COMPASS & LOTR comparison

[davem]

Another perspective:
http://www.kansascity.com/entertainm...ry/418711.html

No doubt the film’s unspectacular performance was satisfying to the critics who claimed that Pullman’s books for teen readers were pushing an atheist agenda.

But don’t break out the Communion wine just yet.

“The Golden Compass” opened poorly in large part because Pullman’s books aren’t that widely read in this country. Unlike a comic book movie based on universally recognized characters, the Materials series was an unknown quantity for most American moviegoers.

But how a film fares in the U.S. is only part of the picture. “The Golden Compass” has done quite well in other countries where the novels are popular.

In fact, at theaters abroad the film did three times the business it did in America, racking up $90 million in two weeks.

“The action-fantasy should remain a respectable, rather than blockbuster, player among families through the holiday season,” according to Variety’s prediction.

By the time “The Golden Compass” ends its run in theaters and starts cleaning up on DVD (which is where most movies really make a profit nowadays), the folks at New Line may very well have the financial incentive to plow ahead with the second film.

I mention all this because it hammers home a fact: Hollywood isn’t interested in movies that are of interest only to Americans.

Before green-lighting any production, studio execs analyze the likely success of a film in foreign markets. The bigger the proposed budget, the more important it is that the finished movie appeal to audiences in Asia, Europe, South America … everywhere people watch movies.

This has a profound impact on the sort of films that get made.

So, maybe the DVD sales - the worldwide DVD sales - could swing it & there could be a (maybe less lavish) sequel....

It all leads to the big question - why did TGC flop in the US & fly in the rest of the world?

And, of course, the ROW is a lot bigger than the US, & its entirely possible for a movie to do zero business in America & still make massive profits. Or in other words, what we might see is a Subrtle Knife movie that gets a massive world-wide release, but only a limited release in the US....

Of course its only very very slightly possible we'll see a SK movie, but not likely. New Line haven't announced the sequel yet, but surely they'd want it in cinemas in 2009 - avoiding the 2010/2011 releases of TH & its sequel - so they hardly have time unless they start virtually straight away (they were filming in Oxford last year when we were there for Oxonmoot in September, so principal photography would have to be done this year). Still, maybe its not all doom & gloom for NL on the TGC front....

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by davem

Of course its only very very slightly possible we'll see a SK movie, but not likely. New Line haven't announced the sequel yet, but surely they'd want it in cinemas in 2009 - avoiding the 2010/2011 releases of TH & its sequel - so they hardly have time unless they start virtually straight away (they were filming in Oxford last year when we were there for Oxonmoot in September, so principal photography would have to be done this year). Still, maybe its not all doom & gloom for NL on the TGC front....

I doubt the Hobbit will be out for the dates they state, so it can probably fit in there. I think the scripts have been done already and The Hobbit is still just a twinkle in Jackson's eye. If he can do The Hobbit in under three years when he's also doing The Lucky Bones and Tintin I'll eat me hat.

The figures are now also saying that The Golden Compass has outperformed Narnia in the UK, even on the opening figures.

[Mister Underhill]

From what I hear, Compass will be a modest success, but it's unlikely that New Line will risk $200-300M on a sequel. For one thing, even if the overseas performance is huge -- and it's doing well, up to $187M as of this past weekend -- New Line sold the foreign distribution, so it won't see a big share of the foreign pie.

New Line typically does movies that are around $40M and under. They don't have the resources of a big studio to soak up the losses of a true loser. LotR was a big gamble for them, and it paid off. They'll probably get out of Compass with a modest profit, but I don't see them risking that kind of money again, especially with a seeming surefire Hobbit one-two punch in the pipeline.

Time will tell. Neither franchise will go forward until the strike's over. They have a script for SK, but I highly doubt they'd put it into production without the ability to do rewrites even if Compass was a blockbuster.

[davem]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

From what I hear, Compass will be a modest success, but it's unlikely that New Line will risk $200-300M on a sequel. For one thing, even if the overseas performance is huge -- and it's doing well, up to $187M as of this past weekend -- New Line sold the foreign distribution, so it won't see a big share of the foreign pie.

Yes, but....

It may come down to whether they have anything else beside TH & sequel which is worth doing - I suspect they'll hold on to the rights for SK & AS. Its still possible that TH won't be very good - though it won't lose money however bad it is because it will sell on the strength of LotR, but if it is poor & the sequel is no better, or worse, they could lose out on the whole package. If that happens something like SK, even if it only brings in a modest profit, might be considered worth doing.

Again, I'm not expecting to see any GC sequels to be honest, but a lot of people seem to be assuming that TH & the follow up will be absolutely fantastic movies, make NL a fortune, & are even speculating on more M-e movies beyond them. Its entirely possible these movies will bomb & NL be left feeling grateful they have the other two Pullman options....

[Sauron the White]

I suspect that if the next two Middle-earth movies do less than a combined $US 1.5 billion at the box office, that any future fantasy film would face a very steep uphill climb at New Line. With the exception of the last 3 Star Wars films, the 2 ME films are about as sure thing as you can get in the film business.

Regarding COMPASS sequels, it is worth noting that with the exception of the LOTR films, many sequels see their box office numbers falling as the franchise is milked to the last drop for profits. So if they do the Compass sequels, I would not expect the budget to be quite as generous..... which of course probably makes for a far less spectacular and less marketable movie. Its a downward spiral that feeds on its own lack of success.

[davem]

I'm curious to see TGC, but not desperate - I enjoyed the book but the sequels spoiled it for me. I'm not interested at all in seeing the sequels, so I can speak objectively. NL are about making movies & if they have a property that will bring in even a modest profit - & here we have to focus on the DVD sales even more than the theatrical releases - they won't necessarily just throw it away. Even a limited theatrical release & quick DVD release could prove a worthwhile venture - particularly if they shoot the two sequels back to back.

[Bêthberry]

Originally Posted by davem

It may come down to whether they have anything else beside TH & sequel which is worth doing - I suspect they'll hold on to the rights for SK & AS.

Not NewLine, but Peter Jackson has optioned at least the first book in this new historical fantasy series which won for the author the Campbell award for best new writer at Worldcon 2007: Temeraire, so it's not like there are no other good fantasy works out there.

[davem]

Variety http://www.variety.com/article/VR111...goryid=13&cs=1 reckons TGC will at least make back its production costs (& possibly also its promo budget - depending on which account you believe of how much they spent) so it looks like everything it makes from DVD/TV sales will be clear profit.

The final 2007 frame also saw "The Golden Compass" remain a stellar performer outside the U.S. with $34 million at 7,600 for a stunning $187 million foreign cume. The final international gross for "Compass," handled by a variety of foreign distribs, should eventually hit $250 million -- a stark contrast to the pic's domestic perf, which is currently at about $60 million.

The article continues with the following comment on fantasy movie Stardust:

The "Compass" performance underlines the international traction for fantasy fare: Paramount's summer-fall title "Stardust" salvaged a disappointing domestic run with $96 million overseas. Disney's "Enchanted" took in $20 million during the weekend and has already gone past $111 million overseas midway through its run, passing the Stateside cume.

Don't you Yanks like fantasy or something

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by davem

Yes, but....

It may come down to whether they have anything else beside TH & sequel which is worth doing - I suspect they'll hold on to the rights for SK & AS. Its still possible that TH won't be very good - though it won't lose money however bad it is because it will sell on the strength of LotR, but if it is poor & the sequel is no better, or worse, they could lose out on the whole package. If that happens something like SK, even if it only brings in a modest profit, might be considered worth doing.

Again, I'm not expecting to see any GC sequels to be honest, but a lot of people seem to be assuming that TH & the follow up will be absolutely fantastic movies, make NL a fortune, & are even speculating on more M-e movies beyond them. Its entirely possible these movies will bomb & NL be left feeling grateful they have the other two Pullman options....

The bubble has burst a bit on more Tolkien films. Maybe not to us as fans, but it certainly has to wider film audiences who have never looked at a Tolkien book. Droves went to see Rings and had to find out 'how it ends' but they might not be bothered with a couple more bum-numbing epics about the same old stuff - as they'd see it. Certainly not unless they up the ante and are even more soaked in orc-blood.

The Hobbit itself will do well, but if they do this 'bridge' film I predict it will be a disappointment to the Hollywood accountants - a vast proportion of the audience will go to save themselves the bother of reading the books, so why will they be bothered about something 'made up'? Ordinary Joe isn't in love with Hobbits and Elves like we are

Originally Posted by StW

Regarding COMPASS sequels, it is worth noting that with the exception of the LOTR films, many sequels see their box office numbers falling as the franchise is milked to the last drop for profits. So if they do the Compass sequels, I would not expect the budget to be quite as generous..... which of course probably makes for a far less spectacular and less marketable movie. Its a downward spiral that feeds on its own lack of success.

LotR isn't an exception. The sequels to Spider-Man, Pirates, Bourne, Austin Powers, American Pie, Shrek etc etc.... cleaned up and did better. The secret is in making a sequel that's even more hype, and that's BIGGER and LOUDER. Which is exactly what RotK was. I watched FotR in a screen with just a dozen other people but by the time RotK came along I had to sit in a rubbish seat next to a woman who snored her way through it - punctuated by her husband going "Shhhh, wake up!"

Sequels, if they come along quickly enough, mop up even more numbers as they get in a huge chunk of audience who just want to see what happens and have been varied along with the hype. But if they're left that little bit too long in the making, they can be a disappointment if they fail to live up to 110% of the hype - see Phantom Menace

[Alonna]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

LotR isn't an exception. The sequels to Spider-Man, Pirates, Bourne, Austin Powers, American Pie, Shrek etc etc.... cleaned up and did better. The secret is in making a sequel that's even more hype, and that's BIGGER and LOUDER. Which is exactly what RotK was. I watched FotR in a screen with just a dozen other people but by the time RotK came along I had to sit in a rubbish seat next to a woman who snored her way through it - punctuated by her husband going "Shhhh, wake up!"

The sequel films that you mention that did better than the first films have one big advantage over HDM. They were well received by audiences. The Golden Compass has gotten terrible reviews from critics. When the first film in a series turns out well, the sequel will tend to draw larger crowds. A good example of this is the Pirates franchise. People went out to the see the second one because the first one had been so good. When the second Pirates film was not nearly as good as the first, there was a major drop off in the box office take for the third film, twenty-five percent less. A sequel's box office take can often be correlated with how well audiences liked the one before it. Given that The Golden Compass received such bad reviews, many of the viewers may choose not to return, leading to a significantly lower box office take.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Alonna

The sequel films that you mention that did better than the first films have one big advantage over HDM. They were well received by audiences. The Golden Compass has gotten terrible reviews from critics. When the first film in a series turns out well, the sequel will tend to draw larger crowds. A good example of this is the Pirates franchise. People went out to the see the second one because the first one had been so good. When the second Pirates film was not nearly as good as the first, there was a major drop off in the box office take for the third film, twenty-five percent less. A sequel's box office take can often be correlated with how well audiences liked the one before it. Given that The Golden Compass received such bad reviews, many of the viewers may choose not to return, leading to a significantly lower box office take.

As I remember Pirates had appalling reviews. When I went to see it people were saying "What are you going to see that heap of rubbish for?" Well, a dose of Johnny Depp dressed like Adam Ant and some big ships was enough for me but... And then same people and reviewers had to eat their words.

And GC has not had terrible reviews. They've not all been 'Wow, this is better than Ingmar Bergman" but they've not been bad at all - most I've seen have been no less than 3 stars and most 4 stars?

[Sauron the White]

There is nothing equal to a sure bet in the film industry. But there are some properties which are considered safer bets than others. Lucas did three STAR WARS film and then waited an entire generation to do the next... and people speculated that the magic may not strike again. They were wrong and the SW franchise produced three more mega hits. I would be willing to wager that the next two ME films repeat that pattern. In fact, the chances are even better because
1- more people saw LOTR than the last set of SW films
2- it is a more recent experience than the first three SW films were to the next three in the franchise
3- the LOTR films were generally held in much higher regard by the media and industry and the buzz will be positive on these
4- the film industry is looking for a savior bigtime and nothing looks like as good for that role as a Peter Jackson HOBBIT right now.

from Lalwende

The bubble has burst a bit on more Tolkien films. Maybe not to us as fans, but it certainly has to wider film audiences who have never looked at a Tolkien book.

Outside of the anti-film audience that tends to permeate this site, I have absolutely no idea what you would base a statement like that on. Each LOTR film built bigger than the previous one in both box office and industry recognition. There is nothing you can point to to offer actual evidence for this.

[Lalwendë]

Oh it's correct alright. I haunt other sections of t'internet and droves of people who went to see LotR aren't all that bothered about The Hobbit, if in fact they're bothered at all. Many of these weren't all that bothered about LotR but went to see it anyway - that's marketing for you. People are soon bored. Not us, but them...the other ones...

Star Wars is interesting because if you wanted to follow the story of what happened, going to see the films was the only way to find that out! Of course this doesn't happen with films based on blockbuster books.