Werewolf XXXII: The Lost Age

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm not sure whether I should reveal them or not.

You shouldn't take those names to your grave with you... THey will have at least toDay and toMorrow to be with us.

And yes. It looks like the shade was on you, which I find pretty troubling...

[The Saucepan Man]

Roa was almost cetainly killed because she was dangerous to the Vampires (so much for them being sporting, eh, Noggie ...). It is possible that it was also an attempt to set up Nogrod, although it is also possible that he is a Vampire and the Roa kill was a bluff to make us think he was set up. I’m not pursuing that train of thought until Rikae reveals her dreams, though, as it is quite possible that she dreamed of him last Night.

Now, this Celuien vote. With only Glirdy not having stated a vote for Day 1, four people claimed to have voted for her and yet the Night 2 Lynch Seer, Eomer, told us that she received five votes.

As I see it, there are two possibilities. The first is that Eomer is a Vampire and told us that there were five votes for her in attempt to hide the fact that there were only three (as his would not have counted). However, that would require at least one of the stated Day 1 Legate voters also to be lying, since Celuien would have needed to be tied with him at least to have been chosen for death. I regard this situation as unlikely.

The other possibility is that Eomer was telling the truth and that there were five votes cast for Celuien. In which case, either it was Glirdy who cast the fifth vote for her (unlikely) or one of those who claimed to vote for someone else was lying and actually voted for Celuien. In these circumstances, it is virtually certain that all those who claimed to vote for Celuien actually did vote for her and are therefore innocent. Unfortunately one of those, Roa, is dead. But it speaks greatly in favour of Lomiella, Eomer and Aganzir.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Now, this Celuien vote. With only Glirdy not having stated a vote for Day 1, four people claimed to have voted for her and yet the Night 2 Lynch Seer, Eomer, told us that she received five votes.

As I see it, there are two possibilities. The first is that Eomer is a Vampire and told us that there were five votes for her in attempt to hide the fact that there were only three (as his would not have counted). However, that would require at least one of the stated Day 1 Legate voters also to be lying, since Celuien would have needed to be tied with him at least to have been chosen for death. I regard this situation as unlikely.

I agree that this is unlikely... if Eomer were a vampire trying to "look good" I don't see this as a good plan, because the discrepancy is easily noted. Unless I'm missing something, the best tactic for a Vampiric Lynch Seer would be to just keep completely quiet about the subject.

The other possibility is that Eomer was telling the truth and that there were five votes cast for Celuien. In which case, either it was Glirdy who cast the fifth vote for her (unlikely) or one of those who claimed to vote for someone else was lying and actually voted for Celuien. In these circumstances, it is virtually certain that all those who claimed to vote for Celuien actually did vote for her and are therefore innocent. Unfortunately one of those, Roa, is dead. But it speaks greatly in favour of Lomiella, Eomer and Aganzir.

I'm confused as to why someone who voted for Celuien would have lied about it. Only Innocents can vote, right? So why would you vote for one person (as is your right as an innocent) but say you voted for someone else? So... why is it unlikely that Glirdy voted for Celuien and that's why there is an unaccounted-for vote? That seems to make the most sense, because it doesn't involve an innocent lying for no apparent reason.

[Thinlómien]

It indeed that the shade has taken the vampires' side, at least for now. That is not especially good news. Maybe he or she finds the baddies more intriguing - I mean, if I was the shade, I wouldn't necessarily be playing for the village, even though it'd be easier. I just hope he or she sees what is best to his or her own interest and changes sides... Or then he or she is just crazily switching sides from day to day just to amuse him/herself... Actually I wouldn't wonder if he or she was doing so...

edit: xed with SPM

[Thinlómien]

Sauce, I think Roa was killed because the vampires maybe thought that Rikae would dream of Roa (or that she already had).

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lomiella

Sauce, I think Roa was killed because the vampires maybe thought that Rikae would dream of Roa (or that she already had).

Yes, fair point. And she was under less suspicion than Noggie and me, the other two from Rikae's original dream possibilities. In fact, I am not sure that anyone really suspected Roa that much. Nogrod made a weak case against her, but that was seemingly mainly in response to her suspicion of him.

I have had a brief review, and Roa's other suspects appear to have been Gil and Durelin and, possbly, me. But her main suspect was definately Noggin.

Given his weak case against her and her strong case against him, I am not sure at all that a Vampiric Nogrod would have chosen Roa as his kill.

[The Saucepan Man]

Reviewing yesterDay‘s “voting record“, it is quite possible that one (or possibly even two) of the Vampires was at risk of being lynched before the votes for Menel poured in and so a Vampire took the opportunity to state a vote for Menel in order to turn the votes against him. After all, we were all waiting to see who the best “save Rikae” candidate would be. And, with the “save Rikae” candidate likely to receive a lot of votes, it would have been less risky for a Vampire to be caught among them.

Something worth considering, possibly, as and when we have more information on the Menel voting situation.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Given his weak case against her and her strong case against him, I am not sure at all that a Vampiric Nogrod would have chosen Roa as his kill.

Roa's strong case?

Saying something loudly and confidently doesn't make up a good case.

I would also wait for Rikae now (where are you?) as it's no use to put our energies to things we may know in a minute or two.

I'm going to be more active in an hour or two (after Lommy & her sis have left).

I'm still trying to think this a bit meanwhile.

And I agree with Spm here. It would have been very reasonable for a vampire to jump on the Menel bandwagon yesterDay if the vampire hadn't yet declared a vote. Someone who wouldn't have voted Menel at that time would have been looked at pretty closely toDay so the vampire was pretty much forced to vote Menel.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Noggers

Saying something loudly and confidently doesn't make up a good case.

Well, it seemed to me that she had some very good points. But, as you say, perhaps Rikae can clear this up ...

[Thinlómien]

It just occured to me that one extra reason (not a very important reason, definitely) for the vampires to kill Roa might have been to disprove Nogrod's theory about "ethical wolves". But I'm not sure if this holds water, since Roa's surely not the only person you could kill in order to disprove the theory...

[Rikae]

I'm afraid I can't clear up the SPM/Nogrod question...as I didn't dream of either of you, though both of you look at least slightly questionable to me.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy and Durelin

[Durelin]

Mac's vote for Menel conveniently placed. And just a little bit before the votes for him started piling in, he states, "Though I would prefer Menel, I will rather vote Legate than see Boro or Nogrod gone." Seems very buddy-buddying to me, as well as a nice "vote in favour" of Menel without actually saying he's voted for him. And it's another "I'd prefer," not, "I think he's suspicious," or "I really think he's a vampire."

As far as I can tell, he didn't pay much attention to Menel at all before that.

I'm probably voting for Mac today. Though Boro is far from forgotten...Boro seems to be acting almost a little too odd to me to be guilty, though.

I'll be back with more a little later... Yes, you must suffer without me for a while longer....

[Macalaure]

I don't have very much time toDay, but I'll do what I can. Just a quick thing before I'm off to go through the thread again to see clearer.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Mac's vote for Menel conveniently placed.

Why was my vote for Menel more conveniently placed than SPM's, Nogrod's or Legate's?

Originally Posted by Durelin

And just a little bit before the votes for him started piling in, he states, "Though I would prefer Menel, I will rather vote Legate than see Boro or Nogrod gone."

I wanted to save Rikae while not getting Boro or Nogrod killed. Legate was the only one who had two votes, too, but Menel looked more suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Durelin

And it's another "I'd prefer," not, "I think he's suspicious," or "I really think he's a vampire."

"I'd prefer" means to me that I thought Menel more suspicious than Legate. They were both suspicious to a good degree. If I had gone with my top suspicion I would have voted SPM and thrown my vote away by it.

Originally Posted by Durelin

As far as I can tell, he didn't pay much attention to Menel at all before that.

He was my second best suspect on Day One.


I'm aware there's little point for a known innocent to defend himself. I'm just pointing out the above because it's hard for me to think this coming from an innocent mouth.