WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Nogrod]

I'm bent to to believing that the balrogs thought The Might had dreamt of Mac.

That means he couldn't have dreamt of both me and Legate. So he trusted one of us and dreamt of another. I'm not too happy to speculate with this any more as we should leave the balrogs some hard decisions to the next Night.

What I kind of wonder right now is whether his last point about Kath was the thing that brought the alarm bells ringing with the balrogs or was his confidence on Mac enough? I wouldn't be surprised if Kath indeed is a balrog and they just had to eliminate him because they feared that he was getting too effective.

I need to think this a bit more while I pack my things for an early wake up tomorrow. I will vote very early (around 3-4AM GMT) before I leave for the airport. But I'll try to make a few posts before I go to sleep.

EDIT: X'd with Legate, again...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now, what did TM leave us here as a legacy? Probably nothing to point us towards a balrog, as it seems that the only balrog he could have eventually dreamt of was lynched. But even then I believe his vote for Mac was influenced by his trust put in Nogrod.

In contrary to Nog, I believe whatever he said about Kath in his last post does not necessarily have to be a reason for his kill. Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not. So I'd be careful before making conclusions like this.

I have to think. Will be back soon.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

In contrary to Nog, I believe whatever he said about Kath in his last post does not necessarily have to be a reason for his kill. Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not.

I didn't say she necessarily is a balrog...

Originally Posted by me

I kind of wonder right now is whether his last point about Kath was the thing that brought the alarm bells ringing with the balrogs or was his confidence on Mac enough?

Originally Posted by Legate

So I'd be careful before making conclusions like this.

I am most careful. Just check my wording above. Now don't make me suspect you on this moment Legate. That's the last thing I need in the RL packing I'm in.

EDIT: X'd with Kath this time

[Nogrod]

Gah, forgot the mid-part of what I meant to say...

Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not.

Darn you balrog you or then you're just somehow losing your grip here! So the balrogs "learned" that The Might was the seer? Right? Now how do you know that my friend? You said something like "we should be careful before making conclusions".

Maybe it was because it was no conclusion but personal knowledge you just slipped away there?

Okay. I'm not sure I wish to press on this.

But you really make me wonder Legate. You do, even if I'm inclined to think you innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh dear. To have lost the seer is quite a blow. No doubt the balrogs are feeling quite proud of themselves for their slaying last night.

I have to be to work in a bit, but I'll be back in a few hours and will post when I get back for the evening. Definitely a lot to consider in Might's posts. *wanders off mumbling and contemplating*

[Mithalwen]

I am not sure if this is the hint that the balrogs picked up on or whether it was his change of opinion on Nogrod. But the Might Said "See now" in his first post and uses "look" a lot ... this isn't as mad as it sounds. Some people are visually orientated, others aural or emotional and their language can reflect this - an aurally orientated person might have said "It sounds as if.".. an emotional one " I feel that"
... but it could have been an indication that he was the seer.

My suspicions of Nogrod has lessened - I get the feeling that the wolves were untroubled about who died save perhaps Macalaure who might have personal reasons for not voting Rikae. It was certainly quiet save for those who we know about or who have possibly been cleared (Noggin or legate..)
but I am uneasy about Brinniel because of her reluctance to vote last night..... torn perhaps between which would look worse to jump on the bandwaggon and seal a fellow fiends fate or not to vote?

I also am beginning to suspect Nerwen ... Macalaure is careful to mention her in his Day one summaries a couple of times, and she makes a big deal of being fair to Rikae, yesterday she attempts to widen the field from Macalaure ...

Could be a flying under the radar wolf?

Not terribly certain of any of this but about ready to go for a while ... I won't have ot vote before tomorrow lunchtime at the earliest so I hope there is some reaction to read.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, I'm here, again.

Will someone please tell me how long before execution, so I don't mess up and not vote (again)?

[Kath]

I think you have 21 and a half hours until the deadline, so call it 21 hours to make sure you're back in time.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I didn't say she necessarily is a balrog...

I am most careful. Just check my wording above. Now don't make me suspect you on this moment Legate. That's the last thing I need in the RL packing I'm in.

I didn't say you say she necessarily is a balrog. I was speaking generally, not about you - that we should be careful with quick conclusions. What you said is a matter that's good to be considered, but in no way apparent.

Pack up quick, so that you can fully focus on posting and we avoid things like that, that's really the last we need.

EDIT: after seeing Nog's second post. No, I am not saying anything anymore. Nog, really, either the packing is making you nervous or you are a balrog after all. Let's stop it! That's really the last thing we need.

Anyway, I probably said all I had in mind. I'm waiting for others to post. Till then, bye.

[Nogrod]

Well, whatever we have talked this far it is my main concern toDay - with the lack of time I have with this - that we are fast losing vocal players and that makes the game boring and easier for the balrogs.

Originally Posted by Kath

I'd rather a boring game than a higher chance of being slaughtered in my sleep.

I do disagree wholeheartedly. I'd rather lose a magnificient game than win a lousy one...

Okay, I saw your edit Legate. Enough for me too. But in case I'm dead soon and the balrogs somehow leave you alive Night after Night, I wish to make it known that some people should look at you and Kath as well. I started this Day pretty confident you were innocent, even dreamt of (thence it would have been N1 Legate, N2 Mac - that was the scheme I myself believed to be true untill you posted...), but there's the uncertainty with The Might's total turn around with me on the beginning of Day2 (and it's perfectly possible that he dreamt of Mac the first Night but didn't dare to raise the issue as not to reveal himself - there was little to actually say against Mac on Day1 even if you and I noted there was something wrong in him but we couldn't argue about it either).

But back to the issue.

We need the talkers now with all these absences both experienced and foretold by people.

And it's also statistically quite believable that we have at least one - if not two - balrogs among the quieter folk.

Let's not kill this game by leaving alive only people who post once a Day - if even that much.

And we have other leads as well.

Mith said she was uneasy about Brinn. That I think is a case in point. Not the least because Mac made something of a show with his "attack" on Brinn in the end of yesterDay. I think there was no actual threat Brinn would have been lynched at that time of the Day - and if she was Mac would then be alive himself. So that could a nice balrog-on-balrog thing?

Okay. I need a break to finish my packing. I'll drop in before I go to sleep.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right. I plan to use the time I have toDay (resp. tomorrow my time) to make some analyses of all people, or at least those that are more suspicious to me. Only from what I gathered by skimming through the threads, I:

- am trusting Nogrod now
- believe Gil innocent
- definitely have to take a look at Brinn
- will look at Sally, but I believe there is very little to collect
- will look at Kath
- will look at Mith
and finally, believe Nerwen could be a balrog.

Shasta&Naria seem more dead than alive, so I'm skipping them completely - it's no use. Otherwise, I hope I have not missed anyone.

Now, why Nerwen. I was going through Mac's posts and compared some things. I will send what I found in the following, separate post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

What follows is an analysis of Nerwen's posts, along with comparing some of them to Mac's and why I think she could be a balrog.

Nerwen's posts:

#23
Nerwen starts with "Greeting, fellow miners." and such stuff in a way that reminds me of "Hello, I am one of you, I be your friend." Then she says - no, I have to quote it all:

In principle, I'm inclined to suspect the "quiet ones". After all, if I were a werebalrog I'd be lying low at this point, waiting for somebody to accuse an innocent miner so I could jump on the bandwagon.

First sentence: saying "my tactics is going to be that I suspect people who do this and this" is a very good baddie-program, because one can hide behind this. Second sentence: this is rightaway saying in the same paragraph "If I were a werebalrog, I'd be doing something else than I'm doing now", so logical conclusion - I am not a balrog. Now that's a nice cover.

Then she continues a little bit safer and says that of course silence is not incriminating yet, because not everyone could post.

Then she says Rikae maybe diverts suspicion by this, which may be very nicely using the vote Rikae made on herself to emphasise the fact that there can be sinister intentions behind Rikae's self-vote.

Other posts are not much better.

#33
In response to Mac - she speaks about Rikae (meaning she does not know her style of playing):

Well, I don't really know any of you people yet, but I agree that it doesn't make sense for the cobbler to try and get lynched at this point.

She speaks about Rikae in particular, but that's also saying "I don't know you people, and especially I don't know you, Mac, to whom I am responding". That's a way for a balrog to cover that she knows her accomplice from Night talks.

#53
Votes Rikae, but in a way of proving how honest she is:

Look, Rikae, I wasn't going to do anything until you'd had a chance to speak for yourself.

Then she makes another safe-comment:

I can't say that you or anyone else has done anything that definitely says "balrog" to me– but time is running out. In the absence of a better candidate– [votes Rikae]

Saying that you do something because you don't have better candidate gives you the chance to vote without explaining your motives, sooner or later. You just say you didn't know. So if anything, this could be a good post for a balrog.

Day 2:
#103
Explains the swiftness of her vote the Day before. Nothing much to be said about that.

# 127
That's her last post and also her vote for Day 2.

Unfortunately, we seem to have another bandwagon starting up. Since there have been three votes to lynch Macalaure already, I propose [votes Gil-Galad]

Now this is mainly what made me think she is the balrog. Because Mac seemed to gather votes far too fast, she tried to save him by starting another bandwagon. Or whatever, only that she would not vote for him, because there were many votes to come still and voting Mac would 1) be safe bandwagoning from her, 2) will heighten the danger that was upon her comrade.

And what said Mac on Nerwen?
#31
Only a short sentence sideways:

Good points about her [Rikae] by Nerwen and Legate.

Day 2:
#116
Says he trusts her (names her among the few, that being Kath, Mith and Nerwen).

#137
Does not mention Nerwen, but speaks about his situation. I mention it because it was after Nerwen voted for Gil. It was Mac 3, Gil 1 at that time.

Gil is the only co-bandwaggon so far. Even though he voted me, he's also one of the few who's suspicious of Brin, so I would only vote him if I really had to save myself.

All in all: I think Mac was very careful towards Nerwen. They mention each other in positive sense, but maintaining some sort of distance - enough distance not to be too personal towards each other.

All right. So that's it. I'm saying rightaway that I got sort of carried off when I was writing this and that I did that with a zeal. But the zeal was provoked by the finds I made and that I did when I was still absolutely calm and undecided. Simply, this post is looking at everything from the most suspecting angle. What makes me wary is the fact that I once made a mistake, similar analysis with similar zeal and it ended wrong. But now it seems quite probable to me that Nerwen could be a balrog. You must judge for yourselves. Now, I am a little tired, so I'm going to sleep. Will be back in about 8 or 10 hours.

Oh, and, this thing also makes me think better of Mith, who mentioned Nerwen as suspicious on her own account (#168). If Nerwen shows to be guilty, then I'd say Mith is leaning to innocence.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I'm saying rightaway that I got sort of carried off when I was writing this and that I did that with a zeal. But the zeal was provoked by the finds I made and that I did when I was still absolutely calm and undecided. Simply, this post is looking at everything from the most suspecting angle.

That's the way it works... one gets pretty confident one is right.

I find this a hard nut to crack. Nerwen could be read as innocent and a caring one (she indeed started a alternate-voting pattern which we needed after only Mac had gathered votes). But the difference between voting Rikae as "there were no better candidates" to her quite proactive idea of starting a new lynchline could be interpreted quite balroggishly.

Also your points on how Mac traeted her do raise suspicions.

Mith's easy leap for Gil I do find a bit odd as well.

Also it's interesting why Mac chose The Might instead of Gil... Looks like at least he thought he knew... or thought he knew

Okay. I need a few hours of sleep.

Please post people!

I'm pretty lost right now as I don't have time to look back with care people like Shasta or Sally.

[Kath]

Losing the Seer, well that sucks. And the candidates for dreaming are Legate, Mac and Nog.

I thought at first it was possible that The Might dreamt of Nog on Night 1 and found him to be evil, but the turnaround on Day 2 puts that theory down and, depressingly for me, means I might have to let go my suspicion of Noggie, as such a switch does look like The Might dreamt of him and found him innocent. Though, it's good really as an innocent Noggie is an asset to the village. And then Day 2 it looks like he dreamt of Legate and found him innocent as well. I don't think he dreamt of Mac, I think he just found him suspicious. If you look at his post where he explains his vote he states that he is happy with being suspicious of Mac because Legate and Noggie are. It looks like he's decided to side with those he knows to be innocent.

Oh and something from yesterDay. Brinn, I'm sorry that you felt I was 'going on' at Nogrod but I would rather be accused of that than of letting a balrog walk the village unmolested. I've decided I don't want to do analyses this game, so I'm trying something else but still trying to helpful. My apologies if it isn't coming across that way.