Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[mormegil]

Trust me or not I do not care but Mith is innocnet I tell you. Now on to Fea another one I can read a bit better than most

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Votes from yesterday:

Durelin -> Kath
Kath -> Rikae
Menel -> Xyzzy
Fea -> Xyzzy (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy2)
tgwbs -> Durelin (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy2, Durelin1)
Rune -> Durelin (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy2, Durelin2)
Volo -> tgwbs (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy2, Durelin2, tgwbs1)
Aganzir -> Shasta (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy2, Durelin2, tgwbs1, Shasta1)
Shasta -> Xyzzy (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy3, Durelin2, tgwbs1, Shasta1)
Mith -> Menel (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy3, Durelin2, tgwbs1, Shasta1, Menel1)
Boro -> Menel (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy3, Durelin2, tgwbs1, Shasta1, Menel2)
Rikae -> Xyzzy (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy4, Durelin2, tgwbs1, Shasta1, Menel2)
Legate -> Menel (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy4, Durelin2, tgwbs1, Shasta1, Menel3)
Xyzzy -> Menel (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy4, Durelin2,, tgwbs1, Shasta1, Menel4)
Isobellkya -> Xyzzy (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy5, Durelin2, tgwbs1, Shasta1, Menel2)
Nogrod -> Menel (Kath1, Rikae1, Xyzzy5, Durelin2, tgwbs1, Shasta1, Menel5)

Okay, I missed a vote for Menel somewhere. Will edit momentarily.

Edit: WAIT A SECOND. There was a tie yesterday! What happened?

[Isabellkya]

What do thieves do; are they a sort of tracker?

The main reason I voted for Xyzzy was because it was the first name which popped into my head for questionable behavior. When I posted my vote for Xyzzy; about eight (I don't know the exact number,) or so new posts popped up. We can't change our votes; and how was I supposed to know that Menel was/is a baddie?

Anyways, I will post something more constructive in the morning. I am having a hard time controlling my yawns right now.

[Boromir88]

I'm wondering about the night time activities that took place and here's my input.

And those that she had spied on had summarily executed her for it.

This is Durelin's death, and the word 'those' makes it seem as if there were multiple people Durelin had spied on. So, I agree with Nogrod, that Durelin had been spying on the wolves and it was the wolves that took care of her.

Which leaves who killed Menel and Rune? Yesterday, I talked about the role of the bear. It was actually the first village my family was in, SpM was in that village to, and if I remember he was quite fond of the bear. Now in that village it was the 'Black Beorning' who was virtually a lone wolf, with a night kill and only one if he/she was the last one standing. Rune had been rather gruesomely killed, I wonder if we have a Black Beorning in the village?

Menel had also been gruesomely taken care of, though right now I am leaning to think that whomever disposed of Menel is on our side. Maybe an assasin type character? Obviously it was someone who was highly suspicious of Menel all day, disappointed he wasn't lynched, and so decided to take care of what the village failed to do during the day.

Nogrod, good point about The Sixth's votes, I was making some comments about those who voted for Menel and Isabell's vote for xyzzy which stuck out the most to me.

Shasta, you missed Sixth's vote for Durelin, but xyzzy and Menel did end up in a tie. There are no double lynchings in this village (as that old quack wizard told us we must choose 'one'), and I think whoever gets to the most votes first (in this case 5 and xyzzy) is the one that goes in the event of a tie.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Originally Posted by Izzy

The main reason I voted for Xyzzy was because it was the first name which popped into my head for questionable behavior. When I posted my vote for Xyzzy; about eight (I don't know the exact number,) or so new posts popped up. We can't change our votes; and how was I supposed to know that Menel was/is a baddie?

Whoah, just a second. The first name that popped into your head? Do you mean to tell us that you took that little amount of thought to your vote that late in the day, when it was so important? It basically saved Menel. I'm sorry, but you're still on my list of suspects...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so here we go. This village indeed seems to be a bloodbath ground, and we have four (!) people less just on Day 2. Of course, it was probably just a coincidence, but even then. Now a debate has been started here, I think quite rightfully, what we can make out of it.

From my point of view, I think we can assume from the narration the following:

• There was surely one kill by the Wolves (unless we have seven hundred assassins in the village and the Wolves' kill was blocked by some Ranger), probably Rune (?) I think the reason was that he seemed quite innocent in profile (some people mentioned him). So this one would be a typical nightly kill.
• There was a kill by, well, I'd suppose a Werebear - first, it's the most logical, second, in the Anduin Vales a Beorning is quite a nice requisite, third, it's only logical that in such a big village there'll be something more than just Wolves (unless the number of Wolves will be more than 3, but from the number of kills I think statistics speak for more than one baddie with a kill, no matter how many the wolves are). Or, now another idea occured to me, what if there were more Wolf teams? It will be also a possibility, though not as nice going with the narration as the Bear, but still...(?) I don't know about this one. I'd say, by logic, that this kill would be Menel, and I think it will be a good Werebearish behavior to "test water" on killing Menel, because be he a wolf or not, it will be a good kill for Werebear, since all would be his enemies, no? In case of multiple Wolf teams, the kill would be even more logical (the one party might think that Menel is a Wolf, as many people did here, and simply kill him, or only for the reason to cause confusion by elliminating the second favored suspect of yesterDay).
• The death of Durelin could have been just a coincidence of the Wolves going against her, as I think Noggins brought here, but I think the formulations (boldening mine):
  

  And those that she had spied on had summarily executed her for it.

  Spied on things which she should not have seen and got hung for it on Night 1

  imply that the death was "triggered" by her choosing someone for the target of her nightly activities. So then we'll actually have Wolves' kill (probably Rune), then someone other's (Bear's? Another Wolves'?) kill (Menel) and the Wolves' (or someone's of whom there are MORE THAN ONE => "those that she had spied on") kill of Durelin, meaning that probably these were the Wolves.

This are, in my opinion, the most logical views on what happened, though it's just my thoughts, so feel free to raise objections.

Whatever way it is, I think we can obtain quite a lot of information from the kills, being so many. I'm going to look through it and post something about it later.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay. Going through yesterDay:

The first ones to speak were Kath and xyzzy. Xyzzy is dead and innocent. Kath now is not, and I don't know how to feel about her. It might be xyzzy was right, or might be that Kath is just an innocent. Even from ToDay's posts I can't say anything that will sway my opinion on her more to the "good" or the "bad". She voted Durelin yesterDay, but if my theory is correct and the death of Durelin was indeed just simply "triggered", Kath didn't have necessarily to have any active part in it. Of course then, Durelin might just have targeted Kath with her nightly activity because of that (or partially because of that), but she might have targeted also someone else for another reason. The problem is, we don't know what exactly Durelin's ability was, though the most logical to me now seems that she had something like stealing other peoples' roles, but if she wanted to steal a Wolf's role, she instead was killed (it will be logical: you can steal e.g. a sword from a Ranger and so become a Ranger yourself, but you can't steal "wolvishness" from a wolf). I don't know if this leads anywhere, but again, if I'm correct, then I'd suppose Durelin targeted someone who seemed "interesting" to her and possible a Gifted, but lo, he turned to be a Wolf. It could have been as well Menel. But once again, this is pure speculation from my part and too many assumptions. The biggest problem is definitely, as someone mentioned here, that Durelin didn't say almost anything yesterDay. Had she spoken more, we could've used it.

Others who have joined the discussion later, were Shasta, of whom I am ambivalent pretty much similar as with Kath.
Rune is dead and innocent.
Noggins... well, as what I said before about his sneakiness, at the end of yesterDay and particularly his vote for Menel speaks somewhat better of him, as well as what he said toDay. His stances in the starting discussion were with Menel, but his later behavior seems better. I'm still not sure about him, but I feel better about him now.
The next to join in the discussion was Rikae. She has been suspected by Kath, but personally, I don't see anything wolfish on her. Her discussion with Boro was quite a "normal" starting discussion, and it felt quite Rikae-ish. For this, I'm leaving her be for now.
About Boro I feel quite good because of how he went against Menel right here on the start. I also wouldn't say he'd be a Werebear if we have one, since he was the first one to mention the possibility of having a Bear. Of course then, if we had two Wolf teams, his going after Menel will be something else (if they were opposite teams) and the Bear idea will be leading tracks away. But again, based on the narration I don't think two wolf teams are probable (only if it were some sort of competition between two teams of Dol Guldur to get the favor of Sauron or something like that). So I'm leaving Boro be as well.
Isabellkya seemed quite sinister from the very beginning. Her quasixyzzy (now spell this, Kath ) behavior could have been expected, but I spoke about her absences yesterDay. Also, it's nice how she appeared in the right moment to save Menel. Though it might have been unintentional, it surely casts not much nice light on her.

Huh. It's quite a lot of it for now, so I'm ending here. I'll be back yet, but later.

[Volo]

Now declaring to vote in random (or random with a method) is the worst case. The second worst of the kind is to say you have a principle and you will follow it to the end like saying "I always vote for the loudmouths because I don't like to read so much" or whatever. Like Volo in a way seems to be doing and Menel in a way as well. When asked why did you vote for X you can always say "the principle I gave demanded it from me". The problem with this is that you kind of outsource the responsibility of your decisions to a principle.

Nogrod, thank you for pointing this out. Somehow I managed to forget this.

What I did yesterday was worse than the second way, it was pretty much of the forst case. A random throwaway vote. First of all because I didn't believe that tgwbs would be lynched. And that being the week side of my method, people won't take me seriously. And just on a side note, the "oppositism"-method would be a great cover for a cobbler, at least a cobbler that has some skill in the business.

The "logic" I use applies only to my own thoughts. I have a history of lynching only innocents with my own ideas. But I do believe that there are people who do find the Wolves.


To the game itself:

First I thought that there wouldn't be a Wolf hiding in the xyzzy voters. As I didn't think Menel was a Wolf and xyzzy was an easy lynch. Wolves could easily stay out of the frey.

Well, now that we find that Menel was a Wolf after all, it changes everything and there might be Wolves all over the place (i.e. voting both xyzzy and Menel.

I find Izzie's and Nogrod's votes the most interesting at the moment.

Izzie could well vote so to save a follow friend. At the same time using her newcomerness as a shield but then making a mistake in jumping out to save a friend.

Nogrod has admited using this trick earlier, to vote for a fellow Wolf and to make a tie just after another Wolf votes for somebody else to put him into the front. Well, anyway, to do like happened now.

Though Nogrod looks more suspicious than he usually does (his wierd first post and his first post on Day2 that moves the discussion to the roles and not who's guilty), I'll not throw him into the depth of the "suspicious"-list. (This because of the Wisdom).

I guess same goes with Izzie...


And on the contrary, Kath feels a bit too innocent...


EDIT: Xd with Legate