Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Kath]

We have something of a dilemma here. To lynch Roa or not to lynch Roa. Let's have a look at the possibilities:

1) We lynch Roa and find that she is the Cobbler, thus proving Rikae to be the Seer and Nogrod an innocent.

2) We lynch Roa and find that she is innocent, thus proving Rikae is not the Seer and Nogrod is unknown.

3) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is killed toNight and found to be either the Seer (proving Roa's guilt) or not (disproving Roa's guilt).

4) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is not killed toNight, meaning that nothing is certain and we spend the whole of tomorrow arguing the same point.

Now, for the most part I am inclined to think that option 1 is the best. However, on a re-read through just now I noticed something TGWBS said:

although I thought the Seer would see the Cobbler as an innocent

This was something I had forgotten. I know this was the case in previous games but it is possible that Mac had changed the rule here.

With the 'lynch Roa' options we do at least get some facts. We'll know if Rikae is the Seer or not. The problem there is that the second we have confirmation the wolves will kill her anyway. However, if we do not lynch Roa the wolves may well leave Rikae alive toNight in order that the village stays stuck on determining the roles of those two tomorrow. There are enough villagers around that it is more likely Rikae will dream of an ordinary villager than of a wolf so the danger is not that great for them.

Basically, lynching Roa, whatever she turns out to be, looks to be the best option for the good of the village. The only way that changes is if she is Gifted. We need to know whether Rikae is the real Seer or not or we're going to be relying on false information for the rest of the game. We could lynch Nogrod in an attempt to prove or disprove her claim, but there are many innocents and only one Cobbler.

So, unless Roa suddenly reveals herself as Gifted my vote will stand as:

++ROA

EDIT: Apologies, had an erroneous possibility.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Kath

I know this was the case in previous games but it is possible that Mac had changed the rule here.

Given some of the powers of Sauron, his High Priest sees all.

edit: I have only once been in a game where seers dreaming of cobblers was an issue, and there the seer could identify her/him. Therefore I thought it'd be clear.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

I've had a skim of as many posts as I could and have had a thought or two.

Mainly to do with Kath and her post about Roa and the reason behind the vote. It seems to me that Kath was more interested in finding out Roa's identity than weather or not she was a wolf faithful. Her post barely (if at all) mentions the possibility. This struck me as odd for surely when one is an ordo or at the least an innocent, then the desire to see faithfuls put to justice is above meer curiosity.
Unless I missed something, that whole post had an odd feel to it. Perhaps Kath was just pointing out something relevant to the conversation I will have to double check some time, but I had to post this thought to add to the discussion...

[Nogrod]

One interesting detail.

On #21 Spm says:

In any event, both mathematically and logically speaking, it is likely that at least one, and quite probably, two of our four Faithfuls have spoken already so far.

And basically I must agree with him. Before that there had been eight people posting (of 21). Of those eight one is me (innocent) and three are dead (Garin, Glirdan and Roa). That leaves four people: Mith, Lalaith, Kath and Mänwe. So we've gotten a free harvest here that has left only four candidates.

Now my only problem with this is that I can still see Spm as one of our Faithfuls. That being so it would look like a perfect possibility for a villain to notify the illogical situation (for some miraculous reason no Faithful had actually posted yet) and call it out for their benefit. Or then he was just stating the obvious even though one of his fellows had already posted...

But I think we should remember this anyhow...

[Lalaith]

I’m not infallibe, on the contrary, but you can trust that these are done with a good intention. So read them, chew them – agree, disagree, bring new points forwards... in no way accept them as I present them. More minds realise more things.

I think we should put our minds together to find the most useful way to use our known innocent. We should, Annatar willing, have him among us for two Days.
I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?

[the guy who be short]

In reply to Nogrod - that's not how maths works, I'm afraid. At that point, it was likely that at least one Faithful had spoken. However, every villager today has an equal chance - that is, 4 out of 15 - of being a Faithful.

I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?

I have already made a similar suggestion. I advised a shortlist. However, we need more known innocents for a shortlist to be mathematically plausible and not manipulated by the Faithful.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I have already made a similar suggestion. I advised a shortlist. However, we need more known innocents for a shortlist to be mathematically plausible and not manipulated by the Faithful.

I'm pretty uncomfortable with all this shortlist stuff in principle. But I will tell you what I think.

- All those who voted for Roa.
- All those who considered believing Roa.

For opposing themselves, on a mathematical basis, to the needs of the village. It is clear now that Roa intended for us to waste a day. I made it clear that I did not believe her for a second, because her argument was illogical. Because it was illogical, this leads me to believe that those who did accept it were Faithful, trying to make an issue of it and help waste the day.

I do disagree with you on this somewhat. If we already have a terrifying number of those who can influence the vote why give them one more? And no one says we would have gotten a Faithful yesterDay anyhow, on the contrary the basic odds were against us. And it was not illogical, that was the beauty of Roa's game yesterDay: it was a perfectly possible scenario.

But let's not make an issue out of this as I do believe this breaks the lines of us innocents already...

[Nogrod]

Oh I totally forgot why I decided to make a short post here...

I have no possibility to make full analysis of everyone before I need to go to sleep. It's midnight here and I need to wake up after six in the morning.

But I've been looking at Mith, Kath, Lalaith, Kitanna and Brinniel... people I have almost nothing to say as yet and would like to see more. It's not a random selection but made from a few points of view (I'd like to see closer for Durelin and tgwbs but I haven't time right now). But I'll try to have all you looked through before Day4 closes and I will leave the game next Night by the hands of the hopefully then only remaining two Faithfuls.

You know I have my doubts on Spm and somewhat to Lommy and confused about Mänwe...