WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna approached Nogrod and tapped him gently on the shoulder.

"You seem to be quite in demand toDay," she said, when the old man looked around at her. "You asked me how I would have voted yesterDay had I been around nigh sundown. Simple: I would have voted whom I suspected, regardless of numbers. I build a case against someone I find suspicious after considering everyone, and when at the end of it I remain convinced that he is suspicious, I vote for him. Just like I've done the past couple of Days.

"What kind of vote would I not find suspicious? One that is backed up by previous words. Though on recalling yesterDay's events, I notice that at first you seemed to feel more uncertain of Izzy than xyzzy, and after the latter posted you expressed a greater suspicion of him. My mistake, then.

But you tell me that yesterDay I suspected you for not voting for someone who was about to be lynched. That's not true. I cared not that you did not vote for Shasta; what I was wondering about was that you changed your vote to tgwbs when Shasta's death was made certain. You spent that first Day convincing us to lynch the silents, and voted for xyzzy to show perhaps how serious you were, but when no one would listen, you changed your vote. True, you had expressed some doubt regarding tgwbs earlier that Day, but if you really were suspicious of him, I had kind of expected you to convince yourself, and us, that he was worth lynching, instead of going the xyzzy route. I might be being presumptuous in this, seeing that we've only been at this for a few Days, but then it's probably not so bad compared to how much you claim to know me."

She turned around and sought Rikae, and said, "I'm afraid I will not have the chance to hear what makes you feel that my words are deceptive, as a sleepiness that is out of this world, it seems, claims me again."

She bent low to the ground, and wrote with her finger:

++NOGROD

"There must be an end to all your deceit."

And she walked back to her bed of straw and lay down, and was fast asleep.

[Macalaure]

"The more I follow the argument between Nogrod and Guy, the more I cannot believe it's two innocents argueing here. Lynching one of them would be a shame, since they're the ones who contribute the most, but considering our numbers, I think we should be able to afford it. Also, though I can already foresee this point to be used against me: we need a proper dead body to analyse, one which leaves something that we can really analyse! And if the wolves won't supply us with one, we might have to do it ourselves. I'm very much against lynching a quiet one again today.

About Rikae, Lhuna and Brinn I feel relatively well, though I will reconsider this tomorrow. The same holds for Izzy, Gil and Mith.

I'm tempted to do analyses of Nogrod and Guy, but my forefathers laid a curse upon me never again to attempt such a thing, for the sake of their successors' sanity.

Nogrod makes a lot of theories, sometimes of questionable usefulness and sometimes of questionable quality, but always with unquestionable effort. One has to honestly acknowledge that. On many of Nogrod's positions I don't agree, while at the same time, I agree with almost all theoretical statements of Guy. This would clearly point towards a vote for Nogrod, but I've decided to not regard this and instead focus only on the way the two have been accusing one another and look who comes out as honest and who as manipulative.

I'll be back soon."

[Nogrod]

Nogrod had just gotten through with his remembrances when he felt Lhuna approach and address him.

"Sad to say but you're making a mistake here Lhuna - or then you're doing this in purpose which would be evil... I remember one case from my family's archives when all the wolves bandwaggoned my innocent ancestor in a row, in bright daylight they lynched my forefather as the others just stood by... and that was the end of that village then. It feels the same now I must admit and that makes me sad.

Also your obviously one-tracked suspicion of me should make me suspect you a lot and your timing with the guy should make me say that you're two wolves trying to secure a lynch of your liking.

But there are some things in what has been said on earlier Days that demand me to think of it further than my own feelings about you... We need to get wolves after all and I'm not so sure about you two anyhow. I do hold it possible you two are the wolves but a bit more probable is the quiets / non-present wolves scenario... whence you just are too quick to jump into bad conclusions and should learn more about the lore.

But the fact that you both set aside the obvious and easy solution that the wolves just fumbled last Night - and the one before - and were not up to their task kind of worries me in principle. Not the least as it is combined with your happiness to get rid of me... I'm not sure if either of you even mentioned the obvious way for us toDay while you can't claim you're not cognizant of it. I mean how else you explain the no-kills of the two Nights?

And to Mac and Rikae I must say this: You can't be serious when you think that in case the wolves left one kill unexecuted for strategic reasons it was me... just look at my status in this village right now - and yesterDay - and think how wise that would have been! Pure folly I say. But then again to you two it would have been a very good one indeed - or to one of you - as there seems to be no actual suspicion on you right now.

But I'll come back to this thing later as I now must eat.

So go ahead and lynch me if you so wish but I will tell you, you will have a hard Day toMorrow with zero lupines caught... I will promise to help you nonetheless toDay as much as I can. I hope you learn to appreciate it toMorrow if you can't open your eyes toDay."

With that Nogrod frowned and stood up to get his backpack. He felt sorry for himself but also for all the decent people around him. Now what's the problem, didn't I try enough?... how was it what Mother said: the world pays you back with unthankfulness...

WIth that old memory Nogrod smiled yet again. Petty people have petty thoughts... now my man don't be petty but eat up and then do what you can to help these people... You'll see whether it's enough or not and you can't do more than that.

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen spoke having been roused by the accusations against Nogrod, and this filled her with foreboding.

"Companions, I beg you to rethink your votes for the only thing I feel confident of at this time is that Nogrod is not a wolf.

Is it not possible that who ever guarded the wolves victim two nights ago was contrary to custom able to repeat the feat. I must recall the discussions but I fear only the wolves will rejoice in Nogrod's death. "

[Isabellkya]

Izzy stood up from where she had been sitting in deep thought. She could hear the voices of the others drift towards her, and had even seen the exchange between Lhuna and Nogrod. She stretched her arms above her head, and gazed around at the others.

'It seems I have arrived at a roadblock in my mind. At this particular time, Nogrod, Rikae, and Guy are foremost in my thoughts. I will have to go over my thoughts again, however it seems to me that both Rikae and Nogrod seem to be slightly ignoring each other. Whether this is because they are comrads in wolfishness, or because they find the other not suspicious; I have not decided upon yet.'

'The ongoing 'heated' discussion between Nogrod and Guy is a bit eyebrow raising. As I said earlier, Nogrod seems to have quite the number of tangents, and it is all well and good; however it is only successful in tying to drive us off course. Guy's heatedness in these discussions, is a bit disarming. One can understand frustration, but when it shows up almost every time; it makes one think that the two of them are cohorts and staging this little production for our benefit.'

'So I have three possible wolves in my foremost thoughts, however we only have two; correct? So I think that Nogrod is definately a wolf, and we must rid him of our group.'

++Nogrod

Izzy walked over to her bed and laid down for a nap.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod frowned...

"What did I say?

Well you can thank these people toMorrow if the worst happens."

[Mithalwen]

"I fear then it is 'Goodnight Tinuviel' if noone changes their mind..." Gah

[Nogrod]

Nogord raised his face to look at Mith.

"Oh don't you worry about that. Nienor is safe if I die. But I think that's the only good news there will be."

Then he tried to make a brave face.

"And anyhow there are still you Mith, Mac, Rikae, Brinn and myself to vote. That makes five. I'm just concerned that if Gil is a wolf and appears from somewhere... Anyhow we should not spread our votes or give them too hastily but discuss them first.

So let's be optimistic about that?"

[Macalaure]

"The words of Nogrod and the Guy who be short:

The whole thing started with Guy's strange, but excusable, behaviour on Day One. Nogrod appreciates Guy's vote and even defends it from Lhuna.
Then, later, he has mixed feelings about him. His reasoning is fair, but it comes a bit out of the blue. He then lists Guy as one minor suspicious and doesn't mention him anymore before he votes him even though an other of his suspects is in the lead.

The next day, Nogrod is suspicious about Guy's over-friendliness, but the supposed ineptitude of the wolves lessens his suspicion. He defends his vote before anybody was able to accuse him (explicable). Guy doesn't like the way Nogrod treated him the last day (of course) and is suspicious of him in turn. Nogrod explains his vote more. Guy understands then, but takes up Izzy's point and accuses Nogrod about being more busy with self-preservation than the interest of the group, a statement which is not very sustainable. Of course, it makes Nogrod suspicious again immediately.
Guy is now convinced about Nogrod's guilt because of his theoretical statements which he doesn't agree with. Nogrod gets a little bit angry in turn because he feels not listened to and misrepresented. I think both are both wrong and right in this part of their argument.
Guy then goes into mathematics to prove his point, which maybe he shouldn't have done. He also takes back the self-preservation argument and mostly drops his suspicion of Nogrod. This flip-flop has very innocentish-confused feel to me.
Nogrod then forms the theory that Guy was trying to launch a bandwaggon against him and gave up on the attempt. This argument is quite a leap in reasoning. It's also strange because by it he makes Guy appear in a bad light while he avoids the term "wolf".

Today, Guy is suspicious again because of the bandwaggon thing. His stance is quite defensive, but reasonable. He also accuses Nogrod of trying to distract us. Nogrod doesn't really answer to all this because he would rather go after wolves. But then, Nogrod ignoring Guy's points strengthens Guy's opinion. Understandable as an innocent, convenient as a wolf, I'd say. I don't like it that Guy calls it a "test".
Nogrod answers quite furiously, now. He points out flaws in Guy's arguments, which are valid points as far as I can see. There's something fuzzy about his tone here, and I don't mean the furor. He doesn't go as far as to call Guy guilty, which is quite consistent.
In response, Guy re-presents his reasoning and the course of his suspicion. He is not unaggressive, but he's also very straightforward, which gives an innocent feel again.
Nogrod's response is somewhat strange. He claims that Guy is being retaliatory, which I do not see, and points out that somebody who makes a wrong case isn't necessarily evil. There's an appeasing tone which I hold a little suspicious. It's strange that he is so sure about this half-innocent-half-guilty thing.


Quite passionate and enjoyable debate there - a soon-to-be classic maybe. Both have leaps in their reasoning, but mostly argue sound. So, I'm afraid, it comes down to tone, which is naturally a very subjective thing. I think the Guy wins here, because his straightforwardness is far less suspicious than Nogrod's occasional evasiveness and appeasing tone.


So... yeah... because something's fishy in his posts:

++Nogrod."


(crossed with Guy and Mith)

[Brinniel]

"Guy, you said that I misunderstood Nogrod's accusation, but I was really wasn't trying to relate and respond to it. I commented about your vote because it was more like thinking out loud.

"To me, Lhuna seems sincere with her words, and I find it more likely she is innocent. If she actually does turn out to be a wolf, then a cunning wolf she is indeed.

"As for Nogrod...

"Now threatened, Nogrod is attempting to prove everyone of his claimed innocence, even giving us strategies on how to find the wolves toMorrow. His words are convincing I admit, but I refuse to fall for it. It seems more like a wolf who is making one last desperate attempt to throw us. Of course, if he does turn out innocent we will all have regrets (except for the wolves, of course). But lynching someone who is supicious and noisy like Nogrod will be more useful than voting for someone silent like Gil-Galad, who we have no clue about. Because wolf or not, we will finally have something to analyse. There is always a risk in lynching someone, and I am quite willing to take this one."

EDIT: X-ed with Rikae and Nogrod

[Mithalwen]

"It is not one I am prepared to take though. Rikae those were not linked. I do not belive Nogrod ot be a wolf. I do think it is possible that our guardian may have been able to protect teh same person twice. I think it hightly unlikely that a lill was missed accidentally - there is only one incident in the books of Lore of such a thing happening that I know of, but most guardians may not protect the same person twice. Therefore the wolves were most likely going to go for the same victim and the guardian assumed this and used their unusual power again. That is how I read last nights events. " responded Mithalwen.

[Lhunardawen]

From where she lay, her eyes still closed, Lhuna let out a silent chuckle.

"Too willing to take up others' points? I, Mac? If this is concerning my agreeing with an observation made by Brinn, of which Nogrod took note, I had already explained myself. I had overlooked, and apologised."

[Nogrod]

"Do you Brinn actually believe that someone of my family would miss a kill while a wolf? I mean honestly? Or to pick up one Beleg protected the first Night for that matter? I'm not sure if I'd need to feel insulted indeed with this... You all can sleep and ignore things as much as you want but at my age we don't need the sleep that much and we still retain our wits not to lose kills if in position to make them...

So your argument is faulty because we know the wolves missed last night - and were clumsy the Night before. That's not me you're looking for.

I would go for Gil or Izzy from whom these slips could be anticipated. Or then Mith as it is possible she missed a thing or two - or to Lhuna the suspicion over whom I share with Rikae as I told you earlier. She seems too happy to trail throwaway points made by others when they serve her purposes.

But anyhow, it's your choice and I know you can't take my word as I say it. But as I said, if I'm dead the wolves will rejoice and those voting me with non-existant reasons hopefully will have very hard times toMorrow.

I'm just afraid no one here will then have the willpower to actually sit down and analyse the outcome and thence the wolves win... but I'm hopeful anyway."

[Nogrod]

"Did I say I'm hopeful? Not so much any more I must say...

But if I need to go let me speak my mind then - and I hope this time you listen. You'll learn the sincerity of this soon enough it seems.

I still think our wolves missed last Night. And unlike guy proposes I was online yesterDay comfortably and would never miss a kill - I would call someone on sms or whatever if I had personal troubles getting there inbto the spiritual world... this I feel a bit insulted about, that you seem to think that I would be that stupid or unresourceful. Sorry but I had to say this. Otherwise everything's fine.

Lhuna, if a wolf is the most cunning one but not unfathomable as her way of manipulating - as Rikae said - can be noticed.

Mac then I'm also very unhappy about right now. He is intelligent man but still refuses to see the point (clumsy wolves) and after looking at his posts I find them pretty odd. He seems to start almost every speech that he has concerning me with "Nogrod is suspicious... but he has a good point". Now what is this? Only now lately he has gotten encouraged to leave the pleasantries aside - even his last post looks quite calculatedly apologetical as one comes to think of it.

I mean Mac please tell me, how come you think the best option toDay is lynching the guy or me, the only ones who have actually tried a bit more and given some effort? Isn't it the best for the wolves if the speakers are taken out?

And if someone should be suspected for the "leaving a kill unmade" during the Night then you fit the description perfectly. To see how you now defend the quiets is just perfect wolf-tactics.

Mark my words toMorrow.

I'll have some more of them after a sjhort break but encourage you to consider thinking about these clumsy wolves whom we clearly seem to have around here."

[Nogrod]

I fear only the wolves will rejoice in Nogrod's death

"They will be the ones indeed..."

Nogrod uttered in a half-answer to Mith from between the bites of dry meat he was gnawing sitting on his blanket.

"But before this is over for toDay I wish to first remind you all of a few things as I know - and have seen already toDay - that some of you are keen to take your weapons up and make your statements early enough.

Remember. We have two wolves here. Together they may pile up my votes to four if both guy and Lhuna are innocent and that's hard to overcome even if you came back to your senses. So hold it for a while now.

What is this lunacy now that everyone forgets our basic situation? If I'm going to be lynched toDay - or killed during the Night - please be careful to check who keyed this concentration.

And I think the next voter for me - if there is one - should be looked at very closely toMorrow after you've finally learned my innocence for that person surely knows that in this lazy place three votes will secure the wolves their pleasure.

Indeed one of the main reasons for all this is this darn sleepiness here - and I would add, laziness... but it's hard to point that one thing especially to anyone in particular as it seems to pervade this whole cave."

Nogrod took another bite and made one more remark.

"On Night1 Beleg was able to outwit the wolves and on the next the wolves failed to even try. That seems to be quite clear. So what is our first and the most reasonable lynching project?

How can you forget this?

I wished myself to have other discussions toDay as it would be both boring and not contributing to our case if we just discussed whether we lynch Gil, Izzy or Mith."

With that he glanced at Mith apologetically.

"Sorry Mith, I approve of your words but in the name of our common survival I can't rule you out either just because you made a sensible speech...

And if someone wishes to maintain the second option as I myself might be ready as well - that the wolves intentionally gave a kill away, then look at those who were the most secure in the end of Day2 and how they have reacted to things toDay.

That's my short advice right now. I try to have something more detailed on in a while."

Nogrod took the last bit of the meat and fell back to think.

[Rikae]

"I'm sorry, Mithalwen, but I don't really understand what you mean by that statement. How does a ranger's inability to protect the same person twice in a row prove that Nogrod is not a wolf?
Besides, if I read the narration correctly, a different person had the bow on night 2; in which case, the same person could possibly have been twice protected (if the wolves even went after the same victim twice, which isn't really a given, either).

I'm not so sure about Nogrod's suspiciousness, though, either. Yes, he's involved in a heated debate ; yes, he's jumping all over the place with crackpot theories ; but, after all, isn't that the Nogrod we know?

I am actually quite concerned about Lhuna; who seems to be using her words in a calaculated and manipulative manner to bring about a pre-determined result; and Mithalwen, who has had long enough to catch up but continues to speak in a safe fashion - humorous, non-controversial, and brief; her style seems calculated to generate vague positive feelings toward her and lull others into unthinking trust.

I don't know why Macalaure has set up this choice between Nogrod and Guy; it hardly seems obvious to me that they are the only reasonable choices; nor that one of the two must be a wolf.

The day is drawing to a close, but I have to admit, I am far from reaching a decision."

EDIT: X'd with Izzy, Noggie & Mith.

[Macalaure]

While he was preparing/recovering from his speech, Rikae and Mith addressed Macalaure and he now found the breath to respond to them.

"Rikae, those two, Nogrod and Guy, probably aren't objectively the obvious choices, but to me, right now, they are. I'm not pursueing Izzy, Mith or Gil, because lynching a third silent one in a row will do us no favour, and you, Brinn and Lhuna I really don't feel guilty so far, in contrast to Nogrod and Guy.

Tomorrow, I will reconsider all this, hopefully with more evidence to look at.


I understand where you are coming from, Mith, but I still think Nogrod's guilt to be the more likely reason than other things."

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen snorted to herself. Whatever the straits she would not have failed in her duty even as a servant of Morgoth. Had it been her duty to kill she would have found a way.