WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Anguirel]

And a final point - Beorn, your command of the Anglo-Saxon tongue is remarkable, so please read my quotations that you believe constitute a "flip-flop" with more meticulousness. They do not contradict each other.

One says a frame-up was not the primary purpose - that purpose being to kill a Seer.

The other refers to a frame-up, intentional or unintentional. Even if intentional, I'm certain it was not the primary intent.

I'm sure your grasp of philosophy is up to these elementary concepts, so I think you're attempting to twist my words for your own gain. Beware. On verbal subjects I am at my spikiest.

I do not suspect Volo, by the way, and, sad to say, increasingly have doubts about Durelin. I've taken her innocence too much for granted in the past. However, with such an excellent foe as Miss Beorn to hand I am most unlikely to vote for Durelin.

[Durelin]

[Durelin]

Okay, so I had a humongously long post and I just lost it all.

Screw it.

VOLO IS A WOLF.

Ang is innocent.

I didn't get a dream on Night 1.
I dreamt of Nogrod on Night 2.
I dreamt of Ang on Night 3.
Volo Night 4.

I knew he was a Wolf...wish I had seriously gone after him sooner. I might be dead by now, though, if I had.

I think Menel and Valier are his fellow wolves.

Read over Volo's and their posts now, if you can, knowing he is a Wolf.

Sorry for letting you innocent guys waste time, but I had a myriad of possible plans for toDay, which I had outlined in detail but now lost... Basically, I hoped we could somehow get a Wolf toDay, and then I'd somehow survive the Night. I planned on dreaming of Valier.

Looking at everyone else, though, I actually become more certain that the trio is the most likely. I suppose Holby could fit in there, as I don't think Volo or Menel ever seriously went after her, but... And Menel's going after Rune could have been an attempt to distance himself from him.

I think Val's silence today except for her one supposed to look helpful but really more like an attempt to get the Seer to slip up or to out themselves is much more incriminating than Holby's silence.

The Menel and Volo connections sometimes seem too obvious to me, but hello...all three Wolves are still alive! And personally I think it's because of overthinking. Re-read some of my earlier stuff for more on that if you need to. Or just start reading over the likely three's posts...now there's a better idea.

Really Menel could even go toDay. His vote for Lommy, way before the deadline, really really bothers me. He doesn't even say he has to vote then. He just does.

I don't know...I've only gotten 3 hours of sleep.

So, Menel, Val, got anything for me? Will you guys finally turn on your Wolf pal? Perhaps you'd like to suggest Volo and I are totally in cahoots? Because we totally are. His attempt earlier toDay to get me lynched that went nowhere...yeah, total attempt to distance himself from me. Not that I've been going after him of and on for a couple days now...

Okay, so, be good...and I'll hopefully be back with more thoughts. Though most of my thoughts are already out there...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Okay, class is over. (That French exam was agonising to see . . . ) Here's the promised DAY 3 analysis--it's disappointing, though.

One can group the voters into three groups: the Kath bandwaggon, the duelists's votes, and . . . miscellaneous. I think it's not a far-fetched to imagine a Wolf in each group.

Under the first group we have Durelin, Valier, and Lommy. To say something about the victim, Kath was a bit suspicious to begin with, but his biased analysis of Nogrod (qq.v. 213, 218) was the nail that cost the kingdom (or something like that).

Durelin's reason for voting (q.v. 219) was sound. GOING HOTLY AFTER SOMEONE WITHOUT CIRCUMSPECTION AT A CRITICAL PHASE OF THE GAME IS A BAD MOVE (a warning to all out there, even myself.) I see little to be suspicious of her at the moment.

Valier accepted the arguments set forth at face-value (q.v. 230.) Quite suspicious, and added to that she throws suspicion at me out of nowhere, alluding to my lack of sensible posts.

Lommy's vote lacks reasoning (I did try looking for one, but apparently she believed Boromir 'has good points, especially that one about Kath.' (q.v. 234) In the same post she answers Boro's suspicion of her. Interesting . . .

Also, she trusts a wolf-Menel to be able to reveal himself easier. Perhaps, it can be read to mean that if Menel is lynched and turns out to be furry, she can get credit for it. Hmmm . . .

Next, the 'duel'-voters:

Menel's reason to vote for Rune (q.v. 207) is rather feeble, and it has been even more weakened due to Nogrod's innocence, yet he holds on to it toDAY until Durelin tells him that his analysis of Lommy makes more sense--see 277 then read on to the bottom of the page.

Whoa.

Ang posted this gem (239) which made him suspicious of Nogrod. Although he ended up wrong, he seems to think of nothing but the good of this village. (All hail the King under the Mountain!)

Nilp: I still think Volo is fanged. But hey, I'm expanding my horizons.

Now, the others. (Sorry.)

Holby seized on Lommy's strange vote for Eomer back in DAY 1. (q.v. 233)

Rune's casus voting (q.v. 238) makes me scratch my head. And a bit uneasy . . .

Volo didn't vote. Maybe his furry friends lectured him not to vote rashly.

Now, what have I learned from this? Lommy and Menel feels hairy, but if they are two of the Wolves I find their tactic strange. They're trying to get each other killed! Then again, a wolf-Menel back in WWIX did the same thing with Shelob, and they won that game with their numbers intact. (A little history; it makes Menel look all the more dangerous to me.)

Who could the third Wolf be? Rune? Valier? Volo?!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Haha, I was right! Curse you, fiend! Eat whatever form of execution we can scrounge up!

++Volo

[Thinlómien]

I can't believe this! I was so convinced of Ang's guilt. Holy cow. I don't honestly know what to think.

Well, I'll believe Durelin, I think. Of course she might be a wolf, but I don't think it very probable. And if she was one, we'd know it tomorrow, and we wouldn't be even doomed yet.

Uh-oh. I stand corrected about Ang... I'm just baffled. He was so guilty-ish. Well, I guess I must apologise for a rather fierce attack...

Volo a wolf... Well, that's news. No offense, but he's clearly outdone his ancestors both in deception and in making good points by far.

++VOLO

Good work Volo, I'm glad we had Durelin. Well done, Durelin, catching a wolf. Our situation looks better now.

I find it still so diffcult to understand Ang's not guilty... How could I have been this wrong?!? I mean, it was not generally being wrong, but being convinced and wrong...

Now that Rune has been released of my very faint seer-suspicions I will be focusing in him more than before...

Huh, Ang, you can be quite convincing wolf as an innocent...

[Anguirel]

Blast, blast, blast.

While delivering pink slips to naughty boys as an errand for my Headmaster (don't ask) it occurred to me that Durelin's trust in me probably had a deeper motive than mere suspiciously friendliness. I returned too late.

My apologies, stalwart Orilin, for doubting you. If we could double-lynch I would vote for another suspect and try to bag two wolves, but as it is, I'll get the vote out of the way...

++VOLOIN

I don't believe I let myself get convinced by his "I'm Lestrade" garbage. I was caught because my metaphor was flattered. I also thought his assault on me was too earnestly wrong to be lupine. How mistaken I was.

I think, agonising as it is to read Beorn's reservoir of vitriol, there may be evidence inside it that help us decide about her. And all Voloin's actions should clearly be examined anew.

I'm sorry to have failed you, great Seer; we shall ensure you have a fine burial tomorrow morning...

[Anguirel]

Beorn, in the event of your innocence, I have some rather patronising advice for you.

Always consider the eventuality of your being wrong...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

This Seer revelation comes at a price.

Not only is our Seer's fate sealed, we shall have a lack of insightful voting analysis tomorrow. But I guess it's a price to pay for a bigger chance to save this vilage.

What I want to say is: you may vote for the right person, but for the wrong reason. I'll be watching what you say--or fail to say--in your votes.

I should have dinner now. Felagund, out.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Not only is our Seer's fate sealed...

Yup. But I doubt that Durelin will be the one to die...

Four votes, three wolves, one innocent. Lommy is innocent. The others (Durelin and Anguirel) are wolves, Nilpaurion is probably the third.
Yes, that would make sense. I can't remember that either of the wolves truly suspected Nilpaurion. And it's easy to see that Durelin and Anguirel are a team, what team but a wolf team?

If Durelin were a Seer, she's a bad Seer... First of all, the Seer shouldn't reveal herself at this moment, as the only "Seer" that would really profit from it is a hairy seer. But yes, you revealed and killed the real Seer.

Night2: Nogrod -> innocent
Night3: Boromir -> innocent
Night4: Lommy -> innocent

I'm the worst Seer you've ever had, but at least I'm a Seer... A Seer at a loss. Lommy's analyse really impressed me! Hmm. That should be reason to vote Anguirel tomorrow and Durelin the day after.
I think that the game is pretty clear now, except for the third wolf... But I bet it's Nilpaurion!

You might wonder why I trusted people before my dream. No, I didn't trust them, I actually "trusted" them to stay safe, Nogrod or Boromir wouldn't want to kill somebody who trusted them if they were wolves. And I had to "trust" them before I knew the truth, I would be dead if I started trusting them after the first dreams...

I'll analyze Nilpaurion Felagund next.

[Anguirel]

I suggest that we treat the wolf as if he's speaking Ancient Sanskrit, until tomorrow, when his burblings may be of use.

[Volo]

Day2

#139 Here is enough reason for Nilp to be wolf.
I seem to see that Nilp is known for not killing Spawn, right? Well, now Nilp decided to win, that nasty wolf...

#143 Now he's messing around.

#146 Here he saves his text from messing around. This one a good post, but Nilp suspects Volo, Kitanna, Nogrod and Holbytlass. Two of those were innocent, on is the Seer and one... I don't know, but probably innocent.
Votes Kitanna, while his own accusations were not for her, as I see it.

Day3

#245 Huh? I don't really see your point in accusing me... I think even an innocent would want to stay safe, but that is not the point here. You vote me for voting Kitanna whom you voted yourself? If this ain't wolfish, nothing is! And I did think that Kitanna was the wolf, thanks to you too!

Day4

#271 "How sad" and continues suspecting me...

#276 Again... But I voted by trusting you, Nilp, you...
Posts this vote diagram with analysis coming later. ()

#282 Diagram for the third day's votes.

#287 Comments my comment on him. What is this thing about Gifts? If you mean if I have a Gift, yes I do. If you mean that you have a Gift, no you don't.

#299
Analysis , at last... Who does he trust? Durelin and Anguriel or course! And who does he find suspicious?
Lommy for lack of reason in her vote. I don't think it's that bad to listen to others and use their points in your own votes... True, Lommy explained badly.
Menel, I agree, Menel did seem scary, but there can't be four wolves, so Menel is innocent.
Rune for his badly explained but right vote.
Holby for her careful vote, and wrong by the way...
Volo, because I didn't vote. Hey, I was away... Just like you on day1! Take that!
I conclude that this throwing suspicions on every wall and making it with humor, just like Anguriel.

#300
Votes me. Because his fellow wolf told that she's the Seer and I'm a wolf. At this point, I would expect better from you, why to trust the first one to say "Seer", go through them both and decide for yourself...

#304 How very ironic, yes the Seer's fate is sealed. You must have had a good laugh when voting the Seer. Goes away as a victorious wolf.

Take that! And Lommy, you'll die next night for being innocent. Hope to see you in the Afterlife.

Valier, Menel, Rune, Holby, don't die!


EDIT: X:d with everything since my last post.