WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Mithalwen]

Sorry I am here for a little while ...I think TM might have left a clue... I must look back but when I was thinking about the game this morning I wondered if he was the seer and hoped that if he were that the Ranger might have protected him ...

but I can't quite remember what it was .....must look... sorry to be useless...

[Kath]

Losing the Seer, well that sucks. And the candidates for dreaming are Legate, Mac and Nog.

I thought at first it was possible that The Might dreamt of Nog on Night 1 and found him to be evil, but the turnaround on Day 2 puts that theory down and, depressingly for me, means I might have to let go my suspicion of Noggie, as such a switch does look like The Might dreamt of him and found him innocent. Though, it's good really as an innocent Noggie is an asset to the village. And then Day 2 it looks like he dreamt of Legate and found him innocent as well. I don't think he dreamt of Mac, I think he just found him suspicious. If you look at his post where he explains his vote he states that he is happy with being suspicious of Mac because Legate and Noggie are. It looks like he's decided to side with those he knows to be innocent.

Oh and something from yesterDay. Brinn, I'm sorry that you felt I was 'going on' at Nogrod but I would rather be accused of that than of letting a balrog walk the village unmolested. I've decided I don't want to do analyses this game, so I'm trying something else but still trying to helpful. My apologies if it isn't coming across that way.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

In contrary to Nog, I believe whatever he said about Kath in his last post does not necessarily have to be a reason for his kill. Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not.

I didn't say she necessarily is a balrog...

Originally Posted by me

I kind of wonder right now is whether his last point about Kath was the thing that brought the alarm bells ringing with the balrogs or was his confidence on Mac enough?

Originally Posted by Legate

So I'd be careful before making conclusions like this.

I am most careful. Just check my wording above. Now don't make me suspect you on this moment Legate. That's the last thing I need in the RL packing I'm in.

EDIT: X'd with Kath this time

[Nogrod]

Gah, forgot the mid-part of what I meant to say...

Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not.

Darn you balrog you or then you're just somehow losing your grip here! So the balrogs "learned" that The Might was the seer? Right? Now how do you know that my friend? You said something like "we should be careful before making conclusions".

Maybe it was because it was no conclusion but personal knowledge you just slipped away there?

Okay. I'm not sure I wish to press on this.

But you really make me wonder Legate. You do, even if I'm inclined to think you innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh dear. To have lost the seer is quite a blow. No doubt the balrogs are feeling quite proud of themselves for their slaying last night.

I have to be to work in a bit, but I'll be back in a few hours and will post when I get back for the evening. Definitely a lot to consider in Might's posts. *wanders off mumbling and contemplating*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I didn't say she necessarily is a balrog...

I am most careful. Just check my wording above. Now don't make me suspect you on this moment Legate. That's the last thing I need in the RL packing I'm in.

I didn't say you say she necessarily is a balrog. I was speaking generally, not about you - that we should be careful with quick conclusions. What you said is a matter that's good to be considered, but in no way apparent.

Pack up quick, so that you can fully focus on posting and we avoid things like that, that's really the last we need.

EDIT: after seeing Nog's second post. No, I am not saying anything anymore. Nog, really, either the packing is making you nervous or you are a balrog after all. Let's stop it! That's really the last thing we need.

Anyway, I probably said all I had in mind. I'm waiting for others to post. Till then, bye.

[Mithalwen]

I am not sure if this is the hint that the balrogs picked up on or whether it was his change of opinion on Nogrod. But the Might Said "See now" in his first post and uses "look" a lot ... this isn't as mad as it sounds. Some people are visually orientated, others aural or emotional and their language can reflect this - an aurally orientated person might have said "It sounds as if.".. an emotional one " I feel that"
... but it could have been an indication that he was the seer.

My suspicions of Nogrod has lessened - I get the feeling that the wolves were untroubled about who died save perhaps Macalaure who might have personal reasons for not voting Rikae. It was certainly quiet save for those who we know about or who have possibly been cleared (Noggin or legate..)
but I am uneasy about Brinniel because of her reluctance to vote last night..... torn perhaps between which would look worse to jump on the bandwaggon and seal a fellow fiends fate or not to vote?

I also am beginning to suspect Nerwen ... Macalaure is careful to mention her in his Day one summaries a couple of times, and she makes a big deal of being fair to Rikae, yesterday she attempts to widen the field from Macalaure ...

Could be a flying under the radar wolf?

Not terribly certain of any of this but about ready to go for a while ... I won't have ot vote before tomorrow lunchtime at the earliest so I hope there is some reaction to read.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, I'm here, again.

Will someone please tell me how long before execution, so I don't mess up and not vote (again)?

[Kath]

I think you have 21 and a half hours until the deadline, so call it 21 hours to make sure you're back in time.

[Nogrod]

Well, whatever we have talked this far it is my main concern toDay - with the lack of time I have with this - that we are fast losing vocal players and that makes the game boring and easier for the balrogs.

Originally Posted by Kath

I'd rather a boring game than a higher chance of being slaughtered in my sleep.

I do disagree wholeheartedly. I'd rather lose a magnificient game than win a lousy one...

Okay, I saw your edit Legate. Enough for me too. But in case I'm dead soon and the balrogs somehow leave you alive Night after Night, I wish to make it known that some people should look at you and Kath as well. I started this Day pretty confident you were innocent, even dreamt of (thence it would have been N1 Legate, N2 Mac - that was the scheme I myself believed to be true untill you posted...), but there's the uncertainty with The Might's total turn around with me on the beginning of Day2 (and it's perfectly possible that he dreamt of Mac the first Night but didn't dare to raise the issue as not to reveal himself - there was little to actually say against Mac on Day1 even if you and I noted there was something wrong in him but we couldn't argue about it either).

But back to the issue.

We need the talkers now with all these absences both experienced and foretold by people.

And it's also statistically quite believable that we have at least one - if not two - balrogs among the quieter folk.

Let's not kill this game by leaving alive only people who post once a Day - if even that much.

And we have other leads as well.

Mith said she was uneasy about Brinn. That I think is a case in point. Not the least because Mac made something of a show with his "attack" on Brinn in the end of yesterDay. I think there was no actual threat Brinn would have been lynched at that time of the Day - and if she was Mac would then be alive himself. So that could a nice balrog-on-balrog thing?

Okay. I need a break to finish my packing. I'll drop in before I go to sleep.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right. I plan to use the time I have toDay (resp. tomorrow my time) to make some analyses of all people, or at least those that are more suspicious to me. Only from what I gathered by skimming through the threads, I:

- am trusting Nogrod now
- believe Gil innocent
- definitely have to take a look at Brinn
- will look at Sally, but I believe there is very little to collect
- will look at Kath
- will look at Mith
and finally, believe Nerwen could be a balrog.

Shasta&Naria seem more dead than alive, so I'm skipping them completely - it's no use. Otherwise, I hope I have not missed anyone.

Now, why Nerwen. I was going through Mac's posts and compared some things. I will send what I found in the following, separate post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

What follows is an analysis of Nerwen's posts, along with comparing some of them to Mac's and why I think she could be a balrog.

Nerwen's posts:

#23
Nerwen starts with "Greeting, fellow miners." and such stuff in a way that reminds me of "Hello, I am one of you, I be your friend." Then she says - no, I have to quote it all:

In principle, I'm inclined to suspect the "quiet ones". After all, if I were a werebalrog I'd be lying low at this point, waiting for somebody to accuse an innocent miner so I could jump on the bandwagon.

First sentence: saying "my tactics is going to be that I suspect people who do this and this" is a very good baddie-program, because one can hide behind this. Second sentence: this is rightaway saying in the same paragraph "If I were a werebalrog, I'd be doing something else than I'm doing now", so logical conclusion - I am not a balrog. Now that's a nice cover.

Then she continues a little bit safer and says that of course silence is not incriminating yet, because not everyone could post.

Then she says Rikae maybe diverts suspicion by this, which may be very nicely using the vote Rikae made on herself to emphasise the fact that there can be sinister intentions behind Rikae's self-vote.

Other posts are not much better.

#33
In response to Mac - she speaks about Rikae (meaning she does not know her style of playing):

Well, I don't really know any of you people yet, but I agree that it doesn't make sense for the cobbler to try and get lynched at this point.

She speaks about Rikae in particular, but that's also saying "I don't know you people, and especially I don't know you, Mac, to whom I am responding". That's a way for a balrog to cover that she knows her accomplice from Night talks.

#53
Votes Rikae, but in a way of proving how honest she is:

Look, Rikae, I wasn't going to do anything until you'd had a chance to speak for yourself.

Then she makes another safe-comment:

I can't say that you or anyone else has done anything that definitely says "balrog" to me– but time is running out. In the absence of a better candidate– [votes Rikae]

Saying that you do something because you don't have better candidate gives you the chance to vote without explaining your motives, sooner or later. You just say you didn't know. So if anything, this could be a good post for a balrog.

Day 2:
#103
Explains the swiftness of her vote the Day before. Nothing much to be said about that.

# 127
That's her last post and also her vote for Day 2.

Unfortunately, we seem to have another bandwagon starting up. Since there have been three votes to lynch Macalaure already, I propose [votes Gil-Galad]

Now this is mainly what made me think she is the balrog. Because Mac seemed to gather votes far too fast, she tried to save him by starting another bandwagon. Or whatever, only that she would not vote for him, because there were many votes to come still and voting Mac would 1) be safe bandwagoning from her, 2) will heighten the danger that was upon her comrade.

And what said Mac on Nerwen?
#31
Only a short sentence sideways:

Good points about her [Rikae] by Nerwen and Legate.

Day 2:
#116
Says he trusts her (names her among the few, that being Kath, Mith and Nerwen).

#137
Does not mention Nerwen, but speaks about his situation. I mention it because it was after Nerwen voted for Gil. It was Mac 3, Gil 1 at that time.

Gil is the only co-bandwaggon so far. Even though he voted me, he's also one of the few who's suspicious of Brin, so I would only vote him if I really had to save myself.

All in all: I think Mac was very careful towards Nerwen. They mention each other in positive sense, but maintaining some sort of distance - enough distance not to be too personal towards each other.

All right. So that's it. I'm saying rightaway that I got sort of carried off when I was writing this and that I did that with a zeal. But the zeal was provoked by the finds I made and that I did when I was still absolutely calm and undecided. Simply, this post is looking at everything from the most suspecting angle. What makes me wary is the fact that I once made a mistake, similar analysis with similar zeal and it ended wrong. But now it seems quite probable to me that Nerwen could be a balrog. You must judge for yourselves. Now, I am a little tired, so I'm going to sleep. Will be back in about 8 or 10 hours.

Oh, and, this thing also makes me think better of Mith, who mentioned Nerwen as suspicious on her own account (#168). If Nerwen shows to be guilty, then I'd say Mith is leaning to innocence.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I'm saying rightaway that I got sort of carried off when I was writing this and that I did that with a zeal. But the zeal was provoked by the finds I made and that I did when I was still absolutely calm and undecided. Simply, this post is looking at everything from the most suspecting angle.

That's the way it works... one gets pretty confident one is right.

I find this a hard nut to crack. Nerwen could be read as innocent and a caring one (she indeed started a alternate-voting pattern which we needed after only Mac had gathered votes). But the difference between voting Rikae as "there were no better candidates" to her quite proactive idea of starting a new lynchline could be interpreted quite balroggishly.

Also your points on how Mac traeted her do raise suspicions.

Mith's easy leap for Gil I do find a bit odd as well.

Also it's interesting why Mac chose The Might instead of Gil... Looks like at least he thought he knew... or thought he knew

Okay. I need a few hours of sleep.

Please post people!

I'm pretty lost right now as I don't have time to look back with care people like Shasta or Sally.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Phew, 21 hours. Okay, I'll go back and read some stuff.

[Kath]

Um, Shasta you know that time was from when you last posted right? From now you've only about 17 hours I think.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay. So I like Legate's points on Nerwen, but I'd rather go back and read for myself. Reading up one or two posts, Nogrod seems to be rather defensive of Nerwen. More later.

[Nerwen]

I guess I'm bound to reply to this. Legate, is (wilfully?) distorting my comments.

1. My "for want of a better candidate" comment on Rikae did not mean: "I think you're innocent but I'm going to lynch you anyway". It meant: "I'm voting against you because you're the only one I suspect at this point, in preference to some random person who has done nothing to arouse my suspicions."

On the whole I thought she was more likely to be the cobbler than the balrog– or if not, that she was acting as a de facto cobbler, and as such was a liability.

(That suggestion originally came from Legate, by the way.)

What am I, new here, to make of people telling me, "Oh, it's just her playing style"? How am I to know whether to believe you?

Once again– I voted for Rikae because she was the only one I suspected at all.

I may have cast the first suspicion on her, but it was other people who built that up into a case in my absence. I seem to recall Legate being one of the prime movers, but I'll have to go back and check.

Because Mac seemed to gather votes far too fast, she tried to save him by starting another bandwagon.

2. I did not "try to save" Mac. I suspected a number of people; he was just one of them. Gil was another. (I now think he's innocent.) It was looking to me as though we were going to get a repeat of the "no trace" voting of the first Day, so I decided to widen the field. As simple as that. (I was actually following Nogrod's lead, in case no-one has noticed.)

3. Legate, in his list of my posts, has left out one. He says I only made two posts. I made three.

The one he has left out (#108) was the one where I analysed Volo's posts and suggested his death might point to Macalaure and/or Gil-Galad. Someone– Kath, I think– was dismissive of my effort, saying that Volo hadn't said enough to be worth considering. However, we now know Mac was indeed a balrog. So... why did Legate not mention that post?

Oversight?

Deliberate oversight?

Legate, with his "weasel words" and twisting of facts, is starting to smell balroggish to me.

[Nogrod]

I'm wishing to see Nerwen alive also toMorrow. I'm somewhat happy with her reaction.

I've just enough time to vote...

From the enigmatic people I find most suspicious

++ Sally


I'm not altogether happy with my vote but as I need to fly now I'll have to settle with it.

I hope to meet you toMorrow, hopefully with one balrog less among us.

[Brinniel]

Of any clues that The Might might've left us, it seems most obvious that he dreamt of Nogrod Night 2. The way he went from suspecting and voting for him Day 1 to completely trusting him on Day 2...it only makes sense. So for now, I'm ready to believe Nogrod's innocent. As for who Might dreamt of the first Night, it's not so clear. I agree it is possible he dreamt of Mac. Though he gathered some suspicion, Mac clearly was not going to be lynched Day 1 and if Might had voted him, it would just been a throwaway vote. So, he went with his next suspect at the time: Nogrod. Of course, it is quite possible he dreamt of someone else entirely Night 1, but we can't know for sure.

Legate is a complete toss-up right now. Either he's innocent, or he's a balrog taking advantage of the fact that the seer thought Legate was innocent. For the time being, I find Legate leaning more on the innocent side, mainly because I haven't really had a reason to suspect him before. But I won't eliminate the possibility he could be a baddie.

Kath I remain suspicious of for her ongoing arguments against Nogrod the previous Days. She really did keep going on about him, and said relatively little about anyone else. I don't recall she even mentioned Mac, who was obviously receiving the most suspicion at the time. And upon everyone discovering that Nogrod is most likely innocent, any balrog could say, "Whoops, my bad."

Legate makes some excellent points against Nerwen, and I'm beginning to think she's not as innocent as I once thought. I would like to take a closer look at her, though it will have to be done later.

About our "enigmas": There's so little substance from them right now, I feel like voting for one would have to come from wild guess. But even scarier is letting a possible balrog among Sally and Shasta slip under the radar. I'm still not sure what to do about them.

I also need to take a look at Mac's posts and see if it's possible to pick up anything from them.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hey, I /am/ trying to be more active. Honest!

Anyway, I'm not good at in-depth analysis. It's hard for me to type out things like that.

Some mental notes I made, reading back through the thread:

It's pretty clear that Might dreamt of Nogrod on Night 2, as has been said. However, Legate is a mystery to me. Helpful, yet if Nerwen is to be believed, a bit word-twisty. I think I'll go back and look at him in particular.

[Nerwen]

At the risk of protesting too much, I'd like to address the “Nerwen lynched Rikae! She must be evil!” argument in a bit more detail.

Seriously, what is going on? I did not lynch Rikae all by my lonesome.

Rikae was lynched by the following seven people, in order of voting:

Rikae.
Brinniel.
Gil-Galad.
Volo.
Nerwen.
Legate of Amon Lanc.
Nogrod.

I've re-read the Day 1 posts, and it looks as though a lot of the push to lynch Rikae came from Legate of Amon Lanc himself. Remember his "Rikae's a liar" business?

Legate is, at the very least, being a bit of a hypocrite.

I'm not accusing him of balrog-hood at this point, even though he's making what I think is a very dubious case against me. He may have, as he says, got carried away– if so, I feel that what set him off was not really anything I did, but the fact that Macalaure stated his belief in my innocence, more than once.

Well yes, that does look bad for me. Except– would Mac have been so vocal in support of a fellow balrog? Remember, no-one was accusing me then. There was no reason for him to defend me. My own opinion is that his comments about me were simply a blind.

I will be back later with some more general comments.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, I've gone over pages 1 and 2 with a fine tooth-comb and I must say that Legate and Brinniel are seeming the most suspicious to me at the moment.

I'm going to side with Nerwen, at least for the moment; the lynch of Rikae Day 1... well, it seems to me that Legate pushed it more than Nerwen did.

Also, a statement of Brinniel's discomfits me. On page 2. I believe it was (I'm bad at quotes, sorry) the statement about "not wanting to risk Rikae coming back on Day 2 and sounding innocent", which translated to me as "not wanting Rikae coming back on Day 2 and defending herself".

[satansaloser2005]

Legate seems to be garnering quite a bit of conversation today. My take on the matter? I can't decide if he's balroggy or if he's just stirring up the conversation for the rest of us. My suspicion still lies with Brinniel. I can't quite put my finger on it, but she just appears to be....what's the word....odd. Only word I can think of right now.

Alas, I need to cast my vote now, so that I ensure my ability to do so at all today. If I am incorrect in my suspicions or if I am lynched today by some drastic turn of events, I have but to wish you all good luck in your balrog-finding endeavors. Here goes:

++Brinniel


I'll try to get back in the morning (my time) and post some more discussion. Sorry I've been so short postwise. Both the day phases have taken place on the days when I am busiest. Anyway I'm going to head off to the wonderful world of sleep so I can get up and try to post in the morning

[Gil-Galad]

i totally agree for Brinniel being the next logical choice as a balrog, her subtle defense of Mac last day shows to me that she was indeed trying to protect him.

sorry for my shortness i will have a longer one tomorrow when i am no longer under the weather.

++Brinniel

in case i miss it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm about to go to bed, and there's a good possibility that I'll sleep right through the deadline, so I'll vote now. As there are already two votes on Brinniel, and there's been some lamentation on earlier days about only the one choice of lynching, I'll go with my other suspicion, and let those more informed than I make the choice.

++ Legate

Good night, everyone.

[Naria]

After getting really really confused over Noggy's and Legate's posts and reading the confusion in the last few; I have decided to give my take on things. I don't think that TM died in vain. I least in my opinion he gave us two people we can trust.

I believe that TM dreamt of Legate on pre-game Night one. He then dreamt of Mac on Night one, then dreamt of Nog Night two. I got a friggin headache trying to figure out the confusion over why Legate was being mentioned as being an ordo. So I went back and looked for the post that would solidify this. And I believe post #117 where he states that "he and Legate", meaning Nogrod and Legate, "were and are innocent". TMalso puts all his trust in both of them. Which if he really wasn't sure about one of them, just going by gut feeling(as some have mentioned), then as a Seer he wouldn't have been so trusting.

I don't know if that made any sense at all(I have a hard time getting my point across in alot of RL situations too), but it has cleared my mind about Legate.

[Brinniel]

On Nerwen. Some comments that caught my attention:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'm not accusing Rikae, just pointing out that we shouldn't be assuming she's not guilty.

This seems very safe. Pointing out to others that we should suspect Rikae, without trying to sound fully suspicious herself.

She voted fifth for Rikae (Nogrod only had 2 at the time) for the reason that there wasn't anyone better. Very safe indeed.

Post 108 she seemingly tries to be helpful analysing Volo the cobbler. Yet, while she may seem helpful in doing this, in reality there wasn't ever much information to take from Volo. She even states this:

This may reflect Volo's beliefs about the identity of the werebalrogs– but as he knew no more than the other miners, what he thought isn't all that relevant.

Why analyse if what he thought wasn't all that relevant? Perhaps she is a balrog just trying to confuse us...

She votes for Gil only for the sake of avoiding a bandwagon. She doesn't really seem to have a strong case against Gil in the first place. All she says is:

No offence, Gil. But you've said some pretty strange things. Maybe it's just your way– I don't know you.

ToDay in Post 178, Nerwen becomes entirely defensive of Legate's accusations saying:

I guess I'm bound to reply to this. Legate, is (wilfully?) distorting my comments.

At the end of the post, she continues:

Legate, with his "weasel words" and twisting of facts, is starting to smell balroggish to me.

Accusing her accuser. Now that's what worries me most about her.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Said I was going to bed, decided I couldn't sleep.

Why does that seem odd to you, Brinn? This is an honest question. Maybe I'm just new-ish at this still, but it seems to me that Nerwen defending herself against Legate is what anyone would do.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Naria

I believe that TM dreamt of Legate on pre-game Night one. He then dreamt of Mac on Night one, then dreamt of Nog Night two.

Wait...that doesn't make any sense. There have only been three possible Nights to dream so far. Night 1 was pre-game basically, if you consider pre-game prior to a Day phase. Then came Night 2. And Night 3, we'll never know who The Might dreamt of. There's no way he could've dreamt of three different people before Day 2.

Originally Posted by Gil

her subtle defense of Mac last day shows to me that she was indeed trying to protect him.

When was I trying to defend Mac? He was one of my top suspects...

Originally Posted by Shasta

Why does that seem odd to you, Brinn?his is an honest question. Maybe I'm just new-ish at this still, but it seems to me that Nerwen defending herself against Legate is what anyone would do.

Mainly because not only does she defend herself, but she turns it around on Legate. Legate accuses her, and suddenly he is suspicious.

It's good to see our enigmas are at least trying be a little more vocal toDay than previous Days, even if it isn't by much. My guess is that it's mostly out of fear of getting mod-killed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

It's good to see our enigmas are at least trying be a little more vocal toDay than previous Days, even if it isn't by much. My guess is that it's mostly out of fear of getting mod-killed.

No, it's that I know what the deadline is now. I believe I've already stated that, and your aspersions make me sad.

[Nerwen]

Here is my list of people I suspect currently:


Legate: For reasons which I've already stated. I'm not sure, though. I could also see him as just being over-enthusiastic (same with the Rikae business).


Kath: The first Day, I interpreted her Nogrod vote as an attempt to widen the field (as I did later with Gil-Galad.) But the next Day she kept on at him. Now, people seem to think that Nogrod is a very sneaky player, and I’m prepared to believe it. The fact is, though, that all Kath’s arguments were just plain weird.

I certainly felt there was something strange going on there. I don’t know, though, maybe it was a grudge match...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

In contrary to Nog, I believe whatever he said about Kath in his last post does not necessarily have to be a reason for his kill. Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not.

Yes... unless that was what finally made up their minds.


Brinniel: Like Legate, she helped make the case against Rikae, and she cast the first vote against her. Yet she, too, apparently sees nothing wrong with pointing at me for having done much the same thing that she did.

Then there was that whole thing with her and Macalaure. I could certainly read that as her making a false, half-hearted attack on him, to cover the fact that she was really going after The Might.

At the moment I can't decide which of them I suspect most. If nothing else comes up to influence my decision, I’ll probably be going for the one with the most votes already, to save my own skin.

For the last time: that is not the same as lynching someone I think is innocent. Do people understand now?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Mainly because not only does she defend herself, but she turns it around on Legate. Legate accuses her, and suddenly he is suspicious.

Oh? So why didn't I attack Mithalwen? Or Naria?

I found the nature of Legate's accusation to be highly suspicious. I have already said why.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh? So why didn't I attack Mithalwen? Or Naria?

Because Legate was the first to make a full analysis of you. He made a pretty strong case against you which is likely to make anyone nervous.

Anyways, why do you feel the need to save your own skin? You may have gathered suspicion (as many other have too), but no one has actually voted for you or said they intend to.

Your defensive behaviour makes me nervous. It bears a resemblence to how Mac acted yesterDay.

[Nerwen]

I disagree that Legate made a full case against me. I think he made a badly flawed case, but one that might convince people who couldn't be bothered re-reading what I had actually said.

Anyways, why do you feel the need to save your own skin?

Because I'm the only one I know for certain is innocent.

Brinniel, I wasn't saying I'd vote purely to save myself, I was saying that if I truly can't decide between you, Legate and Kath, then I will go for the most popular candidate, rather than split the vote.

I most likely won't be around near the deadline, you see, and I need to guard against a late bandwagon against me. For the same reason, I'm defending myself heavily now, in case I'm not there to do it later.

Now let me say it again: I am not making a counter-attack on Legate because he attacked me, but because he said things that have made think he could be a balrog.

Okay?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nerwen. You are not making yourself look any better in my eyes, and it seems to me that you are trying to grasp on straws and twist them with some of your responses to me (and going rightaway from defensive against me to offensive against me). Like this:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the whole I thought she was more likely to be the cobbler than the balrog– or if not, that she was acting as a de facto cobbler, and as such was a liability.

(That suggestion originally came from Legate, by the way.)

Yes, and safe as you always are. Adding words like "by the way" make it seem that you don't rely on this thing, but still you had to say that thing - so that other people notice and may, for example, start to suspect me. That is balrogish.

And similar things.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've re-read the Day 1 posts, and it looks as though a lot of the push to lynch Rikae came from Legate of Amon Lanc himself. Remember his "Rikae's a liar" business?

That's funny, because all I have posted about Rikae before people started to vote for her, was just in two posts. And I returned and started to speak more after she already gathered about 5 or 6 or so votes, one of them from Nerwen herself. And the "liar" business was a joke, as I said, was a joke, was a joke, was a joke, for some reporters with bad ears once again: was a joke (that's not my invention, these are words said by our prime minister several years ago). And I was not the one who first said she can be a cobbler, either - it was mentioned before by sally. In the second post I made before that, I said that we cannot drop in too many conclusions since Rikae did not comment on her behavior till that time.

In general, in her defense Nerwen looks that she's kinda exaggerating, maybe intentionally, like in #182:

At the risk of protesting too much, I'd like to address the “Nerwen lynched Rikae! She must be evil!” argument in a bit more detail.

Now this is clearly twisting what I said. Mainly, as I said, my suspicion does not lay on you lynching Rikae, but on you acting as a whole. And the Rikae-thing is one of the lesser ones. And it does not have anything to do with the fact that you (and obviously only you, as you interpretate my words) lynched Rikae, indeed, there were many and many people doing that. It's the way HOW you did it; what you said when doing it, the commentary you added.
Nerwen's vote for Rikae was the FIFTH for her on Day 1. Thus very, very safe.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Legate is, at the very least, being a bit of a hypocrite.
I'm not accusing him of balrog-hood at this point, even though he's making what I think is a very dubious case against me. He may have, as he says, got carried away– if so, I feel that what set him off was not really anything I did, but the fact that Macalaure stated his belief in my innocence, more than once.

Again, acting this safe-way. "I am not accusing him of balrogishness, even though he seems like he is one, see how nice I am?"

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well yes, that does look bad for me. Except– would Mac have been so vocal in support of a fellow balrog? Remember, no-one was accusing me then. There was no reason for him to defend me. My own opinion is that his comments about me were simply a blind.

But Nerwen, he was not "so vocal". He mentioned you always sideways. On Day 2, when you voted Gil, he did not mention you at all. As I said, he still kept reasonable distance.

Just look how carefully Nerwen plays. Yes, it could be that she is just careful, but I think as a balrog, she could be, yes, honey-tongued, that's the word. And then, after the person whom she voted for is lynched and learned innocent, she says "Oh, poor one, I did not want to kill him."

How to put that. Nerwen's behavior seems like coming from the book "How to act as balrog". That is:
1. Voting for people for whom lots of others may also vote, so her vote gets lost among others.
2. Adding nice comments that make her stay reserved in the cases she builds. If people are not willing to catch on the hook she's putting forward, she can always say "Ah yes, true, I'm not going to vote for that one after all, anyway I already said before that it's not a balrog."

Oh, and concerning the "missing post" thing.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Legate, in his list of my posts, has left out one. He says I only made two posts. I made three.

I did not say you only made two posts, I mentioned only two posts. The other was an analysis of Volo and I believe it had nothing specially important to say to us (or different from what stemmed from the other posts). Yes, I could have mentioned it at least, but I was really tired to go through it better (Volo did not know whether Nerwen is a balrog or not and vice versa, so hardly anything to conclude*) and I was copying and still a bit re-writing the post as I split it into two (as I'm saying in the post before the one where I analyze Nerwen).

*Hey, maybe yes! Now when you mentioned it, Nerwen, thanks for mentioning that. Since this post (#108) was sent at the time Volo was revealed to be a Cobbler, your (if you were a balrog) post analyzing a Cobbler could have differenced yourself from him subconsciously in the minds of the others. You in fact also disqualified Mac as a balrog saying:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Some scenarios to play with:
1. Gil-galad and Macalaure are werebalrogs. Volo was killed for accusing them. Simple– and rather dumb.

And it might have served you that Volo, as you say in your post, "attacked" (your words) Macalaure, but "defended" you. Also a tiny thing, but the ambivalent view is not putting you and Mac together.
As I said, I do not give much value to this one post, but the above states whether and how you could have used it had you been a balrog.

Now, only one technical thing:

Originally Posted by Naria

I believe that TM dreamt of Legate on pre-game Night one. He then dreamt of Mac on Night one, then dreamt of Nog Night two.

A note, Naria, we don't know of whom he dreamt on Night 2 - he died before he could tell us. On Day 2, he had two dreams to work with.

I am going to look at other people than Nerwen now. But I guess I said what I wanted about her and you can make a picture out of that.

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod - I do understand why you suspect my vote for Gil but please bear in mind my entirely genuine problems that day. HAving had the chance to look back (obviously with the benefit of hindsight, I can see why Mac seemed suspicious but on my very superficial reading I didn't. I suspect Gil rather less now due to his fairly early vote for Mac but he had been more involved and when that happens it suggest he is not an ordo.

I realise I may have seemed a bit flaky but that is not due to the stress of an in game role. Obviously look at my posts but ... remember the context.

[Nerwen]

Legate, so you've largely abandoned your previous case against me, is that what you're saying? And made up a new one more-or-less from scratch?

First, let's look at your peripheral arguments:

Originally Posted by Nerwen
"On the whole I thought she was more likely to be the cobbler than the balrog– or if not, that she was acting as a de facto cobbler, and as such was a liability.

(That suggestion originally came from Legate, by the way.)"

Yes, and safe as you always are. Adding words like "by the way" make it seem that you don't rely on this thing, but still you had to say that thing - so that other people notice and may, for example, start to suspect me. That is balrogish.

I know Sally started the cobbler thing. You were the one who suggested that Rikae was a liability whatever she was. That's what I was referring to– I mentioned it because Naria thought I'd come up with it. I'm sorry if I was unclear.

You in fact also disqualified Mac as a balrog saying:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Some scenarios to play with:
1. Gil-galad and Macalaure are werebalrogs. Volo was killed for accusing them. Simple– and rather dumb.

No, I didn't. I said it would be a dumb thing to do, not that nobody would do it. I wanted people to look at all the possibilties. I didn't want to point too strongly at Mac and/or Gil because firstly, I wasn't sure, and secondly, I didn't want to make myself an obvious target if one of them was guilty.

Your new main argument is apparently that because I play carefully, and am wary of accusing people outright, you think I'm a balrog.

How about an ordo who is afraid of lynching the wrong person, being wrongly lynched, or being killed in the night?

Take this, for example:

Legate is, at the very least, being a bit of a hypocrite.
I'm not accusing him of balrog-hood at this point, even though he's making what I think is a very dubious case against me. He may have, as he says, got carried away– if so, I feel that what set him off was not really anything I did, but the fact that Macalaure stated his belief in my innocence, more than once.

Again, acting this safe-way. "I am not accusing him of balrogishness, even though he seems like he is one, see how nice I am?"

No, I was actually saying I wasn't sure about you, and that there could be an innocent explanation– which I put forward– so I wasn't ready to accuse you. Really. That's all.

Legate, if you're not guilty, please think about what I'm saying. We can't afford to lose more innocent miners.

[Mithalwen]

Just a remider of the situation. There are ten of us left.

Two balrogs
A logical hunter
A ranger
6 ordos

but at least one (probably 2 ) of whom are lovers whose priority is each other not their team (presumably - though only they and lommy know for certain).

I would guess that the remaining lovers are balrog/ ordo since Volo was a cobbler ... Oh Eru ... have we considered that ? If the lovers know each other's identity then Volo knew perhaps of one ordo and a balrog unlike a normal cobbler who has to guess.

As long as the hunter doens't go mad and isn't a lover things aren't too bad.

It seems that we have at least 1 known ordo assuming Mac dreamed of Noggin or Legate - but it doesn't stop them being an ordinary lover

[Nerwen]

How does this love-triangle thing (if that's what it is) work, anyway?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Legate, so you've largely abandoned your previous case against me, is that what you're saying? And made up a new one more-or-less from scratch?

No. I am stating other things that stem from what you said in your posts after my last one. They are in continuity to how you acted before - playing "safe" is what I pointed out at your posts even in the first analysis I made about you.

I know Sally started the cobbler thing. You were the one who suggested that Rikae was a liability whatever she was. That's what I was referring to– I mentioned it because Naria thought I'd come up with it. I'm sorry if I was unclear.

But that thing I suggested at the very end of Day 1, after many people, including you, already voted for her. It was about quarter an hour before the DL.

Look, I have somewhat calmed down and try to look at it from restrained point of view, but things like this do not make you seem better - it seems as if you are trying to twist my words.

How about an ordo who is afraid of lynching the wrong person, being wrongly lynched, or being killed in the night?

Of course you could be that, but what you do is very typical-wolfy, and combined with how Mac acted towards you, you seem suspicious. That is, in short, the main suspicion I have against you.

Legate, if you're not guilty, please think about what I'm saying. We can't afford to lose more innocent miners.

I definitely agree. And I'm trying to look at you from cold point of view. But if you continue with what looks to me as twisting my words, you are not going to help that.