WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Nogrod]

Let's just organise ourselves people.

The innocent miners to the left and do-gooders should blend in I suppose... and the baddies who are behind all this havoc to the right. Okay?

Now let's see the persons remaining at the right side and lynch them once and for all...

Well no one that is.

C'mon, be fair guys! What's all this hide and seek stuff about?

And how about if this one with wet hair being kind enough to explain?

[Mithalwen]

Care to say which side you are standing on? Nogrod? It would solve my dilemmas as to whether I should summarily vote for Kath for being inscrutable or Gil-galad for being confusing... However I shall not be hasty. But actually reading posts might force me to abandon age long prejudices.... Anyone else talking?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And how about if this one with wet hair being kind enough to explain?

Hey, but that's you, sir! What are you going to say on that?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

C'mon, be fair guys! What's all this hide and seek stuff about?

Definitely! But are these shadow-and-flame guys fair enough to reveal to us?

But if they are not as fair guys, I wouldn't be as sure whether the actual villain would have already dried his head, so...

I only hope there is no xyzzy among us...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I only hope there is no xyzzy among us...

Seconded indeed...

Originally Posted by Mith

Care to say which side you are standing on? Nogrod? It would solve my dilemmas

That's easy... I'm a fool-proof pure basic innocent. But that's what I would say whatever my role was. Although in this case it's true... which I would also say in any possible role. But as I said, I'm an innocent, which fact I would admit in any...

And I'm afraid you Legate have it right. They won't reveal themselves so we just have to pick them out one by one with inquiry and deduction. Hopefully with some nice schemes and tactical manouvers as well. But all that in turn is impossible if there is no wider partaking in the discussions.

So if you Balrogs won't co-operate with lining yourselves against the wall to be executed would you then please open your mouths?

And surely everyone else is encouraged to open their mouths as well...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Seconded indeed...

That's easy... I'm a fool-proof pure basic innocent.

Are you sure... if you think anything is fool-proof you are liable to find that someone has found a new class of fool.....

I suspect I may have to wait for tomorrow for much of significance..... due to the strange time zone issues that affect this part of Gondolin...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if you Balrogs won't co-operate with lining yourselves against the wall to be executed would you then please open your mouths?

And surely everyone else is encouraged to open their mouths as well...

Which reminds me, unfortunately, the first Day is going to be a little bit tight for me, because it may happen that I am not going to be around here at the deadline so I'd be bound to vote somewhat early (wasn't it also Tuesday the first day in Gil's game?). And that would be in the morning, which is about 10 hours from now, so, not much fun. So, this is one more reason for everyone to talk, so that I may choose my vote based on some real evidence and not just randomly.

[Mithalwen]

However, it should be borne in mind that many peole are reluctant to vote for someone wh hasn't said much, "who hasn't been around to defend themselves" etc...and the wolves.... (given that it is unlikely but not impossible that all wolves are first time players) will be aware of that. Obviously deliberate non participation is a dangerous strategy but this is a small group to face 3 werebeasts and a cobbler even with a ranger about.

The innocents can't afford to be too noble .... no one can be discounted, not the quiet, not the noisy, and certainly not the pseudo helpful not the flyers-under- the radar....

but if noone else is around I shall go to my rest...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mith

but if noone else is around I shall go to my rest...

Well I'm around but there seems to be quite a little to pay heed to. I'll try anyhow. Just a moment.

[Nogrod]

As this seems to be quite sticky let's throw some balls around for catching... We should not play this game the way we have done this far but in a way actually trying to do something.

What has happened then so far?

Nogrod: Joking first post, tries to assert himself as the MC around here, at least in-characterwise. Very fishy indeed. And calls for the wet-haired one to explain her/his status? Now he must be up to something evil. I'd have all my red-alerts on at the moment. On second post he seemingly plays friendly with both Mith and Legate. That friendliness can be seen in his last post as well. And to top it all he seems to play with the possible innocense / guiltiness of himself in his second post - or the general fact of trusting / asking someone's word.

Mith: Starting with trying to make a jokingly warm relationship with Nogrod and indicating she might make the (safe!) vote for either Kath or Gil from tradition. That's as bad as saying one will vote by flipping a coin. No tracks left behind that is. Genuine wolf-tactics (Balrog-tactics): appeasing vocal players and backing up one's own vote forthcoming... On second post pure joking and passing the real discussion further. On third some general sense coupled with saying this and that cancelling each statement out = saying nothing. Looking helpful and villager-friendly while backing up her steps to come. Just what a balrog-Mith would do.

Legate: He calls people to speak but gives pretty little himself. Oh, how careful he is! Just look at them two posts! A joke, a storyline joke, making a comment on the undesirableness of non-posters, saying he won't be able to take part later in the Day, calling for people to talk so that he might make an educated deduction on what has been discussed. That is so carefully played... A balrog would mind his words that carefully.

The Might: Now what is this? What's the point of saying:

No point on blaming each other folks, as we know nothing for now. For all we know, it could be anyone of us. But the question remains...who is it?

? And not saying anything else but that!
So looking very agreeable indeed - and stating nonconsequential trivialities? Wouldn't a balrog like to stage that kind of image of himself? Helpful-sounding & -feeling but noncommitant. Like from a werewolf-handbook!

Okay. I'm probably pretty wrong with a few around here and you may guess I'm not the most serious with these at this stage. But the point is, let's start making some advances towards creating real discussion. And with probabilities I might be right with one of the people posted this far...

And as I have said and acted so many times before: I'm more than happy to vote any non-posters out on the first Day if there are no good reasons to claim that a loudmouth actually is suspicious enough.

That sure is just my point of view.

But please do start talking fellows.

[Brinniel]

Well, I'm here, though I'm afraid I don't have too much to say. With fifteen of us, I was hoping it would be a bit noisier by now. I suppose we'll just have to wait around and see who shows up.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

The innocents can't afford to be too noble .... no one can be discounted, not the quiet, not the noisy, and certainly not the pseudo helpful not the flyers-under- the radar....

I agree. These werebalrogs could be hiding anywhere among us. Everyone must be watched closely, even the most innocent seeming or these newbies among us...

EDIT: X-ed with Nogrod

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Which reminds me, unfortunately, the first Day is going to be a little bit tight for me, because it may happen that I am not going to be around here at the deadline so I'd be bound to vote somewhat early (wasn't it also Tuesday the first day in Gil's game?). And that would be in the morning, which is about 10 hours from now, so, not much fun. So, this is one more reason for everyone to talk, so that I may choose my vote based on some real evidence and not just randomly.

Yup, it was. Like in the preveous game, I'll be able to play only near the end of the Day. Timewise the game is uncomfortable for me... I might get to a computer during the Day for a short time.

Anyway, no unthought accusations from me, yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, seems at least something is starting to happen. The main crisis is behind us.

Nogrod, as always, had a very nice "kick in". Now, of course, the problem is that with him, you never know whether he seems joking, helpful, or whatever he just seems, because he is joking, helpful or whatever; or because he is hiding behind this mask. But personally, he gives out "normal" vibes to me, at least nothing too suspicious.

Brinniel seems quite all right to me, with her reaction to Nogrod - I believe a guilty Brinn would act differently.

Now Rikae... I can quite imagine her looks when she was posting that, she was laughing aloud - but then it's still the question whether she is a cobbler (Nerwen, I believe cobbler is some sort of a pie or something... is that correct?) or something else...
And I would like to bring forward that she's lying (about not being lynched in ten previous games): I can remember very well that in the first game I was playing, she was lynched the first day. And that was, if I'm correct, WW XXX, so it's only nine games ago.

The Might is a new one around here, so there is nothing much to compare his behavior with. He has this interesting double-triple-whatever-combination theory that I know very well (using that often ), but this does not signify anything by itself, only a style of playing (maybe). It will need more input. I'm a little bit afraid to let this out of my lips, because people may start sticking to that, and some balrogs the most, and that's not good; but I'll be probably reluctant to vote for someone of the new ones on the first day. Though, it is true that this far, they all seem quite active (or at least, make that impression), so maybe with enough input, there will be enough evidence to lynch one of them even toDay

But sally and Nerwen, to this point, seem quite genuine to me. Maybe sally... I don't know, maybe it's his style, the second paragraph of his post does not fit the whole frame of his post, or so it seems to me... we all know that saying "I am innocent" is the most ambivalent thing to be done... but whatever. Let's wait yet.

Heck, I don't have time now, have to leave. But I will be back in a few hours, finish my thoughts (mainly on Rikae, for I did not have chance to finish it all; and on Mith, about whom I'll surely say something), and then probably vote.

[Brinniel]

So far:

Nogrod- So far, most of him posts seem to be banter. Up until he criticises the "just dropping in" posts that have little substance. Could be a balrog hiding among harmless joking, but at this point it is hard to say.

Mithalwen- Taps in on the thought that we cannot discard anyone; non-participation could be a strategy. Not sure what to think...I alway have a hard time forming opinions of Mith, and usually when I do, I am wrong.

Lhuna- Haven't really heard from her except for her comment on lovers.

Legate- Appears to be the most helpful poster so far. And I happen to agree with mostly what he says. At this point, he doesn't ring any alarms.

Might-

Well, I could just as well start thinking if Lhunardawen really means it when she says "we innocent miners" implying she's a good person or if she only wants to mislead us, or if it's reverse-reverse-reverse-psychology.

Okay, I find this quote here to be rather confusing. I don't want to simply disregard newbies, but I don't know Might's style, so I'm not sure whether this confusing behaviour is suspicious or not...

Volo- So far, he has given no real substance.

Nerwen- I do agree with her thoughts on Rikae. So far, she gives off an innocentish vibe.

Shasta- Comments on Rikae's self-vote. Otherwise, no real substance.

Sally- At first I was really confused with her cobbler comment because I thought she was talking about the cobbler role, but now I realise she was just creating a metaphor with dessert. Silly me.

Anyways, I don't get any vibes from her just yet, but I would like to hear more from her.

Rikae- Oh, Rikae. I think her post was meant to cause controversy, and certainly it has. The possibilites:

-She is an innocent who either doesn't care much for her own survival, or she simply won't be able to return before deadline, therefore she chooses to accuse herself rather than point fingers at random players for no real reason.
-She is a cobbler and is trying to confuse us all (and hey, it's working).
-She is a balrog who thinks her self-vote will be viewed as too attention drawing and foolish to actually be suspicious and disregarded by most players.

Err...I'm not sure what to think. I really hope she comes back to explain herself.

So far, Gil, Mac, Kath, and Naria have yet to speak. I really hope they do turn up; we can't afford yet another game of no-shows.

It's way too late and I must go to bed now. Just a heads up: I have to vote 2 1/2 hours early. So if you have something to say, say it before then.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Huh? What? Nothing happened while I was away? Or are you all waiting for me to finish? How nice of you.

So, a few more thoughts. First, Rikae:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

At first glance, her vote against herself appears to be either a joke or an act of self-sacrifice. But a single vote against her doesn't really endanger her very much. Let's look at its immediate effect– to divert suspicion from herself.

Hmm... it may be so. One could say, having in mind what you said, that she is really asking to be lynched. You want to be lynched? Okay, we'll give you that! If you are a cobbler, no harm done. If you are a balrog, here we go - we caught you! However, this point of view would be a little oblivious to the possibility that Rikae is innocent. Personally, I don't see an ordo Rikae likely to risk in such a manner in order to divert suspicion from herself (if anything, it would have to be a joke). However, since she did not comment on her behavior this far, one cannot drop in too much conclusions...

Second, Mithalwen. There is something on her behavior that seems a little bit... confusing to me (or is it: confused?). That sort of a jumpylooking-jokinglyaccusing-nothingsaying-deepvalleyblack-deepvalleyforested gloomyland, err, wait, that was something else... anyway; what was I saying, her posts seem, well yes, confusing. Though on second look, there is something of real value inside them (like what she says about some people not willing to lynch the ones who did not have the chance to speak), but nevertheless, it's confusing.

People like Shasta, Volo, and who knows who else was here and slips under my radar, is slipping under my radar, for there was hardly anything that caught my attention about them. Now if that itself could be taken as a sign of danger... I'm leaving this thought to others. Currently, I'm afraid that I don't have ANY high suspect, which is really bad.
Oh, now, really! I just noticed one person whom I totally left out. Lhuna is one of those I have not noticed at all. Interesting. *points up* What does that say, that either I am just oblivious or that she is so inconspicious... (maybe intentionally...)

But, good news at least, it looks like I'll be able to make it for the DL after all, even though it might be in a hurry, but still I believe something that will point me in some direction may show up meanwhile.

And where are those who did not post at all yet?

EDIT: just x-ed with Brinn. Shame, you destroyed the effect of my opening of the post, having two posts in line...

[The Might]

No point on blaming each other folks, as we know nothing for now. For all we know, it could be anyone of us.
But the question remains...who is it?