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Old 01-22-2008, 12:29 PM   #1
A Little Green
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I'm here. *phew* Sorry for the delay, it was really unexpected. Now as the deadline is drawing near, I suppose I should make a little (green) analysis. I'll be back with it as soon as I can.
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Old 01-22-2008, 01:33 PM   #2
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The promised analysis, or rather a commentary.

1.Rikae on the first Day.
1.1. post #62 - Her pointing out that two thirds of the players have something to hide made me thoughtful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
An unusual aspect of this game that no one has yet mentioned is the fact that most of this group has something to hide. Usual methods wolf-spotting like searching for nervous defensiveness & extreme efforts for one's own survival could spell disaster in the event that they are adopted by the ordos on the trial days, required as they are to choose between a gifted and a wolf.
Is it a wolf trying to say that not all nervous people are wolves (an attempt to protect unknown but maybe unexperienced fellows by suggesting that they are gifteds, perhaps)? Or a gifted or an ordo who wants to reduce the number of gifted-lynchings? I can't tell. Her suspicion of Azaelia seems genuine to me, and her overall manner is quite relaxed.
1.2. post #63 - nothing of significance, just casual (and off-topic) chatter.
1.3. post #73 - a simple (and genuine-looking) point, nothing notable there.
1.4. post # 84 - sensible, cool, reasoned points. Nothing new or astounding. A vote for Azaelia. Easy, sensible, and reasoned. Too easy?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
I also reserve the right to change my mind whenever I see fit.
After her semi-lecture about how it is only natural that the suspicions change, this strikes me as odd. Why repeat it?

2. Izzy on the first Day.
2.1. post #69 - nothing of significance. Just a "hiiii, I'm here". Something there bothers me, though.
2.2. post #87 - general matters, still no suspicions. She is, at least this far, much too neutral. I'll read on.
2.3. HEY, WHAT'S THIS? I hope, Izzy, that you'll explain why you didn't turn up and vote after all. You didn't say anything at all about other players, except for a small remark to Nogrod, during the Day.

3. Rikae toDay.
3.1. post #268 - nothing weird in here.
3.2. post #269 - well, at least there is substance. Her novel looks quite genuine. Of course an experienced wolf could manage such, I suppose, but her manner is maybe too relaxed for a wolf.
3.3. post #271 - nothing remarkable.
3.4. post #274 - Rikae bothers me. She is either an innocent or a very very cunning wolf. I can't grasp anything from her posts. No slips, no odd phrasing, nothing at all.
3.5. post #277 - nothing to say.

4. Izzy toDay.
4.1. post #270 - still (!!) nothing about people. General (and quite sensible) points, but I must say I'm getting a little uneasy about this neutrality.
4.2. post #273 - suspicions at last, though I did notice a certain wariness in the way she phrased them. It might be only natural of course, resulting of not being sure about the suspicion which is, at this point, almost inevitable. Still, there is something I don't like in her carefulness.
4.3. post #276 - still quite general. Has a good point about Nog. I don't know if it's been stated before as I still haven't found the time to read all of the previous Days but still, a valid point.

5. In general, then. Rikae looks innocentish, though alarmingly traceless. I don't know how to phrase it, really. I don't like Izzy being so careful and neutral. All in all, I find Izzy more suspicious than Rikae.

EDIT: x-ed with everything since Rikae's post #277
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Old 01-22-2008, 01:38 PM   #3
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Izzy, in case you're here I would love to hear your thoughts about me and Rikae.
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Old 01-22-2008, 01:44 PM   #4
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Well, Izzy, it's up to you. Though you may be more suspicious in the classic sense, after all I find Rikae's easy tracelessness even more unnerving than that. Therefore,

++ Rikae

So, I'll say it once again: it's all up to you.
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Old 01-22-2008, 01:57 PM   #5
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Greenie, your analysis really only confirms my suspicions - although it's a shame, as you seem like a fun person to play WW with.

But really, talk about neutrality! There is a textbook example of fabricated suspicions and wolfish caution, if I ever saw it - especially since she switches her main suspect in the next post without mentioning that I voted for her.
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Old 01-22-2008, 01:52 PM   #6
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I think I mentioned in my second trial post about voting on the trial day; and how kind of silly it is. Yes having it where the wolves don't know who each other are yet, makes it a bit more honest I would think. People could actually voice their suspicions based off of that - suspicions; rather than trying to make a case for someone purely because they are not a wolf.. and there fore must be lynched. With that, it kind of makes it hard to track how people thought of each other. With everyone knowing that the wolves know each other, behavior patterns can change. Naturally you don't want to lynch a fellow wolf, so you adjust accordingly. It sounds like I just talked in a circle.

- Just looked back while I typed this, and I must've said the post in my head and not actually posted about voting.

So I'm thinking of who is more suspicious; Rikae or Green and this thought occured to me. I think it has been sitting in my subconscious and just now found a way to come out. With now knowing who fellow wolves are, it seems it would be easier for the wolf to hide. There are three of us here, and to escape a lynch for a couple of the proceeding days, all you had to do was be vocal and show up.

For both of you I find points and arguments sensible and logical.. merely that I find a perfect hiding ground for a wolf. I'll explain; many a time I've come across the wily wolf. One whom is very logical and actually helps the ordo's; a somewhat risky yet very sneaky place to hide.
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Old 01-22-2008, 02:00 PM   #7
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Ack. I don't like being in this position.

I am inclined to vote for Rikae; because she is a very dangerous person to have as a wolf, yet is very logical and sensible.. and I'm finding it hard to find something which points to her being suspicious in this game.

Green, I just have no read on..and am inclined to vote for her because a no-read wolf can be dangerous.

++Greenie

Mainly for her talking about lynching and suspicion being heavier on those from the trial day. accck
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Old 01-22-2008, 02:02 PM   #8
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The last day of the first stage began. The weather was calm, sunny and only small threads of clouds swam far away in the sky. As nice as it was in a politically correct manner, some of the audience couldn’t bear the heat and cursed the day. Those who did so, were quickly removed from the living world by a travelling company of Worshipers of Universal Solar Deities that just happened to be goofing around. And they sure were lucky to be around, because unknowingly they would encounter Izz E. Yumme, the QuiteQuietestQuiter, who was once a worshiper of the solar deity Shakuru, and a member of the organization.

While her friends were ridding the world of heretics, Izz E. Yumme was enjoying a drink of Jägermeister with Rikae of Europe. ”What is this mythical land of Europe?” asked Izz with genuine interest.

”It is a secret, but I feel that I can trust you not tell it to anybody”, answered Rikae and continued with a whisper into Izz’s ear, ”Europe is a hidden land of much wealth. It lies where Gondolin once lay”.

”Oooh…” gasped Izz in awe, as she was quite interested in history and geography herself. She moved to ask Rikae about their national drink, but was interrupted by A Little Green Man who had sneaked right up to the two.

”Hullo then, Rikae and Izz!” he rasped because he had forgot to clear his throat first. He cleared it now, took off his little green hat and stood on it. ”Nothing to say really, except that I’m a very busy little green man and will be working off with a little green film. The Little Green Man stepped off his little green and put it on his head. With a bow, he rushed away.

”Ok, no problem- Rikae, as I was about to say, what is the national drink of Europe?”

Rikae took a sip of Jägermeister, ”Strangely it isn’t this medicine stuff but basic beer. Not that European beer is bad – it’s nearly as good as Mineralwasser, which is a drink that isn’t even exported out of Europe…”

”A pity… Hey, I know. Let’s rate tha performances of previous battles! I liked Menel best from the first battle!” Izz suggested.

Rikae thought for a while and agreed, ”Sure, why not. You know I actually also liked Menel most. He’s quite bold!” She took a sip and changed her position. ”It’s a pity Roa fell to her death in the second battle, she was one of the most talented fighters I’ve ever seen.”

”Weird, I personally thought that the second battle was more of joke than anything, and since you mentioned Roa, I think she was quite jumpy and hasty… Equally sad that Shasta and Mighty Rog didn’t manage to survive”. Izz sighed and poured herself more Jägermeister.

”I don’t really know what to say about the third battle, it looked lazy. Might be because of the bad weather, of course. Erm… The fourth battle was no better, none of the warriors managed to convince me”. Rikae wanted to add that the fifth battle was more like a tea party than a battle, but luckily noticed that neither she nor Izz was holding a sword, but a little glass. She took another sip and poured some more.

”Umm, yeah… I think I’ve had enough”, Izz said, but Rikae poured her some more.

”Drink up, it’s better than medicine to your health. Cheers! To our health, hehe!”

-----------~~

By the time A Little Green Man returned, the Jäger and the woman from Europe were sleeping back to back. He took off his little green hat, took his little green grapes from his little green hat and sat on it. While having his little green lunch, he pondered about the two in the end deciding that Izz is more suspicious than Rikae. He walked up to Rikae and shook her shoulder.

Rikae turned to her side with a loud snore and mumbled something like, ”*unclear* Izz *unclear* best friend *snore* Green Man kill…”

A Little Green Man jumped back with his little green heart beating a little too fast. He moved to wake up Izz. ”Honorable Izz E. Yumme, it makes me cry little green tears to say this to you, but Rikae, whom you regarded as a friend, betrayed you. While you were sleeping, she tried to steal your Pint of Jäger”.

Izz woke up with a start. ”What? Where? Who? Jäger? –meister?” She tried to fix her gaze on the little green man, but couldn’t decide which one of the many little green men was A Little Green Man and not just any little green man. She turned her eyes away and took a few deep breaths. Her head cleared just enough to see that something was going on. ”Wait a sec! You say that Rikae tried to steal my Pint of Jäger? But she’s sleeping there just as I left her…” …after stealing her dreaded ”ch” just in case. ”You’re trying to confuse me, green man!”

”It’s a little green m-”

”I don’t care! Leave me alone, I’m tired!” Izz tried to whipe away the unnecessary many little green men from her view, but by accident hit the one and only real A Little Green Man.

A Little Green Man struggled to regain his balance and retreated a few steps backwards. He felt a little green pain in his nose. As if a little green fluid was trickling down his little green left nostril. He raised his little green hand to whipe away the little green fluid…

When he looked at his little green hand he saw a little red stripe on it. His little green eyes grew large as he screamed. He raised his little nearly-green hand to his nose again and put a little green finger just below his little green left nostril. When he opened his little green eyes to look at his little green finger, he sa w that it wasn’t green at all, little – yes. It was red! Red! He screamed again and woke up the two from their sleep. ”It cannot be! It just can’t be true! A little green me can’t be red inside! It is impossible! It is-!” His voice turned into a rasp and he had a fit of hysterical coughing,

A Little Green Man crying loudly. Neither of the two others dared to say anything. After an unnaturally loud scream, Rikae reached for her Jägermeister bottle with her shaking hand and poured some medicine straight into her mouth.

A Little Green Man can’t be red inside! No, no, no, nononononoooo! *sob* I am not worth living! I have to kill myself to save the world from suffering! *sob*” The little green/red man ran to his to little green tent where he kept all his belongings and pulled his just-little-enough-to-be-called-little green cannon out of it. He rushed to get little green gunpowder and pushed a little green sack of it into the cannon. He took a little green match out of his pocket and lit the fuse. The last thing he ever did was to get his little green/red body into the just-little-enough-to-be-called-little green cannon.

KABUUM!

The Lentokonesuihkuturbiinimoottoriapumekaanikkoaliups eerioppilas flew straight at the moon. He tried to stay calm and put on his little green goggles on before getting his little green turbine out of his little green pocket. He turned on the turbine and turned his flight course by a few inches. He wouldn’t hit the moon after all.

When he finally passed the moon, its gravitation took hold of him. With the help of his little green turbine he slowly descended on to the dark side of the moon.

-----------~~

During the night between the first and the second part of the competition Sauron entered the arena himself and called for his minions. They came and their talk was full of joy to greet their master and the full moon.

”Why can’t we just go and kill all of them right now? They’re all sleeping deep! We would dig out their hearts and ate them before they noticed anything happening!” a brave Wolf shouted.

”You’re a fool to say that! There are too many of them even for us, are there not, Lord Sauron?” snapped another.

Sauron grimaced and answered through his teeth. ”You are correct! There are only five of you, whereas there are still six who would die for the Valar. Curse that Queen! She still serves Eru and yet she is too important to be removed. And even if we did get rid of her, it would be too late”.

”Master! We shall go and kill her right now, even if that won’t help, she still deserves it!”

”No! There is one person who is even a bigger threat to you at the moment. It thinks that it is safe from us, but there has been a change in my plans! Your target is…”

-----------~~

Around:
Brinniel
THE Ka
satansaloser2005
Aganzir
McCaber
Nogrod
Thinlómien
Valier
Meneltarmacil
Kath
Naria
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Isabellkya
Rikae
Ugh-Friedrich (host)

Gone:
Legate of Amon Lanc - lynched on Day0.1 - teleported away
Roa_Aoife - lynched on Day0.2 - joined the dance
Shastanis Althereduin - lynched on Day0.3 - reincarnated as the first Man
The Might - lynched on Day0.4 - escorted away and sailed away
Gil-Galad - lynched on Day0.5 - disappeared in a gate to a different world
Groin Redbeard - lynched on Day0.6 - returned to where he came from
A Little Green - lynched on Day0.7 - ended up on the moon

---------~~

Stage1 is over! Congratulations to the survivors and thanks to everybody who participated in experimenting this format!

Night1 began!

The Wolves will be revealed their fellows and may PM one another.

Specials do whatever you do.

Don't post in the thread.
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Old 01-23-2008, 02:00 PM   #9
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Two men were talking in the end of a narrow dark alley. Both were dressed in a dark blue suit. It was a coincidence, or rather it was caused by the current trend. However the larger man had his jacket opened and a beard while the other had a striped tie and a hat. Both had glasses. This, again, was a coincidence, although one of the men had brilliant sight.

Four Werewolves hid at the other end of the alley behind an overturned rubbish container. They were waiting impatiently for the fifth Werewolf who had promised to meet the others here. While three Wolves were nibbling at the remains of their lousy dinner, a rat, one spied on what the two men were doing. The men weren’t actually doing anything, they just stood there. Once in a while the bearded man looked at his watch.

”I really hope they’re not waiting for another one. We got specific orders not to harm anyone else”, hissed one of the Wolves.

”Yes, yes. Though we do have time, I doubt they will walk out of here together”, another answered.

”You are right… But still, we were told that the other one is dangerous”, the third said.

”Silence! Now, look, something’s happening”, the Wolf on the lookout whispered. The three others quickly gathered around it.

The man in the tie looked at his watch and nodded. He lifted a briefcase from the ground and handed it to the stout man. The stout man took it quickly with two hands that were shivering with greed. He thanked the other man by dropping to his knees and was about to kiss his hand, when the other turned away and left. He was walking at the Wolves.

The leader of the pack hissed, ”Don’t let him notice us. Hide”.

The man passed the tense Wolves without looking to his sides. He walked to the end of the alley where it met another alley, turned right and disappeared behind the corner.

The Wolves counted to ten and then sighed deep. They looked at the man who had the briefcase. He seemed to be in a hurry but uncertain of the way he should go. Whatever he was doing, he was about to leave.

”Drat, how late can one be… Ok! I think it’s time to go!”

The four Wolves jumped from behind the rubbish container and rushed at the man. He nearly dropped his briefcase in fright. He ran to the building on the left side of the alley and opened the unlocked door. The Wolves didn’t see what happened there but for some reason the man turned back and ran to the middle of the alley again. He gathered courage and shouted to Wolves, ”I’ll never tell you the password, it’s useless!”

The Wolves closed in around him as he tightened his embrace on the briefcase. The fifth Wolf walked out from the opened door and entered the circle. ”Sorry for that, I got lost on the way and thought to rather be somewhere here on time than late”.

The leader nodded and moved to the horrified man. ”What’s your name?”

”P-p-peter”.

”Hmm…” The Wolf lifted a small piece of cloth to its nose and sniffed at it. It then compared the smell with the man.

”It’s him!” cried the Wolf triumphantly and slit open his throat.

-----------~~

In a week, all newspapers wrote about the disappearance of an important cultural figure.

In a month, the police found a tightly sealed briefcase in the middle of a dark narrow alley.

-----------~~

The second stage of the battles would have started today, but when the 14 warriors entered the arena, there was no sigh of audience. This couldn’t have been anything but a cruel joke.

-----------~~

Around:
Brinniel
THE Ka
satansaloser2005
Aganzir
McCaber
Nogrod
Thinlómien
Valier
Meneltarmacil
Kath
Naria
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Isabellkya
Rikae

Gone:
Legate of Amon Lanc - lynched on Day0.1 - teleported away
Roa_Aoife - lynched on Day0.2 - joined the dance
Shastanis Althereduin - lynched on Day0.3 - reincarnated as the first Man
The Might - lynched on Day0.4 - escorted away and sailed away
Gil-Galad - lynched on Day0.5 - disappeared in a gate to a different world
Groin Redbeard - lynched on Day0.6 - returned to where he came from
A Little Green - lynched on Day0.7 - ended up on the moon
Ugh-Friedrich - wasn't allowed to enter the temple after stage1

---------~~

Night1 ended, Day1 began.

Wolves, stop PM'ing.

You may now discuss!
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Old 01-23-2008, 02:21 PM   #10
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Always look at the bright side of life they say...

*tries*

Well, no kill then... so we're not worse off than we were before the Night...

*tries even harder*

We have better chances to hit a wolf when they form more than 1/3 of our numbers...

*fails*


Uh-oh.

I've been in tight situations with werewolves but this looks pretty nasty indeed. With five votes they can do basically anything they wish as they have the knowledge.

We should stay in one line and not waver to lynch one of them - as they can in practise counter-vote us if they wish - but then again if they get us to go band-waggoning a wrong person they can hide in as well.

And we can't afford too many wrong decisions. In the worst case two mislynches will be the end of this.

The specials should consider their way of playing accordingly as this is no normal Day1 but merely the possible second last Day.

Okay. I try to be more cheerful soon as I get down to looking at people and what happened in the trials.
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Old 01-23-2008, 02:50 PM   #11
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I have a pretty strong opinion on three groups from the trials.

Valier
Meneltarmacil
Legate of Amon Lanc
- lynched on Day0.1

Even if I didn't find Menel or Valier exactly innocentish I have reasons to believe that Legate was the wolf there which would then set Menel and Valier as innocents. I've argued this already on Day0.0 and during my trial so I'm not repeating it here at least for the time being.

Someone asked why Legate made all those postings about his innocense after he knew he was going to die, what was there to gain for him if he were a wolf? A lot indeed. If we had a strong opinion of his innocense we would be heavily on Menel and Valier toDay while indeed I think we should not as they are more probably innocents.

McCaber
Naria
Roa_Aoife
- lynched on Day0.2

I'm still of the opinion that Roa was a gifted - and am afraid she was a seer (one of them?) as that might just be the only role important enough to make Roa try to play it more safely.

That would mean that either McCaber or Naria is a wolf. I guess one might find reasons to suspect either of them. I need to look that Day more closely later.

Nogrod
Thinlómien
The Might
- lynched on Day0.4

I find it hard to believe that The Might would have committed a suicide if he were a wolf. Sure everything's possible but if (and when) I have to bet on it I'd say that he was no wolf. And as I know I'm no wolf either the equation becomes pretty simple: Lommy is a wolf.

Also Lommy's way of playing in the trial and the way she reacted to the Might's self-vote just look as wolfy as one can look.


So this leaves me with a preliminary stance that looks like follows:

innocents:
Menel
Valier


50-50 wolf:
McCaber
Naria


wolf:
Lommy

If you think there are problems with my points please come forwards. I'm just happy to change my suspicions if you show them to be incorrect or unfounded.

I'll be back after I do some rereading...

EDIT: X'd with Lommywolf
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Old 01-23-2008, 02:37 PM   #12
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"Good morning, fellow glad-iators", Thinlómien grinned. Then her grin faded. "Five wolves? That's a bit too much, much more than I expected to see here, not to mention my personal preferences of how much of them should be alive at this stage of the game. Maybe the lynch-the-quiet doesn't always work. Anyway, I'm afraid we're in serious trouble. They're going to outnumber us quite soon." She frowned.

"Anyway, I've been a-footbaging and watching the stars a little and I've started wondering who might be evil in our gang. Here's what I've been thinking and something to chew for you:

Legate, Menel and Valier
Well. They all seem quite wolvish, for different reasons. And they all actually acted how they normally do. However, I always suspect Menel's normal style and he usually turns up innocent, so I'd be hesitant to make conclusions about him too quickly this time. Legate or Valier then? Difficult question, but if I had to guess, I'd say Valier, she feels eeriely furry to me while my suspicion of Legate is more reason-based. (Lol, almost wrote "she makes me feel eeriely furry" .)

McCaber, Naria and Roa
A tough one. I've reread her posts and I think Roa sounded quite innocent after all, so my suspicions lay with McCaber and Naria, especially the one mentioned first, as Naria, even though looked bad, felt innocentish.

Agan, Ka and Shasta
This is more than a bit tough. Nothing can be really said about Shasta, but he mostly strikes me as ordoish. So Agan or Ka? Honestly, I have no clue. They both seem quite innocent to me. I have absolutely no reasons to suspect Agan, except maybe her feeble case against me and well, from previous experiences I should know never to trust her... But Ka seems just as innocent. Or, rather, Agan seems both less and more innocent than THE Ka, if you know what I mean.

Lommy, Might and Noggie
Quote:
Originally Posted by TM, 5 minutes after the deadline
Well, I am (was) an innocent and I am saying this right now simply because that might help the good side win in the end. So good luck!
This convinced me of his innocence. So thereby Nogrod must be a wolf. Nice pretense of innocence, too bad you got caught.

sally, Kath and Gil-Galad

This Day was just agreeing and nice chit-chattering and it left me absolutely clueless of the wolf's identity. I have no idea which of these three is a wolf, I'd need a few more rereads to form an opinion. Let's hope I'll have time to do that.

Azaelia, Brinniel and Groin
I'm quite sure Groin was innocent and it was no good he was lynched. Let's just hope he wasn't a gifted. Zali still strikes me as very fishy and her somewhat nonsense-seeming analyses didn't help at all. Brinn improved her reasonableness from Day0, but I'm still quite undecided on which of them is the wolf.

A Little Green, Isabellkya and Rikae

I think the wolf in the lot is Izzie - not because she's suspicious, but because both Rikae and Greenie seemed genuinely innocent to me both on Day0 and on their trial Day. Rikae makes points a wolf would probably not make and Greenie seemed totally different from her last game where she was a wolf, not nervous or willing to please or nonsensical at all.

So, in conclusion, I'm fairly sure Nogrod is a wolf. Others who are at the top of my possibly-should-be-lynched list are Valier, Zali and Izzie. But I'm sure toDay will shed some more light on how the things stand atm and who is who.

Now, what do you others think? Come out with your thoughts, little birdsies and squirrels and wolvsies and give us something to analyse."

edit: xed with Nogrod
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Blood is running deep, some things never sleep
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