Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

Menel, I am not trying to absolve Mac– in fact I'm saying that I'm re-thinking my opinion of him. I did not detail what I meant by his "edginess" because I'd only be repeating observations already made by Greenie and Rikae.

What in Middle-earth do you mean by "valid criticisms"? Mac can't have let slip that he knew McCaber was a wolf. McCaber wasn't a wolf.

[Nerwen]

I said I'd look at Durelin.

Earlier I couldn't get a read on her, except that this:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Okay, I feel now I can vote for McCab. I mean, how shocking that he returns suspicious of Gwath

sounded overdone, if you know what I mean.

Other than that, she hasn't said that much, but her posts yesterDay (#213) and toDay (#279 and #299) look like she's both trying to agree with everyone and suspect everyone at the same time. Possibly so she can safely jump on any given wagon that presents itself?

Admittedly, this is rather thin– and also I don't know how she usually plays– but I don’t think she should be allowed to slip by the way she’s doing.

Menel next.

[Macalaure]

Rikae's vote for me was.. unexpected. If this was the vote of a wolf, it was a bold one, because it sticks out badly and will come to haunt her in case I'm lynched and found innocent. But then, maybe the wolves play safe at night and bold at day. Playing differently at night and day is a good cover. I still like my other top suspects better than her, since they're being more sneaky.

I might be becoming too confident in my suspicion, Durelin, but your explanations don't sound too convincing. You say Lily is skating by neatly, which is very vague. Her placement should be considered but shouldn't make her a top suspect suddenly? Now really, what does that mean? You have somebody skating by, then you find something that you admit is suspicious, and you say it isn't that bad? That's an accusation and a defense within only one half of a sentence. By the way, it's the reasoning of her votes that makes her suspicious to me, not the placement. My apologies if you're innocent and honest about this, but you're also all of a sudden being suspiciously nice to me in your last post.

I had some reservations about calling Nerwen innocent the past two Days, but reading her posts of toDay finally make me confident in saying so.

Menel seems more innocent, too, but rather off the track. I think you're too fixed on a few people and lose objectivity. While this makes you appear innocent to me, it's not too helpful.

[A Little Green]

Okay I don't have time now to write anything long and will be gone for most of the Day, but I'll certainly be back a few hours before deadline.

From toDay's posts, Mac looks worse, I'm baffled about Nerwen and feel better about both Nog and Menel.

I've got to go now. Sorry.

[Nerwen]

I’ve ending up analysing Menel in more detail than Durelin, because there’s more to go on (whereas she seems to be trying to be as vague as possible).

Day 1.

#20. Says Lommy is provoking Gwath and “casting suspicion on him for no good reason”. Makes prediction: he will suspect Boro who will prove innocent.

#23. Says Lommy is “jokingly casting suspicion” on Gwath. Says this is a wolf-tactic.

#33. (I think replying to Boro’s comment about Lommy’s playing style) “To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.”

To quote myself on the same Day (#59):

looks to me like he's saying, "See? I didn't jump on Boro's suggestions at all!"

Says his comment on Boro was because Boro has usually been innocent when he suspected him.

#43. Is (quite reasonably, I think) puzzled by Mac jumping on Nogrod’s line about “protecting our assets”.

#72. Doesn’t know why Mac thought Nogrod’s line worth mentioning; doesn’t know what to make of McCaber.

#101. Lommy and Mac are odd; suspects Mac more. Doesn’t suspect Gwath. Votes Mac (gives no reason).


Day 2.

#179. Suspects Mac and McCaber.

#189. Agrees with Boro that Mith is suspicious. Votes McCaber on the grounds that he voted Gwath on such weak reasons.

Day 3.

#289. Says the “Caberwagon” will probably shed light on who the wolves are. Sees Nogrod, Volo and Mac as suspicious.

#291. Finds Nogrod’s analysis of me “revealing” and goes on to theorize that Mac and I are wolves together.

#302. Says I’m “trying to ‘suspect’ Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. (For the record: I'm not– I'm just trying to think it out.)

General comments: veering around like a weathervane, and seems willing to suspect whoever the last poster did. But is he a wolf trying to play safe, or just a bewildered innocent? I could read it either way.

EDIT: X'd with Mac and Greenie.
EDIT 2: fixed tags.

[Nerwen]

I need to look at some more people; still don't have any clear ideas on who the wolves are. This is like a replay of last game, only worse. (Hands up who still thinks gifteds are useless?)

Just a reminder to everyone: The Departure of Boromir means there are now three wolves vs seven innocents. If we don't get a wolf toDay, toMorrow could be the end, so please be very careful with your votes.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, a quick-ish posts before I'll start the analyses.

I don't like the way Mac casts suspicion on me. I dare to claim he knows me well enough that if he was innocent, he'd know that as a wolf I'd never ever play this way - unless I had suddenly become a ww genious, which (sadly) hasn't happened. If Mac had to follow his honest feelings instead of what could look suspicious, I doubt he'd suspect me. The same goes for Rikae too, but to a far lesser extent. They both know how I play and if they are without any knowledge of who's innocent and who's not, they should realise that I play as only an ordo-Lommy can. But if they are wolves, they need to fabricate their suspicions and grasp at suspicious behaviour - which is why they suspect me, because how I normally play does - I guess - look relatively suspicios on standard terms. Now, this logic doesn't possibly make sense to anyone else but me and it can't convince anyone else but me (for you can't know that I'm innocent, unless you're wolves), but nevertheless, I feel I'm right here and this is one of the main reasons I suspect and have suspected Mac in this game. And I know that probably looks like a very fishy thing to say, but it's true, it's how I feel. (And dare to call it wolvish and I'll say you are wolves too because I'd never dare to write anything like that as a wolf... )

Continuing on this logic, I find it rather troubling that while a couple of people have suspected me quite a lot even during this game, they have done nothing concrete about it. No cases against me, no votes. (I'm looking at Mac especially here.) Why? because they don't want a full-frontal retaliatory attack fro me because they have something to hide? Nah, that is possible, but I rather think it is because they know I'm innocent and getting an innocent experienced loudmouth lynched never looks too good.

What else? Since Nogrod's analysis Nerwen has felt less innocent. Actually, I look at everything she says with a reservation I did not have before and there's something evil-looking in there. Now I'm slightly concerned about how I was this well turned by Nogrod's analysis and will refrain commenting on Nerwen before I've analysed Nogrod.

Even though I feel this way, I feel a bit alarmed about Menel's quick jump to supporting Nogrod's somewhat critical Nerwen-analysis. It looks like he really had no reservations about Nogrod's motives or that he didn't really consider Nerwen but rather jumped on what could later become a bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't know what you're talking about (what contradiction?), and I think you're pushing your Nog, Rikae, Mac, (Boro) thing way to hard. You look like a wolf trying to get the village to lynch an(y) innocent loudmouth.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I will say that I don't like her "almost 100% certainty" one bit... primarily because she herself belongs on the list of experienced, loud and helpful players if anyone does, and by highlighting the others she manages to sidestep the spotlight.

(In response to both) Sorry, I don't understand your logic. First off, Mac, if I was trying to get someone killed, I think I'd rather be actually throwing points against him/her, not mentioning that I should do an analysis of him/her, which is a relative neutral thing to say and generally doesn't convince people to lynch the person in question. Fishy, my friend, fishy.
Rikae... I know I'm loud, I know I'm experienced (if you count by number of games, more experienced than you, Mac or Boro) and I know I can be helpful. But while all the four of you have seemed very confident throughout the game and I've only been baffled and not feeling I'm playing well at all, so I kind of feel inferior to you guys right now. I mean, I can see all the four of you strongly affecting other villagers' opinions, while I just can't see myself doing that in this game, rather just sailing here and there with my suspicions that are probably far off the mark. I hope that explained something...

I'm torn about Mith. On the other hand, there's something sinister around her, but on the other hand, her declaration of innocence speaks for her actual innocence and RL reasons are RL reasons... I think I should have a look at her, too, if I have time.

There's something very suspicious in Durelin's very manner toDay and it's confusing me. And no, I'm afraid I can't elaborate, it's more like a feeling.

Ok, now I'm off to do Macalysis as it seems like a rather urgent matter... then I will probably proceed to Noglysis to re-judge the him-Nerwen thing and lastly, if I have time, I'll look at Rikae who started to feel more innocent because of her vote. Although, I really wouldn't put it past her to vote her fellow like that.

See? I'm already assuming Mac's a wolf... not good...

[Volo]

Gah! This is terrible! Too much porridge, I just can't have it all.

By this time I'm quite sure that the Wolves would slip a few gloats in.


Before Nerwen's posts toDay, I felt she's a Wolf (and possibly in a team with Durelin), but after she looks more Innocent. I think I'll have to go through the whole case again. At the very least, she's putting some distance between herself and Durelin.


Mac has been a target of attacks based on gut feelings from both Rikae and Lommy, though both explained their gut feelings. Nogrod agreed with Rikae's explanation. Another mess.
I agree that during yesterDay's vote rush, Mac felt bad, a bit like in Nogrod's game - even to the point of teaming up with me (even though I did that myself with him, I regard anybody agreeing with me suspicious ). Still it was Rikae who felt like the gloating one.
Lommy on the other hand felt genuine, as she does toDay.


Lily is another subject altogether, she feels more Innocent than ever before, but I can't bring myself to agree with anything she says. Her style is provocative and she looks like grasping at straws. I think I'll have to reread what she has said.


I might as well go through everybody, starting with Durelin and Menel. What I said in this post has pretty much been based on my own feelings - I'll go and see if logicn and truth backs them up.

[Nerwen]

Lommynalysis:

I'm going to have to split this into three parts, because she's posted a lot.

Day 1

#4. Banter: teases “Gwathy”. Says

now we can pursue suspicious behaviour without worrying that we're flushing out gifteds.

So we have Lommy to thank for starting that particular ball rolling. All the same, I still can't see why people jumped on her for this post, which looks very innocent to me.

#5.

Just noticed this: looks like only wolves can talk now. So did we now reveal ourselves, Gwathie?

Now, I can understand why people might call that wolfish (double-bluffing and all), but I really think she’s just being silly– it’s only the fifth post, after all.

#10. More banter with Gwath.

#16. Says if she has no real suspect by the end of the Day, she will vote a non-contributor.

#18. Questions Mac’s suspicion of Nogrod. Says Mac is “odd”.

#19. (Answering Boro)

Boro, the flaw in your logic is that I'm always dead nervous and unsure as a wolf. I never really enjoy it. So if I'm genuinely confident and enjoying myself, I'm innocent. Which of course doesn't mean I couldn't try to feign confidence if I was a wolf. But I'm bad at deception so if I'm only playing confident I'm probably ringing false or overdoing it...

So we also have Lommy to thank for starting the “If I were a wolf I’d do X” fashion in arguments.

#21. (Answering Menel, who says she’s casting suspicion on Gwath)

Provoking? Yes, deliberatedly. Casting suspicion? *raises eyebrow* Not so that I can see it. That was a curious accusation.

#25. (Answering Menel again). Points out that her second post, if taken seriously, would incriminate her as well as Gwath.

#26. (Answering Mac). Says she’s not accusing him, jusy making an observation.

#61. (Answering Menel, who says playing styles show nothing).

As a wolf I never intentionally play differently, but it shows in my behaviour nevertheless so I do end up playing a bit differently.

Find Sally, Boro, and me innocent. Volo and McCaber have “an aura of hidden evilry”.

#67. Wonders where Greenie is. Says Mac thinks everyone is talking about him when they are not– a possible sign of wolfish paranoia.

#69. Does not like McCaber’s suspicion of Gwath. Thinks Rikae may be intentionally trying to involve the village in useless speculation about “the me-Mac-Boro-Sally-Durelin-Gwath thing”. Says the Ka’s meandering is normal.

#99. Agrees with Boromir that Volo is suspicious. Agrees with Boro and Greenie that Gwath’s vote is troubling, but cautions,

Gwath could be the easy newbie lynch victim. *sigh*

Makes a list:

Innocentish
Nerwen
Boro
Sally

Slightly innocentish
THE Ka
Menel

Neutral
Mith
Greenie
Durelin
Nogrod
Rikae

Suspicious-ish
Volo
McCaber
Gwath
Mac”

# 100. Says she should consider Nogrod innocent,

but some weird brake in my head restrains me from doing so. *shrugs*

#107. Could vote Volo, McCaber, Gwath or Mac. Agrees with Nogrod that “we should not vote vocal players without comparing their suspiciosness to their loudness”. Says she will leave Mac alone and vote Volo, McCaber or Gwathagor.

#110. Would rather vote Volo or McCaber than Gwath.

#125. Says Mac’s post on Nogrod is eally about Mac, and that his defensiveness makes her suspect him more.

#131. Says voting Gwath feels wrong

but voting Boro would feel even more so... *sigh*

#136. Votes McCaber, “to whatever end”.

#139. (I think answering Nogrod, who says we should look at Volo and McCaber): “What?”

(Yes, very short post).

#145. (After DL) Asks if Volo’s vote counts as a vote for Gwath or The Ka.

Comments: Well, on Day One Lommy is indecisive, throws suspicion around, and now and then it looks as if she's taking instruction from Nogrod. (Also I find that "*sigh*" thing she does rather irritating). However, my impression here is that she's innocent and behaving a bit erratically as a result of having come under heavy fire almost immediately.

Lommy: Day Two coming soon to a WW thread near you.

EDIT: fixed tags.

EDIT 2: fixed more tags. X'd with Volo, Lommy.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't like the way Mac casts suspicion on me. I dare to claim he knows me well enough that if he was innocent, he'd know that as a wolf I'd never ever play this way - unless I had suddenly become a ww genious, which (sadly) hasn't happened. If Mac had to follow his honest feelings instead of what could look suspicious, I doubt he'd suspect me. The same goes for Rikae too, but to a far lesser extent. They both know how I play and if they are without any knowledge of who's innocent and who's not, they should realise that I play as only an ordo-Lommy can. But if they are wolves, they need to fabricate their suspicions and grasp at suspicious behaviour - which is why they suspect me, because how I normally play does - I guess - look relatively suspicios on standard terms. Now, this logic doesn't possibly make sense to anyone else but me and it can't convince anyone else but me (for you can't know that I'm innocent, unless you're wolves), but nevertheless, I feel I'm right here and this is one of the main reasons I suspect and have suspected Mac in this game. And I know that probably looks like a very fishy thing to say, but it's true, it's how I feel. (And dare to call it wolvish and I'll say you are wolves too because I'd never dare to write anything like that as a wolf... )

What I find extremely suspicious about this bit, is how conscious you are about your way of playing. You seem to be convinced that you're playing precisely like you always play and, whether this is true or not, an ordo wouldn't be aware of it. An ordo usually automatically falls into his/her common style of play, but not intentionally. Only wolves, and maybe gifteds occasionally, do that.
You are admitting you're acting suspicious, in a lommy-ish "unsuspicious" way. However, in the paragraph beneath, you say that nobody has yet made a case against you. You seem to be aware of doing suspicious things without having people point them out to you - again, typically wolvish.

Continuing on this logic, I find it rather troubling that while a couple of people have suspected me quite a lot even during this game, they have done nothing concrete about it. No cases against me, no votes. (I'm looking at Mac especially here.) Why? because they don't want a full-frontal retaliatory attack fro me because they have something to hide? Nah, that is possible, but I rather think it is because they know I'm innocent and getting an innocent experienced loudmouth lynched never looks too good.

YesterDay I had to vote so save myself, the Day before I didn't vote for you because there was no chance to actually lynch you, and I don't like throwing my vote away like that.

Sorry, I don't understand your logic. First off, Mac, if I was trying to get someone killed, I think I'd rather be actually throwing points against him/her, not mentioning that I should do an analysis of him/her, which is a relative neutral thing to say and generally doesn't convince people to lynch the person in question. Fishy, my friend, fishy.

If you were innocent, yes. But you aren't. You're vaguely pointing in the directions of people you'd like to get rid of, hoping the ordos bite on it and make the strong cases by themselves. Considering your night kills, you and your wolfmates are obviously looking for the big ones lynching each other during the Days. Your Day behaviour, and that of Durelin and Lily, too, for that matter, fits perfectly to the wolf kills.

Rikae... I know I'm loud, I know I'm experienced (if you count by number of games, more experienced than you, Mac or Boro) and I know I can be helpful. But while all the four of you have seemed very confident throughout the game and I've only been baffled and not feeling I'm playing well at all, so I kind of feel inferior to you guys right now. I mean, I can see all the four of you strongly affecting other villagers' opinions, while I just can't see myself doing that in this game, rather just sailing here and there with my suspicions that are probably far off the mark. I hope that explained something...

Oh, for crying out loud... I have never seen anybody, including you (who claims to play like she always does!), fish for pity like that. If you really wrote these lines honestly, then I'm honestly sorry for being so incompassionate, but I highly, highly doubt it.


++Thinlómien

Ridiculously early vote, I know. I also know that I might need my vote to save myself toDay once more. However, I'm sure nearly beyond doubt that Lommy, Durelin, and Lily are our wolves. This makes me less afraid of being lynched myself, because in that case you will have the benefit of knowing this opinion is honest.

[Thinlómien]

Ok, I did some of my Macalysis (Day1 and the beginning of Day2) but now my friends came to see me so I'll finish and post it later.

edit: semi-xed with Volo, Nerwen and Mac (who is a wolf obviously because he voted me - I'll elaborate on that later)

[Volo]

You know what? I've got a feeling that either both Lommy and Mac are Wolves, or neither is.