COMPASS & LOTR comparison

[Lalaith]

Hmm... I will take your wager, Thenamir, because of Japan etc, and because the school holidays have only just started in a lot of European countries.

What's your axe against Pullman, out of interest?
Is it because you see him as a rival to Tolkien? I ask because I just spent some time at the work Christmas dinner, talking to two colleagues who were big Tolkien fans in youth and now have turned against him, much preferring Pullman and seeing the Prof as long-winded and dull.
I just don't feel the same way, I liked HDM a lot, but for me the trilogy just doesn't have the mythological grandeur and mystery of Middle Earth. I have no urge to find out more about Pullman's universe the way I did about Tolkien's when I first discovered it...I feel Pullman's already told me everything I need to know.

[davem]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Hmm... I will take your wager, Thenamir, because of Japan etc, and because the school holidays have only just started in a lot of European countries. .

The question is will it make enough to pay for the sequel & a slap-up feast for New Line's Board of Directors (with pork pies, cream cakes & lashings of ginger beer)?

Seriously, I suspect it won't make enough to make it worth taking the risk on making The Subtle Knife - not as, rightly or wrongly, TGC is percieved by the public as a flop. I think that if New Line have a spare $250,000,000 to throw about they'll throw it in PJ's direction. If its a choice between handing it over to Chris Weitz to make TSN or to Jackson to throw at The Hobbit they'll go for the latter, even if it only gets used to make Smaug a little bit more dragony, Lake Town a little more Lake Towny & the Lonely Mountain a little bit more Lonely Mountainy.

Of course, it may be that the Hobbit duology makes so much money that New Line have no idea what to do with it, & so may decide to make TSN - though I suspect that given a choice they'd still use it to buy Jackson a solid gold trailer with a diamond encrusted toilet first...

[Sauron the White]

There have been so many articles published in the mainstream press the last three days about the Jackson kiss and make-up with New LIne that I cannot remember the source of the news ...... but ......... one interview with one of the principals was asked if the first two dismal weeks of box office returns on COMPASS helped facilitate the resolution and they said something to the effect that it certainly did not hurt Jacksons cause.

[Thenamir]

For those who are interested in my "wager" (sorry, no real money involved, we don't endorse gambling on the Downs!) after 18 days in release, the WORLDWIDE take for TGC is a mere $140,958,574. The box office for Christmas-release movies (such as TGC) always plummets after Christmas. I stand by my original assertion -- TGC will be a money loser for New Line. (And I raise my figurative wager to $100. )

By way of comparison/contrast, in similar timeframes in the USA alone Narnia made $153M, and FOTR $200M.

[davem]

Problem is we don't know how much NL actually spent on the movie - I've seen anything between $180 & $250 million, plus a good $50-60 million on promotion. Hence (& given NL's 'creative' approach to accounting) it will be difficult to know whether they go into profit or not. Still, & accepting what you say, you're ignoring TV & DVD sales. I still don't think they'll lose money on the project once the final numbers are in - but neither do I expect to see Lyra & co return to the big screen.

[Lalwendë]

It's not worldwide takings as it only opened in Australia and New Zealand today. And in the UK there's a surge in film attendance between Christmas and New Year - and only two kid friendly big films out to compete for the parents' money so it's still got legs over here. It won't lose money (especially given that it's nowhere near DVD release yet) but the question is will it make enough profit for them to do some more films?

Personally, I think the story is far too complex for average film audiences who are used to simpler fare, the old black/white type themes. So I doubt studios will be taking a punt on sequels unless they can dumb down the other two novels to a more simplistic level. Audiences aren't really capable of dealing with metaphysics, Milton and Blake these days and certainly the final book is far too complex to be filmable under today's standards, unless they aim for the arthouse audience and don't even attempt to make it simple.

[Thenamir]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Personally, I think the story is far too complex for average film audiences who are used to simpler fare, the old black/white type themes. So I doubt studios will be taking a punt on sequels unless they can dumb down the other two novels to a more simplistic level. Audiences aren't really capable of dealing with metaphysics, Milton and Blake these days and certainly the final book is far too complex to be filmable under today's standards, unless they aim for the arthouse audience and don't even attempt to make it simple.

Careful there, Lalwendë, there be thin ice in them thar parts. That kind of talk sounds suspiciously like one of...the Literati!!

Come on, 'fess up -- you're a secret teacher of English Literature somewhere, right? Someone who considers A Farewell To Arms a bit of light reading for a rainy afternoon? Who thinks War and Peace wasn't long enough? We've got your number now! Heat the tar! Pluck the chickens!

EDIT: Australia? New Zealand? There are more people in TEXAS.