WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Nerwen]

Legate, I owe you an apology. I was confusing your late post, where you made the remark about Rikae being a menace whatever she was, with this early one (#30):

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

One could say, having in mind what you said, that she is really asking to be lynched. You want to be lynched? Okay, we'll give you that! If you are a cobbler, no harm done. If you are a balrog, here we go - we caught you! However, this point of view would be a little oblivious to the possibility that Rikae is innocent. Personally, I don't see an ordo Rikae likely to risk in such a manner in order to divert suspicion from herself (if anything, it would have to be a joke). However, since she did not comment on her behavior this far, one cannot drop in too much conclusions...

In fact, you're right– you didn't say the thing I've been talking about until just before voting, at the end of the Day, and not until after there had been several votes cast for Rikae already.

I don't know how I came to make that mistake, because I re-read everything. I'm really sorry.

So, Legate, you're starting to look much less balroggish to me now. I don't think you'll get my vote.

I'm sure you'll find some way to interpret this apology as yet another example of my diabolical honey-tongued duplicity. (Ah, Saruman and I... we're like peas in a pod...)

Your arguments against me are the same as before: I'm cautious, threfore I'm guilty.

And then there's Mac's behaviour. First that was the linchpin of your case, then it was unimportant, now it's Exhibit A again. Do make up your mind.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

As I promised, my analysis on Brinniel.

And please folks forgive if this post looks stupid to you. I was making it mainly for myself, so I did not bother with giving it a complex and easily readable form.

DAY 1
#15
Has nothing to say. says even innocent-seeming and newbies should be watched.

#20
After being criticised by Nogrod for saying nothing, says she at least said something.

#22
Tells Rikae that using vote such as that is a waste.
This far, nothing suspicious to me at all. From the following posts, there could be something that could be ambivalent, but you'll see.

#29
Analysis of all who have posted that far. Mac was not among them, so I'm skipping that now (you can look at it yourselves). Names three possibilities why Rikae acted as he acted.

#42
Quotes and disagrees with Mac. This seems very innocentish to me. Has to go, votes Rikae. Then she says that controversial thing about Rikae. Or: the thing that several people thought suspicious. I don't think so. What she said does not seem actually in any way innormal. Says Nog is her second suspect.

Overall, on Day 1, she puts everything in a very calm way and no way raises suspicion for me. This could also mean that she is a very careful balrog. But since there is no evidence in the beginning, I cannot accuse her of anything.

DAY 2
#99
Says Nog is making far more sense that Day. In this post, she explains one thing about Mac (instead of letting him do that, but many people do that, including me) but quite logically, from my point of view. Tries to clear things between her and Nog (why she suspected him).
This could be trying to side with Nog. But if she's a balrog, why? Had she realized that TM is the Seer after what he said and that he dreamt of Nog? But her defense of Mac is very mild, in fact, I wouldn't even call it a defense.

#106
Analyzes a few people, from my POV nothing worth mentioning. Only says that Nog has good points about Mac, but is wary of the possibility of rallying masses - tactics from him. She tends to agree with me, which could be somewhat suspicious (picking the good horses), but otherwise nothing suspicious here to me. Does not like TM is so quick to bandwagon against Mac. Says Mac does not feel like typical Mac and is too defensive.
Here she starts to be suspicious about Mac. Not suspicious at that moment.

#110
Only helps to clear up some rules.

#122
A list of whom she finds suspicous, at least partially: Mac, Nog (keeps switching thoughts on him), Kath for her attitude to Nog, TM for bandwaggoning, Gil for two safe-votes in two days.

#135
Says she'll vote for Mac or TM, whom she does not want to simply leave as I did.

#143
Says Mac is most probably a desperate balrog (and that me and TM being a master and an apprentice is a really scary idea).
Now this may be, if she were a balrog, that she already dropped Mac as a collateral damage.

#145
Says we cannot spread votes anymore (Mac 3, Gil 2, Nerwen 1, TM 2). Mac or Might?
Does not know whom to choose. Now, if she's a balrog, getting TM lynched would be nice, especially if she knows he's a seer. But, that would also get her suspicious. Could it be that this post was a vanguard of the post that was about to come? That would make sense for a balrog.

#149
Votes TM in the very last second. Note, this would not save Mac unless someone else voted (and also it did not - it was the last vote that day, 2 minutes before DL). A balrog could have hoped to save a comrade this way if someone appeared in the last minutes. It could be that Brinn, if she were a balrog, could have waited if she could safely vote for Mac or that she did not know what to do and in the last second tried to desperately save Mac? The former looks too complicated on me. I think Mac's co-balrog would have acted with more sureness, either for Mac or TM, but no need to prolongate this pondering. Only whether she was waiting for something to happen.

#152
(xed with Lommy's stop post) Sees that it did not make much difference.

I am going to stop here on posts #145 and #149. First, Brinn says "I don't know. Mac or Might?" Then Mac votes for TM, making the votes for TM 2. Then Brinn votes TM.

Now, this is what troubles me, for this can be balrogish. Let's see this scenario: Start of Day 2. TM says he suddenly switched his opinion on Nogrod. Brinn concludes he is the Seer and Nog innocent. She sides with Nog. People start to go for Mac. She is prepared to leave him die, but as she sees suspicion against TM, sees an opportunity to lynch the Seer (or if she did not realize his role, then at least opportunity to lynch an innocent instead of Mac. But the Seer thing would be more logical, as we'll see - it's a stronger reason). She's waiting whether to vote Mac or TM: if she votes Mac, she can be the one to seal the fate of her comrade - she does not want to abandon hope. But if she votes in the way that it saves Mac from the gallows, then she will be definitely suspicious. But if she's sure that she lynches the Seer AND saves her friend, I'd say that's worth it. She really does not want to spread votes anymore: she wants everyone to vote Gil or TM, if possible. And she does not know yet how Mac is going to vote. Then, when she sees Mac voting for TM, she decides and votes also in hope that someone else joins the cause, saving Mac from gallows.
That's just a scenario, however. I don't know whether it's plausible. There are other good reasons why she acted how she did - simply, because she was indeed undecided.

Let's move on:
DAY 3
#179
Says it's obvious that TM dreamt of Nog on night 2, as only that makes sense (with this I agree). Speaks about several people, including myself, to the situation. Agrees with me on Nerwen.

#187
Speaks about Nerwen, the new thing she adds to what I said are some things about Nerwen's analysis of Volo and her "accusing her accuser" (me).

#189
Clears up things to Naria (about TM's dreams - I said the same thing also as I overlooked it). Clears up some other things about Gil (who said she was defending Mac), replies to Shasta... Says that it's good to see the "enigmas" are more vocal, probably out of fear of modkill.

#193
Says Nerwen's defensive behavior resembles Mac's yesterDay.

In these last posts, she openly sides with me against Nerwen. Again, this can be the "betting on a good horse", now hoping (as a balrog) that by siding with me she wins the day.

So, Brinn, if you are a balrog, I give you the permission to burst with evil laughter now. I am not decided on you being too suspicious.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Legate, I owe you an apology. I was confusing your late post, where you made the remark about Rikae being a menace whatever she was, with this early one (#30):

Apology accepted, Captain Needa.

I'm sure you'll find some way to interpret this apology as yet another example of my diabolical honey-tongued duplicity. (Ah, Saruman and I... we're like peas in a pod...)

Yes, I could. Let's say - now you are behaving again safe, backing away. But there's one thing, you behave like that always - I would expect a change in your behavior had you been a balrog. So maybe, maybe it's indeed your style. But that's still not leaving it.

Your arguments against me are the same as before: I'm cautious, threfore I'm guilty.

And then there's Mac's behaviour. First that was the linchpin of your case, then it was unimportant, now it's Exhibit A again. Do make up your mind.

I said: both.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sort of a finish to my Brinn-analyse.

#31

Originally Posted by Mac

Brinn starts by saying nothing and only agreeing. She then snaps at the first criticism, too. In her case, it seems less innocent than in TM's. Her later thoughts appear much better, though.

#37

Originally Posted by Mac

I think there is quite a bit which can be seen from the way people deal with Rikae.
There's the baffled ones, like TM, Shasta, Sally, Kath.
There's the analysers, like Legate, Brinniel, and Nerwen.
Their reactions are the common ones and, I think, rather unsuspicious.

(then he continues on Mith&Nog who are suspicious to him. And mentions Nerwen: "Nerwen pointed out her confusion once too often, too." - I don't know if I mentioned this in my analysis of Nerwen.)

#73

leaning unsuspicious
Brinniel

Then there is a new Day, and about five posts nothing but silence on her.

What to make out of it? He's keeping very consistent and logical about her (see on next Day). Is it possible that she's an ordo and he already made some decision on how to approach to her, or that she is a balrog and he acts the way that they keep enough distance? May be so. He tries to mention her enough, but not too much. But of course no one can mention everyone in all his posts.

DAY 2
#116 about 3 and half an hour before DL (so, quite late)

And while I'm 'only' very wary of Nogrod, I am very suspicious of Brinniel. I will come back to that when I'm back.

#124 is an analysis of Brinn. You'd have to look at it as a whole, I'm not quoting it here.

Then one post nothing, then #137 he starts by quoting and replying to Brinn and then says that he would like to go for Brinn, but no one else wants to. I also suggest you read it whole if you are interested in the Brinn-case.

Then he voted TM for reasons above (he was the only co-bandwaggon that could save him, and he said one post before that he does not want to vote for Gil).

Yes, the things in #116 and #124 look really strange. It's either that he wants to drag innocent Brinn down with him, or that it's a double-trick and he wants us to think that she's not a fellow balrog because he would not put a fellow balrog to such danger.

I need to read, read, read and see also what others think about it, if they have any points about things I overlooked and then I need to think, think, think.

[satansaloser2005]

First of all, Legate I thank you for your handy little post a bit ago. It makes my post SO much easier, especially since I've just woken up. So if I seem a little fuzzy, it's because I am.

Really condensed nutshell version:
Brinn tells Rikae her vote is a waste (nonretractable and all that)
Brinn is the FIRST ONE to vote Rikae (not including Rikae herself of course)

That alone makes her suspicious in my eyes. She says she doesn't want Rikae to come back the next day and look innocent. I'm thinking Brinn didn't want her to come back at all. (yeah obvious I know. again, I'm tired)




Also I'm not terribly at ease with the fact that everyone assumes Might has dreamed about certain people. Now it does make sense from Might's posts that he DID dream about Nogrod, but perhaps it was just his voting of Mac that cleared him in Might's eyes. Besides Nogrod however, and even that is fuzzy, I am very uncertain as to who Might might have dreamed of. I just felt the need to throw that out there.


Updated suspect list (very subject to change)
Brinn (see above posts by several people)
Kath (still makes me uneasy....don't know why though)
Mith (post 148 Mith says everyone needs to vote or Mac will die by default....protecting her balrog brother?)


Not really sure WHAT to think
Legate
Gil
Nerwen

Thinking they're probably innocent (or not worth my trouble)
Nogrod (assuming that Might DID indeed dream of him)
Shasta
Naria


be back tomorrow night (after the next day starts) with more comments. also may be able to borrow a friend's internet connection right before deadline if i am needed. good luck all~!

[Nerwen]

Hey, Legate, you realize that your cautious, unwilling-to-commit-yourself analysis of Brinniel is, according to you, a symptom of balroggery? In fact you've been playing pretty darn carefully most of the time. I find it... interesting that you claim to see your own playing style as evidence of guilt in somebody else.

I'm also noting that though I've taken back part of my argument, you were the one who made the main case against Rikae– so I still think it's odd that you went after me for my actions that Day. Now you say the Rikae angle isn't important, but in your original accusation it most certainly was.

However, I've been reading through the posts at the end of yesterDay, and I'm inclining towards thinking Brinniel's more suspicious.

What's bugging me, though, is that the two people who have already voted Brinniel are both ones I'm doubtful about, especially Sally with her modus operandi of "pop up from nowhere, make bizarre comment, disappear again". Still, she seems to have got better.

Hmmn. I don't know what to think, yet. I have to make up my mind very soon.

[Nerwen]

I have to go now, so

++Brinniel.

I've been reading through her anti-me posts from earlier. Some very twisted logic there.

I'm still dubious about Legate, though.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nerwen! You seem to be misusing the fact that I tried to look at you in somewhat calmer way...

Anyway, seems I don't have time to make analyses on anyone else toDay, in fact I'm rather exhausted... and I'm not even going to reply to Nerwen, because all she says I have already answered before so there's no need to repeat myself hundred times over... I'm going to appear before the DL and then vote, and most probably for Nerwen. There is still time for people to post whatever they think might be helpful...

One thing I can say as very probable is that if Nerwen is not a balrog, Brinniel is. And if we lynch Brinniel and she is not a balrog, I say we lynch Nerwen. Simple as that.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

One thing I can say as very probable is that if Nerwen is not a balrog, Brinniel is. And if we lynch Brinniel and she is not a balrog, I say we lynch Nerwen. Simple as that.

Agreed. And if we both get lynched, and neither of us are balrogs... I think you all know who to lynch next, right?

Now I really have to go. Good night, all.

[Brinniel]

A half an hour left til deadline....where is everyone? Five votes have been made, so five more should be coming in.

I was going to go after Nerwen or even Kath, but it seems now I will have to vote for either Legate or Sally if there's any chance of saving myself.

I still don't find Legate all that suspicious. Sally I'm not so sure.

[Kath]

I'm sorry, I know I've barely been here toDay but I've been out since midday and only just got back and I want to go watch what's left of Come Dancing so I'm gonna vote quickly and go. I will try to be much more active tomorrow as I shouldn't be as busy!

The Day has seemed mostly to be an argument between Nerwen and Legate, but I don't actually think either is suspicious for it. It reminds me of my argument with Noggie, so I can hardly accuse them on that basis.

The suspects of the Day seem to be Nerwen and Brinn. Well, I don't find Nerwen suspicious and I'm not sure about Brinn. I've seen analyses of her and I can see the arguments against her, and I've also not managed to get a feel on her yet and that, well, lack of anything does suggest some suspicion to me. But I'm not convinced.

Mith has suddenly become very calm but then she hasn't really been under suspicion toDay. Still she answered Nerwen very calmly, so I'm thinking she's innocent at the moment.

Argh, where have I got to.

Probably innocent:
Mithalwen
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
Nerwen

Really can't get a grip on:
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Naria
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin

Huh, so basically I think everyon who speaks is innocent and everyone that doesn't is suspicious. Wrong way round for me!

But, of those I'm left with. Oh I really don't know toDay. Actually, I think I might put Shasta into the innocent list, as reading back over her posts quickly they actually look pretty good. And Naria, I don't think a balrog would have such confusion over how many Night's we've had so I guess she's eliminated. Which leaves Brinn, Gil and Sally.

I don't want to vote Gil. He's really getting involved this game and that's hardly something to be discouraged. It does generally mean he has a role of some kind but I haven't seen enough yet to know if it's a good or bad one.

Brinn or Sally, Brinn or Sally. I've gone over their posts. Brinn's mostly analytical, Sally's a little lacking in substance. So:

++SALLY

Because of the comments around The Might mostly I think. We all know that everything we assume about who he dreamt of is just that, an assumption, so this seems an odd comment:

I just felt the need to throw that out there.

Right, I'm off.

[Mithalwen]

A post count ...correct me if I am wrong

Brinniel 3 (Sally, Gol, Nerwen)
Sally 1 (Nogrod)
Legate 1 (Shasta)


Not voted

Legate, Me, Kath, Naria, Brinniel.

Every has at least turned up, still open .... hmmm

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Mith (post 148 Mith says everyone needs to vote or Mac will die by default....protecting her balrog brother?)

Sally, you are free to suspect me but I fear you misunderstandand misrepresent me . That is not what my post says at all. "Vote swiftly or it will be Mac by default" was aimed specifically at Brinniel's dithering between Mac and the Might a couple of posts earlier .

I wasn't trying to protect Mac.. I wanted Brinniel to nail her colours to the mast. Not vote to save Mac but a vote to leave an "audit trail". If people leave voting to late then abstain on the grounds that it wasn't going to make a difference it is a bit shifty to me.

If for arguments sake Brinniel and Mac were both wolves and they had already a strong suspicion that the Might was the seer - not impossible given the various possible hints, Brinniel was in an awkward situation last night - either to put Mac's vote quite beyond reach or to vote for the seer. Either could look bad when the role was revealed on death... but not voting looks bad too. Of course ordos dither too but you have to folow up what leads you can.
But to take that post so out of context and twist it .... and make it grounds for major suspicion? That is a little suspicious...