Werewolf XLII: The meaning of life forever

[Brinniel]

Hello, I'm here.

First off, I just want to take a quick look at these previous Days. A lot has happened, and I think it's important to examine them and put out some thoughts here and now.

Day 0.1

This was certainly an interesting Day to watch, though quite honestly I cannot get any clear suspicions from that Day simply because all three seem rather suspicious. The case against Legate seems to be based off mainly Day 0, which I've already stated I think isn't a particularly helpful Day since odd behaviour isn't necessarily wolfish behaviour, if you get my meaning. Of course since they were the first three, they didn't really have a choice but to use Day 0 for discussion, which is unfortunate.

Menel made the daring move of voting first. His suspicions against Legate came pretty early and he seemed fairly confident of his guilt considering there wasn't a whole lot to go on. Could be a Menel Wolf who decided early on that Legate was a bigger threat than Valier and it'd be safer to eliminate him.

Valier was much more undecided and unsure when she made her vote. Of course since it was the deciding vote, it'd only be smart as a wolf to act unsure of who to vote for. Because casting the deciding vote too hastily would look wolfish.

I think it's more likely that one of the former two is a wolf. Because on the very first lynch Day especially, it is really easy for a wolf to manipulate the voting. Anyways, Legate didn't seem very wolfish at all throughout the Day. The only thing that makes me question him is his statement about what his role may be or is not after he knew he was dead. It does give off the appearance of being helpful, but I could also see a Legate Wolf making one last desperate attempt to throw us off for the next several Days before his role is known.

Like I said, all three seem fairly suspicious, but if I had to pick the most suspicious, it'd be Menel. Because for a Menel Wolf, Legate probably would be a greater threat, plus Legate had posted more frequently on Day 0, making it easier to create a case against him.

Day 0.2

I think it's unfortunate Roa had to die merely from bad luck. Random lynches certainly are no fun. But I don't think McCaber's no vote necessarily makes him wolfish. It's more likely he didn't vote due to a RL error. After all, if he were a wolf, it'd simply be smarter for him to vote. At that point, he was completely safe from lynching and I think voting would be the less suspicious move than simply leaving it to the randomizer. But I would really like to hear an explanation come from McCaber himself come Day 1.

Roa certainly was acting very careful. But someone later on (I can't remember who) mentioned her behaviour could've been due to giftedness and I would agree. Roa can be a very dangerous player, but right now I'm getting more innocentish vibes from her than anything.

Out of the three, I think Naria is most likely the wolf. She is defensive, which in one way is understandable since she had already received a vote. But that vote came because Naria had been MIA up to that point, and since Roa thought McCaber more likely innocent, what was she supposed to do? She wasn't sure Naria would show up at all; if she had voted McCaber, he would probably vote her and if Naria didn't show, the lynch would be randomized. So, Roa's vote made perfect sense to me. Naria's response is simply overly aggressive and sarcastic. She's desparate, and with one vote already I can understand- but she just seems to be trying too hard.

Day 0.3

Well, very little was said this Day. Shasta was a very easy lynch, with the said excuse that "he contributes less." But I think a Shasta that contributes less is most likely an innocent Shasta, since I've noticed he contributes more when he has a role other than an ordinary innocent.

From previous games, I already know Aganzir can be a dangerous wolf, but I've never played with Ka, so I know nothing about her. However, I feel almost postive that the wolf is among these two and not Shasta. Aganzir stands out a little more in my mind because she was the first to state she'd rather vote Shasta because Ka contributes, and that reasoning just doesn't seem very good to me.

Day 0.4

Another interesting Day. It was certainly entertaining to watch Nogrod and Lommy bump heads with each other.

I must say, I certainly was very sad to see Might's self-vote. But I think everything he said was sincere and if he were actually a wolf, I don't think he would've let his fellow mates down and simply quit like that. Which leaves Nogrod and Lommy...

Nogrod was a bit too aggressive for my liking...but I'm not sure if that aggressiveness is actually wolfish behaviour. I'm a bit more worried about Lommy and her reaction to Might's self-vote. I quite honestly cannot see how she would still seriously consider the possibility of him being a wolf after his self-vote (like I said, I don't think a wolf give up so easily because it would only be hurting his teammates). But what I even like less, is how she accuses Nogrod of wolfishness because he thinks Might is innocent. And of course Nogrod's going to think Lommy's guilty if he thinks Might is innocent because surely he wouldn't accuse himself. I actually felt okay about Lommy throughout most of the Day, but her last couple posts (particularly the last one) make me uneasy about her. I almost get the feeling that she's nervous about something...maybe because Nogrod has her pegged...

Day 0.5

It's a shame Gil didn't show up at all. Sally and Kath's vote for him makes sense. He was a no-show and it'd be silly to vote for each other and risk a randomized lynch (even if one had voted Gil and the other for someone else, it'd look way too suspicious).

Not much was said, and there was a bit a banter. Sally was a little odd (not in a wolfish way, but in general) and I don't really have anything to say about Kath. I think if Gil were a wolf, he would've gone to greater efforts to read the guidlines and return on his designated Day. So I do think either Kath or Sally is our wolf; I just have no idea which one it is.

---------------

Okay, so that was a long post, but I just wanted to get the ball rolling. We need something to discuss at first, and as I said before, I think it's important to put out some clear thoughts about Days 0.1-0.5. I do not want to use Day 0 as the basis of my vote; I think it'd be better and more accurate to base my suspicions on whatever will be said toDay. But that's just my opinion.

Anyways, it's good to see Zali has shown up. And hopefully Groin will appear soon as well. I don't think any of us have played with each other before which means we're all new to each other....so I think this should be an interesting Day.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Hi, Brinniel!!

I would say that I think it's a bit more important to focus on each other than on what's happened in the past. For now, though, as we're still missing Groin, I might as well just do what you did and go back through the earlier Days. It will, if nothing else, provide me with some sense of who everyone is for the Days ahead...assuming I survive this one.

Day 0.1
Legate seems to be reasonable. As does Valier. They're both reading innocent...and it looks to me like Menel is the one throwing his weight around, suspicious of both the others (though Legate more so). He also really does push the vote, and he definitely places Valier in a very difficult spot.

After it is apparant Legate will be lynched, he seems very innocent to me. He has nothing to gain by trying to confuse people with his final moments, since, I believe, no one is going to interact outside of these pre-arranged groups before his role is revealed. So I'm guessing either innocent or gifted. Unless I'm wrong and we won't find out his role until the very end. For now I'm just going to guess that he's innocent, because I can't imagine what he'd have to gain from lying.

Day 0.2
This day was a bit confusing. Naria bases her vote for Roa isn't acting the way she normally would. It's been so long now since I played WW that I can't really remember Roa's specific style, but I don't think it's quite fair to use previous games as fodder for this one. McCaber never even voted, which I find odd. 3 hours before the deadline, he wrote that he'd be back with an actual vote. He never returned. I agree with Brinniel--I fully understand human error, and being new at the game, but I'm going to be listening with interest to what he has to say about that one.

Day 0.3
Not much to go on, here. I do feel bad for Shasta, though. He never really got a chance to defend himself. If everyone had talked more that day, things might have played out differently. Shasta looked to me like a case of being extremely busy in RL than like a wolf, though that could just be me sympathizing. It's hard even for me to get a read on Aganzir or Ka, since neither of them was overly vocal, either.

Day 0.4
It's interesting to see the different ways in which people respond to this new trial day setup. Some are very cautious, like Valier. Some say little, like the players from 0.3. Others choose to argue immediately (Noggie and Lommy.) heh.
Cutting straight to the chase: A wolf wouldn't self-vote. There are fewer wolves than there are innocents and gifteds combined. They need all the help they can get. Might seems really frustrated with RL and WW and all that, and I can't say I blame him. He comes off as an innocent who couldn't bear up under the kind of attack he faced.
Noggie bugs me a bit for chewing Might out over his responsibility to the game, **EDIT: and for his general aggression--it's a valid way to play, but not one that I particularly like...** and to be honest under such an assault I may very well have caved the way Might did. His immediate vote for Miggy also bugs me.
Lommy also looks suspicious at the end--I saw Might's reaction as an honest reaction from a frustrated innocent. It remains to be seen if that is true, but if it is, it kind of makes Lommy look bad.

Day 0.5
I can't say much about this day in general, as it's overshadowed by the lack of one of the three. I don't blame Kath or Sally for their actions, since the only way it could have ended otherwise was a randomized vote.

I hope Groin shows up soon. I don't want toDay to become another 0.5.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Oops. I edited my last post without really thinking about it. I just added that one sentence in asterisks--something that came to me just as I clicked "reply". And then realized what I did. Sorry.

[Groin Redbeard]

Wow, Azalia you have done a bunch of clarifying in your last threads. I'm beginning to see you more of help now. I've looked at your past posts and you seem to be almost as helpful as Thinlomien.

That is why I'm going to focus on Brinniel.

1. In post #42, she claims that discussing will do little to help us in the future.
2. In the beginning of post #44 she contradicts herself with this remark.

I should mention that I for the most part do find Day 1 to be a very useful, sometimes even critical Day. But in this case, toDay seems fairly useless.

Why is that?

I'll see ya'll in the morning!

Goodnight

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Groin

Wow, Azalia you have done a bunch of clarifying in your last threads. I'm beginning to see you more of help now. I've looked at your past posts and you seem to be almost as helpful as Thinlomien.

Be careful, Groin. Helpfulness does not necessarily mean innocence. And in the case of Lommy, for all we know she could be a wolf, which is exactly what I suspect..

Originally Posted by Groin

2. In the beginning of post #44 she contradicts herself with this remark.

Why is that?

Just to answer your question really quick:

I think I stated this before, but I saw the first Day (Day 0) useless because not even the wolves knew each other and any votes made probably wouldn't be the same votes made in a Day where there would be an actual lynch.

I did continue on to say:

Anyways in all technicalities, this isn't Day 1 at all. So in all arguments, Day 1 could still very well remain a critical Day when it does come around..

Which was true because it was Day 0. So I still think Day 1 will be a very important Day.

Anyways, I cannot exactly see how my statement is contradictory, but I hope that does answer your question.

[Brinniel]

I figure you guys are probably still asleep right now which is why you're not posting. But I've got classes in a little over an hour won't be back for several hours until this evening, about two hours before deadline or so. Just so you know.

There's really not a whole lot to go on yet, but so far here are my thoughts:

Right now I'm liking Zali. She gives some detailed analysis and I agree with a lot that she has to say. I really have no reason to suspect her at the time being.

I'm a little worried about how Groin easily seems to trust anyone who seems "helpful." That "helpful as Thinlomien" phrase is a bit odd to me. Groin, do you think Lommy is innocent (from that quote I'm guessing you do)? And if you do, I'd like to hear your explanation because I'm certainly not convinced she is.

Actually, I'd like to hear some opinions from Groin about Days 0.1-0.5 in general. Of course, I know it's important to discuss each other because that who we're voting for. But as I mentioned before...I think it's also important for us to put out some clear opinions about other players too.

Anyways, that's all I've got for now. I promise I'll be back later, and hopefully when I do, there'll be plenty more to read.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Good morning! Your assumption was right, Brinniel--I hadn't been posting because I was sleeping.

As of right now, I still have no reason to suspect Brinniel at all. I'm also beginning to see how the detailed analysis of the previous day 0s is actually helpful--I feel like right now I know Brinniel pretty well, where as Groin is still a question mark...

I am glad that I've managed to clarify where I'm coming from for you, Groin, but I hesitate at being compared to Lommy a bit--I started to find her somewhat suspicious by the end of that particular Day. I'd be interested to see what you have to say about days 0.1 through 0.5 as well. It may sound useless or irrelevant, but it's actually quite helpful in getting to know someone.

[Groin Redbeard]

I'm here!

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Actually, I'd like to hear some opinions from Groin about Days 0.1-0.5.

I'll do that right now.

[Groin Redbeard]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Just to answer your question really quick:

I think I stated this before, but I saw the first Day (Day 0) useless because not even the wolves knew each other and any votes made probably wouldn't be the same votes made in a Day where there would be an actual lynch.

The reason I pointed that out was because you say it's important, and that you generally support Day 0, but in this case you don't. That's why it looks suspicious!

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Groin

The reason I pointed that out was because you say it's important, and that you generally support Day 0, but in this case you don't. That's why it looks suspicious!

Noo...I said I generally support the first Day, and normally the first Day is Day 1. But in this case it was Day 0 and the rules were a lot different than a typical Day 1 which is why I didn't think it was a particularly helpful Day. Does that make any sense?

Originally Posted by Groin

Day 0.2: It was very weird the way that Roa and McCaber almost immediately bonded together. When Roa voted against Naria it just became a battle of spite. Naria voted against Roa, just because she voted againste her.

Well as I said in my own analysis, I think Roa's vote was reasonable...she didn't suspect McCaber and didn't know if Naria would show up. And who else could Naria vote for? If she voted McCaber, he would've voted her and she would've been lynched. It's not really because Naria voted Roa, but how she reacted to Roa's vote which makes her look suspicious to me.