WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[the guy who be short]

"Hmm. You've got me there, Rikae. Let me have a think...

If we kill two people, that chance that both are wolves is (2/11)^2 = 4/121 = 3.3%

The chance that one is a wolf and the other is not is 2(2/11x9/11) = 36/121 = 29.8%

The chance of no wolves is (9/11)^2 = 81/121 = 66.9%

Now, if we only killed one person, the chance of a wolf is 2/11 = 18%, which is far lower than the 33.1% we'd expect if we lynched two people.

The maths may have been slightly off (3.2% overestimation in fact) but the results are still the same.

All of this, as I've said, now being a moot point." Guy stuck his tongue out at Rikae, but she swiftly hit him with her stick and denounced his frivolity.

His brain steaming from the calculation, and his leg from the staff, Guy stepped outside for a drink from the pool before returning quickly..

[Rikae]

"You overestimated the results to promote your plan, AND smuggled in an anachronistic calculator! Shame on you.

With your "4/11", it looked as though you were simply multiplying your wolf-odds heedlessly.

In any event, it's a senseless plan. If we mass-lynched 9 random people, the chance of winning the game is 66.9%. Shall we do it? Or would you rather wait until we have some more evidence to base our decisions on, and improve our odds?"

[the guy who be short]

"Come now!" Guy replied. "An accidental overestimation of 3.3% (I thought it was 4/11 = 36.4% when in reality it was 33.1%) is hardly going to change anybody's mind; it's still obvious that not wasting a lynch is beneficial to the community. And what plan? There is no plan to do this because nobody has been quiet enough to be cursed... You seem intent on focussing discussion on this irrelevant point.

What is this calculator you speak of, eh? Never heard of such a thing...

And the difference is, we can't mass lynch 9 people. We can only lynch one person per Day (for some reason). To forfeit this lynching in the name of preserving numbers would be foolish."

[the guy who be short]

"Alas, I must vote now, for I feel a great weariness taking me," Guy yawned. "I shall not now awake until Tomorrow.

++XYZZY

Because the quiet are deadly, and he has given us very little to work with regarding his innocence or guilt.

As it stands, I shall tell you my thoughts on each member of our village:

Nogrod feels more innocent than guilty, but you can never tell with him. I also feel quite sure that Mac is innocent because of his manner of thinking.

Below them comes Izzy, whose comments about working together and general demeanor make me feel she is innocent. Speak more, dear, or you'll be lynched by the likes of Rikae.

Athough I thought Rikae quite innocent until now, I have doubts. Her insistence to distract us from coming to conclusions by continuing a discussion about a moot point - lynching the silent - makes me wary. I also dislike her jumping on Izzy - her reasoning is based on supposed hints in Izzy's words, her not knowing who Beleg and Turin are. This all seems fabricated to me, an attempt to target an easy lynch. I'll be watching Rikae.

Likewise, I do not trust Lhuna for her debating the gifteds.

Gil-Galad and Mith I cannot decide on, for they too have been very quiet, though with more excuse than xyzzy.

I am also undecided on Brinn. She seems to me to be a bit too defensive. I accused her - obviously in jest - of wolvery based on her looks. She has since been dedicated to lynching me.

That is that. Good night, dear people."

Yawning, Guy retired to bed.

[Lhunardawen]

There were hurried footsteps, and Lhuna rushed in.

"My apologies, I had lost track of the time! But really, you should try stepping outside - it's beautiful out there..."

Lhuna shook her head hard twice, as though to dislodge any distracting thoughts, and said:

"First off, I don't think I was speculating too openly about the gifteds. I was merely trying to think of what could possibly link tgwbs and Nogrod to explain what I noticed of them. It so happened that the gifteds were an option, you certainly couldn't deny that, and presented it. That's it. I neither dwelt on the idea nor pushed it."

She walked around slowly in a large imaginary circle, her eyes on the ground.

"It has been considered a big possibility that at least one wolf is among the silent ones. But don't you think that such a strategy - if you could call it that - could be too obvious? A wolf naturally would fear saying too much at the risk of slipping, and so would rather clam up. But these could be shrewd wolves we're up against. We should remember that these spies of Morgoth could blend well with us in the Day, speaking much sense and misleading us in the process. I'm just trying to say that we shouldn't limit our suspects too much to those who are quiet.

"That said, I wish to express my growing suspicion of Nogrod. Thus far he had been very open to us, what with saying that with his vote last Night he had hoped to preserve himself for another Day. He had made known to us that he thought he would be the first victim, and thus needed to do something to make himself suspicious toDay for the wolves not to kill him. He also speculated on the possible identity of the wolves based on last Nights non-kill, grouping all of us into three in the process.

"I now understand the self-preservation bit of his unusual vote, but it makes me feel really uneasy, how he insists that he would have been killed last Night. It's a rather bold assumption, in my opinion. Granted, his ancestors are known for their wolf-hunting prowess, but all the same...it was to me as though he was parading the fact that he's yet alive, and that's because he managed successfully to use his own life, in a manner of speaking, as bait.

"Another thing that gives me great discomfort is how, in my opinion, he's underestimating the wolves. It's a stupid mistake, he seems to say, that the wolves picked so obvious a victim that Beleg could protect, so the wolves must be so-and-so! But the events of the Night were likely to be more complicated than he's making it.

"What he's doing here, as I see it, is making it so much apparent to us that he's innocent. Of course we who are innocent know we are, and would like to convince the others that we indeed are, but Nogrod's way of doing it, how he's being so blatant yet subtle about the whole thing - it's not sitting right with me."

Lhuna stopped walking, and swayed a moment as though dizzy. She sat down on the ground and closed her eyes.

[Rikae]

"I don't wish to distract; I just became distracted, myself, by your strange estimate. I thought it should be closer to 3/11. Certainly it's irrelevant, and I don't really expect anyone else to pay attention or care, nor was I seriously accusing you of inflating the numbers. It was all meant in a light-hearted way.

As for Isabell, she can find out easily enough who our protecters are; but, more than her words, I distrust her for her defensive tone and the feeling she gives of contributing the bare minimum and attempting more to avoid suspicion than to help.

I could very well change my vote, though, before the day is done, in which case I would consider voting for Lhuna or Xyzzy, or even Nogrod."

EDIT: X'd with Lhuna

[Nogrod]

Nogrod opened his eyes at last and yawned.

"I've been doing some thinking myself too and would like to share some of my latest thoughts.

Yes, I was pretty convinced in the morning that the wolves had just made a total blunder and therefore considered them to be somewhat short-sighted. Although dear Lhuna it's not a bold assumption from someone of my family to expect to be killed in the first Night though. I'm quite used to been dreamt or killed pretty early so I kind of take it for granted and basically try to fight against that destiny by being controversial enough if I'm innocent or smooth enough if I'm a baddie.

I might add that if my memory serves me right there was basically no suspicions on me on Day1 and and I admittedly was the loudest and all around. So someone whom the wolves would like to get rid of sooner than later. Adding these two things (my family's past exeriences + the Day1 non-suspicion) together made me think I was an obvious choice for both Beleg and the wolves.

But then I started to think back on other possibilities as well as I was getting afraid that I had been too hasty. And sure: if Lhuna or Rikae are both innocents - but neither is Beleg or Turín - then they might have been the choices of the last Night as well. That being the case there was some luck in last Night's protection and consequently our wolves - or at least another one of them is much more cunning I have allowed her/him to be so far.

Yes. I think it is important to see all the possibilities. Although here I think these three people are the ones between whom the choices were made last Night. The wolves have no reason to kill the silents and Beleg has no reason to protect one either - unless he protects a silent Turín but that surely was not last Night. Mac and tgwbs were suspected enough for the wolves to be happy to wait and see whether they could be lynched later.

Beleg knows the answer but he should obviously remain silent about it for the time being. I hope he himself will make the most out of his information."

Nogrod rose up and took a little walk to the pond.

"I'll just have a drink and will be back soon enough."

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna lightly chuckled. "Maybe you shouldn't have told us your survival strategy...your descendants will not be helped by that.

Just loud enough for Nogrod to hear, she added: "I think the wolves won't necessarily want to kill the loudest first, as they're ones who could quite easily get into trouble. And you still do not comfort me."

[Mithalwen]

"I do not believe that our survival to this day is based on fluke. I believe that our foes are cunning and our protectors astute. I fear that they may be prevented from protecting the same person twice running so that the life saved is but for another day. Given that our ordeal is likely to be of short duration, I think it is likely that the wolves decided to forgo a tactical assault and went for an obvious target. If the fate of the siblings is linked as Nogrod suggests - the possibility of a killing two bird withone stone may have counterbalanced the desire for a certain kill.

Also, if, as I suspect, there is at least one wolf who is an active participant in our discussions it may well suit them to pursue the quiet by day and the vocal by night. This makes sense to me know but despite the sleep I have had the care of our situation has fuddled my mind. While we will learn more by keeping alive the speakers, I think there is a wolf among them but which?

While it would be unjust to attack someone who is absent seeking for food as I did yesterday, the uncommon loquacity of Master Gil disturbs me"

Mithalwen sat back to ponder anew.

[xyzzy]

Now it would seem none of you know anything of basic statistics!

One of the most remarkable truths about our situation is that we have a much greater chance of winning each day if at the start of the day there are an even number of us alive. Plus, since the moment the wolves overtake us in numbers we've lost, the longer it takes us to reach that point, the better off we are.

I'm going to support not lynching anyone.