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#1 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Back again from the May 1st... And how interesting this is getting! And as Spm said, I feel the tide turning after many arduous Days and Nights. Let's figure this out!
My first thoughts: let's lynch Eomer who even himself kind of admitted (that's the new wolf stategy - being absent and then saying "I don't mind but love to see you take the toil of it"). Anyhow that would probably kill a wolf and thence relieve Kitanna as she clearly might then be our helper in our success. Okay, the vampires might kill her then but there are lots of other targets for them as well (myself, Rikae, Boro, Mac). So everything's open for the future after that. And good work ranger and shade! One thing that caught my eye was that the narration led us understand that it was the same person that the shade and the ranger protected. So it might not have been Rikae as Rikae was defended last Night already? This would say the vamps were not after Rikae last Night. So Kitanna, you might consider telling us who did you cover last Night as you have now revealed yourself anyhow! I know why you wouldn't, but just think of the spirit of the winning on the side of the goodies! And possibly we win this with your help toMorrow without you needing to go down (they might wish to kill Rikae, myself, Mac, Boro instead). The information would be nice as I think the Ranger should lay low as s/he has so far at this moment a reason not to reveal whom s/he protected. Yay ranger! You're driving those baddies mad! Kudos! Edit: X'd with a few... + added a few "s" to where they belonged... + made sense of a sentence that had none before... (the last one before the Kudos! -one)
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 05-01-2007 at 02:51 PM. |
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#2 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Kitanna speaks the truth = Eomer is a vampire.
------- Kitanna lies to us = Eomer is or is not a vampire. In that case we waste one kill (Eomer) but as we have so many known innocents (at least three) we can afford to trust that so much as to try it out this way. I mean the shade helped us last Night (according to the narration) and thence wished us good - as that is reasonable anyhow - and so far Kitanna is the only one to have voiced it... But let's us not leave the discussion here! If Eomer indeed is a vampire that opens all the discussion from Day1 votes again! And the situation changes...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#3 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Woo.
++Eomer Let's see.... this post may not make a lot of sense, because I'm leaving in... fifteen minutes to go to work, but here goes: Confirmed Innocents: Rikae Nogrod Macalaure Boromir Shade: Kitanna Would it make sense to say that all of yesterday's Legate voters are innocent?
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#4 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Lommy is innocent.
++Eomer. |
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#5 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Erm, guys? Didn't Eomer just admit he's a Vampire, more or less?
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#6 |
Psyche of Prince Immortal
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i missed half the day and we alreayd bagged ourselves a vampie and possibly one more!
after Legates death, who is a vampire, i still want to incline to my theory before, but now Shasta doesn't seem that vampirish, and if Kitanna is right and Eomer is the vampire then we are good to go In Kitanna we trust ++Eomer (OOC: for fear of not coming back on, it is my bros b-day, i vote now) Xed: with Sixth
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Love doesn't blow up and get killed.
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#7 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Yeah, why not...
++Eomer of the Rohirrim |
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#8 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Upgrading as I think this...
I agree with lynchig Eomer toDay.
But let us not be too hasty with it to subdue any other discussion. We still have the third Vampire around and s/he should not slip us! So I come back to this: Day3 Di: Glirdy (Glirdy 1) Xyzzy: Nogrod (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1) Gil: Shasta (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1) Sixth: Durelin (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1) Esspiem: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 1) Rikae: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 1, Spm 1) Shasta: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Spm 1) Boro: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Spm 2) Lommy: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Spm 3) Kitanna: Eomer (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Spm 3, Eomer 1) Rune: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 3, Spm 3, Eomer 1) Aganzir: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 3, Spm 4, Eomer 1) Durelin: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 4, Spm 4, Eomer 1) Mac: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 4, Spm 5, Eomer 1) Nogrod: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 4, Spm 6, Eomer 1) No votes: Glirdy (dead innocent), Legate (dead vampire), Eomer ----- According to Boro (a known innocent) Legate (a vampire) received 5 votes and not 4 as was told! According to the stated voting Spm got 6 votes and not the 5 / 4 he might have actually received. According to the information toDay, the shade was helping us innocent villagers... so we should take Kitanna's word for her vote as given at this moment. If you look at the tally it means that Rikae, Boro, Mac and myself voted for Spm. And as we have no reason to lie at this point (I as a hunter voted indeed Spm) it looks like Spm had four votes at least. But Legate had actually 5 votes as a known innocent claims it to be so! Spm, Shasta, Rune, Durelin voted for Legate - it's four votes and there is then one missing... So they are innocent as well? Probably they are... as we need the innocent people to vote. So what say you Aganzir? Your vote might have just fitted in before Spm got his... ![]() I need to think this more carefully again but this far I might say our vampires are Eomer and Aganzir. The Day1 voting needs to be seen again, though. I can see Eomer twisting that thing with one but with two? Then it leads to Kitanna... But lynching Eomer will give us a lot of the answers to begin with. EDIT: X'd with a few...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 05-01-2007 at 04:02 PM. Reason: I said we still have the fourth vampire around instead of the third... see how suspicious I am with these... ;) |
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#9 |
Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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++ Eomer
Also I'd like to say I did NOT attack Rikae on Night 3. In fact I tried to kill Eomer in the night, but it appeared he had been protected from my attack. As you may have guessed I protected Rikae last night. Since there's a good chance of my own demise tonight, I am looking for thoughts on who the third vampire may be. I can't protect anyone tonight and I'd hate to think a dream may go to waste, but I can attempt to kill the third vampire if, as a village, we can reach a general consensus.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#10 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Quote:
But to complicate things again... Quote:
But that's a question I might hope some contributions of you others.... I stil think voting Eomer toDay is a good idea (solves at least a couple of riddles), but there seems to be discrepancies still... I try to think more of them tomorrow (RL) as now I'm off to sleep...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#11 |
Haunting Spirit
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Ozark, MO
Posts: 53
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Well, that's easy.
++Eomer. Hmm... hopefully the night will reveal for sure who the final vampire is. |
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#12 |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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I think Rikae's a wolf.
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#13 | ||
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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![]() Quote:
The only other possibility is that he is the Shade and has taken the side of the Vampires. Unlikely, given that this would make Kitanna a Vampire and she was the one who outed him. In any event, if this is the case, we simply lynch Kitanna toMorrow and still have numbers on our side. Quote:
No one has indicated that they lied about their votes for Menel (7 stated - but one was Legate's - 5 received) or me (6 stated, 5 or less received). Which suggests that the remaining Vampire claimed to have voted for Menel on Day 2 and me on Day 3. The only non-known innocents to vote for Menel (other than Legate) were Rune, Aganzir and me. The only non-known innocent to vote for me was Aganzir. So the Celuien votes suggest that Aganzir is not a Vampire, while the votes for me suggest that she is the only one who could be. Aaargh! It is, of course, possible that someone was lying about their vote for Rikae and/or that someone was lying about their vote for Celuien. But why would they do that if Aganzir is the third Vampire? Add to that a vote for Legate still unaccounted for, and it seems that an innocent has been lying about their vote. But why? I'm stumped. It remains possible that Nogrod is the third Vampire, as that I think would fit with all the voting 'facts' that we know. But everyone has spoken since he first made his Hunter claim and again toDay, I think, and no one has sought to contest his claim. So, unless this 'real Hunter' is holding out on us (and why would she/he do so?), that cannot be the case.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#14 |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Where does xyzzy factor in to all of this?
What a marvellous cross-post. |
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#15 | |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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![]() Quote:
But then, surely now is the time for the real Seer (who, in this situation, has been keeping quiet in order to buy time) to step forward so that we can wrap this thing up?
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#16 |
Laconic Loreman
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Ok, so let's take it from this approach, and just start eliminating names to get the last wolf narrowed down as far as possible. So we have:
Gil-Galad The Saucepan Man Rikae Boromir88 Nogrod Thinlómien Aganzir Xyzzy Macalaure Diamond18 Shastanis Althreduin Kitanna Durelin Rune Son of Bjarne The Sixth Wizard Ok, so known innocents based upon revelations and seer dreams: Rikae Nogrod Kitanna Mac Boro Thinlomien Presumed innocent (and fairly sure they're innocent), based upon voting for Legate yesterday: Sauce Shasta Rune Durelin With one more being unknown. I honestly think that we should just forget about the Celuien votes, as evil vampire Eomer was behind that. So, I honestly think any attempt at trying to dissect it will just lead to confusion (as it already has today). Leaving: Gil Aganzir Xyzzy Diamond The Sixth Of those, based upon Nogrod's revelation as the lynch seer yesterday, the only one that would fit to being a vampire (since Kitanna - the shade- did not vote for Menel) would be Aganzir. Now, SpM, I think there are all sorts of possibilities and what not if Nogrod is messing with us, an innocent villager is lying about their votes..etc. But, I think we go with the practical answer that sitting right in front of us...and that is Menel received 5 votes, from 7 claimed...one vampire has been found, the other only one there we don't know about is Aganzir. Yesterday from the 6 claimed against SpM, he must have received at most 5...the only one we don't know about is Aganzir. So, I think since we have a big advantage in numbers we go for the practical and the person that's sitting right in front of our face we don't know about their identity and both times the votes didn't add up...that person of course is Aganzir. We lynch Eomer today and Kitanna, Nogrod, whoever go after Aganzir tonight. If Aganzir is not the last vampire, someone is pulling our leg and we need to start searching again. Edit: x-ed with several people
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Fenris Penguin
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#17 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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If Lommy is innocent it makes Spm gathering 5 votes.
That means the Legate must have acquired the same 5 votes before Spm. How is that possible? Spm was voted by 5 known innocents: Rikae, Lommy, Boro, Mac and Nogrod. So there has to be at least 5 Legate voters... The Legate voters were: Spm, Shasta, Rune, Durelin. So we're missing at least one here. Looking at the voting record (not that we can take it from the face-value as the vampires might have voted a lot earlier / later that they claimed they did) it looks like Aganzir's vote on Spm is the one that solves the problem (it fits well also with the way Eomer the possible vampire lied about the tally in the first place). Now you ask whether a first timer would have been so sneaky... I can tell you she might just as well be. She's no newcomew into this game. But let's lynch Eomer toDay and see how you other people react to this solution... Remember baddies, as a hunter I might say one thing and hunt the other one. EDit: X'd with Kitanna...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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