Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Rikae

That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.

I am aware of that. I would like to think of her as Innocent. I'm not fully convinced though.
If she's a Wolf, the kills have been to her favour.

What do you, Rikae, think about her?

What are your, Durelin, conclusions at the moment? (I hope she comes soon.)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Volo

What do you, Rikae, think about her?

I think she's creepy and wolfy and has been so for a while.
Actually, although I voted for Mac, I think lynching Durelin toDay could also be a good idea... although we'd probably learn more by lynching Mac.
I'm not sure about the likelyhood of them being wolves together, though. I'll have to go back and look at their interactions more closely...

[Mithalwen]

Sorry to be dense but who is Lily?

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Sorry to be dense but who is Lily?

A Little Green has many names. That's one of them, devised by Mac.

[Mithalwen]

Thanks Volo....

[Volo]

Nerwen, Day2

Rikae is the first to mention Nerwen (except for Ka, but Ka's post was irrelevent). She finds Nerwen less and less sincere.

Mac finds her Innocent enough, although less so after Volo's #206.

Lommy thinks of Nerwen as the only Innocentish person.

Lily finds Nerwen and Ka Innocent.

Volo suspects Nerwen, reasons.

Durelin finds Nerwen's vote for Volo too easy, as Menel's vote for McCaber.

Nogrod: "I never seem to be able to suspect her but after Volo's point about her over-carefulness I'd say she needs to be looked at."


Conclusion: Lommy and Lily find her Innocent. Rikae continues suspecting her. Durelin is wary. Volo suspects, Nogrod and Mac become wary.
I'm trying to find out Nerwen's possible contacts to others and if she is being framed. I can't say that I'm making much progress - I said summaries aren't too useful .
Lommy and Lily look most suspicious out of these.

On to Day3 - the whole picture might show something.


EDIT: Xd with Nogrod

[Mithalwen]

In case I can't get back (I may be able to but the library slinging me off in a few minutes) I am going to vote then explain based on my rereading of the first days and hoping Rikae's instincts are right.

++ Macalaure

sorry son.....

[Mithalwen]

Reasons in brief:

Nerwen pointed out that gifteds can be useful. While I know it should make the ordos work I wonder if there was an element of gloating on page one. Nogrod and Mac seemed particularly happy about it . Both would be likely early dream choices had we a seer.

Mac raised suspicion of Nog after he had posted once. Not a bad wolf trick since it is seldom impossible to make Nogrod look suspicious. tbc if possible

[Volo]

Day3

Durlin finds Nerwen's and Lommy's votes too easy.

Nogrod analyses her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So looking at Nerwen kind of makes me uneasy. She's too careful to my taste and trailing the suspicions others have made as I know she can make cases herself. She has talked about busy scheduals and I'm quite ready to believe in that sort of thing but somehow she looks a bit too careful.

If that's enough to lynch her...?

Well she at least moves up a noch upwards on my suspicion-list...

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

I don't quite understand this, I'll (finally) go through Menel after I've had dinner.

Volo suspects her and makes a big deal with going through this.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Nerwen indeed is a wolf her earlier declaration of Mac's innocence (alongside with Rikae and Lommy) would be wise tactic (at least if Rikae and Lommy actually are innocents) and her latest very easy "reconsideration" of his innocence would be a forced reaction as she clearly sees she has no believable way to protect her mate any more. All this surely presupposes Mac's guilt.

Links Nerwen's possible guilt with Mac's. You know, I'm beginning to suspect Nogrod a bit, he has been hiding a lot of his thoughts it seems and agreeing with people only after they have posted first. If Mac is lynched and is Innocent, I would make a connection between Nerwen and Nogrod.


Final conclution after dinner, before Menel.


EDIT: Xd with Mith.

[Macalaure]

Ironically, the fact that Nerwen seems to find no fault with Lommy at all makes me feel better about her. Any wolf would have sown at least some suspicion into it.

Originally Posted by Volo

Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Summaries are an utter waste of time to do or read - as long as they don't contain analysis. I've come to think that analyses tell you very little about the analysed person, but a lot about the analyser him/herself. It's not easy to fake an entire analysis without letting your fangs shine through. I'm eagerly awaiting Lommy's analysis of me for that reason.

It's good to see some people suspect Durelin. And at least Volo has an open eye for Lommy and Lily. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see why everybody else is so quick to say Lommy is just Lommy. Apart from other suspicious things she did, she's been telling people she's playing the way she always does at least five times or so! A wolf wouldn't do that, you say? Please tell me why an ordo would! Once or twice I wouldn't call suspicious, but that often? Come on.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I know this is a bad argument gamewise but as I'm still thinking Mac as one of my top suspects to be one of the wolves the fact that Rikae - whom I feel to be more innocentish than wolfy - goes for him that determinedly with her guts and feelings kind of assures me about it. There is something like a very real sense in which one could say those two should be able to feel or see when the other is bluffing more than with some of us others - like how I feel Lommy to be quite innocentish now as she's my daughter and I see her acting just soo Lommyishly...

I don't mean to be rude, but I fear Rikae thinks higher of her ability to read me than is warranted. I agree that her behaviour feels innocent, but I'm not entirely certain. She fooled me before. Nogrod, I hope this is not too personal, but are sure you're not overestimating your ability to read Lommy, too?

Btw, I think it's unwise of you to let Durelin and Lily drop off your radar.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean it just doesn't make sense if there isn't at least one wolf in the "Gwathwagon" and "No-Boro"-lynch.

I heard my father tell a tale of the time when he was insignificantly younger than I am now. It taught me never to underestimate the confusability of ordos.

I'm sorry, but I have to say that, now looking at Mith's reasons for her vote, I think I haven't received so many bad-reasoned votes in over 15 villages than in this one here.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Volo

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

Look, I said before that there's nothing much to go on with her– it's more of a general bad feeling she's giving me, as if she's making sure she never says anything definite. I don't know.

Originally Posted by Volo

Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Nerwen, the feels too easy person.
I've rethought her toDay's posts. Her decision that Lommy is Innocent looks like decided during the Night before the summary/analysis.

I have no idea what to say to that, Volo, except that it wasn't.