WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, you can go ahead and vote for me if you absolutely must, but it isn't going to help you at all.

[Valier]

Well I don't know what to think at this point but I am leaning towards Rune. It's awfully quiet around here.......Where is everybody? It's getting fairly late here and I will have to vote tonight before bed. I'm going to look back at the Rune/Menel interaction.

[Valier]

Well I have found that Rune thought Menel to be innocent in the beginning and then he changed his mind and thinks he is a wolf. Menel has been suspicious of Rune for quite awhile. Both were suspicious of Ang. They have had little direct interaction though.....but both have talked alot about the other. Could be a major bluff with the two "fighting" and getting one of them killed hoping the other can make it to the end?

[Thinlómien]

I'm convinced my school supports my werewolfing in some sly way... Today my psychology teacher wasn't present and she had left us riduclously few exercises to do and I finished them in less than 15 minutes... And dashed to the school library to play werewolf.

Well, it's pretty silent here. I'm rather confident the remaining two wolves are now trying to escape attention. So, lynch the silent ones? Jokes aside, I think everybody who wants the village to win should speak up (otherwise we can't distinguish the goodies from the baddies) and I'll be personally after everyone who isn't speaking up. (Yes, I'm afraid, it's in the genes...)

I agree Menel is suspicious, but of the others I won't say anything before rereading their and Volo's posts on the thread. (I'm off to that next, because without doing it I doubt I can be of any real assistance to the village...)

Originally Posted by Ang

Beorn...I'm not so much suspicious of her, as desperate for her not to beat me as a wolf. That would be ringingly unfair. So I'm tempted - as she was about me - to lynch her anyway..

Haha, I guess I deserve that opinion from you, but, I assure you, you don't have to fear that... at least in this game.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, and Valier, I'd leave interpreting Volo's words aside... He might have said anything about his fellow wolves and I hold it very unprobable we're ever going to figure out who's his fellow wolf by reading his last words. I mean, he could say his fellow wolf's guilty in his opinion to bluff, say they're innocent to double-bluff, or leave them unmentioned in hope that they escape our attention... He could also name an inncent guilty to bluff, or innocent (to double-bluff) or leave unmentioned in order to think us he's shielding them. Or he could be doing all this in quadrupule-bluff -level. So, basicly anything, and probably, (yet not certainly) all these strategies mixed.

So I'd really rather concentrate on other things, Valier, no offense...

[Valier]

Well I am off to bed right away and I am still no wiser on what to do. So if we lynch an Ordo today and one goes over night we end up with 2 wolves/4 Ordo's still not bad but then tomorrow is going to be hell. I really want to catch us a wolf today but everyone is so quiet.

[Valier]

It's 1:30 am here and I am tired. Let us cross our fingers we get a wolf.

++Rune son of Bjarne

[Thinlómien]

Rune seems innocent. Him saying Menel's the only one who feels innocent is hardly a wolvish thing. I don't think a wolf would say that about a fellow, and I also think that a wolf wouldn't say that at all: that declaration sounds a bit weird and it caught quite many people's attention. Also, the wolves don't think anyone particularly less suspicious than others so they have to fabricate it all... Why deliberatedly make up just one who looks innocent, since talking about just one person's innocence gets attention? I can find only one sly reason... Maybe Rune was trying to hint he was the seer having dreamed of just Menel this far and making it clear in case he would die next night (a rather jumpy seer), to prevent people from voting/suspecting him? That would be very clever from a wolf. Because of that Menel-comment I thought he might be the seer and did just as described above: did not concentrate on him. Wolves are looking for seer hints, so I find it weird Rune isn't dead yet. Or then he's a wolf (or Menel). Now I honestly don't know myself what I'm after with this mess, but I guess it's something like: "Rune is most probably innocent based on that comment, but might also be a very cunning wolf".
Otherwise he seems pretty genuine.

Menel, on the other hand, flip-flops and changes suspicion as the public opinion changes. He agrees with almost every major suspicion in the village. (Says me who's joined every lynch-bandwagon in this village this far. ) But he's different (than me): he agrees with many different major suspects every day and very rarely has anything more original to say... Also, Menel has suspected Rune quite strongly. This combined with Rune's Day1 "Menel seems innocent" makes me think they surely aren't both wolves. If Rune is, Menel isn't. If Menel is, Rune isn't. I find the latter quite possible. (And of course there's the chance that neither is a wolf.)

Nilp's post 245 makes me quite convinced of his innocence. He makes a case against Volo and votes him and sounds very genuine in his other sayings too. He also suspected Volo quite strongly yesterday before Durelin came out. I doubt a wolf would do anything like that when they were so close to a win by numbers.

Holby is worrysome. She avoids interacting with others and mostly posts statistics that make her seem helpful. She very efficiently keeps herself suspecting only me (as a major suspect) and voting me. Not very open-minded thinking and nicely makes her more difficult to track and also makes her to provoke less gurdges () and to get less attention. Also manages to avoid analysis by not joining bandwagons. On the other hand, I'd like to emphasise this, the last time I played with her, she was evil, and a lot more jumpy than now. She's either innocent or has learned something or I'm less perceptive than last time. But I guess I'm leaning to agreeing with Ang about her.

Valier is like a kitten. She has huge innocent eyes and a cuddly fur, but you should not forget she has claws too, and very sharp and long ones! I mean, she seems pretty innocent, but I've been wrong about her many times enough to know what she's capable of. (I'll never forget the game where Wolfier killed me instead of a known innocent Nogrod, because she feared that if I was alive, I'd get her lynched, and made the whole village crazy and confused by that kill, and, in the end, won the game.) So, she seems innocent, but that doesn't necessarily mean she is innocent. I'll concentrate on her more tomorrow if we fail today.

So, order of suspiciousness
Menel
Holby
-------
Valier
Rune
Nilp

Oh, and it doesn't matter anymore, but I think I just found out about the wolves noticing spawn was a twin, if killing the twins was their aim.

Originally Posted by Volo

Another name I feel evil is Filia, she hasn't said anything interesting, except that she doesn't trust Duriel. Her vote for Gloanna came straight after Dancing Dwalin's post about Gloanna. As if they're a team...

But as I said, it's of little worth now that Volo's dead and we can't lynch him anymore, except the worth that I feel really keen and perceptive right now!

edit: xed with Valier x2

[Anguirel]

I'm not, I've decided going to attack Beorn on this, my last day.

It would essentially repeat my tactic of confronting my loudest potential foes, Bofgrod and Nori, which turned out so disastrously. The omens are not good. I feel there was good intent in the thoroughness of the case against me Beorn delivered.

Neither will I vote for Valier. Her early incompetence strikes some kind of chord with me, as I was pretty useless early in this escapade too, and I think her examination of Volo's posts is a typically forthright move she would employ as an innocent.

I regard Nilp as practically a proven innocent. Because of this I would really like to hear his opinions.

This leaves Bomburlass, Menel and Rune. I am quite intrigued by the idea of the latter two, after all, working together, which Valier suggested - they never really cemented their words against each other with actions, and both did fan the flames of the feud between me, Bofgrod and Nori. Yet Runi in particular was so brazen about doing so that I am leaning towards his innocence more than Menel's.

I am increasingly sure that Bomburlass has reverted to her most traditional wolf style. In the very earliest games, she had some wolf outings where she kept hold of her nerves, was almost invisible and remained unspotted. I believe her continuing absence and failure to respond to my needling is deeply incriminating.

I will probably vote for Bomburlass but may, partly due to the opinions of our late Seer, compromise if a lot of support materialises for Menel.

All innocents - please avoid retaliation for votes cast against you and vote for who you genuinely think, in light of your opinions, mine, Durelin's before she died, is a wolf.

Conserve your votes and choose wisely. And please, talk to me ! I am currently a very lonely King Under the Mountain...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am back. . .

Sorry it took so long, but when I made my way to my fathers house after work last night (2am) I found that some crazy new security had been installed and I had no means getting past it. anyhow now I am on an internet cafe and ready to contribute.

Well, about my question to Valier, I was afraid it might seem wolvish. I decided that I could not be botherd by this, as I did not have the faintest idea what she ment. And I think that I earlier told that I would always have to leave for work a few hours after game start. . .

My major problem with this game is that I cannot remember how Valier normally behaves. . . I have this image of her being very productive and with well founded theorys, but maybe that is just my imagination. I just things that she klings an awfull lot to straws. . .like the thing in Volo's post, she uses it as an argument, which seems very weird to me.

anyways I am around now. . .

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I did boast it would take but one Wolf exposed, and I could get them all. Unfortunately, my boast is ill-founded. I base my deductions on past voting records, trying to see whether a proven Wolf tried to save someone from the noose or push someone into death. From that I can see who's guilty or innocent, more or less. For what a Werewolf fears above all is dying; he fears it even more so than an ordinary villager.

In this game, however, we had nothing but bandwaggons. And bandwaggons hide these crucial clues from me. Therefore, I will treat the bandwaggoners as suspect.

DAY 1: Eomer bandwaggon (ordo)

Who voted? Volo (wolf), Nogrod (ordo), spawn (ordo), Lommy (unknown)

Well, the only unknown left here is Lommy, and her vote tells us nothing. She and spawn cross-voted for Eomer's killing vote, which would go against her if a wolf was in danger--unfortunately, all second-placers (spawn, Kitanna, and Farael) were proven innocents.

DAY 2: Kitanna bandwaggon (ordo)

Who voted? Nilp (unknown), Menel (unknown), Lommy (unknown), Boro (ordo), Volo (wolf), Nogrod (ordo)

This also tells us little. Kitanna received almost half the village's votes. Although it is interesting to see that Lommy and Volo joined this bandwaggon, too.

DAY 3: Kath bandwaggon (hunter)

Who voted? Durelin (seer), Valier (unknown), Nogrod (ordo), Lommy (unknown), Boro (ordo)

Volo didn't vote, but Lommy was still in this one. I already did an analysis of those who voted in the bandwaggon yesterDAY, and I quote it here:

Valier accepted the arguments set forth at face-value (q.v. 230.) Quite suspicious, and added to that she throws suspicion at me out of nowhere, alluding to my lack of sensible posts.

Lommy's vote lacks reasoning (I did try looking for one, but apparently she believed Boromir 'has good points, especially that one about Kath.' (q.v. 234) In the same post she answers Boro's suspicion of her. Interesting . . .

Also, she trusts a wolf-Menel to be able to reveal himself easier. Perhaps, it can be read to mean that if Menel is lynched and turns out to be furry, she can get credit for it. Hmmm . . . (Nilp)

DAY 4: Volo bandwaggon (wolf)

Who voted? Nilp (unknown), Lommy (unknown), Ang (ordo), Holby (unknown), Rune (unknown), Valier (unknown)

As I had predicted, this gives me little clues to work on. Volo, Menel, and Durelin (?!) were the only ones who failed to vote for Volo

~*~

Well, it looks bad for Lommy, but I still believe what I said yesterDAY about Menel:

Menel's reason to vote for Rune (q.v. 207) is rather feeble, and it has been even more weakened due to Nogrod's innocence, yet he holds on to it toDAY until Durelin tells him that his analysis of Lommy makes more sense--see 277 then read on to the bottom of the page.

. . .

Now, what have I learned from this? Lommy and Menel feels hairy, but if they are two of the Wolves I find their tactic strange. They're trying to get each other killed! Then again, a wolf-Menel back in WWIX did the same thing with Shelob, and they won that game with their numbers intact. (A little history; it makes Menel look all the more dangerous to me.) (Nilp)

As for his only post today . . . it feels similar to Kitanna's nonchalance at her upcoming death . . . is he hoping we'd think him innocent, too? I don't know . . .

++Meneltarmacil