Werewolf XXXII: The Lost Age

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Given his weak case against her and her strong case against him, I am not sure at all that a Vampiric Nogrod would have chosen Roa as his kill.

Roa's strong case?

Saying something loudly and confidently doesn't make up a good case.

I would also wait for Rikae now (where are you?) as it's no use to put our energies to things we may know in a minute or two.

I'm going to be more active in an hour or two (after Lommy & her sis have left).

I'm still trying to think this a bit meanwhile.

And I agree with Spm here. It would have been very reasonable for a vampire to jump on the Menel bandwagon yesterDay if the vampire hadn't yet declared a vote. Someone who wouldn't have voted Menel at that time would have been looked at pretty closely toDay so the vampire was pretty much forced to vote Menel.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Noggers

Saying something loudly and confidently doesn't make up a good case.

Well, it seemed to me that she had some very good points. But, as you say, perhaps Rikae can clear this up ...

[Thinlómien]

It just occured to me that one extra reason (not a very important reason, definitely) for the vampires to kill Roa might have been to disprove Nogrod's theory about "ethical wolves". But I'm not sure if this holds water, since Roa's surely not the only person you could kill in order to disprove the theory...

[Rikae]

I'm afraid I can't clear up the SPM/Nogrod question...as I didn't dream of either of you, though both of you look at least slightly questionable to me.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy and Durelin

[Durelin]

Ah, so you didn't dream of anyone on that trio you listed. Should've known...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm afraid I can't clear up the SPM/Nogrod question...as I didn't dream of either of you, though both of you look at least slightly questionable to me.

Can you still tell who you dreamed about? I mean, if you tell about it early, people don't need to speculate about those people... Or do you see some reason not to reveal them now or not to reveal them at all?

[Boromir88]

It seems odd to me that Boro would stick to a Day 1 vote, particularly when his suspect wasn't even here toDay.~Durelin

True, usually I don't do that, but sometimes I back away from my instincts and it turns out I was right. Last records I have I quickly jumped on Lal (who was a wolf) but backed away as she smooth talked me, and couldn't pull the trigger until a few days later. Than long long long time ago I voted for Formendacil 3 straight days on the 3rd he was finally lynched and turned out to be a wolf...oh and neither time did I have any special knowledge of their wolvishness .

When I find something that comes to me as guilty I'm gonna go after it and I won't let up on Legate until I know for sure his identity...either until he turns up dead or if Rikae happened to dream him innocent.

Which leads me to asking Rikae to reveal her 2 known innocents. Any further info will be a great help. We are down to 18 and for today we have 1 already known innocent and potentially 2 more.

A quick comment to Thinlo regarding Shasta. This is the first time Shasta has been involved in WW with us, but don't think he's new at this by any means...post 203 for one example.

[Rikae]

Boromir88 and Macalaure are innocent.

[Durelin]

Hah.

[Durelin]

Mac's vote for Menel conveniently placed. And just a little bit before the votes for him started piling in, he states, "Though I would prefer Menel, I will rather vote Legate than see Boro or Nogrod gone." Seems very buddy-buddying to me, as well as a nice "vote in favour" of Menel without actually saying he's voted for him. And it's another "I'd prefer," not, "I think he's suspicious," or "I really think he's a vampire."

As far as I can tell, he didn't pay much attention to Menel at all before that.

I'm probably voting for Mac today. Though Boro is far from forgotten...Boro seems to be acting almost a little too odd to me to be guilty, though.

I'll be back with more a little later... Yes, you must suffer without me for a while longer....

[Macalaure]

I don't have very much time toDay, but I'll do what I can. Just a quick thing before I'm off to go through the thread again to see clearer.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Mac's vote for Menel conveniently placed.

Why was my vote for Menel more conveniently placed than SPM's, Nogrod's or Legate's?

Originally Posted by Durelin

And just a little bit before the votes for him started piling in, he states, "Though I would prefer Menel, I will rather vote Legate than see Boro or Nogrod gone."

I wanted to save Rikae while not getting Boro or Nogrod killed. Legate was the only one who had two votes, too, but Menel looked more suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Durelin

And it's another "I'd prefer," not, "I think he's suspicious," or "I really think he's a vampire."

"I'd prefer" means to me that I thought Menel more suspicious than Legate. They were both suspicious to a good degree. If I had gone with my top suspicion I would have voted SPM and thrown my vote away by it.

Originally Posted by Durelin

As far as I can tell, he didn't pay much attention to Menel at all before that.

He was my second best suspect on Day One.


I'm aware there's little point for a known innocent to defend himself. I'm just pointing out the above because it's hard for me to think this coming from an innocent mouth.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm aware there's little point for a known innocent to defend himself. I'm just pointing out the above because it's hard for me to think this coming from an innocent mouth.

*snort*

You just cannot imagine someone finding you suspicious... I still find you suspicious, but I guess I have to assume you're innocent.

Oh sigh.

But yes, actually - yours was more conveniently placed. Smack dab in the middle. Though trust me, I don't like SPM's vote, either. Nogrod, as the last vote, was needlessly piling it on. I see Nogrod's as in an inconvenient position, and so more innocent.

Actually, you could be right about SPM's vote. Still, your only argument is that your vote isn't any less conveniently placed than their votes, which doesn't mean yours isn't conveniently placed.

Whatever.

Hmm...I haven't voted for SPM in a while...oh wait, yes I have, nevermind....

[The Saucepan Man]

Typical! Just as I was beginning to think Mac looked suspicious, he turns out to be a known innocent.

Originally Posted by Di

I'm confused as to why someone who voted for Celuien would have lied about it. Only Innocents can vote, right?

No. The Shade can vote, as Aganzir correctly pointed out to me on Day 1.

Originally Posted by Di

So... why is it unlikely that Glirdy voted for Celuien and that's why there is an unaccounted-for vote? That seems to make the most sense, because it doesn't involve an innocent lying for no apparent reason.

Because Glirdy has not spoken a word since we started. I think it unlikely that he has cast a vote.

In any event, the Celuien vote thing reassures me about Eomer, Lommiella and Aganzir. I am, for now, going to work on the basis that they are innocent. And Rikae, Mac and Boro we know to be innocent (unless Rikae is playing a very dangerous game, a possibility which I regard as highly unlikely).

Originally Posted by Mac

Why was my vote for Menel more conveniently placed than SPM's, Nogrod's or Legate's?

It wasn't. Unless the Lynch Seer (if still alive) is able to confirm that the apparent votes for Menel match the actual votes for him, I think it fairly likely that either Nogrod or Legate (though probably not both) is a Vampire.

[Nogrod]

Thanks Mac for your point on Spm's interest in the vote tallies... I had already thought there was something that bothered me in them.

Originally Posted by Spam

As I see it, there are two possibilities. The first is that Eomer is a Vampire and told us that there were five votes for her in attempt to hide the fact that there were only three (as his would not have counted). However, that would require at least one of the stated Day 1 Legate voters also to be lying, since Celuien would have needed to be tied with him at least to have been chosen for death. I regard this situation as unlikely.

I'm not sure if I followed the argument well enough (I'll take a look at it in a minute) but as long as Eomer's chance of being a vampire rests on someone lying about voting Legate then the option is still on as I did lie about my vote to keep the vampires off my real thoughts then.

Now Spm didn't know that I had lied - and thence went on to try and cleanwash his buddy?

And he continued later on the topic:

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

In any event, the Celuien vote thing reassures me about Eomer, Lommiella and Aganzir. I am, for now, going to work on the basis that they are innocent.

Taken together all his discussions on the Celuien-voters looks like drawing a bit too lot of comfort from one quite unsure source of information. And why he keeps coming back to that Day1 voting stuff again and again unless it's something that works for his interests?

Originally Posted by Mac

Besides all this, I think that Rune is being strange.

Agreed. But I always find him hard to read. The only thing we know of him is that he at least wished people to look at him as the shade on Day1. Whether that was a joke of somekind or what, I don't know.

I see no good reason for anyone innocent to act like a shade.

I might see a reason for the shade to make his presence known hoping that both sides would then leave him be (but that's in dark contrast to our shade trying to kill Rikae last Night - although there were basically no chances in him succeeding in it anyhow, so why then even try?)

I might see a reason for one of the vampires to pose as the shade as well but then last Night's action would be quite too reckless from him.

EDIT: X'd with a lot...

[Durelin]

You know, I could see Saucie being the uber shade. I mean, everyone suspects him of being a wolf, vampire, whatever, all the time...but who would suspect him as a stand-alone shade, were-bear. It just seems so vastly different.

And I can see Sauce attempting to off Rikae, taking the risk of catching the Ranger "bluffing" so to speak.

Though I can see a number of people doing that purely out of their sense of humour.

Personally I find it hilarious that anyone would think the Shade would side with anyone, even for a limited period of time.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I might see a reason for one of the vampires to pose as the shade as well but then last Night's action would be quite too reckless from him.

An interesting possibility opened to me as I realised I had miswritten this last part... (and produced a totally stupid idea).

But what if Rune is a vampire posing as a shade and now our real shade who is leaning on our side wishes to expose him by making the shade look our enemy? Remember it was pretty safe trial to kill Rikae as she had been suspected a lot earlier so she very probably was not protected earlier.

It would make sense as - on contrary to Dury's idea - it seems pretty straightforward that the shade has best possibilities to win by aiding the villagers. It's only in the end when switching loyalties might help the shade.