Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Delegate of Amon Lanc

(only if it were some sort of competition between two teams of Dol Guldur to get the favor of Sauron or something like that).

Dol Guldur = Amon Lanc.

It's difficult to find reasons why those who got killed got killed before we know who killed them (wolves, bear, something else).
Anyway I think Legate's idea about Durelin getting killed because of trying to steal a wolf's role is improbable. That's on contradiction with the narration I think. "Spied on things which she should not have seen and got hung for it." Had it been like Legate suggested, I think Sauce might have written something that had something to do with stealing, I don't know.

The idea of competing wolf teams is interesting, but were there two teams, how big our chances of winning would be? There are at least two kills a Night, but then on the other hand I guess the wolves could kill the members of the another team as well.

Menel was killed by
a) a bear or something that is not on our nor the wolves' side
b) an assassin or something that is on our side
c) a competing wolf team
but there's probably just one of those (unless we have a ranger who prevented yet one kill, but I think evil team consisting of three separate groups [or two + someone who is on our side but has a licence to kill] would be too much). I won't even try to include Durelin's death to all this, as no one supposedly knew anything of the nature of her role.

So there's one of the following:
a) a wolf team & a bear
b) a wolf team & an assassin
c) two competing wolf teams

Option a) If there's a wolf team and a bear, Menel was killed by the bear and Rune by the wolves. This doesn't sound too improbable. Rune was an easy target for the wolves, as he didn't leave much tracks. If the bear couldn't decide who to kill on Night 1, s/he could have chosen Menel if not for a better reason, his spelling. Surely people have sometimes killed for even worse reasons.
If there were wolves & the bear, I don't think the wolf team would consist of as many as four wolves - there are anyway two kills a Night. Was this true, we had two wolves to catch anymore, and the bear (or can we win even if the bear's alive?).

Option b) Menel was killed by the assassin and Rune by the wolves. Rune may have been killed for the same reason as in option a, but I doubt an assassin would have had such a bad reason to kill as spelling. Thus, the assassin should have suspected Menel already yesterDay - but s/he hasn't necessarily spoken about it at all. Concerning this:

Originally Posted by Boro

I am leaning to think that whomever disposed of Menel is on our side . . . Obviously it was someone who was highly suspicious of Menel all day, disappointed he wasn't lynched, and so decided to take care of what the village failed to do during the day.

It sounds like you're saying the one who killed Menel suspected him loudly yesterDay. I'm certain the assassin wouldn't want to attract the wolves' attention this early - unless what we call assassin is a Hunter-like role who is sure s/he knows a wolf (or rather like Rune's assassin/spy role in the last game). So yes, I agree with your idea, but just in case someone understood it wrong (like I did when I read it for the first time), I'd like to make it clear the assassin probably wasn't among those that suspected Menel the most in their posts.
Anyway, if we're having an assassin around, there are probably also four wolves and a cobbler. If not, the teams would be unbalanced.

Option c) Two competing wolf teams would be an interesting choice. But the teams couldn't probably be very big - only two wolves / team I guess (three wolves / team would make six wolves, and that's way too much). Rune was killed by the team of Menel, Menel by the other team. This would mean one team still has two wolves, while the wolf of the other team stands alone.
I guess the teams don't know each other. I can't see why they should know. But it would be really interesting to see how a Cobbler managed with two competing teams (though probably there wouldn't be one).

I'm sorry if this is a complete mess (and here's anyway something missing, as I didn't include Durelin in the whole thing). I'll try to come up with something more useful later.

[Volo]

Nice stuff Aganzir A bit of a repeat, but clearly put.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The idea of competing wolf teams is interesting, but were there two teams, how big our chances of winning would be? There are at least two kills a Night, but then on the other hand I guess the wolves could kill the members of the another team as well.

This is however something I'd toss aside quite quickly as it was already used in Gil-Galad's game.

Originally Posted by Sixth

Kath: 'Too innocent', Volo? What does 'too innocent' mean? I think she has good additions and analyses and makes nice deductions.

I don't trust my feelings. Read more in some of my first posts, or about any of my posts.

I am feeling more and more paranoid about Nogrod... Well, it's just a feeling...

[Aganzir]

I know, I just felt I had to organize my thoughts somehow.

I'm off to eat something now.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Volo

This is however something I'd toss aside quite quickly as it was already used in Gil-Galad's game.

Well, that it has been used earlier doesn't mean it can't be used again.

Originally Posted by Volo

What can be done at the moment: Find who might have suspected Menel enough to kill him, if it's not a Bear,

Well, I think that's not much of a good idea. If it's not a Bear, it's most likely an innocent assassin (nice combination of words) who is on our side, and an innocent certainly wouldn't want him to be discovered. Only a wolf (and not even a bear, since the answer would be himself) would advice such a thing. Should I start suspecting you, Volo?

Now to the debate of possible enemies. As we were speculating about two Wolf teams, I'll also note Mith's words from yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I have had a look at the narrative and the only firm conclusion I drew was that there is more than one gifted "those among you", and more than one wolf - probably more than two since, I think it would be unusual and technically incorrect ot use some when referring to two. Two wolves in such a large village would be suprising but there is a precedent

It's quite interesting now, because as Aganzir said, if there were two wolf teams, I'd also expect no more than two wolves in each. Could it be possible that Mith were a member of one of these two teams and, having just one colleague, was "testing water" for what's around? I know, it will be pretty stupid for a Wolf, since they'd risk getting the other team's attention, as well as informing the village that they are just two. If it were not just a "scream of wonder", it's probably just another of my unbelievable constructs.

But actually, personally I feel still closest to the possibility that we have wolves (three?) who killed Rune, a Bear who killed Menel, and Durelin who was killed by Wolves in turn. About the "spying" thing, you are right, Aganzir... but why is then Durelin named a "thief" and not a "spy"? Also, how would you explain the things from collected from thefts in her house? The most logical explanation, in my opinion, would be then that she was something like a thief/spy, using one of two abilities every night, like it was in Rikae's game with Lommy. And it would be either stealing or spying someone (like a Seer?). If this were true, then it might actually help us with several things: the roles and the explanation of yesterday's kills. You see:

• Either Durelin had just a spying ability and in that case we probably have lost our Seer Apart from that I really hope it's not the case, I don't even find it likely, since thief is thief and generally is not much interested in helping others.
• Or she had this "combined" ability (it'll be quite good to be able to learn people's roles in combination with stealing them). The uses might have been even limited. In that case, I'd suppose at least one more "ordinary" Seer on our side, but to balance it, a Werebear. I think this will go together nicely, since Durelin wouldn't also be 100% "good" in this case, as well as the Bear.
• Durelin could simply "steal", which, as you pointed out, is not much logical, as the narration indeed speaks more about watching something. In this case however, we could expect another role of some sort of assassin on our side to counterbalance Durelin's, slightly havoc-creating, role.

In the cases #1 and #3, I'd presume the existence of an assassin as likely (unless we have the party of combined roles like the last time, like thief/spy, ranger/assassin, whatever else). In #1 it would probably mean then that we are not having the "normal" Gifted roles (Ranger, Hunter, Seer) but some little twist (Assassin instead of R or H, Thief instead of a Seer). However, as I said earlier, I don't think it probable. In case #2, it will be logical that no assassin exists and then that it was a Bear who killed Menel. And it actually seems the most logical to me, because both the words of "thief" and "spying" point to some sort of a "mix role".

So that's about it. I hope it won't distract from hunting Wolves, but just my thoughts on that matter, and I think it might be useful. Even more we'll know tomorrow ( ). Will be back yet.

[Rikae]

Well, I am completely baffled at this point. A few random thoughts:

If Durelin had some sort of seerish ("spying") ability, isn't it highly likely Kath is guilty? Oh, well. Maybe she used that strange vote for cover of some kind...but still, it's the closest to a trail we have for her. I will have to go over Kath's posts with a fine toothed comb...so to speak...

Hmmm. Kath's reasoning on Lommy bothers me. Indecisiveness? "It could be this or it could be that"? Hasn't there been a phrase coined already..."Lommy flip-flopping" -? It seems too easy, to call Lommy "one to watch" for this reason..

I also have to disagree vehemently on Boro and Menel's arguing. One of my first thoughts on learning of Menel's wolvishness was that that little exchange had wolf-on-wolf argument written all over it. I will have to go back and see if I can be more specific- but it felt rather planned.

Aganzir's analysis makes no sense whatsoever, since she leaves out Durelin's killers. Um...somebody killed Durelin...I absolutely don't understand making a whole analysis based on the premise there were two kills, when there were three....

Menel's posts might be our best lead today. Sixth's treatment was far too simplified and inconclusive.

One more thing...Legate does not feel right, and I'm keeping my eye on him...and Izzy is working from the fly-under-the-radar wolf textbook, doing the minimum, posting vote counts & in character banter...

I'll try to look into things more in depth later toDay.

Giving off bad vibes:

Kath
Izzy
Legate
Boro
Aganzir

Slightly uneasy about:

Nogrod
TGWBS - Who seems oddly quiet, and should speak up.
Gil-Galad - Who is completely silent!
Mith
Morm
Sixth

Haven't tripped any alarms for me (possibly suspicious for that reason!):

Fea
Lommy
Volo
Shasta

There are several people who are managing to escape notice, and that's disturbing. We ignore someone at our peril.

EDIT: X'd with Leggy.

[Rikae]

Legate's last post actually feels quite innocent and reasonable; I'm more inclined to trust him now.

[Kath]

I'm slowly getting on with analysing yesterDay, but there are a couple of points Rikae brought up I wanted to answer:

If Durelin had some sort of seerish ("spying") ability, isn't it highly likely Kath is guilty? Oh, well. Maybe she used that strange vote for cover of some kind...but still, it's the closest to a trail we have for her. I will have to go over Kath's posts with a fine toothed comb...so to speak...

We started with a Day phase and usually any Seerish kind of activity takes place at Night so I think it rather unlikely that Durelin had any extra information at all, let alone on me.

Hmmm. Kath's reasoning on Lommy bothers me. Indecisiveness? "It could be this or it could be that"? Hasn't there been a phrase coined already..."Lommy flip-flopping" -? It seems too easy, to call Lommy "one to watch" for this reason..

No. Lommy is usually decisive within a post, and then by the time the next one appears she's changed her mind on a lot of things. That's flip-flopping. What I saw was her humming and hawing over people and not coming to any real decisions. To me this looks odd.

[mormegil]

++Kath

Kath is Kath and generally I'm happier if she is simply dead, plus she deserves it.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, I think that's not much of a good idea. If it's not a Bear, it's most likely an innocent assassin (nice combination of words) who is on our side, and an innocent certainly wouldn't want him to be discovered. Only a wolf (and not even a bear, since the answer would be himself) would advice such a thing. Should I start suspecting you, Volo?

I said something like that? *slap* My mistake. We could all think about that quietly.

Originally Posted by Kath

We started with a Day phase and usually any Seerish kind of activity takes place at Night so I think it rather unlikely that Durelin had any extra information at all, let alone on me.

But she would dream of you last Night. Whatever she did, she probably caused her own death by it, targeting a Wolf. That is why you are suspicious, Kath.

Hmm...