WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Macalaure]

Well, as I said, I wrote it while skim-reading. And at the end of it, Gil and you ended up being at the top of the list.

[The Might]

After these posts Macalaure seems pretty suspicious.
First he posts, saying that he must quickly leave and has no time to comment on anything else, so it looks to me as if he was kind of in a hurry.
Still, he finds time 5 minutes later to post again in a quite defensive trying to explain why Nogrod and Gil ended up as those he suspected most.

Again, I hope those that have posted less will find time to do that till tomorrow.
See you tomorrow!

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It could be added that his first post toDay doesn't look too sincere either. It's not a problem if someone sees he needs to defend himself from suspicion. But to underline the fact that one's post is a defencive one looks a bit overdoing it. I mean a baddie thinks about these things all the time and wonders how his posts look in the eyes of the others. So they become easily oversensitive and feel the need to explain and back themselves up.

Indeed. Any baddie who feels they've been put under a hot fire can become overly defensive. And often, such behaviour only digs them a deeper hole. Isn't that what happened in the last game with Lommy?

Anyways, Nogrod does seem to be making a lot more sense toDay, but I'm still not entirely sure if I should trust him.

Originally Posted by Might

After these posts Macalaure seems pretty suspicious.
First he posts, saying that he must quickly leave and has no time to comment on anything else, so it looks to me as if he was kind of in a hurry.
Still, he finds time 5 minutes later to post again in a quite defensive trying to explain why Nogrod and Gil ended up as those he suspected most.

I honestly don't understand why you find his timing to be suspicious. I got the impression his comment, "I don't have time to look at others closer right now" meant he didn't have time to make any lengthy analyses. Mac obviously cross-posted and had a few spare moments to skim Nogrod's post before leaving....I know I like to read any cross posts before I go, otherwise I might forget about them when I come back.

To answer Nogrod's question:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Says I’m her second suspicion because of the early posts but that she has not enough evidence to back it up. Now I wondered this back up pointing to the “early posts” already earlier: if she wasn’t so sure any more / if there was no later suspicion so why did she boost the choice that was emerging thanks to Kath (whose points I still find the most fabricated in here)?

Your earlier posts consisted mainly of banter, and you said a lot without providing any useful information and I found that somewhat suspicious. There wasn't enough evidence to back that up because none of your later posts screamed guilty. It doesn't change the fact that I was still uncomfortable from your first posts. But I won't vote for someone based only off banter and nothing else.
Anyways, I hope that clears things up.

Ugh, I'm afraid I've been crazy exhausted lately with schoolwork. Let me go clear my head with a nap and I'll come back with more thoughts later.

[Kath]

Well, I'm back, and I suppose I should answer Noggie since he does seem intent on continuing this suspicion of me.

I think the main point is that I came up with fabricated suspicion against him. I don't really know how to answer that, except to say that I didn't. It was Day 1, I had about an hour free to post and not that many posts to base any suspicion. I wanted to make a useful vote rather than just flinging any old name into the hat so I did try to put reasoning behind it.

Ah! I've just found a numbered post. Now I can answer in order.

1) Posting a lot ~ yes, you had. Compared to everyone else at least. I think only Mith was close on you there. It wasn't a joke, because while you have seen baddies hide in silent villages, I have seen them hide in plain and very noisy sight. There is absolutely no reason why a balrog wouldn't be the most talkative person in a village. Also, your assertion that killing off the loudmouths lead to a silent village is true, but I'd rather a silent village with only one baddie left to find than a noisy village with all the baddies left. I'd rather a boring game than a higher chance of being slaughtered in my sleep.

2) Posting a lot while saying nothing ~ you have often called for substance in posts, especially on Day 1, so when I find you not doing that yourself it startles me. It may well just be a difference in opinion, you think they're full of substance, I don't. Since then you have written a lot of helpful and substantive posts, so this claim at least I will relinquish.

3) Seeing balrogs everywhere ~ it wasn't the fact that you were, it was the style you were doing it in. It was too blase for you. I don't know whether you're trying to change your playing style or something you're just really rubbing me up the wrong way so far. Er, which is also the answer to point 4. No, it's not an argument, unless one can make an argument which says you're behaving differently therefore you may have a different role.

Look, basically, to me my arguments aren't sham. They were what I came up with after reading the posts that had been written so far. My only motive is to find out whether you are, as per my suspicion, a balrog. I don't know why you're jumping on this quite so fiercely considering that I hardly started a bandwagon for you and the suspicion wasn't even that intense, it was just the most intense of any of the suspicions I'd gathered.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay. I didn't have time to go through yesterDay's posts concerning Volo much after all, because in the last two hours some important things just popped at me and I did not have time to do anything else. And I'm going to sleep soon, so nothing much from me now, and what more, I'm not so sure with my toDay's participation at large. What I can say for certain already is that I'm not going to be here for the whole second half of the Day, including DL And this time it's definite, so I am voting probably in the morning.

Now, what I would like to solve primarily:

In reply to Mac:

Originally Posted by Mac

Ok, the reverse psychology part I now understand. But I still don't get what you're talking about. Neither Volo nor I started it, but Nogrod. The fact that Volo was the cobbler and wanted to confuse us makes this statement look a little bad.

Oh, sorry, I forgot mentioning Nogrod. But I did not focus on Nogrod or Volo back then, but you, mainly. What I posted was referring to the moment when I was pondering (while reading the thread) whether Rikae could not be, let's say, a Seer disguising herself. I did not think it's like that, but that was the second possibility (the 10% after the 80% that she's a cobbler).
What you said seemed to me as if you are not speaking about Rikae much, but trying to, in a wolfy-way make it seem that Volo and/or Nogrod are suspicious:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Then there's Nogrod and Volo. I don't like the argument that Rikae is in no way gifted. I don't think we can be entirely sure. The argument also has an aftertaste of "She's not gifted, so when in doubt, we can lynch her without much of a loss." Even though they both denies this, it's in there nevertheless.

The second part of it. To me it seemed like slight way of rising suspicion against them.

Kath. Going through her post of yesterday, it still gives me that feeling of "you are all bad". But if she wrote it in a hurry, it's explainable that she could not write too much. Her post toDay is not helping much to get a clearer picture on her, so hopefully she posts during (my) night so that I have more info in the morning. One thing that puzzles me on her yesterDay's post is this:

Originally Posted by Kath

[Legate] is being a bit pedantic about Rikae though. 9 games is very close to 10. Maybe there was a miscount, or he missed a junior game. It just feels like suspecting for the sake of suspecting.

I did not speak about it yesterDay, so if anyone is still interested in that, with the lynches of Rikae I was mistaken. But she actually was almost lynched, but people retracted and she was killed during the night. But I was a Wolf back then so what mattered to me was that she's dead, you see Anyway, and this is what I wanted to say, I don't see how this should concern us now, and my words about Rikae lying was only a joke. Otherwise I was meditating about her being a cobbler or not. Now I don't see why would Kath mention exactly this, unless she is joking as well, but again, if she is, then why she uses so much space for it in her only post? So if anything, this looks suspicious, or strange at least.

The Might. From his posts, I have the worse and worse feeling. He appears, says to the person who posted before him "I agree with you" and sometimes, as we have seen yesterDay, votes. BUT, given the pattern how he does that, I'm getting the feeling that despite it looks suspicious, it's his style of playing. Or, if not anything better, then at least his adopted style of playing as a balrog. This being his first game we have nothing to compare this with, but I'm willing to leave him without suspecting for now (though I am watching him. In the first game I played, I was a Werewolf and made it to the end partially, I believe, because I was a newbie).

Sally is making me nervous toDay. She was making me feel somewhat unsettled yesterDay, but her funny chatter about hairy balrogs is sort of disturbing. "What's with the haircut?" Too much hair, too little substance, I'd say. But again, as she says she's not going to be around much toDay, I'm putting her away for now.

Mr. Nogrod is actually quite fine, helpful, nice, polite (he provides info even about himself). He's known to do that, but. But there is one but and that is that he can be using the Voice of Saruman-tactics, even on me, trying to rally masses to his cause. For example, picking Mac as suspect when he knows I have suspected him, and making a crusade against him. There is the question what would a Nogrog (or Balrod?) do if Mac was lynched and turned innocent. Of course, there would be the possiblity that they are both balrogs and Mac would be making a sacrifice for the greater good. But to be honest, I believe this is not probable. If you look at them, it would take much effort to come up with a plan leading to the situation in which we are now. Not that I am underrating them, but it just does not seem probable. Even though the Mods we currently have are capable of making a balrog team Nogrod-Mac-someone.

Others have not spoken this far. I'm really leaving now. I am very curious about the other people's reaction on toDay, but that remains to be seen. Good whatever to you.

[Nogrod]

Brinniel:

#15 Says she’d hoped for more talk and will wait if someone talks... Everyone must be watched closely.

#20 After I had asked her why did she just complain that no one was saying anything rather than saying something herself she says she had made “serious comments”. Says that baddies might hide within bantering – which is true of course. Defends herself once again by saying she had actually “said something” – which can be questioned indeed. I find this post most self-defencive taking into account that there were no open suspicions on her at that moment.

#22 Questions Rikae’s self-vote. Says going suicidal doesn’t help us finding the balrogs. This is most true but also something a balrog would love to say given the opportunity... Oh, how it looks good!

#29 Makes analysis / tells us what she thinks of the people. Basically she thinks that she has no opinion or that people have said nothing of substance. Makes a good analysis on Rikae’s possible roles and says of me that “at this point it is hard to say”.

#42 Votes for Rikae and disagrees with Mac in a way that leaves me quite baffled. Were they talking about the same thing in the first place? Says I’m her second suspicion because of the early posts but that she has not enough evidence to back it up. Now I wondered this back up pointing to the “early posts” already earlier: if she wasn’t so sure any more / if there was no later suspicion so why did she boost the choice that was emerging thanks to Kath (whose points I still find the most fabricated in here)? So I was a bit disturbed how she was ready to kind of ensure the choices we would pick to lynch would be Rikae and myself. I know now that we both are innocents (and if she is a balrog she would know it too) and that kind of choice would be very practical and happy one for the baddies indeed.

So there are things in here that make me a bit worried about Brinn but I have to say that I’m not so sure about this as I was while I skimmed the posts making the vote-analysis. Darn this is hard... and fun!

A short comment to follow and then I need to sleep.

[Nogrod]

So just for the (RL)night a short list clarifying what I have been trying to say and also of what I have left unsaid as there's a limit to my time too. (Just believe it! )

I find suspicious:
Kath
Macalaure

I find somewhat suspicious:
Brinniel

I'm pretty much undecided as I haven't thought of them close enough (my own fault that needs correcting):
The Might
Nerwen
Sally

We don't have enough to say this or that - which will soon become a damning feature if it continues:
Lhuna
Shasta

Will solve by itself if she does not appear:
Naria

I'm leaning more towards innocence at the moment:
Gil
Mith - I've rethought yesterDay evening's last moments
Legate