Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Nerwen]

Gwathagor–

Early posts are just banter with Lommy– nothing there. Also makes a couple of posts of little or no substance. Then we have him saying this:

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

My point being, Boromir, that Durelin and Sally may simply have seen Mac's accusation of Lommy as more serious than yours. I don't think that the circumstances should give us any reason to think there's a conspiracy there. You might have a point regarding Mac appearing to switch his suspicions, but that looks more to me like first-day-fishing than anything creepy. That's all I was trying to say.

Now, Rikae says that he "jumps in" with a "defense" of Durelin and Sally.

Well, okay, you could see it that way... but you could also see it as Gwath just trying to be helpful and offer an alternative explanation. As it stands, I find that more likely.

[Nerwen]

McCaber–

Sole contribution is to follow this post of Gwath's

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I'm not going to say anything yet, NOT because I'm trying to fly under the radar, but because I'm not sure what to make of the first page. There's so much speculative finger-pointing that goes on on the first day, and so little substance. At this point, everyone looks equally suspicious to me.

I promise I'll contribute in a few hours after I've eaten.

Meneltarmacil used my full name!

With this

Originally Posted by McCaber

Nice to see you, too, Sally. As much as I don't want to become a Cabe-kabob, maybe I'll actually give you something to look at this time. And Pappa Volo, I'll try not to disappoint you toDay.

I do enjoy the more experienced ones throwing around suspicion. So I think I'll try it too:

I like how Gwath is refraining from forming an opinion. He could be not trying to leave a paper trail of suspects. Not a full-on point yet, but it could become one.

Anyway, I'll return soon with some serious thoughts in a while. Supper awaits, if I can find some in this house of doom.

Which is to say that he's basically doing the same thing as Gwath– except for suspecting one person (also Gwath).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Gwathagor–

Early posts are just banter with Lommy– nothing there. Also makes a couple of posts of little or no substance. Then we have him saying this:



Now, Rikae says that he "jumps in" with a "defense" of Durelin and Sally.

Well, okay, you could see it that way... but you could also see it as Gwath just trying to be helpful and offer an alternative explanation. As it stands, I find that more likely.

Actually (and in answer to Gwath as well) I was referring more to his question to Boro in his previous post -- which, though it doesn't mention Sally or Durelin by name, is a defense of them, whether that was his primary intention or not; it is a question implying their behavior was not suspicious.
Besides, Boro clearly did not suspect Lommy less strongly than Mac did - so it is also a groundless defence. It just strikes me as very knee-jerk and jumpy (the question and the follow-up.)
Now, back to reading the thread...

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I think I made it quite clear that I'm not making a big deal out of it. I only mentioned it because it was the only suspicious thing I saw at all at that point. Should I have said nothing at all instead?

I probably wouldn't have read it as suspicious at all, and I don't see why it was worth discussing.

As for McCaber, I don't know what to make of him. He seems to be a suspicious character regardless of what his role is.

[Nogrod]

I guess I've never did this kind of thing before but here's what I have gathered from the thread this far what comes to people in someway - more or less seriously - suspecting or defending others. They are in the order they have appeared in the thread. I'm trying to elaborate on them after I post this one as I started this one to both look at whether some people are trying opportunistically to ride on others' suspcions or who have been careful not to open their minds as to whom they suspect.

If I have misrepresented anyone's points please correct me but I have tried to explicate everyones points in a most economical manner.


Mac getting a funny feeling about Nog because mentioning the wolves being after our assets freely.

Boro feeling bad about Lommy for joyousness and lightness.

Lommy: Mac is odd (not necessarily a wolf though).

Menel suspecting Lommy for suspecting Gwath.

Mac pointing out Lommy's fast to accuse & self-explained innocense.

Sally defends Lommy, questions Mac & MEnel for their atack on her. Reminds of her before the game wish to kill McCaber.

Nogrod suspects Menel for bandwaggoning. Think's Mac's joke raises eyebrows. Feels Lommy mostly innocent.

McCaber tries Gwath because he restrains from forming an opinion.

Nerwen doesn't like people suspecting Lommy so much.

Dury doesn't see anything wrong with Lommy, agrees that Mac jumped on her (did he?) but she doesn't see it suspicious either.

Boro points out Sally & Dury pointing out Mac's jump on Lommy: so wolves trying to attract suspcion on Mac based on Lommy's initial suspicion?

Gwath asks which one accused Lommy more, Mac or Boro himself.

Menel puzzled by Mac's initial suspcion of Nogrod.

Gwath indirectly defending Dury and Sally.

Rikae says there's something slightly edgy in Mac on a first glance.

The Ka agrees with Nogrod's suspicions on Menel to trying to ride Boro's suspicion of Lommy.

Rikae's analysis: Nerwen's way of posting if wolvish but she always suspects her, there are things she doesn't like in Gwath (acting like a wolf-cub, the way he jumps on Boro, defence of Saly & Dury), Mac is odd, over-eager and over-apologetic, raises questions about Dury's handling of Mac-Lommy case. The result: Gwath maybe a wolf alongside either Saly or Dury, not entirely comfortable with Lommy & Mac.

Gwath saying he didn't so much defend Sally or Dury but was pointing a fault in Boro.

Nerwen sees Lommy's banter with Gwath innocent but her self-defence looks bad - adds she might be an innocent under pressure as well. Finds Mac rather jumpy but thinks he might just be trying to get people talking, seems to suspect Menel a bit (it was hard one to me to interpret), says The Ka might play safe-wolf -tactics talking a lot without saying anything.

Lommy finds Sally's craziness, Nerwen's pessimism and Boro's reasonableness innocentish. Volo and McCaber have an aura of hidden evilry but have posted to little to judge.

Nerwen says Sally looks wolvish but that's what she always looks like.

Mac says only Nerwen feels innocent.

Nerwen seems to hold Gwath innocentish.

Lommy suspects Mac on overestimating the discussion about himself (which is how wolves tend to feel).

LG finds Boro making her uneasy with his short, clever and uncommiting posts. Menel and McCaber are slightly worrying. She finds rather innocent: Rikae, Nerwen, Mac, Lommy and Gwath.

Lommy suspects McCaber for merely suspecting on suspicion's sake and not being honest. Is troubled with Rikae's discussion on the Boro-Lommy-Mac-Sally-Dury-Gwath -thingie.


Okay that's it. Thoughts to follow... (and I see there are already some new posts around...)

[Rikae]

OK, not much left here to go on, but if my years as an English major have taught me anything, it's how to write several pages about a half-page text.
Let's see what I can do here:

Nerwen seems so easily satisfied with the innocent explanations of Mac and Gwath's behavior and yet is suspicious of Menel for reasons I don't really understand... oh, and Nerwen, sorry if I offended you by saying I always find you suspicious -- but the alternative would be to simply find you suspicious. I'm trying to be fair...

Menel deserves a closer look ... he is somehow on the edges of things. He started off aggressive, but since then he's been unusually uncontroversial. Nerwen and somebody else (sorry, can't find it again) called him suspicious, but I'm not sure about the reasons... anyway, he shouldn't be ignored. If I have time, I'll look at him later.

I agree with Lommy about Mac's statement that everybody is talking about him -- it looks fishy. However, I could also see this as a reaction to the way the last several games have gone -- he *has* been the number one suspect on day one for a while. I'm keeping my eye on him, though.

I find it odd that Lommy accuses me of trying to focus everybody's attention on a controversy involving half the village! Statistically, there is probably a wolf in there, and I certainly think it's better to analyze what can actually be analyzed rather than taking a shot in the dark with a "quiet person" who may or may not be quiet toMorrow. If someone insists on lurking in shadows then too, I say lynch him/her... but even if we don't lynch one of the controversial figures, discussing them leaves a trail -- and the trails of dead innocents and wolves will be all the solid evidence we have in this game. There also wasn't any such concept as a "Lommy-Boro-Gwath-Sally-Durelin-Mac" situation until I coined it, and therefore there was nothing for me to continue. It's a way into the problem, nothing more... but maybe Lommy doesn't want us to have any handle on things?

Coming up with overarching concepts invariably pushes some considerations aside while spotlighting others -- however, it's a necessary start to wolf-hunting. Every individual, considered in isolation, doesn't reveal much, but the interactions do. It's the easiest thing in the world to suspect the people who create such concepts, because all one has to do is point out that they are trying to focus the village's attention. Well, that's exactly what I'm doing, because without focus, we'll get nowhere. I may be bringing myself down, but I intend to take some wolves with me... a controversy is exactly what we need for later analysis.

Well, sorry for being long-winded, but this issue gets me fired up. At any rate... I am still uneasy about Mac and Lommy, probably more so at this point than Gwath and Sally and/or Durelin. Still, it's good to see connections forming which might help us later...

EDIT: X'd with Menel

[Boromir88]

Before going to bed last night the one I felt most comfortable with was sally...and now that she promises she's innocent, well nothing's changed.

This morning I feel good about Rikae and Thinlomien.

Rikae because I think her suspicions of Gwath are an innocent one and she's onto something there (which I will get to more in a bit).

Thinlo, mostly because she passed my test. I'm always suspicious of Thinlo because of her "chipperness" and Thinlo always responds in some way similar to what she did..."If I was a wolf I wouldn't be like this." (And I'm pretty sure it's either Mac or myself who always find that even more suspicious). Anyway, point being Thinlo passed the test and her observation on Mac is spot on:

An interesting comment and one that might have more to it than it first reveals. I mean, if you ask me, everybody's not talking about Mac. Granted, he is among those most talked about, but he seems to imply he is the main subject of discussion (or that's the feeling I get from his tone), which, in my opinion, is not true and thus Mac has made a wrong evaluation. Ok, what about it? you might ask, everybody makes mistakes. Yes, I agree with that. But Macalaure seems to overestimate the suspicion and/or discussion around him especially and that is a rather wolvish mistake. I mean, I always do it as a wolf, however hard I try not to. Thus this little comment looks a bit sinister.

Nice observation and it is hard not to have that knee-jerk reaction of "I'm being suspected...it's only Day 1...crap" I think you remember all too well my Fenris Penguin days and perhaps 2 people raised some concerns about me and I felt a need to overly defend myself, because I was worried by all the "suspicion" eventhough as the ordinary villagers had observed wasn't all that much...and that led to my Day 1 downfall. I still can't stop that nervous reaction of "Thinlo is suspecting me...oh crap I'm feeling the noose!"

Secondly, I'm rather annoyed at myself at the moment. I just noticed that I have a tendency to automatically trust people who make long and fruitful(-looking) analyses of others. In this round, I find Rikae and Nerwen rather innocent. Rikae's jump on Gwath in her novel strikes me as slightly worrisome, though. I saw Gwath's post simply as a genuine offer of an alternative theory. Of course it is important to recognise the possibility of him defending sally and Durelin, but completely leaving out the alternative to that doesn't look good.~Greenie

This I find odd, he thinks Rikae looks rather innocent, yet her jump on Gwath is worrisome? Perhaps this is a defense against Gwath? Too early to say but it does look like a clever wolf tactic to make it look like you're defending someone "innocent" when you're really not you're inadvertantly defending someone else.

Let me explain, no that would be too long, let me sum up. It looks like Greenie is defending Rikae (saying she seems innocent), but that comment is only meant to divert us from who Greenie truly is defending (and that is Gwath). By saying, but Rikae's suspicion of Gwath looks "worrisome" because she left out the other alternatives. So, it's actually a defense of Gwath disguised under the "Rikae is innocent...but she worries me because of...blah blah blah.

but completely leaving out the alternative to that doesn't look good.

Since this is the first village I believe we have had the honor of being in together Greenie I'll let you in on a little secret. I'm an extremely biased person, so when I spot something I jump on that like a cat on a mouse and won't let up until I see that person dead (just ask Menel he's suffered from my biases far too often). I think too much thinking goes on (how ironic...I think), which can be a great weapon for me, but that sets me up to be easily fooled (just ask Nogrod I'll never forget that little under-handed, dirty, yet brilliant trickster).

[Boromir88]

Oh and please no more complaints about Day 1...I think it can be the most exciting and liberating days if you let it be so. Because, after Day 1 I actually have to do work and all this analyzing baloney that never helps me out anyway, but I continue to do it, but on Day 1 I don't have to. Just have the attitude of "Day 1 is my friend" and it'll be fine.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, I have to leave in like five minutes, and I just can't make up my mind. *curses herself for being so tired* So in lieu of any hard evidence, I'm just going to have to go with my gut. I find

++Boro

to be odd. He's not really said a lot, but what he says strikes me as just....I don't know, wrong. May just be the way he is, but at the moment it looks off to me so that's where my vote's gotta go.

Good morning little ones! Tiny Green, why do you sleep so long? Stop being sick and get well, I command thee! Or else let me sleep too. As for the rest of you, make some nice posties for me while I'm gone, savvy? And kill a wolfsie!

[Volo]

*sigh*

The only wibe I got, Sally had to mention it just in front of my nose.

While reading through the thread I got the feeling that somebody might be trying to frame Lommy. I mean she was quite in the middle of everything a while ago and slowly some people started calling her innocent. Something feels fake there.
The best "proof" to Lommy's innocence is exactly this, to me.

And with that idea I stumbled upon Boro's post #74. It fits well to what I thought of and I can't really say what it is but Boro is... overdoing it? Not exactly...

Ok, I noticed that I don't really have anything to say so I'll reread stuff.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Volo

And with that idea I stumbled upon Boro's post [URL]It fits well to what I thought of and I can't really say what it is but Boro is... overdoing it? Not exactly...

Eh? What's Boro overdoing, Volo? I can't really see what you're driving at here.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Seriously, Rikae, five dashes? Already?

Oh, I can do better. It's now the Boro-Durelin-Gwath-Lommy-Mac-Rikae-Sally situation, you see.

I don't understand either Sally's or Gwath's vote for Boro -- neither explained properly, and they both go up a couple notches on my suspicion meter for it. In fact, I may as well give that suspicion-meter -- however, in the interest of accuracy, it may not look typical:

Combination of Wolfish Irresponsibility (seeming eagerness to get a bandwagon rolling) and Wolfish Defensiveness:

Gwathy

Wolfish Defensiveness without Wolfish Irresponsibility:

Macalaure

Wolfish Irresponsibility without Wolfish Defensiveness:

Sally
Durelin
Lommy
Menel

Submarine-ishness:

THE Ka
McCaber
Mithalwen

None of the above:

Nogrod
Boro
Volo

...and all people with two "o"'s in their name, by default...

What to make of this? I'm afraid I can't decide. Sometimes apparent irresponsibility is just pot-stirring... sometimes apparent defensiveness is just ordoish indignation... often the newbie/oddball who looks most suspicious on day one is an ordo. Frequently, very frequently, the people who avoid all errors are evil... bah. I'm talking myself in circles... I'll await further developments.

EDIT: X'd with everything from Mr. 88's post #88, and fixed Volo quote.

[Rikae]

Oh, I left Nerwen out...
she goes in the "Neither" category, spoiling the nice double-o theme, or possibly in the "Irresponsible" one.

[Nogrod]

The first thing that jumps up from there is Menel's happiness to support Boro's idea of Lommy being suspicious with a very weak argument (the banter between Lommy and Gwath in the beginning). A wolf would like to confirm the suspicions on others than themselves early on - and Menel-wolf in particular knowing his lynch-rate on Day1's...

The same could be said of Mac as he is the next to continue this Lommy bandwaggon. Even though I must say that those people who have repeated that "Mac jumped on Lommy" I find a bit disturbing as well as I don't see his points as any straight attacks... But just looking at the placement of Mac's suspicion looks a bit bad indeed.

Gwath's indirect defence of Sally and Dury also looks a bit fishy to me. I do undertand that it could be seen as just giving another explanation to their posts but there is something in the way Gwath makes it that makes me a bit worried about it.

Menel's late wake up to question Mac's first-post suspicion on me looks quite out of context. Why say that (nothing new a host of people hadn't voiced already) at that moment? Was he looking at the possibility of adding to a possible Mac bandwaggon as there had been this "Mac jumped on Lommy" discussion just before it?


It's also interesting to see who we miss from the list of actually saying anything in suspcion or defence of anyone even if people have posted.

Nerwen's analysis are very roundabout. It was a task to try and explicate whether she was actually suspecting someone or not. McCaber's suspicion was a sham. The Ka has only once backed my suspicion on Menel in passing. Gwath has only made an indirect question on Boro. Dury, Volo and Mith haven't suspected anyone - but there's just a post each this far from them to be sure (okay, two for Volo).

[Durelin]

I think Boro is being too combative to be a wolf. Or people not reading threads entirely and thoroughly ruffles his fur enough that he forgoes all restraint.

Okay, never played with Sally, but uh...is this *oh, loves, you know I'm not a wolf! I'd never lie to you!*...typical? So, Sally - if you were a wolf, would you come out and tell us and make sure you got lynched?

Ah, so the looonnng posts begin already. *le sigh*

We are already getting a lot of interesting reactions out of people, though. I agree Gwathagor and Mac have been a little...defensive? It's really okay, Mac, I was just looking for something to say.

I'm finding Nerwen, A Little Green, McCaber the hardest to read of anyone. I've never played with them before, and though I've never played with Sally, either, she's a bit more...out there. I would not have a problem with that except that her "I promise I'm not a wolf" seems so utterly ridiculous to me, and I disagree with her on Boro.

On the other hand...Boro, along with Lommy, is among those pulling the preemptive "this is how I always am, it doesn't mean I'm a wolf", or "this is how I am as a wolf, and I'm not that now, so I'm not a wolf" stuff. Not as bad as Sally's "I'd tell you if I was a wolf cause I can't lie!", but it still annoys me. I know plenty of the people in this game have complained before about the problem of playing with the same people with the same styles, so let's stop trying to use that to our advantage, eh?

Menel, Nogrod, and Gwathagor are attempting to be very pleasant it seems. It's almost boring, and bothers me a little. Menel and Gwath both seem to have felt they needed to correct their behaviour a bit, and Nogrod being overly pleasnt could be a bad sign.

But then again, those on the offensive who are already forming wonderful conspiracy theories are confusing me, too. Seriously, Rikae, five dashes? Already?

Volo and Ka seem the most innocent right now to me.

Rikae, Menel, and Sally bother me the most, all for very different reasons. If I had to pick a wolf from them, I'd probably drop off Sally cause I have absolutely no idea about her. But beyond that...eh, who knows.

Edit: Crossed with Nogrod