WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Brinniel]

Some analysis:

Well, it seems almost everyone has spoken toDay. We still haven't heard from Lhuna or Mith. Mith I'm still confused about. I'm not too worried about her for the time being, mainly because I'm sure we'll hear more from her later. Lhuna, with her single post, I have absolutely no idea. Hopefully, she'll still show up, or she may be mod-fired (it's after two Days of no voting, right?).

It's good to see that Naria's shown up. That makes zero no-shows for this game (a first in awhile, I think). Anyways, I've never played with Naria before, so I don't know her style. But nothing jumps out at me for the time being.

Gil has this style of being very up front about his suspicions. He doesn't beat around the bush, but just says what he thinks, if that makes any sense. It can be a dangerous style to play as it can turn many heads. Yet, I don't think it's balrog behaviour...he's just way too obvious. I don't want to completely eliminate the possibilty that Gil may be a balrog and let him fall under my radar, but for now I just don't find him suspicious.

Shasta has said very little of substance except for a few side comments. Not enough to know anything.

So far Nerwen's word and tone seem to be sincere. I still find her most likely innocent.

Sally's use of the word "hairy" makes me wonder: Do balrogs have hair? Anyways, I don't like how she's made up a suspicion list, but has not explained the reasons behind them. Now, I understand it mainly has to do with time constraints, so I hope she manages to find time to return and explain her suspicions before the Day is over.

Kath is honestly still a big question mark for me. Her arguments make sense and I don't see anything fishy about them. I just don't know whether they are sincere, or simply one big bluff. A Were-Kath has fooled me before; I won't make the mistake of letting her slide under my radar.

As I briefly mentioned earlier, Nogrod makes some good points against Mac. But what worries me about him is the same thing Legate mentioned:

But there is one but and that is that he can be using the Voice of Saruman-tactics, even on me, trying to rally masses to his cause. For example, picking Mac as suspect when he knows I have suspected him, and making a crusade against him.

Nogrod is always quite persuasive in his arguments, innocent or not. As a baddie, finding allies is essential and so far it seems that Nogrod is managing to do just that. Then again, persuading others to lynch an innocent Mac could be quite dangerous if he's a balrog...unless he's got something else up his sleeve.

Coming to Legate, I find his posts to be helpful and genuine. Perhaps he is a very cunning balrog, but right now I'm inclined to think him innocent.

There's something fishy to me about The Might. I don't like how he's so quick to bandwagon with Nogrod about Mac. His last post almost seemed like he was looking for his own excuse to accuse Mac and it just felt fabricated. Maybe it's because I don't know his playing style, but we cannot disregard newbies just for the sake that they are new. Otherwise, we might let a possible balrog slide by.

ToDay, Mac's posts are all overly defensive and he seems to feel the need to explain or clarify anything that has been questioned. He just doesn't feel like the typical Mac, and I find that worrisome.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, not much time, but on those who posted since I was last here:

Brinniel - well, not that I would be particularly settled with her, but she is not particularly suspicious. Currently, I have nothing much to say on her.

Kath - cannot say that I'd be settled, but after her last post I feel somewhat better about her. That does not mean dropping her from my suspicions rightaway, but waiting how she acts in the future.

Sally - Again, not helping much in my decisions. But I'm leaving her now be, there is still enough people to focus on, she can wait till later.

Nerwen - I don't know. My opinion on her from the second part of yesterDay were not very clear. They are not still.

Shasta - looks genuine. But that's about all I can say now.

Gil - confusing as always. Like this:

and by attacking two people at the same time, you know that is dangerous in any WW game and it will get you on many suspicion lists...

I believe not, Gil. It's quite normal having more than one high suspect, because there are also more than one balrog. Having always only one suspect could mean that one is a balrog picking always one innocent who seems that he'd be a good scrapegoat.
And

Brinniel is acting quiet and collected today... which i say is a rather good move for a wolf and a civilian so i am rather more calm about her...

Emphasise mine. What's that supposed to mean?

OOC: Oh, and I just read the bottom of your post, Gil. I understand what you mean and will heed it. But also note that in this post, I am saying you are confusING, not confused (anyway, how could anyone know that you are confused when he's not you? Unless you say "I am confused" we have no reason to say you are).

Naria! Wonderful, you are here. Good points, though nothing that would exactly help to form an opinion on her. Of course - from one post...

And one technical thing:

Originally Posted by Brinn

Hopefully, she'll still show up, or she may be mod-fired (it's after two Days of no voting, right?).

I am not sure if this rule applies in this particular game. Was it stated on the admin thread or at the beginning of this one? I believe not.

Okay, so, I'll check back in let's say two hours and probably vote. Probably I'll go for someone of those whom I mentioned in my previous post, though it's not necessary. Well, who knows, let's see.

[Nerwen]

Now that we know Volo was in truth the cobbler, a.k.a. Maeglin, what, if anything, can we learn from his actions and his terrible fate?

Here's a summary:

First post: Notes he won’t be able to post until the end of the Day.

Second post: Defends Nogrod against Macalaure, then is himself mildly critical of some of Nogrod's early comments. Agrees with Nogrod that Rikae cannot be gifted. States his belief that she may be the cobbler, but is probably an ordo.

Third post: Answering Macalaure's charges, claims that his reason for saying Rikae could not be gifted was, not to imply she was disposable, but to put the balrogs off her trail. Expresses suspicion of Macalaure. Qualifies this by saying that "last time I did this, I was wrong". Says he has a "gut feeling" that I (Nerwen) am innocent.

Fourth post: Points out that Gil-galad's remarks about Brinniel are silly and possibly incriminating. Defends Kath against Nogrod.

Fifth post: Casts the fourth vote for Rikae, already the clear favourite.


On the whole, Volo/Maeglin seems to have been playing it pretty safe, mostly chiming in with other people's suggestions or stating the obvious. For what it's worth, though, here's the score:

Attacked:
Macalaure
Gil-galad
Rikae

Defended:
Nogrod
Rikae (again)
Nerwen
Brinniel
Kath.

This may reflect Volo's beliefs about the identity of the werebalrogs– but as he knew no more than the other miners, what he thought isn't all that relevant. (Yes, I am bound to say that– but it's also true.)

The question: did he do something that signed his death-warrant? *dramatic chords*

Some scenarios to play with:

1. Gil-galad and Macalaure are werebalrogs. Volo was killed for accusing them. Simple– and rather dumb.

2. Ditto, but Volo was killed as a double-bluff.

3. They're innocent. The real balrogs killed Volo to cast suspicion on them.

4. One of them is a balrog, the other isn't. Any of the above possibilities could apply.

5. Volo was killed because he defended someone the balrogs plan to have lynched.

6. Volo was picked more-or-less at random. I'm afraid that's just as likely a scenario as any.

That's all I have time for now.