Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

What do you mean by "a better case"? While I understand your point, I, for my part, will vote for the one I find most likely to be a wolf, whatever that means, regardless of whether he/she is silent or not. Simple as that.

I do have to disagree with you here. It always seems to be that those who are in the fray are also more easily seen as suspicious. Those who say things give food for thought to others unlike those who hide in the shadows. With the latter group it's always like tossing a coin. Therefore it's easier to come up with a case against one who talks a lot or tries to make a difference as there is lot to take hold on to. That in turn sadly turns out just too often with lynching an innocent who could have helped us in the later stages of the game and leaving us surrounded by enigmas we can't say anything about. Or how do you suspect one silent person over another?

So it's not simple as that. We need to take account of the relative risk. Like Mac toDay. I know he is a good player and he could really help us were he innocent. Thence I'm somewhat reluctant to vote for him just based on what I have on him now as it is only Day1 and there's generally quite little to go on with anyone. Therefore I need to ask myself whether I have a good case enough to vote for a vocal player on Day1 or whether I should try to find out a "sneaker"-wolf and go for her/him as in the beginning of the game it's easier to actually accomplish than later - and because the overall chances of getting a wolf onDay1 are smaller now than later so the relative risk for blunder is smaller as well.

EDIT: x'd with Volo and Rikae

[Meneltarmacil]

Let's see here:

Lommy and Mac have been noted as odd, and I'm inclined to suspect Mac more.

Gwathagor... Well, I've read what you've been saying about his defense of Durelin and Sally, and it doesn't seem TOO suspicious at this point, given that Mac really did seem to be more aggressive than Boro. The only odd thing I can see about it is the words he used, and I've seen enough of his style lately to know that he tends to take things personally to a certain extent, enough that this sort of abruptness isn't overly strange for him.

I think I'll be voting for

++Macalaure

for now. It's a bit weak, I know, but none of us really have a whole lot to go on.

[Mithalwen]

Well I am here later than I hoped and am somewhat distraught to see that sibling rivalry among my children is getting extreme and that my own dear husband has at least one vote (Has anyone a tally - I have so little time). Haven't you heard of the rehabilitation of offenders? He is an ex-pickpocket you know.... and while I can't guarantee he isn't a wild beast under the ...
... cover of darkness he is the only husband I have and I would like to keep him for a bit!

A child on the other hand might be expendable....


OK time for a re read and I hope a more serious post or two before it is too late.

[Thinlómien]

Basically I could vote Volo, McCaber, Gwath or Mac and I have hard time deciding. I'm inclined to agree with Nogrod's logic of not voting vocal players without comparing their suspiciousness to their loudness, so I think I will leave Mac be for toDay, unless I have to choose between him and someone who simply looks more innocent. So I will vote either Volo, McCaber or Gwathagor.

edit: xed with Mac, Noggie and Rikae

[Boromir88]

Although there's one thing I'm a bit worried about the two and that's the fact that they have been so easy and nice towards me toDay.~Nogrod

Frankly Nogrod I don't think I will ever lynch you on day 1, unless if you feel like admitting you're fanged than I would. Because you're going to sound sensible and reasonable no matter what, and that's no reason to vote for you on Day 1. I'm sure sometime down the road if we are still both alive we will have our inevitable battle for who will be the supreme super talker, but nah it will never happen on Day 1.

++Gwathagor

Making the tally:

Boro: 2 (sally, Gwathagor)
Mac: 1 (Menel)
Gwath: 1 (Boro)

As an aside for everyone else's ears (so this is not for my wife) if I die soon...just know I don't trust her.

Edit: crossed with a lot of people...I have a feeling this is going to be one crazy ending at the deadline

[Thinlómien]

Hmmm... I actually think I'd rather vote Volo or Cabbie than Gwath. Is there anyone else who agrees with me or will I just be content with voting Gwath?

edit: xed with Nogs

[Nogrod]

McCaber surely is a candidate... just the way one forgets he's playing should remind us of it and his only post wasn't the most sincerish.

But then again... *oh these last minute doubts* ... maybe we're being hasty? Truth to be said I'm now almost accustomed myself that Gwath could be the one we should go for and so I find myself troubled bringing a new candidate to the fore twenty minutes before the deadline... That's how being a submarine works: in the end one starts to waver voting them after forgetting they even existed.

[Volo]

Being more odd than usual? I don't think playing badly counts as being odd. I have little idea to what to do and am uselessly lazy, though I hope I'll try more if I survive 'til later. And the sad part is that I really shouldn't die, because anybody is a better lynch candidate than yourself, always, because there are no more valuable Gifteds.


I might as well do something odd, because the current situation isn't leading to anywhere.

Gwath might be a Wolf, but feels too easy.
Boro might be a Wolf, but I'm reluctant to voting him.
McCaber doesn't look especially suspicious, just non-existent. It's one reason to vote him, but such people usually end up as Innocent.

I say that I'm not catching a Wolf right now and will turn completely around and vote for somebody who hasn't made anything that I regard as flaws yet.


EDIT: Xd with everything since #114.

[A Little Green]

Honestly now, I'm quite at a loss with my vote.

Well, anyway, here it comes.

++ Gwath

Because his vote was just... horrible. Besides, his lynching will give more light to many things.

My other choice would have been McCaber because his posts have a suspicious air and in addition to that he has been contributing very little.


EDIT: x'd with very many people

[Nogrod]

Mac: your post makes you look more innocent to me... just saying it now if I'm not around toMorrow.

Agreement / disagreement aren't the marks of innocence / evil.

[Thinlómien]

Mac! You said that post is on Nogrod. If you ask me, it was all about you, not him and it strengthens my suspicion of you... you did the same defensive mistake again.

edit: xed with a lot

[Macalaure]

Sally -> Boro
Gwath -> Boro
Menel -> Mac (Boro 2, Mac 1)
Boro -> Gwath (Boro 2, Mac 1, Gwath 1)
Lily -> Gwath (Boro 2, Gwath 2, Mac 1)
Rikae -> Gwath (Gwath 3, Boro 2, Mac 1)
Mith -> Gwath (Gwath 4, Boro 2, Mac 1)

I would prefer to give Gwath another day, as I'm really not sure of him. On the other hand, I would really not like to see Boro go. And I have no idea for a responsible and feasible last minute counter-waggon.

I don't like toDay's voting.

[Durelin]

Okay, I feel now I can vote for McCab. I mean, how shocking that he returns suspicious of Gwath. I will lynch myself if Gwath turns out a wolf, though.

++McCaber

I do want to know what's up with Macalaure and Boro, though. As Lommy just pointed out about Mac's last post, both of them seem to be posting about themselves a lot.

[Mithalwen]

Pfft - in that case my own true love I shall check the insurance policies before I vote ..... if you don't know me by now...

[Macalaure]

I find Boro's behaviour a little too authoritative, but otherwise more innocent. Btw, Boro, to the best of my knowledge, A Little Green is female.

I don't like Gwathagor's vote, and I think Boro has a point against him.

I used to agree with Boro on Menel - until I saw his vote. It looks to much like "let's start a bandwaggon against a widely suspected villager". But I guess I'm still overestimating the amount of attention given to me.

I can't get a read on Sally, Volo and THE Ka.

I'm not sure about Lommy. The argument that she wouldn't talk about her possible wolvishness if she really was a wolf is a valid one, but she simply doesn't give me an innocentish feeling. I can't explain why. I have the same unspecific bad feeling about Nogrod. I don't understand why I'm so suspicious to him, but I find the eagerness with which he pursues this suspicion worrisome.

Nerwen I used to think innocent, but her post about McCaber doesn't look good, very hasty actually. But then, a wolf might like to give her posts a more polished look.

Rikae looks innocentish. So do Lily and Durelin.

Mith and McCaber are enigmas.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm not sure about Lommy. The argument that she wouldn't talk about her possible wolvishness if she really was a wolf is a valid one, but she simply doesn't give me an innocentish feeling. I can't explain why. I have the same unspecific bad feeling about Nogrod. I don't understand why I'm so suspicious to him, but I find the eagerness with which he pursues this suspicion worrisome.

Hmm. I also have an unspecific bad feeling about Lommy... trouble is, I have the same bad feeling about you. Now, what was that you said after the last game? Just because someone agrees with you doesn't mean [he] is innocent...? Yeah, gotta remember that...

Originally Posted by Mith

He is an ex-pickpocket you know.... and while I can't guarantee he isn't a wild beast under the ...
... cover of darkness he is the only husband I have and I would like to keep him for a bit!

That's great.

EDIT: X'd with BoroNogLom

[Macalaure]

I don't expect he's going to be lynched today, but here's a bit about Nogrod. Yes, I am aware this post is ridiculously defensive, but his reasons against me are too weak to not comment on it.

The same could be said of Mac as he is the next to continue this Lommy bandwaggon.

A bandwaggon? During the first hours of Day One? Come on.

But just looking at the placement of Mac's suspicion looks a bit bad indeed.

I placed it just after I read Lommy's post about me. I fail to see what's suspicious about that.

Mac's point about everyone discussing about him definitively looks that as it was not true.

I exaggerated by saying everybody was, yes. However, this point of yours (and others) is very flimsy.

His suspicions on Lommy also fit the idea of a wolf trying to help the downfall of someone else.

My suspicions were early ones, placed in order to see what responses from her (and maybe others) I could get. I fail to see your interpretation.

To Mac: as I said, I'm not happy to lynch you, on the contrary - as I said before. I'd rather see someone else go toDay.

Now, of course an evil Nogrod would neeever claim that.

[Nogrod]

It looks like a list time then... and some explanations about things I've not discussed this far.

I have a suspicion based on reasoning I've already explained:

Menel
Mac

The alarm-bells are ringing a bit louder now:

Gwath

as I tend to agree that his vote looks nasty indeed. Even though it might be based on just missing knowledge... calling Boro anti-rational surely sounds like a misconception... But his fast defence of Sally and Dury must be taken account as well.

A fifty-fifty case (if Gwath indeed is a wolf):

Sally
Dury

If Gwath is innocent it's harder to say: Sally seems her normal unfathomable self and Dury has improved a lot since her first post.

I'm uneasy about for different reasons (I'll try to elaborate if I have time):

Nerwen
Volo
McCaber
The Ka
LG

I'm not wishing to bring them up toDay:

Boro
Rikae
Mith

Boro and Rikae are sensible. Although there's one thing I'm a bit worried about the two and that's the fact that they have been so easy and nice towards me toDay. That's a bit disconcerting to be honest - not that I don't feel good about it, but that's just the problem. Somehow I'm not so concerned about Mith toDay even if her posting has been the least substantive - has given the least of what she thinks - this far (okay one could argue that The Ka or Sally contests the place). Maybe it's because I know she can be like that but may turn out very helpful later. Or is just so darn amiable person... But not her toDay with these grounds.

Feels somewhat innocent in earnest:

Lommy

She just looks her lively and happy penguin-self she is. When she is a wolf she tends to be a bit more uptight and careful like she said herself.

EDIT: X'd from Boro onwards...

[Nogrod]

Tally for Mith and others as well...

Boro 2 (Sally, Gwath)
Mac 1 (Menel)

Back to Volo and Gwath in a minute...

[Nogrod]

Okay. Even if I don't generally like this kind of reasoning I would say that Gwath might be a good candidate (my son!!! ) as he has raised enough eyerbrows with his overall presence this far, because of his easy /malicious-looking vote and because his death might shed some light to the Sally / Dury thing - in the end he's the factor that binds the two together.

I do also agree with those who say Volo has been acting even weirder than he normally does. I mean it has always been a bit hard for me to follow his reasoning but now I'm quite baffled.

To Mac: as I said, I'm not happy to lynch you, on the contrary - as I said before. I'd rather see someone else go toDay.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not wishing to bring them up toDay:

Boro
Rikae
Mith


[/B]

you'd have to eat us before you brang us up - is that an admission?

But really I have just not had time to be too substantive, Gwathaagor's eagerness might be just that but it would not be the first time a novice wolf made the first post (my old superstition ).

I don't see why Mac was so suspicious of Nogrod so soon ... rattled a small bell but I am rusty and not sure how mormal it is. I do know it is normal for Boro to try to stir things up a bit and since he only risks driving wolves rather than gifted from cover it may be a profitable activity.

And for some reason he always suspects me when I sense he is innocent and try to save him from a first day lynch. I am innocent and so the fact he says he doesn't trust me strengthens my feeling he is innocent too again.