WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[Nogrod]

Nogrod opened his eyes and looked around him approvingly. Finally some discussion... and the smell from the pot... hmmmm. With that he rose and walked to the fire. After smellling the pot with delight he took his spoon and tasted the stew - as that was what it was now after the long hours of simmering.

"Good. You should take your share - all you meat-eaters I mean. This is delicious even if it would get better with some taters or seasoning.

But to bussiness then. I do disagree with you guy on the wisdom of trying to keep our numbers up and I clearly haven't made myself clear about my reason to chnge my vote yesterDay. So I'll give you a short reminder of them.

If you don't have a good idea of someone's guilt your voting is a shot in the dark and that means that on Day1 you're very likely to lynch an innocent and only hit a baddie with a considerable amount of luck, right? It's different if you have good reasons to vote for someone but that sadly is not the case most times on Day1 - like yesterDay.

Now people who don't take part in discussion are dangerous people to us as with them we will need to shoot in the dark everyDay they hang around as they don't give us a chance to look at their speeches and in the worst case not even to their voting - if they don't even vote, that is. The more Days we spend here the more dangerous they become. All of you who are old enough to have heard tales of villages lost in the werewolf-mania should know that.

Now if that kind of non-participator will be killed automatically her or his going away will reduce our numbers and if that one person is an innocent it hurts us considerably if we at the same time lynch other innocents ourselves - it's like giving the wolves an extra-kill voluntarily. So if we have no better candidate, if we have no good case against anyone else, lynching that kind of people is absolutely the wisest thing to do. And a silent person may be a wolf as well. It's not a lynch wasted anymore than lynching someone we don't have a good case against but just lynch for some feeling or whatever as people tend to do on Day1 in general.

And yes part of reason to change my vote was to save my life. And that's perfectly sensible thing to do. You know whom the wolves like to kill during the Night? Firstly known innocents, secondly those that people tend to trust or at least do not suspect. Whom they will not like to kill at Night? Firstly those whom they think can be lynched, secondly those who have suspected them - or one of them - strongly - yes, they can pull out the "that's a set up" -thing and kill the on who suspects them, but in the end that happens quite rarely.

So I thought yesterDay evening that I was pretty high in the list of wolves. As I had my strongest doubts on you guy I decided to give you a vote to show that I was serious about you and thence hoping that were you actually a wolf you would not wish to kill me then as it would point so clearly to you then. There seemed to be no way of changing the result anyway at that point whomever I would have voted.

Happily it seems to have worked to my favour the other way which I then hadn't any idea. It clearly has led some of you to suspect me and that's good for it may just mean that I can sleep my Night in peace without fear of being killed."

With that Nogrod smiled and then gave the stew a stir.

edit: x'd with Mac...

[Nogrod]

"By the way Mac, yes you interpreted my thoughts well enough. I do think our wolves are a bit diletanttish as you formulated it. Wise wolves would not go for the obvious kill on their first Night if there is a protector like Beleg around. Thinking that the wolves were really intelligent and managed to pick a good kill for them and Beleg just happened by chance to be on their way is totally unbelievable the odds being 1:11. But if there was a logic there it's lot easier to understand why they both picked the same person. But a wise wolf in that situation leaves the obvious and kills someone else. Like you Mac or the guy, you both would be cunning enough to pick differently were you the wolves and thence I'm not suspecting either of you very much right now. With the very same reasoning I'm also keeping Rikae, Lhuna and Mith outside my "most suspicious" list for the time being."

[Nogrod]

"Okay. Here's what I think right now before I need to take yet another nap."

Nogrod said as he was walking back to his blanket.

"I could bet quite a large sum of money for there being at least one wolf in the company of Isabell, Xyzzy and Gil. Lynching one of them would also keep the numbers of actual contributors to the discussion maximum and do away with one threat for the Days to come.

My only problem with that is that it looks like Turín is quite a sleepy person as well and if his fate is tied to that of Nienor we might lose them both by accidentally lynching Turín.

The second thing I'd wish to consider is the possibility of both wolves being in the list of three I gave. That I find highly unlikely. But from where do we start searching for the second one?

I think thast firstly I will dismiss from my search those who in no situation would have acted as clumsily as our wolves did last Night. That means I'm not going to go after Rikae, Mac or tgwbs. I have known them long time enough to know something of their capabilities.

That means that I have to reconsider what I said about Lhuna and Mith and also think about Brinn.

If I was ready to bet a large sum on one wolf being in the group of Isabell, Xyzzy and Gil, I'd bet a smaller sum for the other being found from the group of Lhuna, Mith and Brinn as I really can't see them both being found from the first group and as I really can't see Rikae, Mac or tgwbs as the ones wasting their kill last Night.

I know it's not good politics to suspect two thirds of people around you but that's what I have to do now. Four of the six I suspect are innocents. I just need to find out who they are.

But I'll give it some thought while I take my nap. I'm going to wake up before the evening turns into Night."

With that Nogrod laid his head to the ground and pulled his blanket over him.

[the guy who be short]

Guy scowled at Nogrod. "I understand your vote somewhat now. However, as Isabellkya says, we should look out for the interests of the group and not ouuselves as individuals. I find it frightening that your desire for self-preservation seems to override your desire to help the group and lynch somebody who may be a wolf.

Isabellkya's social approach to this lupine threat comforts me, and so I feel she is likely innocent. The others are difficult to judge. I would say Mac seems innocent also, for his reasoning about lynching the silent follows mine. Nothing anybody else has said has attracted my attention - which is, perhaps, the most deadly thing of all."

Guy glared at each of the others in turn. Unfortunately, he was no Galadriel: they could each hold his glance, and he could divine no guilt in this fashion.

[Nogrod]

"I heard that guy. And I must say I'm a bit concerned of your rhetorics here. I think you can hardly criticise me from not trying to do something to get us out of this mess we're in... Also my vote at that time was insignificant anyhow as there was no way to alter the end result.

But why you wish to make that kind of suggestions? That I wonder... that I truly wonder..."

Nogrod turned to his other side and readjusted his blanket.

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen spoke again at last. " I will consider all that has been said and will pass comment shortly. All I will say for now is that my unusual silence is not due to guilt but the fact that though our straits be dire there are other demands on me other than giving it consideration. "

The woman sighed and considered the words that had been spoken.

[the guy who be short]

Guy considered what Nogrod had just said. "I do not know why you are so sure that there is a wolf among those who contribute so little, Nogrod. However, what you say is true: if these people are wolves, their silence means they will likely live a long time, avoiding suspicion. It is dangerous to focus only on those who are loud; indeed, we are more likely to accidentally accuse the loud, for they say much more, which can be misinterpreted and lead to doom."

He paused for thought.

"This being said, I feel quite certain of your wolvery, dear Sir. Your wish to lynch those who will die anyway is wasteful. The upside, higher villager numbers, comes at the expense of not lynching any of our own suspects! The same could be achieved if everybody abstained from voting, so nobody was lynched at all. Village numbers could stay high for as long as possible, but in the end the Wolves would consume us all. Surely you can see that this way of doing things is madness? I feel that you cannot be unaware of this, and so I must conclude that you are a wolf, trying to mislead and gain trust as early as possible. If I am correct, this would lead me to believe that the quiet trio are in fact innocents, who you name in order to lead us astray. Your fellow wolf must, I feel, be in the Rikae-Lhuna-Mith-Brinn group. Of these, Brinn seems unlikely as you voted together yesterday, so the first three are most likely to be your fellow, in my view."

Satisfied, he sat back and waited for the others to air their thoughts.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod frowned and turned towards the guy.

"Do you have wax in your ears or is there something evil in your intentions? You said that:
"The upside, higher villager numbers, comes at the expense of not lynching any of our own suspects!"
Right. I have all the time said - and that is many times - that when there are no better choices, when there are no good cases or strong suspicions. Only then it is reasonable to lynch those we don't know anything or who are facing death anyway. As soon as one has a clue or a case it's surely more resonable to go with that.

These are so basic things that I'm getting more and more uneasy with you. Although I still think you more distracted by this sleeping curse than an actual villain just because of how I interpret the actions of last Night.

Had Saeros not died already I could bet you to be a cobbler of some sort... Maybe you're Androg then?"

[the guy who be short]

Guy scowled at Nogrod once again. "I did not say at any point that you have not tried to get us out of this mess. You have been most active. I said that your priorities seem to lie beyond group preservation and in personal preservation.

Now, though, I have just realised a flaw in my argument. For if you were a wolf, why would you vote for somebody you thought was a wolf in self-preservation. This doesn't make much sense. On the one hand, it points to your innocence, but on the other, you could have fabricated your reason for voting for me.

It is not strictly true that your vote was insignificant, as Mac had not voted yet, and you could have perhaps tried to convince him some more. This would probably not have worked though. There were also retractables; for example, Brinn could have been convinced to cast a useful vote. However, it was quite late at that point and so perhaps it was almost insignificant.

And now your vote is confusing me even more. You said you'd be willing to vote for Shasta, and yet you didn't. I would like this explained, because it seems as if you avoided the Shasta-bandwagon, which would lead to your name being associated with the lynching of an innocent. Why did you not vote for Shasta?

This vote is absolutely bizarre and I cannot claim to fathom it. My suspicion of you has fallen, because, while self-preservation is to be condemned, that does seem to be the only reason I can see for voting for me at such a time, and that would mean you were innocent. But the why-not-Shasta question haunts me, and I am now in a state of confusion.

I must vote in about four hours; I hope you have answered me by then."

Clutching his head, Guy receded.

[the guy who be short]

"But Nogrod!" Guy said heatedly "a random lynch is better than no lynch! A 2 in 11 chance of getting a wolf is better than a 0 chance of getting a wolf. At any point, it is always better to lynch than to not lynch."

He lay down for a nap, and he really meant it this time. He was snoring within seconds.

[Nogrod]

"You're right and you're wrong. Random lynch is better than no lynch as it gives you a chance of 2:11. Correct. But lynching someone who is about to die anyway gives you the very same possibility. Not more, not less. I have never suggested that we do not lynch anyone. That idea was your own fabrication. I have only said that with no better candidates we should try our "random"-lynch (2:11 chances) with someone who might die anyhow and thence not give the wolves a kind of extra kill...

About yesterDay's voting. Mac voted a minute before the deadline and I crossposted with him - and Brinn's vote came three minutes before the deadline while I was writing my own post. So there was basically no time to try and convince anyone over anything.

But why I didn't vote for Shasta? Well, let me ask you, why should I have voted for him? He was a goner one minute before the deadline whatever I did or did not. So basically my vote had no significance whatsoever - and as I had said earlier, I had nothing against lynching Shasta back then so his lynching was okay for me and thence I had no reason to try and change the things in any way (not that I could have done that in the first place). That's why I decided to try to help myself for the Night as I suspected you the most of those who had actually played on Day1.

So that was not personal priorities over the common preservation as I had no chance to make a difference in the lynching at that moment. It was an attempt at personal preservation after there was nothing I could do anymore to influence the voting-result.

But now I finally need my nap..."

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna opened her eyes again, but remained where she sat.

"As for the others...

"My suspicion of tgwbs has now diminished, with his explanation for his early vote yesterDay, and the sensible observations he has given toDay. But that thing with all those numbers...it's distracting, whatever it is. I don't know what it is, but if I did, I'm quite sure I would be hating it.

"Same goes for Rikae, who encouraged the numbers discussion. But otherwise I'm inclined to find her quite innocent, as she seems to speak her mind just as it is. Only one thing I wish to point out: We cannot be our own ancestors. It is one thing to consider the past in dealing with the present, but another to wholly rely on it. We who now live can choose to tread different paths from those who came before us.

"Mac hasn't said anything to make me more suspicious of him.

"Now for Brinn, xyzzy, and Izzy...they are complicated. I know I said we shouldn't limit ourselves to suspecting those who are quiet, but I didn't say we should drop all suspicion of them. Izzy had made a point to us about her vegetarianism, cast about some suspicion, but had not followed them up. Of them three, I consider her to have given the most substantial...speech. But even then it is not enough.

"Brinn summarised last Night's votes, and suspected the xyzzy-voters, but said nothing else. To me, she's the most suspicious of the three. I can't explain it. You could call it gut feel, I suppose.

"xyzzy is our Shasta of the Day, if I could put it that way. Could this mean he is likewise innocent? Or is he, now knowing Shasta was innocent, following his footsteps so that we would think he too is innocent?

"The Night draws nigh, and bed calls me. I shall cast my vote in a while, and for now give you all time to speak."

[Brinniel]

Brinn shook his head in disgust. All those numbers...he couldn't stand it. Finally, he snapped:

"Enough with the math and calculations! They are just confusing me rather than helping. Besides, an argument should be based off of words, not numbers."

Brinn shuddered.

"Now, I still find tgwbs and Nogrod to be suspicious, particularly for their votes yesterday, and I believe it's quite possible that there is a wolf among them. And with the heated debate that has gone on between the two earlier, I think it's most likely one or the other, not both. The question is, which one?

"Rikae seems to me sincere in her words, and gives off an innocentish vibe. However, I do disagree with her vote for Izzy. I find that when it comes to her questioning the Gifteds, Izzy is more confused than actually guilty."

EDIT: X-ed with Nogrod