WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Macalaure]

I thought I would make it back earlier, but now I'm here.

It seems like we're going towards lynching either Nerwen or the Might. I still think Nerwen to be innocent. The killing of Shasta is in favour of it, her genuine confusion (sorry, but that's how much of it seems to me), but most of all it's simply a feeling I get when I read her posts.

The Might, I have to admit, has rather escaped my attention so far. I should have a close look at him now.

Originally Posted by Sauce

And yet you accuse me of having a weak case against you! What I don’t understand is that you major on Aganzir, yet you say nothing about Legate. His vote for Nogrod looks much more suspicious than hers to me, coming as it did after Nog‘s very weak reasoning against Rikae. I agree that there was most likely a Wolf among the Nog voters, but I reckon that it was either you or Legate. Perhaps both.

If Legate's vote was a wolf-on-wolf vote, it was a rather clumsy one, I think. Too clumsy for Nogrod and Legate - they would have done it better or not at all. I think Legate is innocent because he hasn't said anything that was really suspicious to me, unlike Aganzir.

(edit: crossed with Saucepan)

[Farael]

I am concerned at how Mac has cowed everyone to back off of him, and yet the concerns that were raised against him have not been resolved.

He just "threatened" everyone with "prove it or shut it" and well.. .it's hard to prove anything, all we have is circumstantial evidence. That's EXACTLY why a wolf would benefit so much from attacking another wolf in Day 1, even if one of the two was to be lynched.

Therefore, I'll take a chance and vote for Mac.... yes, yes I know, I'm flip-flopping and it'll cost me... Tomorrow (game-wise) I'll be accused of just about anything for a flip-flop.

But I am too willing to put my vote where my mouth is

++Macalaure

[Macalaure]

The Might is consistent about finding Nerwen innocent. It seems like, if Nerwen is a wolf, then he is, too. However, I don't find this consistency suspicious in itself, since I come to the same conclusion about Nerwen.

Then he misses his vote, which isn't good, but doesn't tell anything about his role. If we are to buy his explanation for it, it makes him more likely innocent, because it's less probable that he got confused over the deadlines with three people pming him over the day.

His vote for Eomer itself is not so suspicious. It came relatively early, so it's not as much of a throwaway as Aganzir's. However, the reasoning behind it is bad, I think, or at least he doesn't explain it properly. The way he does explain it, it comes purely from the way Eomer attacked Nerwen. I see why he wants to defend her, but he's taking it too far. He's also focussing too much on things surrounding Nerwen, which is strange - and not helpful at all.

Today, with him and Nerwen being in the spotlight a lot, he still refrains from reconsidering her innocence. If he was a wolf and she not, then he probably wouldn't have done that, since her lynching would be a good way to save himself.

The Might could be a wolf, but I don't really think so. However, if he is, then Nerwen is, too, in all probability. But I have very little faith that they are.

[Aganzir]

Mac, what do you think is a throw-away vote? A vote that doesn't contribute to lynching someone instead of someone other? I can hardly see my vote as a throw-away, as I voted for the person I suspected most instead of someone I didn't suspect at all.

And it's hard to believe you have forgotten this quickly how A Little Green incriminated morm in the last game by constantly defending him... And she was a first-timer, Might and Nerwen aren't.

Well, at least this vote isn't a throw-away, even on your criteria.

++ Macalaure

Dog for a walk now, be back soon.

[Isabellkya]

++ Nerwen

Her comment after deadline yesterDay, was obviously in regards to self preservation.. yet did it really need to be said in that manner?

Her being against Morm is a bit flimsy in my opinion. We are in a village and we need to find the wolves. If we don't verbally attack each other and cast suspicions and accusations around; then who will do it for us? How will we find the wolves; eenie meenie mynie moe?

She comments on him attacking others for disagreeing with him; yet when it comes to commenting on those who've voiced suspicion against her, she finds it odd and weird. Which I don't see how, I think those who've voiced suspicion have made their reasons clear.

Post #295:

In conclusion– I don't know if Morm's a wolf or just a serious hypocrite. I think he's a wolf.

Post #299 - She votes for morm.

Post #300 - Boro states he was off track with morm and that he is not a wolf.

Post #303 & 309 - Waits to hear what Boro says.

Post #316 - retracts vote on Morm.

I haven't much liked this whole 'convince me to vote how you want attitude'.. it reeks of innocent.. yet this is why I don't like it. Innocents aren't typically this obvious and blunt about how they can be manipulated by the wolves. In the span of one post, she had almost recanted her vote; it was only 16 more posts before she did.

I believe it has been said that a Nerwolf would not be so bold as to kill Shasta; yet do not forget that there were three wolves alive when Shasta died during NightOne.


I think I've said enough about Nerwen..

X'd with Mac and Aganzir.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

About half of the village found Valier's reasoning for her vote for me quite weak, as it was, and I'm curious to know how you can think it's a valid point against me. She's known to have hunches, true, but she can be wrong as well. You seem to be grasping at straws now.

Of course it was weak - it was nothing but a hunch. And it was one from somebody whose role nobody knew. If I had nothing to show but her hunch, I wouldn't suspect you. It's just one more thing and worth adding.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Mac, what do you think is a throw-away vote?

A vote that doesn't even have the chance to contribute to the lynching of the one who that has been voted for. It makes it obvious that the voter doesn't really care who dies.

So, are you telling me now that you found all - Valier, morm, and Nerwen - equally and perfectly innocent? There was none among them of whom you were more sure of than the other, that you would rather have kept alive than the other? I don't find this believable. Not at all. Your vote could have achieved something, but you preferred to throw it away instead. And that is telling.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

From his very first post, he suspects Nogrod. Nothing wrong with that, but the way he does it... It looks as if it had been decided beforehand. Mac looks like he's trying so hard to find something in Nog's posts to base suspicion on.

You seem to forget that Nogrod was a wolf. I was not trying hard to find something wolfish, I was only pointing out what was there. You're making it sound as if I made my points up!

And your "a plot that went bad"-theory is far-fetched.

And you accuse me of grasping at straws...

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

A vote that doesn't even have the chance to contribute to the lynching of the one who that has been voted for. It makes it obvious that the voter doesn't really care who dies.

Actually, that's an awful slip by you Macawolf... a throwaway vote is voting for someone solely 'cos that "someone" looks like is going to be lynched. Voting for your top suspect is never a throwaway vote, as it leaves evidence for the village

Would you have us all blindly follow the lead of a few early voters to define who gets killed every day? please even you know better.

[Farael]

Following up on my last post,

Voting for the top suspects just because they are top suspects IS a throwaway vote... it shows that you don't care who dies, as long as you make sure your vote is hiddein in a bandwagon.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Farael

Following up on my last post,

Voting for the top suspects just because they are top suspects IS a throwaway vote... it shows that you don't care who dies, as long as you make sure your vote is hiddein in a bandwagon.

It was always my understanding that either one - voting for someone who has no chance of being lynched, or voting for someone who will certainly be lynched anyway - could be considered a "throwaway vote".
Which is why, incidentally, I didn't vote for you, Farael.
But I hope this balderdash about semantics and oversimplification of voting-analysis means that a vote for you won't be a "throw-away" tomorrow...

EDIT: X'd with Kath and Aganzir

[Kath]

Well ... I am back (just), and I find myself inclined to leave my vote as it is. I know that I will be preoccupied with Nerwen this entire game and here's a chance to know for sure. I hate that that's my strongest reason for leaving my vote as it is, but it's a strong one to me. I dislike getting bogged down on one person. At any rate, I did and do have some suspicion of her. I still don't understand why Boro and I were put together as wolvish chums, nor do I understand why my voting for her after that comment made me suspicious to her. In fact most of her attacks on me seemed to be solely as a result of my suspicion of her, and given that I know Nerwen is a smart player that seems an odd thing to do.

Anyway, I am rambling. I'll keep an eye on what's going on, but I think I'm going to leave this as is.

[Macalaure]

Farael (and Rikae, too), maybe we should debate what constitutes a throwaway vote and what not tomorrow, and not so close to the deadline, shall we?

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Farael (and Rikae, too), maybe we should debate what constitutes a throwaway vote and what not tomorrow, and not so close to the deadline, shall we?

Classy... curiously enough, your weak attack on Aganzir, based on this "throwaway vote" is the reason this debate is happening.

Rikae if you are an ordo you are in for a rude awakening.... if Mac is not a wolf, I'll eat my hat! I know that didn't work last time around but I can't be THAT unlucky

[Macalaure]

I feared I would again get no support for lynching Aganzir. I'm happy that it seems not to be this way.

++Aganzir