WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[Rikae]

Rikae, hearing Xyzzy's remark about statistics, shot a cold glance at him.
"I certainly hope you are joking, my boy. Though it has been nearly a decade since I've studied that particular topic, I don't think I've forgotten everything; and I also happen to know that that short fellow over there has studied it quite recently, and the gentleman in the leather cloak knows more about mathematics than all of us put together.
I don't know what exactly you're trying to accomplish with that strange statement you just made, but it can't be good.
Not lynch anyone? I suppose the wolves will also be kind enough not to kill anyone by night, eh?
Even if you do jest, you have shown yourself to be flippant and unhelpful; you disrespect your elders and your name is impossible to pronounce.
I'm afraid you'll have to go, sonny.
--Isabellkya
++Xyzzy"

[Nogrod]

"I must say this Xyzzy speaks most strangely... is it because he knows he's one of the top candidates to be lynched and thence wishes to make this last minute appeal when he has no better candidatew to bring forwards as a contender?"

[Brinniel]

"And xyzzy, it is too late for that...even before you stated this, votes had been placed. However, I do not find you wolvish for this, though you are not completely in the clear. But I think a wolf would be more clever than to put out such an absurd statement...

"I am voting now:

++tgwbs

"And I know some of you have suspected him as well..."

[the guy who be short]

Guy looked around, glad that most of the village had finally woken up. "I'm satisfied," he said to Nogrod, "because I'm about 90% certain I've identified a wolf in you, and more or less everything you say strengthens this belief. However, there is still one other wolf to find, and I've been putting my mind thereto.

If I'm correct in my presumption of why there was no wolf kill last Night (i.e. one quiet wolf not saying anything, and Nogrod being unable to convey the decision due to spiritual difficulties), then the other wolf must be quiet.

Unfortunately, the "quiet list" is quite extensive, including Izzy, Gil and Mith. Of these three, I do not think a wolf-Mith would strongly defend Nogrod at such a time, so she seems innocent but misguided. I have felt Izzy to be innocent for a while, so her vote at this time seems to me to point to her innocence. However, she could have decided to vote for him after his urge to look carefully at the third voter for him, sacrificing him to appear innocent. What I find most likely, though, is the absent Gil being Noggy's ally.

Of the others, Mac has seemed innocent for a long time. I do not think wolf-Lhuna would vote for Noggy at such a crucial time. Rikae and Brinn I am both unsure of; parts of their behaviour make me feel they are guilty, and other parts make me feel they are not.

In conclusion, if Noggy is a wolf, I think the second wolf is most likely Gil, then Izzy. There is a small chance it may be Rikae or Brinn, but I find this unlikely. I think Mac, Lhuna and Mith are probably innocent."

[Lhunardawen]

Roused by Gil's outbursts, Lhuna sat up in her straw bed with a jerk, and panic washed over her as it does over a student who oversleeps. But she soon saw that everyone was yet alive, and again she felt relieved and wary at the same time.

"Has this even happened in the villages of old?" she asked no one in particular. "I am quite confident the wolves are making history on this hill. Never before has any creature of Morgoth failed so greatly in his task! In this I am more fully convinced that inexperienced wolves are among us.

"YesterDay was certainly a disaster, and alas that Nogrod spoke the truth! But if his death gains us anything, it's that I'm sure a wolf or both of them could be revealed by intense recollection of yesterDay's proceedings.

"The first to vote for him was tgwbs, and we need not be reminded of the misunderstanding they had. But tgwbs seemed sincere, and I doubt he would be so reckless as to be so noisy, and to start the whole thing, so to speak, if he was a wolf. This makes me believe him innocent.

Izzy

[the guy who be short]

Guy awoke and looked around once more, counting heads, before being told that the wolves had been thwarted once again. He sighed.

"While it is indeed good news that the Wolves were defeated once again, this means we have had no wolf kills for three nights. This is terrible for the village, because we have nothing to analyze from the wolves.

The voting record also is quite dismal; yesterday, the lynching of Noggy was almost unanimous. The day before, xyzzy was killed with an overwhelming majority. Not only do we have few clues from the Night, we also have very little to work on from the Day.

I have to say, I am disappointed with my part in the lynching of Nogrod. I was so certain he was a wolf. Although he wished me to 'bag the wolves' for him, I'm not sure how useful looking at his final words will be. In his final two posts he expressed suspicion of Mac, Rikae, Lhuna, Gil, Izzy and Mith, and also me earlier in the day. This is hardly promising.

Instead, it may be worth looking at what other people said about him at the time. And the voting record. Nogrod said 'Blame yourselves toMorrow - but also look closely those who triggered this and those who were too happy to follow. Especially those who hadn't voiced that strong suspicions on me earlier but were now happy to jump for a vote - notwithstanding how reservedly they made they vote.' In this, I think he is right, and I shall be following that up."

Guy almost receded to think a little, but one last thought came to him.

"Half the day is gone and we have said dismally little. I beseech every member of our band of outlaws to say as much as possible."

[Macalaure]

Macalaure took a deep breath for the many things he was about to say:


"Firstly: Of Nogrod's suspicions on the last day:

Throughout the game, he wanted us to lynch the quiet ones, Gil and Izzy in particular, Mith to a much lesser degree.

Despite their quarrel, he wasn't really suspicious of Guy. At the end of the day he raises his suspicions a bit again, but not to a serious extent.

He makes a good point about Lhuna (too willing to take up other's points) which might be worth to be considered. I'll have to take one more look at her.

He's suspicious of Rikae and me, for saying that he might skip a kill and try to lead us astray. (In my case, this was just a thought that crossed my mind. If you look at my speeches, you will see that I never pursued this idea.)

He's suspicious of me in speech #168, and I can see where he comes from.

If the wolves forwent their kill for tactic reasons, he thinks it's Rikae and me.
However, I cannot see any such tactics anymore. Why not kill at one night and (try to) kill in the others? Makes no sense. I'm still not so eager to agree on the "clumsy wolves"-thing. Even the most clumsy wolf gets a kill right sometimes. I'd rather think that Beleg and Androg have been very apt (and, undebatably, rather lucky as well).


Secondly: Of the voting order:

1. the guy who be short (been suspicious of Nogrod almost all day. If he's a wolf, he's a gutsy one not afraid to commit)
2. Lhunardawen (there's been a lot of suspicion against Nogrod around when she made this pivotal vote. I'll have a look at her reasoning later. Taken by itself, this vote looks bad)
3. Isabellkya (this important vote gave Nogrod the clear lead and is suspicious therefore. It certainly doesn't make Izzy look better)
4. Macalaure (destroyed all hope left. It's less suspicious than Lhuna's and Izzy's vote, I think, but suspicious nonetheless)
5. Rikae (not the best reasoning behind it. Could be the vote of a wolf going with the flow. But she could easily have made a more well-reasoned vote for somebody else (esp. as a wolf, I mean), which makes her vote look better)
6. Brinniel (again, could be a wolf going with the flow)

Mithalwen's defensiveness of Nogrod could be wolvish in theory, but I get an extremely innocentish feel from it.


Thirdly: Of the things that have been said today:

Brinniel mainly states the obvious and Izzy states precisely nothing.

Gil obviously hasn't caught up on the game yet (Shasta is no werewolf and Brinniel hasn't been the most adamant to lynch him). Nevertheless he gives a vote, which raises my eyebrow, too. Brinn's reaction seems honest to me.

Now, in all the werewolf-plagued villages that my ancestors have been through, they have never encountered the offer "I'm not suspicious of you if you're not suspicious of me"!
You're not sure if Brinniel is a wolf or not. You see the need to defend yourself (of course) and you do that by voting her. Then you say you won't go after her if she doesn't go after you. That's the most horrible case of self-preservation I have ever come across."

After he ended his speech, he sat back to let Lhuna continue her's.


(crossed with the Guy)

[Brinniel]

Brinn shook her head, finding this young man's words to be rather ridiculous.

"How could you say that I would be the chief prosecutor of your lynching, Gil, when no one has even considered you a prime suspect yet? I don't know where you're getting the idea that I'm pulling this 'crusade' against you....I have never before specially targeted you as a possible lynchee.

"Yes, as one of the silent ones you have been a suspect, I won't deny that. But this mostly comes from the fact that there have been no wolf-kills and I think that it's due to clumsy wolves, and I feel pretty sure at least one of those are silent. But honestly, due to some of her posts from the past Days (which I will go over later), I thought Izzy to be the more suspicious one. And now with this sudden outburst of yours, I must reconsider this. It is even possible both of you are wolves...

"This entire argument of yours is folly, boy. Either you indeed are a wolf panicking after another Night of no kills, or you are very, very blind."

EDIT: X-ed with tgwbs, Mac, and Lhuna

[Lhunardawen]

"Izzy had suspected both tgwbs and Nogrod throughout the Day, and voted for Nogrod in the end. She also suspected Rikae, but it feels to me like a retaliation for the suspicion the latter also casted upon her. Definitely suspicious behaviour.

"Rikae, from being unsure of Nogrod's suspiciousness, saying that he's the Nogrod we all known, ended up voting for him because he appeared desperate ere the end and looked bad for reusing his arguments. That's quite a jump, if you ask me. Risky move for a werewolf, though, because it reeks of jumping into a bandwagon, and the old woman should have enough wisdom to avoid that. I find her a tad less suspicious than Izzy, and it's doubtful they are wolves together.

"Mac has me admiring him for this risky but honest remark, on the possibility of lynching tgwbs or Nogrod: We need a proper dead body to analyse, one which leaves something that we can really analyse! And if the wolves won't supply us with one, we might have to do it ourselves. He spoke true, and shows that he is serious in hunting down our wolves. From the start he had suspected Nogrod more than tgwbs, following their arguments to the point of practically abandoning all thought of the others. In the end he basically used subjectivity as the basis of his vote, which was for Nogrod. The effort he exerted in analysing their exchange, and his relative steadfastness now puts him in my innocent list.

"Mith makes me worry about her adamant stand that Nogrod is innocent. It's perfect because it was her against all of us, practically, and now she has all the right to say I told you so. But there are only a few people who could know for certain his innocence. One would make us trust her, but the other would make us lynch her. Another thing to consider is her amount of contribution, apart from the issue concerning tgwbs and Nogrod, and that for me tips the scale towards the suspicious side. She voted for Brinn, for reasons I do not completely understand, and the way she attacked Brinn after she cast her vote for Nogrod makes me all the more wary of her.

"Brinn stood her ground in her suspicion of Nogrod, and voted accordingly. I'm feeling rather neutral towards her.

"Mind that these are mostly based on yesterDay's votes and could change if other factors are also considered. My suspects are Mith and Izzy or Rikae.

"Now, Gil, I haven't forgotten you. Your long disappearance casts doubt on your lycanthropy, but again the killing could be done even in your absence, I believe, but I don't think that would be the case. I advise you not to be too jumpy, though, or I for one might forgo my previous assumption and contemplate on having you lynched."

Out of breath, she lay down on her straw bed again and shut her eyes, and breathed deeply.

[the guy who be short]

Guy took up a stick and walked over to the voting record for Days 1 & 2. Underneath, he wrote the record of Day 3.

Day 1:
tgwbs: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 1)
Gil-Galad: ++Shasta (xyzzy: 1, Shasta: 1)
Lhuna: ++Macalaure (xyzzy: 1, Shasta:1, Macalaure: 1)
Rikae: ++Shasta (xyzzy: 1, Shasta: 2, Macalaure: 1)
Nogrod: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 2, Shasta: 2, Macalaure: 1)
Brinn: ++tgwbs (xyzzy: 2, Shasta: 2, Macalaure: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Macalaure: ++Shasta (xyzzy: 2, Shasta: 3, Macalaure: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Nogrod: --xyzzy (xyzzy: 1, Shasta: 3, Macalaure: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Nogrod: ++tgwbs (xyzzy: 1, Shasta: 3, Macalaure: 1, tgwbs: 2)

Day 2:
Rikae: ++Izzy (Izzy: 1)
tgwbs: ++xyzzy (Izzy: 1, xyzzy: 1)
Lhuna: ++Nogrod (Izzy: 1, xyzzy: 1, Nogrod: 1)
Rikae: --Izzy (xyzzy: 1, Nogrod: 1)
Rikae: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 2, Nogrod: 1)
Mac: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 3, Nogrod: 1)
Brinn: ++tgwbs (xyzzy: 3, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Nogrod: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 4, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Mithalwen: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 5, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)

Day 3:
Guy: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
Lhuna: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 2)
Izzy: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 3)
Mac: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 4)
Rikae: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 5)
Brinniel: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 6)
Mith: ++Brinniel (Nogrod 6, Brinniel 1)

He looked around. "I shall refer to this later. Feel free to use it yourselves, too."

[the guy who be short]

Guy spoke again. "I have to admit, I am quite worried about Mith, for several reasons.

First off, there was here huge show yesterday while Nogrod was being lynched. When first thinking about this, I thought this pointed to her innocence. However, she really did overdo it.

Mith obviously thought Noggy was gifted. I think she was hoping that, upon being lynched, this would be the case; this would point to her being his fellow gifted.

What bothers me most about yesterday is that she was present since Izzy's vote for Nogrod, the third vote, but she did not vote until the end. Why? If she was truly concerned about Nogrod being a gifted, and truly wanted to save him, why not vote early, with good reasons, and attempt to create an alternative bandwagon? It really seems contradictory that she was worried Nogrod would be lynched and end up gifted, but didn't commit herself to saving him. It seems that ultimately, she wanted him lynched, thus getting rid of what she thought was a gifted, with the added bonus of making her appear innocent and gifted toDay. I bet it really annoyed her that he wasn't gifted.

There are other things that bother me about Mith. She seemed intent on making it seem that the wolves had been defeated by gifteds on Night 3, rather than sleeping through it, despite evidence to the contrary.

Then there is her sudden jump on Brinn merely for saying that an innocent Nogrod would make Mith look bad...

There's also the way that Mith has kept up a presence, but not actualy said much. Going over the last couple of Days, I've found that she's expressed no opinions at all about Rikae, Mac or Lhuna - a third of the village, and a significant third at that.

So, I await her reasons and also some input about the people she has, perhaps conveniently, avoided mentioning at all. I will now look for other suspects."

He walked off and started looking at the voting records he had drawn earlier, mumbling to himself.

[Macalaure]

"++xyzzy" said Macalaure, "for reasons I and others have previously stated."

[Mithalwen]

"Well Brinniel I am in the strange position of finding two peopel suspicious but alas one of them is suspicious for suspecting so quickly someone I now find supicious. "

[Mithalwen]

Time is against me to resolve this logic problem .. but Xyzzy's no lynch plan is ludicrous - and I don't know about TGWBS but his maths is better.

++ Xyzzy

[Nogrod]

"I think I will join this wagon toDay...

++ Xyzzy

From Isabell we can get some readouts anyway and Xyzzy's last comments make him look pretty bad. I'm much more hopeful with this now than I was twenty minutes ago."

[Nogrod]

"Maybe Xyzzy just couldn't make a rivalling case that would have sounded believable enough?"

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The outlaws turned to Xyzzy, who has been sitting quietly in the corner, listening to their talk and looking from one on another like a little animal when a pack of wolves approaches.
The grim faces of the outlaws did not seem at all comfortable.
"You were just waiting for us to kill each other," the guy who be short spoke, "right? Hiding in the shadows, so that no one notices you!"
"But - "
"You are a werewolf! We know it!" yelled Rikae, picking up a stone and throwing it at Xyzzy. The man raised his hands to cover his face, but the stone hit him in cheek. "No!" he shouted with pain, but at that moment also the others were picking up stones from the ground. "Catch this!" shouted Macalaure. Stones were flying from all sides, and slowly, Xyzzy slumped down to the ground and fell asleep.

"He's dead," said Nogrod. "He cannot harm us anymore."
"But could he?" said Lhuna, coming closer to the dead body. No change was to be seen on the face of the dead. "He was innocent!" shouted Isabellkya. "Innocent, and you killed him! Fools! Now there are still two of them wolves around!"
Silence fell on all. "But -" said Brinn. "But – what are we going to do, then?"
Nogrod looked at the young outlaw sideways. "What should we do? Sleep, as always. You don't have to act like a little girl, even though you look like one!"
Surprisingly to everyone, Brinn blushed. "Hey, what is it?" said Nogrod. "What's that, m'boy?"
"I am a girl," said Brinn.
"Whoa!" shouted Macalaure. "A girl?"
Brinn turned on him, looking angered. "Yes! And so what? Heck, forget it! Does it matter? I can fight, I can swear, I can live in the wilderness."
"I always thought him – her – strange," said Rikae. "Oh, you look like a man indeed, my girl."
Mithalwen nodded. "Everyone of us is an outlaw. Our fates are manifold."
"Not everyone is just an outlaw," spoke Nogrod's voice, reminding them of their main concern. "And where is Gil-Galad and the Dwarf, anyway?"
All looked to the entrance as if they expected the two to enter at that very moment. But the entrance was empty, only a sudden cold wind of the incoming night's wind blew inside, stealing heat of their bodies.
"Let's go to sleep," said Lhuna, picking up a blanket that Xyzzy left in the corner. "I am terribly tired. Maybe they will come back later at night."

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – dead:

Ibun son of Mîm, killed by a Werewolf on Night 1
Shasta alias Saeros, outnumbered and stabbed on Day 1
Xyzzy the Outlaw, stoned to death on Day 2

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – living:
Mîm the Petty Dwarf, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
Rikae
Nogrod
Macalaure
Isabellkya
Brinniel
Lhunardawen
Gil-Galad, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
the guy who be short
Mithalwen

Night 3 begins. Outlaws, stay low. Two Captains, you may talk. Wolves, you may plot. Whoever has anything to send to me, please do so as soon as possible.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sun rose above Doriath in the east and its light goldened the crown of Amon Rûdh. It was a sunny, windy morning and just light clouds were moving swiftly in the skies.
Eight outlaws were sleeping in the halls of stone. Closest to the entrance was lying Mithalwen, curled in a coat of fur. Right on the other side of the main hall there was Nogrod's place, the old man was about to awake, as he was used to in the early hours. Behind a junction in one of the shorter corridors leading out of the room, Brinn's face was hardly seen under a pile of quilts.
In the long corridor leading down to Mîm's hidden smithy, Macalaure slept restlessly. He was muttering something to himself in his sleep, rolling from one side to the other. Even deeper in the mountain, Isabellkya was breathing low near the entrance to the Dwarf's chamber, blocked by a stone now when its occupant was away.
The guy who be short slept alone in one of the smaller halls, a sword lying by his side. But his sleep was a deep one, despite the morning hour, so even if something was happening, he probably won't rise to defend himself. In a nearby room Rikae was lying, holding her staff even in deep sleep.
Lhunardawen rested comfortably on a large pile of sacks full of straw, her tangled black hair spread all over and also full of straw that somehow got out of the sacks.

The only ones who were not present already were Gil-Galad and Mîm. But all the other outlaws were here, alive, some asleep, but first yawnings were already heard as the early risers awoke. Their third day in Amon Rûdh has dawned.

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – dead:

Ibun son of Mîm, killed by a Werewolf on Night 1
Shasta alias Saeros, outnumbered and stabbed on Day 1
Xyzzy the Outlaw, stoned to death on Day 2

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – living:
Mîm the Petty Dwarf, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
Rikae
Nogrod
Macalaure
Isabellkya
Brinniel
Lhunardawen
Gil-Galad, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
the guy who be short
Mithalwen

Day 3 begins. Nightly walkers, stop talking. Everyone, awake!

[Nogrod]

Nogrod woke up and eager to find ot some news he took a swift glance around him... he counted the sleeping outlaws. Everyone's here... the dwarves chamber..., he half ran there only to see everyone deep in sleep. Now where else...

Finally Nogrod came to sit by the pool in the early morning sunshine. No one was dead but Mîm and Gil hadn't returned either.

And everythnig looks so nice and neat, like there was no struggle, no nothing... Maybe our wolves missed this Night by sleeping over it? Or Gil is one and away and the second one missed this Night alone? This needs to be thought... as soon as I can get myself wake well enough...

Nogrod fell into his thoughts which neared half-sleep, but he would wake up in a short time...

[the guy who be short]

Guy was woken earlier than his usual time by nightmares of werewolves. He sat up, bolt upright, and looked around in fear.

Nogrod looked over at him and smiled. "Everybody's alive! They're all still sleeping, but I've counted; nobody's missing save Mim and Gil. Most peculiar..."

Guy didn't entirely trust him and counted himself. So it is true, he thought. We were lucky last night, but this night has been even better! Although... this lack of nightly death does make it difficult to calculate who the wolves may be. We have no records or insight into how they think.

"I think you're right," he said to Nogrod, who was the only other one awake, though one or two others were stirring. "The wolves must have slept through this night, for there is no hint of any struggle. It does indeed seem that we have inexperienced or flippant wolves, taking the night before into account too.

That said, Mr Nogrod, I have a few metaphorical bones to pick with you. But I'll get there soon..."