Sauron's battle strategy

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

To add something to this, Sauron's original plan was - at least according to Gandalf, but I am quite convinced he was right here - to attack Rivendell and Lórien (and maybe the Havens - they were something like a "last stand" and probably not much of a fortress; their role would be very similar to that of the havens of Brithombar&Eglarest in the First Age). The problem of course was that Minas Tirith needed to be made a target, if just because it was a "stand-alone" problem, it was the one "wordly" power to stand against Sauron. Not forgetting the fact that Sauron hated the descendants of Númenor, and we also know he was nail and teeth holding to the search for Isildur's heir, of whom he was afraid that still exists. His plans to assault Rivendell were halted by the return of the King under the Mountain, as we are told in the Appendices and also in the Unfinished Tales. My current D&D campaign is based on the idea of Sauron trying to prepare Angmar for further re-settling it with his hosts (hopefully none of my players is going to read this ), which was historically - well, maybe not proven; but largely suspected fact. I suggest to all of you who have interest in this to read "The Quest of Erebor" in the Unfinished Tales, I could quote here but technically half of the chapter is about it.

I actually believe that if Sauron was not provoked by Aragorn, or have not learned that the Ring was found, he would attack Lórien and Rivendell first. However, after he learned the Ring was found - and more, that there is Isildur's heir still living in Middle-Earth (and even more, that he has probably conquered Isengard), the logical conclusion was that the danger will come out of the remnants of Dúnedain, which meant Minas Tirith. It was necessary to strike the Men before they unite under the returned King, and before that King comes with Sauron's Ring to challenge his power (or that was at least what Sauron obviously thought).

But as I said, had none of this happened, Sauron would've, I'm convinced, focus more on Lórien and Rivendell, as Mansun suggested. Though protected by powers of the Rings, both of the Elven havens would fall in time, if exposed to concentrated attack. The main trouble with Rivendell was that it was a little "off-hand" and after the Kingdom under the Mountain was rebuilt, the campaign would've taken too much time. Though as we know even from the Appendices to LotR, even during the War of the Ring Sauron almost succeeded in inflicting terrible harm to the North. Had he had a little more time or luck, beating Dáin, Brand and Thranduil (by both the forces of the Easterlings and Dol Guldur) would've opened the passage to Eriador to the hosts of Easterlings (!) and it will be the Second Age all over again; but this time, it won't be the Númenoreans but just a few Rangers and all the Hobbits at the Stony Ford and Brandywine Bridge (wow, now that would be also a great idea for fanfic). Lórien would be crushed as well, or surrounded in a hostile world, till slowly, as a last bastion of Light, it would fade under the Orc assaults and coming of the Nazgul.

Gandalf sums up his opinions on the situation after the War of the Ring like this:

Originally Posted by The Quest of Erebor

The main attack was diverted southwards, it is true; and yet even so with his farstretched right hand Sauron could have done terrible harm in the North, while he defended Gondor, if King Brand and King Dáin had not stood in his path. When you think of the great Battle of Pelennor, do not forget the Battle of Dale. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador! There might be no Queen in Gondor.

[The Might]

I believe Tolkien also says something like if Sauron had attacked the elves first the Quest would never have been completed, since the Fellowship would have lacked the so needed support, not to mention since the Orcs were all coming their way...I just can't remember where he says that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by The Might

I believe Tolkien also says something like if Sauron had attacked the elves first the Quest would never have been completed, since the Fellowship would have lacked the so needed support, not to mention since the Orcs were all coming their way...I just can't remember where he says that.

That's all from the Quest of Erebor. But of course, I think it's not necessary to point this out; if Rivendell and Lórien fell, it is obvious that the Fellowship would have had no chance. I think this is the part you are looking for:

Resistance still had somewhere where it could take counsel free from the Shadow. How could the Ringbearer have escaped, if there had been no Lórien or Rivendell? And those places might have fallen, I think, if Sauron had thrown all his power against them first, and not spent more than half of it in the assault on Gondor.

Gandalf speaks about it in conclusion with the fact that the assault of the Council on Dol Guldur, though unsuccesful (for Sauron escaped to Mordor), was still important, because if left alone, Sauron would surely soon use Dol Guldur as a base of attack against Lórien.

By the way, all these things are said by Gandalf to explain the fact why he wanted to help Thorin with his quest. He was afraid of the unguarded East, and of the Dragon, so he wanted to help to re-establish the Kingdom under the Mountain when the possibility appeared.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

It seems that Sauron's older plan was a "northern strategy", but it hinged in great part on making use of Smaug. Bilbo, Thorin and Bard kind of scotched that idea; and Sauron's principal base of operations was moved from Mirkwood south to Barad-dur thanks to the White Council.

Tolkien was also at least generally aware of logistics- the ease of an operation depends enormously on the length of one's supply lines. Minas Tirith was closest to Mordor (and the supposed capital of the new Ringlord).

Rivendell was a long way away and on the other side of the Mountains, and so pretty much unapproachable so long as Lorien stood and the Gap of Rohan held, and Gondor prevented his "marching in power along the coasts" as Boromir put it. Sauron thought he was dealing with each of these problems. He assaulted Lorien (apparently from Dol Guldur): this army was repulsed and deflected into northern Rohan, where the Ents destroyed it.

If the Nazgul were capable of reaching the Shire, it should be possible for Sauron to send a greater host, including the Mouth of Sauron & archers with great speed on horseback to attack key targets.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mansun

If the Nazgul were capable of reaching the Shire, it should be possible for Sauron to send a greater host, including the Mouth of Sauron & archers with great speed on horseback to attack key targets.

You mean during their hunt for the Ring? No way. The Ringwraith themselves had a big problem with crossing the river unseen; Sauron had to make assault on Osgiliath to enable them to pass to the other shore. In the Unfinished Tales we read:

Originally Posted by The Hunt for the Ring

The Lord of Morgul therefore led his companions over Anduin, unclad and unmounted, and invisible to eyes, and yet a terror to all living things that they passed near. It was, maybe, on the first day of July that they went forth. They passed slowly and in stealth, through Anórien, and over the Entwade, and so into the Wold, and rumour of darkness and a dread of men knew not what went before them. They reached the west-shores of Anduin a little north of Sarn Gebir, as they had trysted; and there received horses and raiment that were secretly ferried over the River.

It was important for them to cross the River unseen. The only possibility to cross Anduin was at Osgiliath or at the Undeeps, but a host was not capable across any of them unnoticed; and either way, there were miles of Rohan and the Gap of Isen to pass (there was no other way; passing through the Mountains would be unimaginable). And that meant confrontation with the Rohirrim and/or Saruman when noticed.
Also, it was speed what Sauron needed: both speed and secrecy. That was what only the Ringwraith could do.
And last and the most important: Sauron would not entrust the quest for the Ring to no one else but his most trustworthy servants; and maybe even Mouth of Sauron was not the one to be trusted in that matter - after all, he still had (or better maybe "was capable of having") free will. But even if Sauron sent him with the Ringwraith (not that he probably won't use Mouth's skills better at home; rallying armies, diplomacy talks with Southron kings and Easterling chieftains etc.), he probably won't allow him to bring along a squad of followers: Sauron won't entrust them with such a task.
It's all summed up here:

Originally Posted by The Hunt for the Ring

At length [Sauron] resolved that no others would serve him in this case but his mightiest servants, the Ringwraiths, who had no will but his own, being each utterly subservient to the ring that had enslaved him, which Sauron held.

[The Might]

At first not, but later Sauron interestingly did use lesser minions for the task of finding the Ring. After the defeat of the Nazgul he chose not to send them directly against the Fellowship, but to keep them hidden, and have them command a group of orcs led by Grishnakh. Even in this case it was not a large group, but only a small taskforce. Throughout Grishnakh's mission he was constantly instructed by the Nazgul, showing that Sauron still hoped for secrecy. He could have sent a large host, and that might have actually been better in the end, but he wanted Rohan and Isengard to know as little about this as possible.

Probably this was the wrong decision, sending the Ringwraiths would have probably meant death for Eomer and his men, and who knows if Rohan would have been so strong afterwards...but that's another story.

Anyway, sending the Ringwraiths seems the best solution, since unlike Orcs they could feel the presence of the Ring, and in the beginning it was only they that could find it easily despite its unknown location.
Also, other minions would never have received such helpful information from Saruman as the Wraiths did (UT).
And I am not sure what you mean by attacking key targets?
MoS and archers on horseback attacking Hobbiton? lol ...funny but inefficient