Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[the guy who be short]

Thank you Rikae for that information (although I thought the Seer would see the Cobbler as an innocent?). I was just about to say that you should reveal your dreams before you die toNight (inevitable, as you were protected yesterNight).

Now then, it is vexing that Roa is Tar-Miriel, and hopefully we'll be able to analyse her posts and glean some information.

However, much more to the point, we have two known innocents: Nogrod and Rikae. This is very important because, while their views are subjective, they are innocent. Anybody else could be a wolf, and so their views and analyses can never quite be trusted - look at Roa for example. I was just thinking how helpful all this analysis is, and it turns out she's been trying to deceive us all this time.

What we must do, then, is use Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. Our votes should be based upon their ideas, simply because we know that their ideas are all coming from innocent people.

We should take this opportunity while we can. Rikae will die tonight, and Nogrod will probably die soon after.

I will now name a few of my own suspicions before going over posts by Nogrod, Rikae, and Roa.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

What we must do, then, is use Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. Our votes should be based upon their ideas, simply because we know that their ideas are all coming from innocent people.

So were getting back to idolising known innocents? It's something I dislike. While you can argue that their opinions are certainly not wolvish ones or ploys, their ideas aren't any better only because they're known innocents. I think everybody should heed the known innocents' advice - and give it more worth than to other villagers' advice - but the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent. I think you can safely say that we should trust and heed Rikae and Nogrod more than other fellow villagers, but we certainly should not stop believing in our own reasoning or stop thinking ourselves or limit our list of suspects because Rikae and Noggie don't suspect some people.

This might be only because I disagree with TGWBS on this matter, but suggesting that seems a wolvish thing to do... I mean, what's a better tactic for a wolf than idolising known innocents? Pretty much everyone agrees that their advice should be heeded, and by suggesting things like this you generally get more trust and people might consider you more innocent... I can't express this properly, but I think this is suspicious.
Besides, if TGWBS was a wolf, whose companions were not much suspected, this could be a very good tactic for him, taking the attention and the lynch-mob further from his fellows.
But I guess I won't pursue that interpretation further, because I have no more basis for claiming that than claiming that I look like a wolf whose fellows are suspected by Rikae and Nogrod and I'm trying to save them by attacking TGWBS's theory...

~*~

And I guess we shouldn't heed anything Roa says anymore. From now on, she will try to confuse us even more. Even though she does not know the identities of the wolves, I'm sure she can manage to mess up our minds and thoughts and even that itself is an advantage to the wolves.

[Rikae]

Well, before I go, if you're going to be using my ideas as a starting point I suppose I should let you know what I've been thinking today...
I know I said looking at the voters-for-me was futile, but I do think Lommy has been giving off a faithful-ish vibe - slightly nervous, jumpy and unsubstantive, trying to appear helpful... I don't have time to go into a detailed analysis right now (religious rites, ie, school), but I'll try to supply one before I ... get off the train at Baltimore. (Kick the bucket, buy the farm, you get the picture.)
I just thought throwing that out there might give you somewhere to start...although this is just a hunch on my part, and certainly fallible.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

A rather funny cross-post.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I must go now.

++TGWBS

Because of that latest. Also, if you look through his earlier posts, he's very careful, unlike usually (as an ordo). This strikes me as wolvish carefulness. Also, he posts voting data etc little nice things that makes me think he also might try to seem helpful... I dunno. And add gut feeling to that pile. The more I read his posts, the less he sits right with me.
If I and he are both still alive today, I'll certainly analyse him more thoroughly.

As to other people that bug me... Durelin. She comments everything and jokes about everything, her posts are mostly agreeing with others and her votes are weird and very safe... I don't like her in this game.

Kitanna is also slightly worrying. This is mostly a gut-feeling thing, though. But her vote placement and constant agreeing-humming make me wary of her as well.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Thinlo

So were getting back to idolising known innocents? It's something I dislike. While you can argue that their opinions are certainly not wolvish ones or ploys, their ideas aren't any better only because they're known innocents... the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent.

I certainly don't think we should stop thinking! I intend to analyse a few people I myself suspect - Lalaith and Brinniel - whom neither Nogrod nor Rikae suspect (I think). But the thing to bear in mind is that any analysis could be Faithful EXCEPT the analysis of the known innocents. You may call it idolizing to use this, but I call it common sense. If everybody were forced to vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, all of us - wolves included - would have to vote based on what is definitely innocent knowledge.

The problem with this is that the Faithful can manipulate the shortlist if one member is Faithful and the rest are not, but I think this makes them easier to catch afterwards.

The size of the shortlist must also be considered. We are 18, of whom 2 are known innocents, one is a known Tar-Miriel, and four are wolves.

This means 4/15 of the people who could be on a shortlist are wolves. About a quarter, so we'd have to have four people on the list for a reasonable chance of getting at least 1 wolf on it. I wonder if that would work? Could the wolves manipulate such a list with ease or not?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, sorry to inform you of this folks, but you're relying on analysis done by none other than Tar-Míriel.
I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you, but perhaps she's left a bit of a trail in her voluminous contributions. After all, she probably has a good idea who the faithfuls are.

I am perplexed. Our village is really going from bad to worse. Not only our numbers have thinned somehow in a very quick way, not only that Rikae is most likely doomed to die this night, but Roa is a cobbler!?! I was quite inclined to consider her a helpful villager at first, seems my judgement is not as good as I thought.

And to that what Rikae mentioned - what to do with Roa now. I agree it would be better to let her go, she cannot do much if we don't heed to her advice, or can she? If she can somehow help the wolves yet, I think it would be safer to get rid of her instead of risking lynching someone innocent. And, by the way, does she count into the villager count since she's been already revealed?

Originally Posted by Rune son of Bjarne

Anyways you might not belive me, but I did/do want to vote Legate, his attempt to be the voice of reason just seemed over the top. He reminds me of those ever so good people that end up being the real bad guy in cartoons. . .I don't know what else to say as their is not theory behind it, it is purly gut and feeling that legate is trying to hard.

I still feel the same about Mänwe, I think he acts weird and I do suspect him, but for some reason at the same time I have seriouse doubts that he is a wolf. . . It is hard to explain, but it was kind of the same feeling I had about Garin and that was why I mentioned that I would rather lynch Legate.

Oh, Rune, I can assure you I am not a cartoon bad guy. The thing with Hookbill I already explained. I am trying to collect as much as I can from what is going on around and then understanding it, and since I don't see anything much clear, I try to clear it up as much as I could. Brinniel at that time seemed replying seriously to a joke and I came right after her, so I asked. Nothing more, nothing less.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I think everybody should heed the known innocents' advice - and give it more worth than to other villagers' advice - but the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent.

Exactly. After all, the plurality allows us to come to a better conclusion, one can correct what someone else has misinterpretated or overlooked, etc. Now I really see the power of the Seer and realize what loss it is to lose Rikae.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I know I said looking at the voters-for-me was futile, but I do think Lommy has been giving off a faithful-ish vibe

I don't see anything wrong with Lommy. She is as much suspicious as anyone else, but I found her thoughts rather logical so far. Unless she is masking herself too well with some inventive thoughts, like Roa did.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I will honestly admit (since there still seems to be some talk about it) that in my first post, my comment about Hookbill was just harmless banter. Yet, as I observe him, I am beginning to question his innocence. He repeatedly admits that he is not good at this game, that he is unsure and a bit lost. While his comments do seem sincere, there is a small part of me that wonders if his confusion is just a ploy.

In "response" to this I would quote one of Hookbill's earlier posts:

Originally Posted by Hookbill the Goomba

I've only played once before and it was a long while ago. In my last game I made terrible mistakes and generally had a bad game. Hence I've been hesitant to join any WW games because the first one went so badly.

I tend to believe Hookbill. Again, as with Lommy, if he is not bluffing very good, which I doubt, I think he speaks the truth.

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

If everybody were forced to vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, all of us - wolves included - would have to vote based on what is definitely innocent knowledge.

I think this is nonsense. As I said above, we need the plurality, otherwise we are stuck.

Lastly, my own inventive thoughts from what has happened here. I see we cannot bear as true what Roa presented to us, although it fills half of this thread. And at first I was going to thank her for this. *sigh* Now, I will stay focused on my own point of view, since other peoples' hints might prove to be wrong as they did now. Ah! Seems I finally caught the point of how this game is to be played. All right boys, will be back with some constructive thoughts.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, sorry to inform you of this folks, but you're relying on analysis done by none other than Tar-Míriel.

I don't know why the real seer hasn't come forward to destroy your claim, but perhaps they are waiting till tomorrow, when you clearly won't be dead. I know you have only my word to go on, but Rikae is lying! I'd sooner suspect her of being Tar-Miriel than a Faithful with this suicidal plan, but I'm not sure.

I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you, but perhaps she's left a bit of a trail in her voluminous contributions. After all, she probably has a good idea who the faithfuls are.

Of course you wouldn't- it'd prove you were lying. Lynch me if you must, but wait until tomorrow, and then lynch her, becuase she'll still be around.

Only a few people can comeofrward and prove me right. Please do!

[the guy who be short]

Lalaith

Her first post is logical - we should not be sharing info on how to find gifteds!

Post 106 is when I first looked at her. She votes for Holbytlass for saing "I'm not sure who we're to pray to." Picking up on language like that seems silly when there's so much else going on. It was also a safe vote - Rikae and Garin had 4 each, Manwe had 3. As such, it seemed a waste of a vote cast for a reason lacking much thought behind it.

Posts 118-9 she tells Rikae to reveal her dream, then says not to because the wolves will kill this person if she does. I'm not sure what to make of this; it could be interpreted for or against Lalaith.

Her final post on day 1, post 129, switches her vote to Manwe to help save Rakae. I think at this point Rakae was already saved, was she not? In any case, that seems fairly reasonable to me.

All her posts today seem perfectly fine to me. I don't regard her as very suspicious after doing this analysis. In fact, I realise that my suspicion stemmed from Roa, who made Lalaith appear Faithful in her analysis. This, if anything, proves the importance of not taking other people's word for it - do research yourself. You are the only person you can trust.

Next, Brinniel.

[Roa_Aoife]

TGWBS - I was not the only person, nor the first, to find Lalaith odd looking. My analysis picks on every little detail, that's why I pride myself on it. Please, I didn't have any sinnister intentions with it.