Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Something about TGWBS bugs me. He says that Roa's first post is "trying to sound helpful without being helpful", and that phrase immediately jumped out at me. It's become sort of a stock-accusation that's easy to fling around, and doesn't really make sense so early in the game. It seems a little too generalized, and especially bothers me coupled with the suspicion toward Thinlomien for voting early (in my experience, she almost always does, and I think TGWBS knows that).

Firstly, I nowhere stated any suspicious of Thinlomien for voting early. Misrepresentation is a dangerous game to play, Rikae...

As for why I didn't like Roa's post, if I must go into detail to satisfy you, let's go:

She starts off talking about what roles might be in this village, how many wolves, etc. These are all thoughts that the rest of us should already have had and so there is no real point in saying that it's unlikely that there are more the 3 wolves.

She then says we have to be wary of people coming out as gifted because they may just be wolves. She casts doubt on whether we'll have a ranger/seer/hunter at all; I personally can't imagine that the village would be left without the first two at all. She also conveniently says that being uncontested is not proof of being gifted, and that greater proof is required. This strikes me as wolvish; she's striking down any revealed gifted before they even have a chance to reveal themselves.

She says this:

We don't know if we have a ranger though, so if we go a night with out a kill, we cannot assume that a person was protected.

So no kill means that the wolves just decided not to kill anybody? Why not come to the sensible conclusion that no kill = ranger? Why is she trying to make us doubt even this?

So, with that out of the way, we can stop worrying about roles which might not even be here, and just focus on catching wolves.

Which is what we were meant to be doing anyway. That whole post just seems to be filler, so we can see she's said lots of words. The words themselves seem to say little; the little they say, I construe as wolvish.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I also wonder why he wouldn't want a hunter to reveal

The way I see it, a Hunter is more likely to kill an innocent than a wolf. They're also unimportant on the grand scale; a seer can reveal wolves and innocents, a ranger can protect known innocents. A hunter can't really do much.

[Gil-Galad]

i fear i must vote now for i won't make the deadline too...

so today my vote must go to

++Thinlomien

[the guy who be short]

Whom I cross-posted with earlier.

For someone who thinks talking about gifteds is unhelpful, that's aboutall his posts have been. And that, for you people who think Day 1's are useless, is a contradiction.

Very shoddy basis for voting. Both those comments you mentioned (and there were only two) were in response to Mith.

No way helpful? You don't think it's helpful to point out that a wolf could easily hide as a gifted, especially in this game, and that we should be aware of it? Would you rather I wait until Day 3, when someone suddenly says "Wait, I'm a gifted!" and everyone panics and tries to find someone else to vote for?

No. No. And no.

We all know wolves can hide as gifteds, and I've already said I don't think this game is special or magical. I can't see us not having a Seer or Ranger.

Also I'd rather you didn't say anything at all. All that first post has caused is unnecessary speculation; I and others have been forced to reply to it and carry on with this useless role-speculation.

What was I doing? Perhaps you didn't read the full post. I systematically went over the possible roles, established what we could and could not do about them (mostly nothing),

And you don't count that as overspeculation about roles, eh?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ai! Steady now! I think this is going too far unnecessarily. Gnarl, if anyone values my opinion, this speaks for both tgwbs and Roa's innocence - at least concerning this matter, this discussion. tgwbs's defence seems too real, honest, you know what I mean. Roa on the other hand, I think - tgwbs, you might not see it, but - very very much reminds me of the "teacher syndrome". I have experience with it myself when teaching little Orcs, and I think this is just it. I absolutely see your point, tgwbs, but I think Roa just tried to point out something, even if it seemed obvious to you (to me, also), because she thought there might be people who wouldn't think of it. And she might be right. So no accusations based on this one from me, and I suggest you don't as well.

Oh, don't think that's all from me. Just had to step in, Whiteskins. I'll be back. Just need a quiet rest and time to think, curse you! *walks off to his hut and slams the door*

[the guy who be short]

I suppose Legate is right in this. Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.

This gives me 5 minutes to vote. I'm still not happy with Rikae misrepresenting me, but my accusation of Lommy stands. Will probably vote for her.

[the guy who be short]

++LOMMY

Fare well and vote wisely.

[Mithalwen]

With the usual caveat that you can never discount Roa as a wolf (and I am sure she would be insulted if we did), her post, at an early and extremely quiet phase, reminded me rather of my ill fated first post in my last game where with the absence of anything to discuss I stated the somewhat obvious as what I believe Americans call a "heads up". Two of the people who jumped down my throat for my innocent comments turned out to be wolves.

I really can't imagine what else there was to say at that point ..especially if you are not into the rpg side ...in fact had timezones been different I might have said similar things. Unless Roa is one of them the wolves would be delighted to get her lynched today so unless I see some evidence a heck of a lot stronger that "helpful without being so" I shall look more suspiciously at her accusers.

Yes seeming to be helpful can be an indicator but it more often applies to "empty analyses" - reporting the deeds of others without applying any insight or drawing conclusions.... Day 2 or 3 stuff.

[Nogrod]

Back then... Just a general point to begin with.

Originally Posted by tgwbs

All that first post (=Roa's) has caused is unnecessary speculation; I and others have been forced to reply to it and carry on with this useless role-speculation.

First post does not cause a flood but those who continue it. I can't see all the stuff talked here around Roa's post being only forced replies... But it has provoked interesting reactions to be sure. So it might turn out useful, not perhaps toDay but later in the game.

[Mithalwen]

Yay I am not alone!!!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Yay I am not alone!!!

No you aren't!

The votes and the outspoken reasons for them so far. I’ll come up with a word or two with them in a minute...


Lommy ++ Glirdan

Yes, Glirdan seems quite taking Rikae's point - which was not an accusation in my opinion - and turning it to an accusation while trying to make it seem that Rikae's with him there... Looks quite bad............
I'm going to vote him because he simply seems clearly the most suspicious of those who have posted this far.

Sixth Wizard ++ Glirdan

I can assure you I'm not doing such a thing to confuse you, unlike Glirdan, who may well be a bad guy.

Glirdan ++ Sixth

Voting for me on the pure fact that a few people are suspicious of me and that he agrees I'm suspicious. Alright and dandy. But no explanation as to why I'm suspicious? That worries me. Sure it's a Day1, but if you yourself are suspicious of someone, at least explain what you're suspicious of and not just say "Oh everyone else is suspicious and so am I." To me, that looks bad.

Roa ++ tgwbs

For someone who thinks talking about gifteds is unhelpful, that's aboutall his posts have been. And that, for you people who think Day 1's are useless, is a contradiction.

Gil-Galad ++ Lommy

but i got a little itch from Lommy's post... she just came right out and tried to defend Roa... could be a virtuous villager, but everyone should know that if they are an ordinary, they are on their own ......... so that makes me inclined to think that either Roa and thin are wolves... or our gifted...

tgwbs ++ Lommy

I am suspicious of Thinlomien for a number of factors. Observe-ye:
1.

I disagree. Talking about gifteds and all that this early is in no way helpful. They can also work things out for themselves. That Roa-post looks like it was trying to be helpful, but wasn't saying much that was helpful to the village.
2. Her accusations and vote for Glirdan. Seems to be on very shoddy evidence to me.
3.

Isn't that what Roa, who she defends, was doing?
4. Tradition!

So all in all that makes:
Glirdan 2
Lommy 2
The Sixth 1
Tgwbs 1

6/13 have voted.
1/13 has not been seen yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am back and I must say I spent a lot of time thinking about who these wolves might be. However optimistic I would like to be, I ended up being very pesimistic about the possibility we catch a wolf today. But as I said earlier, this does not mean giving it up, I am merely stating facts based on probability. Many images of a werewolf came through my mind. First it seemed it's Rikae in bright lycra suit, then it's a sort of small penguin-gal, then it must be a pack of dirty little wizards; or maybe it's all the lot together.

One of the other persons is Nogrod. He might be honest, though... there are several things which seem really alarming to me. He seemed playing too much of a "goodie" to me in his first post. And later then, I am naturally suspicious of people who make summaries. I didn't say that in the last game, because all my colleagues did that at that time But that's fact: a werewolf does best to make summaries for himself, so it does not take much effort from him to post them to others.

And Brinn. If I were a Wolf and were her (=person first time in a wolf role), I wouldn't probably do much until the end, which is exactly what she does. Though someone said here that accusing someone because of posting nothing-containing posts is silly now, I'd still want to point it out. She did it. Just to bring it to attention, if nothing else. Also, Nogrod seems to quite easily merge her with the other people who posted more, while I think that Brinniel didn't say that much, actually. This is exactly what the other wolves did to me when I was a wolf - putting me in one sack with other innocents, so that no one noticed.

That's what I had to share. Ponder it or not, agree with it or not, speak to it or not (but rather speak than not). I have spoken.

[Mithalwen]

Yes that is possible ... but what I meant is that ther has been so little activity and so many variables, that it is hard to post something substantial. Ordos know nothing - as someone pointed out - we are on out own. It leaves little but speculation and hypothesis based on previous villages which withthe best will in the world tends to be subjective.

It is dangerous to assume that becasue someone has a different style to us that they are guilty asn easy to be lulled into a false sense of security by someone who seems to think the same way as us.

Not that that helps.. we have very little time now...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Not that that helps.. we have very little time now...

We do have an hour and a half I presume? With daylight savings GMT is not the same as English time, remember? Or then I'm totally wrong and we are in a hurry.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I think that Brinniel didn't say that much

I didn't say much in my first post honestly because I didn't have much to say. I'm always puzzled on what exactly to write at the beginning of Day One, and it's a bit difficult to make analysis when there's few posts.

Only an hour and a half until deadline and I'm still not sure who to vote for. From my experience in the last game, the wolves often turn out to be the least suspicious ones on Day One. Of course, this is a different game, with different wolves, and a different situation. But I will still keep that thought in mind...

Anyways, I'm pretty certain on the people I will NOT be voting for:

Glirdan: Yes, his behaviour earlier was a bit odd, but too often the ones who seem so obviously suspicious turn out to be innocent. I don't think we should be too quick to vote for him, not this early in the game.

The Sixth Wizard: His decision to bandwagon with Lommy's vote was a bit strange, but I do not think that his a reason to vote for him toDay. After all, he had no choice but to vote early due to time zone issues, and there was still very little to go off of at that hour. Plus, he is a newbie to this...and I know I would hate to be lynched on Day One of my first game. Besides...I'd like to hear more from him before becoming too suspicious.

Lommy: While she could easily be a wolf, it is too early in the game to tell. Like Sixth, she had to vote early on for a reasonable explanation, so I can't really judge her based on her vote selection. I would still like to hear more from her in the upcoming Days, and hopefully, she'll be able to stick around longer.

With that said, I will begin examining those who are not on the list above and look for any suspicious behaviour that will help me make my voting decision.

And as mentioned, xyzzy still has not shown up...and it appears he has not been active since Saturday. A bit of a disappointment since I was interested in hearing from him. Hopefully he'll show up sometime between now and the deadline..

EDIT: X-ed after Legate's last post.

[Mithalwen]

I know it is not "nice" and that it is cynical and if htey had logged on more recently I wouldn't have suggested it but I will seriously consider doing so if I don't become more certain of the guilt of the current votees .. I would rather vote for Xzzy for not being here than Sixth for being here but perhaps being a bit green and in a different timesone ot everyone else. And it is a common wolf tactic to kill the quietest person on Night one ot leave no clues...

It isn't ideal -especially as we could end up killing a gifted as easily as a wolf.

Without dissing the wolves of my last game - teh villagesrs were hog-tied by ordo drop-outs ... it is in that context I am suggesting this ruthlessly pragmatic course.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I didn't say much in my first post honestly because I didn't have much to say. I'm always puzzled on what exactly to write at the beginning of Day One, and it's a bit difficult to make analysis when there's few posts.

Ai, this reaction quite eased my suspections on you. I might say this is what my ears wanted to hear. Alright, I'll leave it for now.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

It isn't ideal -especially as we could end up killing a gifted as easily as a wolf.

Assuming xyzzy is not a Gifted himself

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This one worries me greatly. It sounds like he's downplaying what he had said this Day to just being a loudmouth and calling attention to himself. It seems like it's meant to suggest we shouldn't look at his words in detail because it's all just volume.

You think so? Well, I thought about it when tgwbs took my intervention quite well that he maybe adopted this idea too quickly - but on the other hand, something really seemed honest on all of this. So if for something, I wouldn't suspect him for that.

EDIT: X-ed with all except Mith from my last post.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Roa

Normally, when someone comes out as a gifted, we don't know if they're telling the truth or not, and all we have is that no one else is saying "No, they're lying- it's really me!" In this game, we don't know if we even have gifted, let alone being able to tell if a "revealed gifted" is lying or not. Remember- we don't have retractable votes this game. There won't be a last minute turn around or sudden random bandwagon. At least, such an occurance is highly unlikely. If someone is feeling pressure, gifted or wolf alike, they would have to do something well before the last minute. A gifted being suspected may choose to not risk waiting it out. At the same time, a wolf may do the same, banking on the fact that the pretended role may not even really exist. Yes, it would be risky for them to do so, but far less risky, since we don't know what we have and what we don't. The wolves may be planning on using that to their advantage, and I wanted to make sure that everyone was aware of it and on the look out.

Gifteds, if they are in this game, will just have to be more clever than that.

While at the surface, it seems Roa is trying to be helpful with this reasoning, I can just as easily see a wolf doing this to confuse people. In my last game, Roa was the cobbler and her comments were not the least bit helpful. This game, we don't even know if we have a cobbler, yet I do not doubt that a werewolf would use Day One to confuse. Roa could be innocent, but right now it is difficult to say. At this time, I am more inclined to think her a possible wolf.

[Macalaure]

I did an 'early' tgwbs-vote to get a waggon rolling. Obviously it worked the other way around. I don't care whether I'm suspected or not, but that current vote for Lommy is a shot in the dark which I would like to highly disencourage!