WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whoa. That was certainly... interesting. Looks like I am not leaving you yet after all. Nevertheless, seemingly the trouble did not end yet. Does anyone think TM could have been the wolf, and that we are left here with something, or does anyone even think Eomer was the wolf, and we are left here with even worse something, or do you think, like me, that there is still a wolf lurking around? However we cannot dismiss any possibilities. Not that it would make any difference.

So why Eomer, then... why Eomer? He was TM's main dueling partner for a long time, that's for sure. It looks almost like a lover death (no, this is meant only metaphorically!). And what else? More or less trusted? Not by me, anyway, but even I did not think him a Wolf as probably. So another reason to get rid of him. Or just to confuse us? He seems not to leave too many tracks anyway.

I am not probably staying here for too long toDay, but if anyone of you has anything to say right now, I will read it, otherwise, I will be back in the morning. What do you others think?

[Isabellkya]

I think there are a couple of possibilities:

a) Five wolves including the cursed; four are dead. One remains alive, the deaths at night are 'random' so as not to leave a signature from the killer - to keep in line with TP's "twist" of roles not being revealed anymore.

b) Four wolves all dead. The 'twist' of not revealing roles occured after the death of the 4th wolf - Rikae; most likely to as well, keep inline of this hidden twist of another killer. Yet why haven't there been two kills during any of the nights. Unless the remaining killer is part of the wolves - is the Fog or Voice or what have you.

Why Legate was not killed during the night is almost a bit worrying. Surely whoever is responsible for the nightly killings, would not want a 'proven innocent' to try and lead the rest of the village. Yet it could be just another tactic for the killer(s) to insure some kind of confusion and diversion.

[mormegil]

Interesting that the narration didn't include the voice or fog. What to make of that? I realize that the village is rather small now but it seems overly quiet and guarded. I have concerns that nobody will be speaking much. I'm of the opinion that the game will end when the final wolf is dead and accordingly I don't think that The Might was a wolf. That leaves:

Aganzir
Isabellkya
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
mormegil
The Saucepan Man

I'm currently inclinced to trust SpM based on the fact that he was dreamt of and deemed innocent; there would have only been the one night to convert him to a wolf and probablity states that it wouldn't have happened. That really leaves our 3 women, in my mind. Of the three Agan is, by standard definition, the most suspicious, but I have problems with that as I don't think her actions are indiciative of a wolfish Agan. I don't trust Isabell and I find myself wanting more from Kath. Meaning that she really hasn't done much to make me suspect her but also she hasn't done much that makes me trust her. That is a dangerous combination. I hope to have time tomorrow to look at both but I fear that due to other obligations today and tomorrow the time I have is very limited and if I do it will be in the last two hours of the day.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am not sure how helpful it is to us now, but here is yesterDay's voting record:

Aganzir: ++Isabellkya (Isabellkya 1)
Legate: ++Aganzir (Isabelkya 1, Aganzir 1)
Eomer: ++The Might (Isabelkya 1, Aganzir 1, The Might 1)
Isabellkya: ++Aganzir (Isabelkya 1, Aganzir 2, The Might 1)
Aganzir: --Isabellkya, ++The Might (Aganzir 2, The Might 2)
Eomer: ++The Might (Aganzir 2, The Might 3)
The Might: ++Aganzir (Aganzir 3, The Might 3)
SpM: ++Isabellkya (Aganzir 3, The Might 3, Isabellkya 1)
Kath: ++The Might (Aganzir 3, The Might 4, Isabellkya 1)
SpM: --Isabellkya, ++The Might (Aganzir 3, The Might 5, Isabellkya 1)

So, why wasn’t Legate killed last Night?

First possibility: The remaining Wolf wanted to put some pressure on him by leaving a question mark over him. But, since we know from Farael’s last dream that Legate is not a Wolf, he is unlikely to attract votes (and therefore take potential votes away from the Wolf) if we assume that we are still hunting for a Wolf, so the motive here would presumably have been to maintain confusion in the village.

Second possibility: The Wolves are all dead and there is some other sinister presence in the village which is out for itself, and which assumes the ability to kill once no Wolves remain. This would point to either Legate being said presence, or to said presence wishing to relieve pressure on him/her-self by putting Legate under the spotlight.

Third possibility: The original Wolves and the Cursed are all dead, but there was some secret role, akin to a Cobbler, which took over from the Wolves when they all died. The conclusion here is similar to that of the second possibility above.

There are no doubt many other possibilities, but they take us so far into the realm of speculation that consideration of them is unlikely to be of much assistance to us.

However, like morm, I am going to assume for the time being that we still have a Wolf on our hands, as I don't think that either The Might or Eomer was a Wolf. My current thoughts on this basis are:

Aganzir: Looking less and less likely to be a Wolf to me. Her best kill last Night would have been Legate, surely, as he was the one putting most pressure on her. For a Wolfish Aganzir, taking out Legate would have outweighed the confuson value of keeping him alive.

Isabellkya: Looking more and more likely to be a Wolf to me. I thought her the more likely Wolf than The Might yesterDay because, while his quietness was drawing attention to him, hers was (is) more subtle.

Kath: Another possible quiet Wolf and, like Isabellkya, she has played subtly and drawn little attention to herself thus far. I would like to hear a whole lot more from her before making my mind up, but I am becoming increasingly suspicious of her.

Legate of Amon Lanc: Little more to say about him than I have already said above. I don’t think that he is a Wolf, but am increasingly inclined to the idea that he is not on the village’s side. Since I believe that we still have a Wolf to find, I am still not sure that lynching him would be in our best interests.

Mormegil: Still trusting him more than any other villager, right now. I am loathe to discount him entirely, since I am well aware that he could, as a Wolf, pull an innocent act off superbly. If he is a Wolf, he has played me (and indeed most of us) like a fiddle, but I can’t see myself voting for him right now.

I am going to look back and see if there is any reason why a Wolf might choose to kill Eomer, other than for the confusion value.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have not really had time to look back over the whole thread. Early on, Eomer's suspicions were mainly directed towards Nerwen. Subsequently, he began to focus on The Might. One thing from yesterDay did catch my eye, though. Despite voting for The Might, he said:

Originally Posted by Eomer

I am suspicious of the 3 girls, mostly intuitively.

... although that does not really help me, as we know that Legate is not a Wolf and I am feeling relatively comfortable about morm at the moment. It's not much of a basis for killing Eomer rather than Legate, so I am still more inclined towards the confusion theory.

[Aganzir]

I'm actually not very surprised that Legate wasn't killed. If there's a chance there's a cobbler in this village, surely it's in the wolf's interests to leave him alive.

What surprises me more is that the wolf decided to kill Eomer instead of Saucie or morm, who both are quite proven innocents. Could it be that, somehow, the remaining wolf is one of those known innocents and doesn't want to draw attention to himself, thus leaving the others alive as well? Probably not; I fail to see the sense in that, as there are not enough Nights left for the wolf to kill all the known innocents anyway.
Or could there be a twisted wolf that doesn't appear to the seer as one? Or should we play it safe and lynch the Fog?
*returns from the beautiful realm of speculation*

Ok, so we have this Day and toMorrow. After that the game ends- either we find the last wolf or the wolf wins. This is of course assuming that the wolf isn't dead already.

I am still suspicious of Isabell, and am planning to go through her posts now.

[Kath]

I do have this horrible fear that all wolves/evil beings are actually dead and we're just lynching each other for the sport of our dear mod. It seems unlikely, but then both he and Fea played in ATM where that exact thing happened so I can't help thinking it!

I don't think the fact that Legate is still with us is particularly surprising. A known innocent someone said (I've been having trouble keeping up with the Seer dreams, if anyone feels like providing a list I'd love them), is there no chance he couldn't have been the cursed and now a wolf? It would explain the lack of his death. However, I have actually only just thought of that. The reason I wasn't surprised is because no one actually seems to trust him. Where's the harm in leaving a known innocent alive if he's not going to be followed anyway?

But I suppose if we're not going to talk ourselves in circles we are going to have to assume that there is one baddie of one kind or another in our village still.

Agan
Izzy
Legate
morm
Sauce

My natural suspicion of the latter two has been surprisingly dormant this game, possibly because of the relative ease with which we were catching wolves earlier. I have never known what to think of Agan, she is simply one of those I cannot work out. I've spoken about Legate above, which leaves me with Izzy, whom Sauce was very keen to lynch yesterDay. Can I ask why? I might be inclined to vote for her toDay as morm is right, this village will end up with only a couple of posts a Day if we have many quiet people (and yes I know I count in that, I am trying).

[Aganzir]

Actually it was
Night 1 - Saucie
Night 2 - Boro

Morm is trusted because he was Valier's latest pick and didn't die with her. But of course we have no way to know if he really is a wolf and the hunter couldn't take him because an innocent had failed to contribute, or something like that.

Originally Posted by Saucie

The Cursed was Wolverised on Night 4, if the explanation of that Night's events is to be believed. On that basis, Legate can be neither one of the original Wolves nor the Cursed.

Well, I think the narration can point at Night 3 as well. And it would make so much more sense than Night 4.

I am probably going to vote Isabell today.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, it's rather "Roll Eyes" than "Big Grin"

Well, it was at the time. But with the benefit of hindsight. Perhaps we will look back on our current predicament with a smile, wherever we end up. But, for now, it is pretty dire.

Thanks for the clarification, Aganzir. I had forgotten that Farael had dreamed of Boro and that morm's status had been presumed from Valier's last hunt.

Well, neither Kath nor Izzie has spoken since I was last here, and I am not sure whether I can make it back before the deadline. I will try. But, for now ...

++ISABELLKYA

[Aganzir]

Day 1
Isabell agrees with Nerwen that as the wolves are able to communicate also on days, it's easier for them to influence the lynch. Thinks it would be too obvious if Shasta's "Does this mean I'm a wolf thanking Nerwen for mentioning something that can help me out?" was wolfish. His posts don't contain much substance, though, but she doesn't suspect him yet.

Nerwen bothers her, though just a little- especially when she said she could be convinced to vote someone (and among these someones were two wolves).
I don't really know what to make of that comment of Izzie's. If Nerwen had been innocent, it'd be easy to say "Yea, Izzie is attacking someone who suspected her fellows"... But I don't know. Really, everyone can be convinced to vote a particular way. That's what we're doing all the time, that's what I'm trying to do now, unless someone convinces me that someone other than Isabell is in need of immediate lynching. It's just something that isn't said aloud too often, and a nice reason for a wolf to suspect someone.

Nogrod is his usual self (note: not innocent or guilty, just his usual self. The way to mention a player without really mentioning him), and Macalaure's insistance on him is worrying. Valier is suspicious and non-committal. Votes Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Isabell

Boromir is asserting his 'us-ness' a bit too strongly. I can't recall if this is usual style of word choice or not. It is another one of those shallower bluffing tools which are always obvious.

Could you explain what you meant with this? Which is a shallow bluffing tool, saying us (like Nogwolf) or suspecting someone because of saying it?

Day 2
Shasta was an odd choice for the wolves. Eomer's vote (for Nerwen) and comment aren't that worrying, except the phrasing of the first sentence (Not happy about Nogrod being lynched.)
She thinks Mac is probably not a wolf as he was the first one to vote Nog and it'd be risky the place the first (safe) vote for a fellow. Spm was the second to vote Nog, so he isn't probably a wolf either. Is worried by the timing of my vote, although the whole vote is confusing if wolfish. Legate's vote jumps her the most. Some of Nerwen's posts have been just odd.
Tries to decide whether to vote Nerwen, Legate or me (because my reasons to vote either Nogrod and Shasta were weak and allusive and I threatened Shasta).
Votes Nerwen.

Day 3
Votes Nerwen. Thinks she's too flimsy against morm.

Originally Posted by Izzie

I haven't much liked this whole 'convince me to vote how you want attitude'.. it reeks of innocent.. yet this is why I don't like it. Innocents aren't typically this obvious and blunt about how they can be manipulated by the wolves.

"This thing is innocentish and it makes me think you are a wolf. You must be a wolf because you want to behave like an innocent."
I don't like Izzie's reasoning there. And innocents can be manipulated by other innocents as well.

Day 4
I stick out in her mind, mainly because I was vocally against lynching Nerwen, but it may be a bit too obvious. Doesn't say anything about Farael vs. wolves argument until a few minutes before the deadline when she says she's inclined to believe Farael because it would be so risky for a wolf to claim to be the seer. However, she doesn't like Farael and Boro's aggressiveness. Votes Mac although doesn't like the thought of sacrificing someone in order to find who's lying.

Day 5
Votes Rikae.

Originally Posted by Izzie

The tactics of the wolves during the night are pretty straight forward; they killed the Ranger so they could make a clean kill of the Seer toNight.

But Boro had assumedly protected Farael the previous Night so that if the wolves had attacked him also then, their way should have been clear that Night. And everybody thought it was Farael indeed who had been attacked then, so how come you're so quickly coming forward telling the wolves couldn't be sure if they could kill Farael? Only wolves know whom they attacked and if their pick was protected.

Day 6
Asks if the game ends when we lynch the last wolf.
Votes me because the reasoning behind my vote for her was rather weak, and reminds everyone how she had been going after Nerwen.

Day 7
Speculates something about how many wolves there are left and says it's almost worrying Legate hasn't been killed.

**

I find her arguments against Nerwen mostly genuine - there's very little that reminds me of Mac and Nog. But it makes me wonder if there truly were two teams or something alike, because I'm not quite ready to consider her innocent either... Or then she just did her work well.

Isabell has been mostly sensible with her suspicions, but still somewhat ignorant all the time.
But what strikes me most is this change in her behaviour on Day 4. What was Day 4? The day Farael gave us the names of two wolves. The day after the cursed was turned? And on Day 5 also Rikae was lynched, and after that Isabell has been talking very little. A wolf afraid she'll slip? Just trying to avoid being noticed? Could it be possible that Isabell was the cursed? I have no idea though why the wolves would have wanted to attack her in a situation when there were people whose deaths would have been more useful to them.

Or has Isabell been a wolf all the time? As the wolves have seemingly been suspecting each other, her continuous attack against Nerwen isn't an indicator of innocence. And her behaviour has changed recently because she is the last wolf alive? To me this sounds quite believable.

edit: xed with Kath

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What surprises me more is that the wolf decided to kill Eomer instead of Saucie or morm, who both are quite proven innocents.

I would think it much of a muchness for the Wolf. Eomer had attracted very little suspicion all game, and the Wolf probably thought that there was as much chance of getting him lynched as there was either morm or I. Which puts both morm and I in danger toNight, assuming that (if Legate is not the one doing the killing) the Wolf decides again to leave him alive.

Originally Posted by Kath

I do have this horrible fear that all wolves/evil beings are actually dead and we're just lynching each other for the sport of our dear mod. It seems unlikely, but then both he and Fea played in ATM where that exact thing happened so I can't help thinking it!

If that's the case, then there is little that we can do about it. I think it more likely, if all the Wolves are dead, that there remains one (or more) secret role who can win by surviving on their own.

Originally Posted by Kath

... which leaves me with Izzy, whom Sauce was very keen to lynch yesterDay. Can I ask why?

I thought that I had made that clear. I was content to lynch either The Might or Isabellkya, since I felt that I was least likely to get any read on them out of those left. Both had been quiet, which could be indicative of a last Wolf trying to lay low, but I thought The Might less likely to be a Wolf because his apparent refusal to share his thoughts was just drawing attention to him. Isabellkya was being more subtle about laying low, and my preference was therefore to lynch her. It still is.

And Aganzir's analysis doesn't make me feel any better about Izzie. I hadn't noticed the change in her behaviour on Day 4 as I thought that she had been quite quiet throughout. But she was more involved than I had remembered her being before Day 4.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Or has Isabell been a wolf all the time? As the wolves have seemingly been suspecting each other, her continuous attack against Nerwen isn't an indicator of innocence. And her behaviour has changed recently because she is the last wolf alive? To me this sounds quite believable.

I still think that the last Wolf is the Cursed, because of the timing of Farael's dream of Rikae. But I agree. She looks bad either way.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by morm

I'm of the opinion that the game will end when the final wolf is dead and accordingly I don't think that The Might was a wolf.

My personal reasoning comes from the other end: I don't think TM was a wolf, and it is probable that when we lynch the wolf, it will all end; however, that cannot be said for sure. But, at least technically it now does not have any value for us, the game simple keeps going on and we will see for ourselves when it ends. Of course, if the last person is not a wolf, it will be hard to lynch that person based on the behavior earlier in the game (at least towards the wolves).

Originally Posted by isabellkya

Why Legate was not killed during the night is almost a bit worrying. Surely whoever is responsible for the nightly killings, would not want a 'proven innocent' to try and lead the rest of the village. Yet it could be just another tactic for the killer(s) to insure some kind of confusion and diversion.

Originally Posted by SpM

First possibility: The remaining Wolf wanted to put some pressure on him by leaving a question mark over him. But, since we know from Farael’s last dream that Legate is not a Wolf, he is unlikely to attract votes (and therefore take potential votes away from the Wolf) if we assume that we are still hunting for a Wolf, so the motive here would presumably have been to maintain confusion in the village.

Originally Posted by kath

Where's the harm in leaving a known innocent alive if he's not going to be followed anyway?

Yup, I find it most likely that given the rumours surrounding my person the remaining Wolf left me alive with the hope to create confusion, certainly I cannot make as much of my known innocence, and eventually it could be even that there was hope to get me for lynch. So, it looks explainable why I was not killed, and concerning why Eomer was killed, it seems that there is no more to gather than what was already said - either to bring confusion or to point to the two other male players who remained (apart from me) or to the three female players he mentioned - that means, to everyone.

Originally Posted by morm

Interesting that the narration didn't include the voice or fog. What to make of that?

I would not go that far into conclusions, could be Fea simply did not have enough time to put them in there or it just did not go well with the rest of the narrative. They already spoke in the evening, so maybe that was considered to be enough for us.

Originally Posted by kath

I do have this horrible fear that all wolves/evil beings are actually dead and we're just lynching each other for the sport of our dear mod.

Wait, and was that really just keeping lynching each other, last man standing, or was there some sinister figure behind that who was supposed to survive?