WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Lalwendë]

So far I've not seen Gil doing anything odd today so my vote from last time may change. But once a funny feeling is there, it never goes away entirely, so I will keep watching I think.

Right now I'm suspicious of Durelin's sense of certainty. This is what happened on the first day, suspicions began and then a rollercoaster set in and we ended up lynching an innocent, one who I pointed out was far too 'clearly' suspicious. I will look again I think at the origins of Volo's lynching and see if I can work out who was the instigator. The other thing here is that Durelin suspects Rikae for suspecting Celuien at first - I think she was just making a stab in the dark because she's being analytical today (unlike yesterday when none of us had anything to go on).

One person is slightly weird today and that's Morm. Is he being honest that he's trying a new approach? Or is it because he has a 'special' role? Even though I don't know what he's usually like (verbose I presume) the very fact that he says he has 'changed' is odd. Glad he's more talkative though.

I'm pondering Boro, not as a suspect but for his strategy which is risky. Whether he is a Hunter or not is by the by I think as he has put the seed of that possibility into people's minds; it may bring him protection but as time goes on, if we don't get the wolves it might make the rest of us who manage to stay alive get increasingly suspicious. And if he's not the Hunter and the real Hunter stays alive that long, he or she may start up a lynch mob against Boro as the struggle to live becomes more desperate. Interesting. He's not a suspect yet, but he's certainly an enigma.

Who did this stabbing in the dark thing to poor Celuien? Lommy ruminates on this one. Is it mere accident that she is the first to do it at length? Everyone's shied away from any mention of it til now. Or is Rikae the villager with the golden dagger? Had she felt railroaded into changing her original vote for Celuien after Volo turned out to be innocent? More importantly, is all this trying to work out the golden dagger owner is a big distraction?

[Nogrod]

Sadly Naria will not be able to play the game. She will be removed from the lists.

She would have been an ordinary Villager...

[Thinlómien]

Sadly Naria will not be able to play the game. She will be removed from the lists.
She would have been an ordinary Villager..

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

More importantly, is all this trying to work out the golden dagger owner is a big distraction?

Even if it's not intended as one, it might become one. I think no one should concentrate on it too much. (In my opinion it can be discussed as long as it does not rob the attention from catching the wolves.) I think next night will show more about it.

Now, I'm off to read the this day through properly, hopefully a longer and more insightful post will follow.

[Mithalwen]

I'm here - will be back for longer later but this is not great .. Day 2 and we have lost a quarter of the village ...... Interesting choice of kills.... and I do want to trust Boro but having bawled out Farael in another place on the counterproductiveness of declaring as Hunter, I have been fretting that I made a mistake... however I really hope not...

[Thinlómien]

First off, I'm pretty a bit worried with the situation. 13 people, of who three are wolves. Not very bad for us yet, but as wolves get two kills per night and we keep lynching innocents, we might find ourselves dead sooner than we anticipated. As soon as we've got rid of one lycanthrope, we can take this easier: our doom will approach much more slowly, and in principle the numbers are in our side. (Original 19 players, which of innocents 16 and wolves 3; basicly pretty easy ww-situation for the good guys.)

Secondly, though last day there was plenty of talk, I still encourage people to speak up. I'd especially like to hear more from Eomer and Gil-Galad.

(You might notice I have an obsession to keep repeating what Roa_Aoife and Nogrod say, but she's killed and he's modding, so someone must keep reminding about these things. )

~*~

I agree with those who say Roa was killed because of her skills as a ww-player. Her powers of analysis are well known. Also, it occured to me, that she was pretty vocal, and she usually gets even more vocal when the game proceeds and that might be a little add to the reasons to kill her - for some persons. I know there are people (morm for example), who dislike reading hordes of pages of ww and to whose killing an analytical and intelligent villager who tends to have pretty much power in the village and who floods the thread. Who knows.

Mac then. Well, he's known to be an intelligent and helpful villager too. And he's also something who could be called a "secondary intellect" (forgive me for the choice of words ) and thus the wolves might have expected him to be less probably protected (being less obvious wolf kill) and thus just he's dead. It also might be that the villagers normally considered "great players" are wolves and they're trying to kill intelligent people who are not easily lead/deceived out of the way. For such a kill Mac is ideal.

It also might have been that Mac and/or Roa were killed because of their opinions. The wolves might want to eliminate the villagers who don't think the way they do or who suspect them to silence them. And then there's the possibility of a frame-up (though there's no seer in the game), of course. Now that I've gone through all the possible reasons that come to my mind, I can conclude that the first ones I came up with both of the dead separately are the ones I believe in. Thus I also conclude, that we shouldn't dwell on their deaths anymore (haha, I'm well aware of showing you bad example myself), before there's been more kills and we can see a pattern, if there's one.

~*~

Originally Posted by Firefoot

The word I would use to describe her [Lommy] is “happy” – or maybe “light-hearted” would be better…

I bet that's only because the over-abusing of smilies...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Kath - Always makes me vaguely uneasy; I'm beginning to think it's just her style.

Believe me, it well might be. I feel just the same!

~*~

Originally Posted by Ff

The one thing that struck me about him was that he was the first one to really go after Volo and was the first one to vote for him (at a time when numerous other people had votes), but as the Day drew to a close, he backed off of this suspicion. This to me seems very much like a wolf, basically fobbing his vote off on an innocent (who did, admittedly, appear very wolvish) whom he figured would not be lynched. He’s definitely on my more suspicious list.

That is well perceived, and I agree it seems a bit fishy... *adds Ang to the "to be watched" category*

Durelin seems pretty quick to attack Rikae. It makes me feel uneasy about her. When little suspicion for Rikae appears, she's eager to jump on and bring up new points against her. Of course an innocent with some existing suspicions would get extra boost from others agreeing with her, but Durelin's a bit too uncautious...

Originally Posted by Rikae, about Ang's views in an analysis

b) Voting for “a random person, probably Durelin” is a contradiction. [But is it really? Random just means he chose for no real reason; it doesn't mean he didn't choose yet. Actually, choosing early makes it more likely to be random.]

There's two possibilities to define "random vote" in ww, and it always makes people confused. The first is that it's random, you cast dic etc. The second way to make a "random" vote is to choose someone for a stupid or intentionally unreasonable reason, for example "I don't like her occupation" or "he got me killed in the last game" or "he's Nilp" or "she used the word 'pancake' ". Volo apparently meant the latter one, and Anguirel understood "random vote" to mean the previous one and that's why he attacked him. Or that's how I see the situation.

I'm inclined to believe Boro's claim for a few days. Ruling someone partly out from the suspect list really helps, a bluff like that would be a bit too bold (maybe) and I trust my gut feeling. Last autumn, Boro was twice or thrice a wolf and everytime I got vague "bad feelings" about him, and that didn't happen when he was innocent. I'm not getting "bad feelings" from him right now, so I'm inclined to concentrate on other people for now.

EDIT: xed with Mith

[Thinlómien]

I don't think he should be trusted. Last game, Holbywolf kept voting me single-mindedly (like Farael seems to start doing now) and she managed slipping under the radar beautifully. People started to disregard her votes ("oh, it's just the regular Lommy-vote") and she managed to avoid analysis (which usually follows the lynch-bandwagons). Speaking of which, I'm very surprised no one has yet attacked yesterday's Volo-voters screaming that wolves hide in bandwagons...

[Thinlómien]

I decided to make something summary-ish.

Might be innocent
Mith - I've no reason to suspect her this far.
Boro - as I said, I'm inclined to believe him innocent.

Middle zone
Kath - the more I think of it, the more I become convinced she's actually innocent and I suspected her yesterday just because of her general playing style... Anyway, I'd like to hear more from her before making any solid conclusions.
Rune - he's just like he's normally and doesn't make me particularly suspicious, but I'm aware I might trust him on too futile grounds... It's pretty difficult to form a proper picture of him.
Gil - basicly, I can't say anything about him, but he's pretty normal. Speak up, Gil, even if you have schoolwork, so have many other people!
Firefoot - I myself see no particular reason to suspect her. Good points have been made against her by others anyway, so I can't banish the thought there might be something wrong with her after all.

Wary of
Lal - there's something in her or in her general attitude that doesn't sit right with me. I don't know what it is or why it makes me feel uneasy, but I just think it's better not to trust her too much. (And no one else either, for that matter. )
Eomer - like always, he seems a bit suspicious. I'd like to hear more of him.
Rikae - I agree she seems a bit suspicious and she does some things that make me uneasy, but she also makes things that make me think she's innocent. Anyway, she's more on the bad side in my opinion.

Fish
Durelin - too eager to attack Rikae, also there's something evil about her that I can't put my finger on.
Farael - see my previous post. I know he tends to be weird, but I like it more when he's vocal, full of theories and weird than this slip-under-the-radar-ish single-minded weirdness.
Ang - also vaguely suspicious. Despite her own suspiciousness, Durelin makes me think there's something wrong with him.
morm - I still think he's as close as someone with his personality and reputation can get to slip-under-the-radar.

I don't think anyone on the last category overtly suspicious. The more I play werewolf, the less assured I generally become about my suspects. (Ang, don't say anything about the last game, it was an exception. ) The wolves - whoever they are - are hiding their furs quite well: there are no "obvious wolves".

I don't even think that all the three wolves are some Durelin+Anguirel+Farael+morm -combo, but I think some of them might be wolf/wolves; they are the ones that look most suspicious to me right now. So: if you asked me "who are the wolves?", I couldn't answer, but if you asked me "who are wolvish?" I'd answer with the names I just mentioned. Hopefully this makes some sense, because I can't explain it better than that.

[Mithalwen]

Lom the wolves seem to have 3 kill per night ......

I am interested by the choices... and wonder if each wolf got a free choice or if this was a group decision. I know that wolves sometimes go for quiet folk on night one to give few clues ... this clearly wasn't the case.... so I do wonder if there isn't at least one wolf among the Day 1 quiet folk. I know Gil, Morm and Kath cite RL but that doesn't mean they are automatically innocent. So the wolves picked folk they were scared of .... Celuien tends to have very reliable instincts and she seldom attracts suspicion so you can see why wolves would want her out of the way.

Roa is a slightly different case. While she is one of the most tactically aware players she is also someone who is more likely to attract suspicion simply because she can be so convincing as a wolf. The wolves obviously wanted her out of the way immediately rather than hoping to engineer a lynch. So was Roa on to something? And who did the rangers protect I wonder... Day one needs to be looked at in these terms I think.

BTW I have started removing my sig to save space on a long thread.. might make (re)reading easier...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mith

Lom the wolves seem to have 3 kill per night ......

I disagree; I interpreted the three deaths the way that they (wolves) have two and that there's a mysterious golden dagger -person (who's on the village's side), that has a license to kill, or at least one had one last night.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

BTW I have started removing my sig to save space on a long thread.. might make (re)reading easier...

Have you?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I disagree; I interpreted the three deaths the way that they (wolves) have two and that there's a mysterious golden dagger -person (who's on the village's side), that has a license to kill, or at least one had one last night.

Oh well I suppose I thought that was the hunter .... and may give a different perspective on the kills .. fact is though 3 innocents are still dead... so the situation isn't that much better...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There is obviously confusion about the roles. It seems as though there is a villager with a free kill, sort of like a good Werebear; but I have been presuming there is a Seer too.

[Mithalwen]

Yes Lommy .. I just got distracted by something you said about Lalwende and have been checking it out.


I had a impression that we hadn't heard much from her and yet I looked at the lists and saw she had posted a lot. Then I checked out her posts and they are not insubstantial as such but not actually giving anything of herself away. So much vote monitoring that I had to check her role to make sure she wasn't a pollster or statistician. Her earlier posts are all comments on others' opinions it seems rather than her own. In other places, seeming super helpful people have turned out to be wolves making their presence felt wihtout giving anything away.

This ringing major alarm bells and she is now my prime suspect. I should be around later almost to the end so I don't have to vote now .. want to do more reading and obviously Lalwende should be around more later...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If the wolves presumed there was a Seer it is worth noting that they took out two Gil-Galad voters. Macalaure also went after Rune strongly at the start but then cooled off towards the end of the day.

If they just went for them because they are clever and were making sense then it doesn't tell us much.

I'm surprised Roa wasn't protected: she seemed to have gained trust very early on.