WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Aganzir]

Boro - The person of whose innocence I've been quite sure for the whole game.
I'm slightly concerned, though, about the way he's saying we shouldn't concentrate on this far-fetched theory of both Nog and Mac being wolves. If Mac's revealed to be a wolf, I think it might point at Boro also.

Eomer - Another I have been considering innocent. One of the main reasons he has stated himself: "If a wolf is leading the votes 5-3 (I believe those were the numbers) with two minutes to go before deadline, why would a fellow wolf appear and mount a comically late attempt to save him?"
He's being reasonable and has good points.

Farael - I really can't say about him. I've been more or less trusting him thus far, but I don't know. I think his way of suspecting people is different from the last game (the only I've played with him), but he said himself his playing style may vary from game to game, so I don't think that's a reason to be concerned.
I'm more inclined to think he's innocent.

Isabell - I admit I've only played once with her a long time ago, and we were fellow wolves then, so I don't really know about her general playing style. At least she's different from the Izzie I plotted with, but then again it was her first game here.
She's been mostly reasonable, but I still don't completely understand where she got her suspicions about me as I had already explained my reasons. However, I doubt a wolf would suspect an innocent about something that should be quite clear.

Kath - Considering her own behaviour, she looks rather innocent. But the way she kept accusing Nerwen looks weird to me. Of those twain, I think Nerwen is more probably innocent.

Legate - He doesn't sit right with me. He's not being himself, and I will be very surprised if he turns out to be innocent. I copy what I said in #248: "He just seems to be a complete, deliberate opposite to the normal Legate."
The more I suspect him, the more he seems to be suspecting me.
And I know I'm sometimes a clever wolf, you can stop repeating it now. But I also hope I'm a better tactician than what you are saying.

Mac - My opinion hasn't changed.

morm - It's hard to read him. I'm quite sure, though, that both Mac and him aren't wolves as he brought forward the Nog-Mac debate in his first post on Day 2. At the moment I'm not too worried about him.

Nerwen - I think she's no different from usual. If I remember correctly she has always gathered a lot of suspicion without ever being a wolf. While I think it's improbable that a Nerwolf had killed Shasta, I do believe, though, that she would have been capable and daring enough to do that.
I agree with her about several things & am quite inclined to consider her innocent.

Rikae - Pretty much the normal Rikae. I'm inclined to think she's innocent.

Might - I agree with (otherwise distrusted) Legate that Might has been more independent than in the previous games. But I think that doesn't necessarily point at wolvishness but the experience he has gained, and I also buy his own explanation. Other than that, there's very little I can say about him, except that I don't particularly like his Eomer votes. He's another player who is suspected every single time.

Saucie - Sensible. His argument with Mac makes me feel better about him.

**

Innocent:
Eomer
morm
Nerwen
Rikae

Possibly innocent:
Boro
Farael
Isabell
Saucie

Possibly guilty:
Kath
Might

Guilty:
Mac
Legate

**

Originally Posted by Rikae

One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing.

I'm afraid I didn't quite grasp what you mean here.

edit: xed with two Saucies, Mac and Farael

[Rikae]

Aganzir, if you don't know what I mean there, there's no use explaining - it's about as clear as it could possibly be. Well, here goes: you responded to Mac's suspicions by claiming that he was trying to stop you from suspecting him, but you really presented no danger to him at that point, as far as I could see. It looks to me like a sneaky way of trying to make someone look defensive when he isn't.
I don't find TM wolfish in the least - it's obvious to me he is simply confused, and lynching someone for coming up with his own opinions is downright ridiculous. If he is coming into his own as a player, good for him, I say.
I also don't particularly want to lynch Nerwen, as the suspicions of her seem based, more than anything, on her Nerwen-ishness. She has always been rather edgy and aggressive, as I recall; however, I will consider switching my vote to her if necessary.
I'm concerned that lynching Macalaure may be a very serious mistake. Remember, Nogrod is a very prominent player and a likely target for closer observation earlier in the game.
I strongly suggest we listen to Macalaure before we judge him.

++Aganzir

[Aganzir]

Rikae, to me that wasn't clear. It was what I think Mac was doing, whether I presented a real danger or not.

Originally Posted by Mac

So, are you telling me now that you found all - Valier, morm, and Nerwen - equally and perfectly innocent?

I found them all innocent, and for me that's good enough a reason to vote someone I suspect instead. As improbable as it was, I was also hoping someone would return and switch to you.

Originally Posted by Mac

You're making it sound as if I made my points up!

I'm not making it sound like that. I'm pointing out things that make me think it is so.

edit: xed with two Faraels and Kath

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I found them all innocent, and for me that's good enough a reason to vote someone I suspect instead. As improbable as it was, I was also hoping someone would return and switch to you.

I don't think I buy that you found them all perfectly innocent. Getting me lynched at that time yesterday was improbable, but you could maybe have done it if you had urged anybody else to follow your vote, which you didn't. It might seem unlikely, but if you would have, I would feel better about you now.

I'm not making it sound like that. I'm pointing out things that make me think it is so.

You're pointing out a possibility, but you make no claims why this possibility is more likely than the opposite. Ergo: you're making things up.

Originally Posted by Farael

Classy... curiously enough, your weak attack on Aganzir, based on this "throwaway vote" is the reason this debate is happening.

I know. But I did that to make a point against Aganzir, not to debate the issue in general. That we should leave for earlier hours.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I know. But I did that to make a point against Aganzir, not to debate the issue in general. That we should leave for earlier hours.

You amaze me... and I started that argument not for the argument itself but rather as a point against You

Or are you beyond suspicion now?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

as his post make me even more worried about him than before.

Originally Posted by SpM

It is interesting, though, that you decided to analyse in detail one of the few people (the only person?) who seriously suspects you.

Mr.Sp., that is a very wolfy way of turning things at me. This is not an argument. I chose you simply because I considered you the most suspicious of the people I wanted to analyze - and I ended with a rather unpleasant picture of you. And you are not the only one who raised doubts about me - for example Aganzir also voiced some disconcern.

Originally Posted by SpM

For goodness, sake, this is much the same (bad) point as the one that Mac raised earlier. I explained why I voted for Valier yesterDay but, as I have said above, I do still believe that there was at least one Wolf among the Nog voters.

This enthusiasm is not helping, SpM. Shouting things like "for goodness sake" is not going to raise your reputation in eyes of others, at least not if they think like I do. This "voice of Saruman" is not only about voting Valier, but about your behaviour overall. I think it is not much wise to split votes more now, yet if anyone was willing, I could advise even voting for you toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with about four hundred people since Rikae's vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okee-dokee. If there is anyone among toDay's lynch candidates whom I find suspicious, it is Aganzir. Neither Nerwen nor Mac seem suspicious to me to that extent.

++Aganzir

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I am still trying to understand why all certainty in this village revolves around Macalaure, against him or from him. It bothers me a lot.