Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Aganzir]

"Aye, this is ridiculous. Besides, I couldn't find my water buffalo anywhere. I bet she is somewhere drinking beer again." Aganzir appeared from the corner. A faint click was heard, as if a door closing, and then the corner was as dark as it had been.

"I, for one, don't believe this Rikae person. Mainly because Farael said there is no weaver. Or... maybe it was Farael who was lying... Who knows? One can never be sure about these mods nowadays.

"But yes, I agree with you that Nogrod looks very wolfish! When I was little, my ancestors told me stories about those of Nogrod's, and his whole kin is supposed to be extremely loud and aggressive, not of the type to be snoring in the corner for the first part of the day. Oh, good morning Noggins, he-he, a beautiful morning, isn't it!

"And why that blood on your towel? (Good find, sally, by the way!" Aganzir winks at her.) "You know, I wouldn't put it past you to come with a clear evidence here, counting on that we wouldn't believe you did it.

"Good morning, Mac. If I don't have problems with hearing, you are saying it's strange that some people don't want to discuss certain futile things that have been chewed over and over. Well, I think we can discuss about something else this time. When enough people have spoken, we can talk about them instead of futile things. This seems to be 'enough', since we can soon start arguing properly.

"And do you think Nogrod suggested lynching also the overall strategy because he said 'not the overall strategy discussion'?

"I can tell even now that I'm going to lynch the most suspicious-looking, and I don't care if that person is quiet, loud, substantial, conventional or whatever. There are usually better chances that the most suspicious-looking is a wolf than that the quietest is one."

Aganzir sniggered when Shasta fell. "I confess! I did it! Not in the night, though, but in the morning when I was bored.

"But... I wonder why you are saying Nog left his towel in the bathroom as we all can see that he didn't. Maybe it was a part of your original plan and Nog, for some reason, forgot it... Maybe..."

edit: xed with two sallys

[A Little Green]

Lily the Stepmother got to her feet, gracefully hiding a yawn behind one of the famous long-fingered hands. She eyed the awoken ones suspiciously, and those still asleep even more so.

"What have you been doing behind my back, you ill-bred scums? Killing mods, eh?" Her gaze swept to Nogrod's bloody towel. "For heaven's sake, child, get that awful bloody thing out of my sight! What were you thinking, spoiling a good towel? Besides, Nogrod, yelling is certainly not proper behaviour for a boy of your age. I also demand an explanation for this statement:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

not the special roles speculation...

What do you mean by special roles speculation? Speak plainer, or I'll lock you to... to..." She shrugged, trying to remain dignified. "...somewhere."

"And you, Aganzir! Your ancestors hardly matter to us. Stop gloating about your fine grandmothers and concentrate on yourself and your own situation. Silly kid. I don't think you are dangerous, though, only another ill-bred child. On the other hand you are so wicked that I never can be too wary with you. But doing evil things to Shasta was very naughty of you in any case. Though he is as ill-bred as you are, you are to apologise to him. And see that you don't let the buffalo of yours in here. Those creatures smell awful bad."

"Rikae! What was the substance of what you said? Of course I can't expect much more from such silly children in such a silly situation, but your speech seemed nonsensical all the same. I'm watching you..."

"And Macalaure. You look merely ill-bred, not necessarily dangerous. You speak as good sense as you are ever likely to in your statement about the weird-looking people, though generalising is a naughty habit. Your fellow ill-bred kid Agan has a good point about simply lynching the most suspicious-looking of you naughty children."

"Sally... I don't like your easy joining to the suspicion of Nogrod. Also, throwing pillows is a very bad thing to do. Apologise to Nogrod! In addition to this, you are very evil to think Agan's little trick on Shasta a good joke. She did a very naughty thing, and it's nothing to laugh at. You look like an evil child to me. I'll be having a tight eye on you." With that, she gave Sally a taste of her "tight eye".

She glanced around the room with cold, measuring eyes. "Wake up, you lazy bastards. We have work to do."

[Meneltarmacil]

Quite a lot of strange joking-around here, which makes it easy for a wolf to hide behind the "I was just joking" excuse.

Frankly, I think that lynching anybody based on his or her playing style is unlikely to accomplish anything. People tend to use their own styles regardless of whather they be Wolf or Innocent, or at least I tend to. A loud person plays a loud wolf, while a quiet person plays a quiet wolf. Macalaure looks rather suspect to me due to his suggestion that we should start such a debate, but it's a shot in the dark.

Plus, I believe that lynching Nogrod is a very bad idea. True, he can make a dangerous wolf, but if he's innocent we'd be losing one of our best. And thus far, what he's said has made a lot of sense, unlike some around here.

Rikae would seem to be the one most guilty of this "nonsense posting". She makes a post full of jokes, then asks that others contribute to the discussion which she hasn't contributed much to herself.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Rikae.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Stepmummy

What do you mean by special roles speculation?

I think he's just sorry he can't speculate which weird roles there are as Farael said there are none. My great-great-grandmother has told me she has lived in villages with weird roles but you don't probably know anything about those since she died long long before you were even born. And if I want to speak about my ancestors I will! They are a much less futile thing than some quiet/loud debate.

And nay, I don't think I'm going to apologize. Shasta called it upon himself. It's his own problem if he has a habit to sleep too long.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't know about you, Agan, but from what I've seen, more often than not, the person who seems most blatently "suspicious" on day one turns out to be an ordo.

I think I should have said "the one who looks the most suspicious to me". Funny that you should advocate using gut feeling more in the next paragraph after saying that.

edit: xed with Menel & Mac

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think I should have said "the one who looks the most suspicious to me". Funny that you should advocate using gut feeling more in the next paragraph after saying that.

Not at all, there is a world of difference between gut feeling and going along with some bandwagon for somebody who simply stands out from the crowd.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Rikae would seem to be the one most guilty of this "nonsense posting". She makes a post full of jokes, then asks that others contribute to the discussion which she hasn't contributed much to herself.

Which I find quite understandable. Contributing may be a little difficult at times, one occasion being when only one people has posted before you.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I hoped to get some better responses to it, but you seem to be persistent not to discuss senseless things.

And if we had started to discuss about it, you would have put our names on your suspect list, saying "they are discussing senseless things". Tsk tsk.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Not at all, there is a world of difference between gut feeling and going along with some bandwagon for somebody who simply stands out from the crowd.

Well, it's the former that I intended and still intend to do. Sorry if I was being unclear.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And if we had started to discuss about it, you would have put our names on your suspect list, saying "they are discussing senseless things". Tsk tsk.

Nopes. Since I was the one who started it, I could hardly do it without looking seriously evil. In fact, I was looking for people who sneakily furthered the senseless discussion without giving their own opinion on it (to maintain a helpful image). But now nobody looks moderately suspicious to me, yet. Ah, well....

*makes himself a werewolf dowsing rod*

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Nopes. Since I was the one who started it, I could hardly do it without looking seriously evil.

You could always have said you were just trying us.

Anyway, Mac's response is the most innocent-looking thing I have seen about him thus far.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green around the gills

"Sally... I don't like your easy joining to the suspicion of Nogrod. Also, throwing pillows is a very bad thing to do. Apologise to Nogrod! In addition to this, you are very evil to think Agan's little trick on Shasta a good joke. She did a very naughty thing, and it's nothing to laugh at. You look like an evil child to me. I'll be having a tight eye on you." With that, she gave Sally a taste of her "tight eye".

"But dear 'stepmother,' it is Nogrod who committed the offense of waking me, and a child such as I can not be held responsible for her reflexes. Thus I refuse to apologize." Greenie started to reply, but Sally quickly raised a hand to silence her and continued. "As for your 'tight eye,' I think it loose, as you seem to have lost your ability to separate accuastion from good fun. I quite like Nogrod, and if my suspicions are correct and he IS indeed of the furry variety I shall be quite sad to see him go, but I must tease him nonetheless in case he has made such a clumsy error. And so I say to you, oh bossy one, be gone, and find yourself some nice prunes upon which to feast. Perhaps then you may be fully awake and able to join our discussion." Sally lowered her hand and waited for Greenie's response, but the stepmother simply stared at her, mouth agape, then collected herself, huffed angrily, and stormed off.

[Macalaure]

Sally -> Shasta
Shasta -> Menel
Legate -> Sally (Sally 2, Menel 1)
Aganzir -> Mac (Sally 2, Menel 1, Mac 1)
Lommy -> Mac (Sally 2, Mac 2, Menel 1)
Lily -> Gwath (Sally 2, Mac 2, Menel 1, Gwath 1)

left to vote: me, Nogrod, McCaber, Gwathagor, Menel, Rikae

Half of us still need to vote and only 15 minutes left!

[Macalaure]

Voting a newbie with that little suspicion?

*writes "has some explaining to do tomorrow" next to Lily's name*

[Macalaure]

Gwathagor, Menel, and McCaber haven't showed up yet, so unless they plan to give a last-minute rogue vote, they're going to miss it.

Nogrod, Rikae? What are your preferences?

[Gwathagor]

I'm here, I'm here.

[Rikae]

I would really rather vote for Nerwen, but not if it means Mac gets lynched, as I would rather save him than Sally.
I don't see how Sally's so suspicious, though, either - random votes are unfortunate and useless, but sometimes can't be helped.

[A Little Green]

A very quick response to Mac: I vote people based on their suspiciousness, not the length of their werewolf career. He is wolvish-looking for other reasons than being a newbie.
I know he is a newbie but he is the most wolvish-looking so I voted for him. Clear?

[McCaber]

Richard the Unobscure strode in from the southern fields, imposing in his priestly robes and massive warhammer.

"Asleep for this whole time? Not I. While you were here jawing, I was out hunting ... wolf."

He threw down a large sack and five wolf heads spilled out onto the ground.

"Now, to business. Though the Day is not yet half gone, some have stood out as suspicious to me so far. I am not in favor of Menel simply agreeing with an earlier post and not bringing anything new to the table. I also did not like the sound of Macalaure's speech, up until this last post, which might do much towards changing my mind.

EDIT: crossed with Aganzir

[Meneltarmacil]

I wasn't just repeating others' arguments there, at least I don't think so. True, I agreed with Nogrod that Rikae was talking nonsense, but the part about people using their own playing styles regardless of their role hadn't been brought up here. I argued against Nogrod's lynching using my own arguments.

Now, I'm not sure what to make of Mac's declaration that he was only trying to get a wolf to slip up. It's most likely genuine, but it could be a trick by a wolf to avoid being caught. Rikae continues to worry me, though. She apparently thinks a "conventional vs. weird" debate has merit, and also advocates using gut feelings. Not that there's anything wrong with using instinct, but "I have a gut feeling about him" would be a good way for a wolf to sway the voting without having to make up a reason.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Now, one thing I would like to ask about - Greenie, do you actually see Sally's "suspicion" of Nogrod as serious? I'm quite sure it isn't, and the fact that you use it as a basis to suspect Sally doesn't look good.

Well, this could be answered with another question: are any suspicions here (including mine, mind you) actually serious, or rather, well-based or truly substantial? I should guess they aren't, which of course makes suspecting people at this phase no less important. My point is: though our suspicions at this point (generally) cannot have a good basis, it doesn't mean that we shouldn't suspect people at all. On the contrary, we should suspect as much as we can, to gather some substance to plant better suspicions on.

I didn't answer Rikae's question straightly, though... Was that answer enough, or do you want me to explain some more?

Now, then, about the whole "let's lynch the one who looks most suspicious" -theory-thingy. While I understand the point that the one who is considered suspicious-looking is often an ordo, I could respond by asking what do people mean by the term suspicious-looking. I understand it simply as who do I suspect to be a wolf, and logically I vote for one I suspect. What is the other option? Vote for the one I find least suspicious? Or rather, choose randomly?

[Gwathagor]

I'm sorry I haven't been involved in the discussion yet; I'm still getting a feel for the game at this point. However, I have been reading through the thread and taking notes, and I'll try to make some educated suggestions after dinner. I'm bringing my Colt Python .357 magnum...loaded with silver bullets. Let's kill us a werewolf!

[Macalaure]

And there's was me, thinking that my discussion hook went unnoticed.


Aganzir's backing off from me just after I backed off from her was unexpected. I'll have to make up my mind about her thoroughly tomorrow.

Menel is innocent.

A Little Green is extremely confusing in her response to Rikae. Surely you know there's a difference between a suspicion based on very little and a suspicion based on nothing - and Sally's joke was nothing. I first thought your suspicion was in fun as well, but now I'm wondering about you.
(I wrote this before I read Lily's last post. I'm not sure what to think of this now)

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, what do you mean by:
"In fact, I was looking for people who sneakily furthered the senseless discussion without giving their own opinion on it (to maintain a helpful image)."? It sounds like you're trying to back out of something, actually -you're going to have to clarify this.

My lorebooks tell me that early-Day-One-senseless-discussion is usually a good start of a game and the way people argue is often a good indicator of guilt. In this village there was nothing of the kind, so I felt like initiating it. Wolves obviously like senseless discussion, so they like to encourage it. On the other hand, they dislike being caught in it themselves - it makes them look unhelpful. That was the stereotype I was looking for.

Originally Posted by Rikae

he seems to be determined to be one of those "weird" players he advocated not lynching.

That, too.

I'm tending towards innocence with Rikae.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

She apparently thinks a "conventional vs. weird" debate has merit, and also advocates using gut feelings. Not that there's anything wrong with using instinct, but "I have a gut feeling about him" would be a good way for a wolf to sway the voting without having to make up a reason.

I'm surprised you, of all people, should think that a theory arguing against lynching the odd and conspicuous doesn't have merit, Menel! You are exactly the sort of player I was thinking of as being frequently, and wrongly, lynched on day one.

As for gut feelings, if you'll reread my post you'll see that I actually said I don't want people voting or suspecting without giving reasons. Still, gut feelings can help us decide whose posts to examine more closely, and exploring why the person in question "feels furry" can be useful. Are they cautious? Overly friendly? Forced?

Well, you can take or leave my advice as you will; this is what has worked best for my ancestors.

A few preliminary thoughts:

Aganzir - I'm a bit uneasy about her. She seemed to go from being eager to start arguments, to being eager to smooth them over. Then again, I don't want to be hasty - I've suspected her in every game we've played together, I think, so it may be that her style bothers me.
Legate - Is absent.
Nogrod - Shockingly quiet. I find nothing to suspect in his post, but he is, of course, a wolf.
Lommy - Where oh where is dear little Lommy? Way down yonder in the pawpaw patch... (note: this is just a song, so Nogrod need not get himself lynched over it.)
McCaber - Five wolves, eh? I guess we're all set, then, and then some... hmm. I'm not sure going after Menel right now is really justified - these accusations seem almost deliberately weak.
Sally - Sally is being silly - nothing wrong with that - but if she doesn't get down to the serious business at hand soon, I shall become concerned about her.
Gwathagor - Apparently lost in the mist.
A Little Green - As I said before, her failure (deliberate?) to see that Sally was joking is worrisome.
Macalaure - His talk about "senseless things" is odd. I don't know what he's trying to say, honestly... he seems to be determined to be one of those "weird" players he advocated not lynching. Mac, what do you mean by:
"In fact, I was looking for people who sneakily furthered the senseless discussion without giving their own opinion on it (to maintain a helpful image)."? It sounds like you're trying to back out of something, actually -you're going to have to clarify this.
Nerwen - Where oh where can she be?
Meneltarmacil - I don't find him suspicious... I find him confused (it wasn't Nogrod he was agreeing with, but Greenie, I think) - he seems uncautious and innocentish.
Shasta - Somewhere out there, beneath the pale moonlight... (sunlight?)

Well, conclusions: I'm uneasy about Agan, Greenie, and McCaber at the moment and would like some clarification from Macalaure, while Menel and Nogrod look relatively innocentish.

EDIT: X'd with Greenie's ... um... well. As far as I know, only wolves are interested in promoting baseless suspicions - if you didn't want to direct suspicion toward Sally, you certainly didn't indicate this. I suppose you can say it was an attempt at getting a wolf to follow, but then again, that's easy to say.
As for most suspicious - I think people have already discussed their definitions of that at enough length and there's no further point in it unless it is connected to someone's actual suspicions.

[A Little Green]

Just briefly:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Where oh where is dear little Lommy?

Lommy is having a party-party time..

Originally Posted by Rikae

A Little Green - As I said before, her failure (deliberate?) to see that Sally was joking is worrisome.

Of course she was joking. But there can be evil intentions behind a joke... Okay, let's be frank: I didn't read it as carefully as I could have. The first (but not last, mind you) impression I got from the post was that she was airing a slight, half(or should we say quarter)-serious suspicion in-character. Now that I read it again, I see it as a joke.

Bah. I'd better get some sleep, I fear I'm being both confused and confusing.

x-ed with Gwath(y)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

"I can tell even now that I'm going to lynch the most suspicious-looking, and I don't care if that person is quiet, loud, substantial, conventional or whatever. There are usually better chances that the most suspicious-looking is a wolf than that the quietest is one."

I don't like this at all. I don't know about you, Agan, but from what I've seen, more often than not, the person who seems most blatently "suspicious" on day one turns out to be an ordo. That is, the person who attracts the most unanimous suspicion usually does so for acting oddly and being difficult to grasp (I don't see one of those here yet, but there are usually one or two in a village), and that is not behavior that a wolf would generally engage in. Remember, ordos have less to lose, and therefore tend to post more freely.

I find Macalaure's words about "conventional" versus "weird" to be the sort of solid good sense I expect from him - although, of course, being too dogmatic about this or any other theory tends to backfire. I'd actually like to advocate using our gut feelings more, as any theory is easily turned by the wolves to their own advantage, but there is a certain evil "feel" one can detect on a wolf's posts, and I have found that to often be a reliable guide. (Case in point, Greenie in the trials in Volo's game...)

I'm not saying we should refrain from giving reasons for our suspicions, only that we might benefit from allowing our intuition to start the process, and then looking at the evidence to see if it backs up the hunch. I say this because if we simply look for conventional wolves now, everyone (wolf or no) will make themselves more unconventional - but if we're clever, we may catch the wolves doing so more self-consciously than the others (for example).

Now, one thing I would like to ask about - Greenie, do you actually see Sally's "suspicion" of Nogrod as serious? I'm quite sure it isn't, and the fact that you use it as a basis to suspect Sally doesn't look good.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

"I can tell even now that I'm going to lynch the most suspicious-looking, and I don't care if that person is quiet, loud, substantial, conventional or whatever. There are usually better chances that the most suspicious-looking is a wolf than that the quietest is one."

Originally Posted by Lily

Your fellow ill-bred kid Agan has a good point about simply lynching the most suspicious-looking of you naughty children.

And the shared First Prize for the most uncontroversial argument to my statement goes to Aganzir and Lily! I hoped to get some better responses to it, but you seem to be persistent not to discuss senseless things. At least now I can put your names on the top of my very premature list of suspects.

Don't get me wrong: Your points are undeniably true, of course. However, as Rikae already said, "S/he simply looked most suspicious to me" is the most common (to both, innocent and wolf!) Day Two response to the lynching of yet another misguided innocent.