's worth a shot though, in any case.

This quote yesterday from Sally seemed way too...sane and middle-of-the-road for her, which made me very suspicious. However, she seems to have reverted to her usual lunatic posting style sometime during the Night, because today she sounds completely normal. I don't know if there's anything in it, or if yesterDay was a fluke.

Eonwe's vote for the phantom yesterDay in post #156 is just plain surreal. First, he called out Roa for voting tp after she had criticized sally for doing the same, then after a bandwagon had begun to develop around tp, Eonwe goes and votes against tp himself, backing his vote up with a statement which is impossible to prove (either true or false) and a cocky, empty accusation (which tp seemed to find funny...though he has been laughing an awful lot). In this, Eonwe looks like an inexperienced and clumsy wolf who is not doing a good job of blending in, who is trying to simultaneously be casual, critical, and bold.

I must agree, however, with Eonwe that Roa looks awfully bad for criticizing sally's vote against tp shortly before voting against him herself in post #122. And as much as I didn't like she and tp dominating the discussion yesterday, it's bothering me even more how tp is continuing to do so today. Five posts already today, I think? It seems unhealthy for the village to hear so much of one voice.

Diamond18's post #208 is problematic, first because it provides little/poor reasoning behind her vote against the innocent Nerwen (though, obviously, she could only have known Nerwen was innocent if Di were a Wizard), and second, because in it she appears to be trying to be neither good nor bad, and we all know that You're Gonna Have To Serve Somebody. There isn't the middle road that she claims to be walking.

I really don't like the inordinate number of supposedly random votes. It may simply be a product of having a huge village, because it's hard to get one's sights on any one particular person, but I still don't like it.

I don't think I've played with Lalaith before, so perhaps this is just her posting style, BUT yesterDay her posts seemed far too chipper, matter-of-fact, friendly, and generally unhelpful for her to be genuine. Like I said, maybe that's just my bad first impression, but I'm going to watch and see if it persists toDay.

Ok. Sorry about the laundry list. I just went through and typed my notes from yesterDay.

EDIT: I crossed with about fifty people, I don't even know where it starts. But I see that tp posted some more...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Our odds might be tough...but then again I think it could go either way. Also, don't forget werewolves can be turned back into ordos. Goodness, my head hurts just thinking of all the possible things that could happen these coming Days and Nights. Anything is possible.

Meanwhile, I need some time to mourn over the death of my father as well as Eomer (who was also a kindly man and will be dearly missed). Kath, I need a hug...

I take statements like this as fairly suspicous comments, all but the bolded one most of all. I don't know why they just don't sit well with me. It always makes me think they are trying to distance themselves with nightly activity.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Mormegil

I'm only to this point but I must agree with the phantom here. The EW is the key to our success or theirs. (Oh, I can't wait until people misread that statement!) Anyway the EW is the deciding factor. If we get him/her early on the chance of victory becomes that much greater or rather our chance of defeat that much less, either way it's important. Factors such as RL time and availability are definately plausible factors to consider.

"I'm afraid I must side with the sister of my son's wife in this case, Morm," Shasta said quietly, moving with the stately grace of the aged to stand next to Roa, walking stick planted firmly in the dust. "Should we even begin to be able to search out this evil wizard, I should think it would still take some time before we would be able to do anything - indeed, it seems only her counterpart would be able to affect her in any way. By the time the evil one would be vulnerable, I estimate that there could be as many as six of her minions at work in our village. It makes me wonder, indeed it does, at the seemingly-insignificant way you, my daughter-in-law's sister's husband's brother-in-law, and my inquisitve grandson Phantom, seem to think similarly, in error."

He turned to Roa and offered his arm.

"My dear, you look a bit pale and shocky. Please, do me the honor of accompanying me back to our home. I'm sure my wife can whip up something to help you, and we should carry the news of what has happened to her and my sister, assuming they have not heard already."

[Lhunardawen]

Oh, my poor dead father. You had it coming, I'm afraid...you're too wise to be left alive if the wolves couldn't get you to join them.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Aw, too bad. I lost my future father-in-law! Ah, well at least he died knowing his daughter would be happy.

That is if she lives through this.

I don't like the sound of this, my dear. In fact, I'm not sure I like the sound of what you've been saying so far. Heaven help me if I'm actually engaged to a wizard.

Originally Posted by sally

"Lhuna, my dear cousin, are you sure you know what you're doing? You certainly have picked an odd'un."

You know, this is a perfectly sound question.

I'm siding with Roa that it is more important for us to find the wolves than the EW. I think there will be enough of that during the Nights, with the GW trying to look for her herself (if all her gifteds stay alive, that is), and she could be asking her gifteds to do the same, for all we know. My point is, the GW knows her job and we can trust her to do it. Our role here is to look for the wolves, because they're our immediate foes.

You're right, phantom, that it will be tougher to look for them since we can't rely on connections. But history has proved that lynching a wolf in these circumstances is possible. There are other things to consider, like general posting sense and helpfulness and all that. I guess we could partly be guided by keeping the EW in mind, though. I think the EW would prefer wolves less likely to be lynched than the very brilliant ones who attract the noose like flowers to bees.

By the way, this is just a suggestion, but I think that after the initial rantings about the dead, maybe we could do away with the RPG style of writing. Nogmod didn't require it, if my memory's to be trusted, and they're kind of hard to read through. It will be bad enough to have to crawl through so many posts with this large a village.

[the phantom]

I'd love to stay and chat, but I simply must get some sleep. Early morning tomorrow.

I will check in briefly, go to work for a bit, and then return for the last few hours of the day.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Sally

I still say it's possible to find connections, as the EW may force them to act contrary to their normal playing style; then again, maybe not. It's worth a shot though, in any case.

Shhh... don't pursue that subject any further.

You are right of course that the WWs might have been given certain... erm... directions... I don't want to be too specific here... I'd rather not have people start posting their thoughts on the matter (ie giving examples). It might be better just to watch for it, for mentioning a specific maneuver may cause the WWs not to use it, where as if we'd keep mum they might do it and then we can spot it if you see what I mean.

Oh, and lovely family tree there.

Originally Posted by Ka

I understand that it makes sense to keep all of your ducks in a row and use them in good time, but why would someone in such a position be so nervous about whom they relate with, if they are the only ones who can talk with them?

I'm not sure I'm understanding what you are saying in this section. Are you questioning the assumption that the WWs won't know each other or the EW?

[the phantom]

As far as thinking about who the EW would pick....

First, the EW didn't actually pick his three WWs- he submitted a list of names, and three people off the list were randomly assigned to be WWs.

In addition, the "who" doesn't matter nearly so much as the "how many". If I was the EW I'd take six mediocre WWs over two brilliant ones any day. In other words the EW will simply pick people that he thinks are not likely to be scried or lynched. If he picks well then the game is his.

Sure, on one hand if he scries me then I can make all kinds of devilish suggestions etc, but if I'm a likely lynch/scry target then it isn't worth it.

Btw, I'd kind of like to be scried multiple times by the two of you during this game. Not on the same night, mind you! I just think it would be fun to switch sides and maybe get to chat with both Wizards in the course of one village.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'm not sure I'm understanding what you are saying in this section. Are you questioning the assumption that the WWs won't know each other or the EW?

Mostly that of the WW(s) not knowing the EW, in light of the fact that they cannot become very maverick if all their decisions and acting for the next day is determined via the EW's approval/disapproval. Though, then again the EW might simply use the WW(s)' range of influence individually and still have what they want without loosing any power up to them if they don't know one another, but still they have to submit any ideas off to the EW. That stratification of authority does give everyone else some advantage, but not much.

... I'm going to analyze the rules for the billionith time before I cross my own eyes.

Edit:

Originally Posted by da rules

If the wizard reveals her identity to you you can PM her directly. If she reveals you the identity of your fellow-wolf (or wolves) and allows it you may also PM to them during the Nights. But that's up to your wizard to decide.

Sorry about all of that, just answered my own curiousity... Okay, obviously I need to stop multi-tasking too much with other things while playing.

((Thanks as well to Shasta and Roa, and sorry to bother everyone with stupid questions.))

[Shastanis Althreduin]

((Ka, I could be wrong, but I don't think the WWs communicate directly with the EW unless the EW instigates the communication; I believe they go through Noggie or a sub-mod. ))

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Mostly that of the WW(s) not knowing the EW, in light of the fact that they cannot become very maverick if all their decisions and acting for the next day is determined via the EW's approval/disapproval. Though, then again the EW might simply use the WW(s)' range of influence individually and still have what they want without loosing any power up to them if they don't know one another, but still they have to submit any ideas off to the EW.

The reason the EW may not want the wolves to know her identity is because if the GW scries a werewolf, that wolf imediately changes sides and becomes an ordo. More importantly, an ordo who knows the identity of the EW and can share it with the village. Each wizard wants to protect their own identity sso that they can challenge the other wizard on their own terms, ie. when the conditions are in favor of their respective teams. So the EW is hesitant to the wolves any information.