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Old 01-14-2007, 10:57 PM   #1
Volo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anguirel
Voloin, you're so cheerfully convinced in the rectitude of your own theories that I think you might very well be innocent.

I really suggest, though, that you put your pursuit of me aside. I know letting go of hobby-horses is very hard - I myself couldn't help suspecting Bofgrod and Nori, which turned out to be a stupendous blunder.
This is nice and all, but I don't go by "trust me, trust you"... I have severe time limits that sertainly reduce my use, but I'll try to be of help.

Nilp, I see you're trying to be of help, but why to be hunting only me? Am I getting close to something?
You're trying to be too safe. Making such diagrams is useful, but it doesn't tell your opinions...

I have my list full, but Nilp falls there behind the three I mentioned before.
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Old 01-14-2007, 11:04 PM   #2
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Question

Durelin, I am honestly confused as to what you're trying to say in that last post.

Anyhow, I think I'll cast my vote now.

++Thinlómien
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Old 01-14-2007, 11:23 PM   #3
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I think Lommy just had too little time to write posts of more reason (I'll check them when I find time myself). She doesn't have internet at home and her week has been pretty busy, I think.

I'm actually really sad, Anguirel or Anglock Holms isn't a person to be analysed by my manner. It's hopeless... I'd be really relieved if somebody with a skill in thinking more clearly would take the job to go through Anglock.
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Old 01-15-2007, 12:06 AM   #4
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Silmaril Heh.

Quote:
Nilp, I see you're trying to be of help, but why to be hunting only me? Am I getting close to something? (Volo)
Is that hint of a Gift?

Quote:
You're trying to be too safe. Making such diagrams is useful, but it doesn't tell your opinions... (Volo)
Well, I'm sorry if you feel that way, but I prefer to work with the best empirical data I have. You can all you want about some villager or another, but when you vote you make a solid stand for or against someone. Now if only we could get one Wolf toDAY . . . we might bring these halls tumbling down on the others. (Our apologies to Beornómien if that does happen. )

Curse this computer! It's taking so long to load the pages. I need to see what certain people have said to do an analysis. But I must go: French class this time. I hope to be back before the deadline.
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Old 01-15-2007, 12:37 AM   #5
Durelin
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Insanely long post... May want to just skip to my conclusions. I'll tell you this up here, though: this analysis has helped me organize my own thoughts, and strengthened my opinions. I am going to have to keep assuming Ang innocent. If he is a Wolf, he is far too good of one than I could ever even expect him to be. And I am going to continue with my top suspects, as I realize once again I'm not the only one who has been continually troubled by them.

No, there are no links really. Why? Because it's nearly 2 am here. I am not making links till 3.

Just to add on one thing to what you already did for Day 1: Ang returns right before the deadline, and wonders about Volo's flower motif, and then wonders how Spawn ended up with two votes. (I never really paid much attention to that...spawn died that Night. Were the Wolves trying to frame Ang?)

Day 2

He finds Volo a suspect, finding his mentioning of a Twin hint in one of dancing spawn's posts a possible gloat. Says Volo's Eomer vote does not mean much, but he does suspect him. (I beg to differ on that - he knew that those around at that time apparently felt, or seemed to feel, that they should all cooperate. But everyone was hesitating on voting...then Volo votes for Eomer, and it stacks up against him from there.)

Says that Valier's "elusiveness" worries him, even though he knows she's sick. (I agreed, and still do.) Determines that perhaps it isn't a bad idea to go back to suspicions of Day 1, and so is tempted to vote for Kitanna. He misses the vote. (That seems rather innocent to me. He doesn't try terribly hard to give an excuse, and yet he draws attention to the fact that he did not vote. If he was a Wolf, he would have been sneakier about it...or he would have been more likely not to miss the vote at all.)

Day 3

He wonders if Kitanna was right about fearing Boro. Thinks Nogrod opened the way to Lommy voting for Kitanna. Is troubled by Volo's "such wolves are for the Seer to catch" comment about Nogrod and Boro. Suggests the possibility of the Nogrod, Boro, Volo trio.

Defends himself and his criticism of the lynching of innocents, as it was suggested by Boro that he did this to make himself look better.

"The wolves' most deadly weapon, my friends, is consensus." Draws a parallel between one of Boro's posts and one of Volo's, saying that "Unintentionally or through ingenious subtlety, these two players here both encourage a kind of defeatism, suggesting that certain suspects are off-limits, not to be worried about, safe to assume about. That worries me."

Proposes there should be a closer look at Holby. Says he intends to vote for Volo. Thinks Boro is probably innocent.

Defends himself for the same things as before. Does not like focus on same people, same ideas, "consensus." Menel follows up with a screamingly duelist post, Ang reiterates.

Sparring with Boro.

Asks Nogrod questions.

Analyzes Holby HERE. << I think this is good to look at. He concludes she is likely innocent.

Nogrod suspicion... Has an issue with the idea of the "valuable villager," finds it possible that Nogrod and Boro had a "phoney war."

Expresses that the Seer might be in great danger, and we cannot rely on him/her.

Votes Nogrod.

Remarks about Nog and Boro's "love-hate"ness. Predicts Kath is innocent to annoy everyone (at least Boro in particular) further.

ToDay, Day 4

Feels like a fool. (Not alone in that one!) Thinks Boro might have been killed because the Wolves thought he might be the Seer. Says it's interesting to note that Menel was one of Boro's main targets.

Says he is especially suspicious of Menel and Rune, for trying to keep the suspicion on the "big three."

Suspicion of Rune increases, and Volo and Lommy get added to his list, somewhat by association. Says he's still "unsettled by" Menel.

Says he does not suspect Durelin much, or Valier or Nilp.

Defense in response to Volo's start on an analysis. Just read it.

Sugests that Volo stop focusing so much of his attention on him. Replaces Volo on his supect list with Holby because of her comment on Nogrod and Boro being duelling innocents. (So? I thought them to be innocent, too. But then again, I could be in cahoots with Holby, couldn't I?)



Quote:
Originally Posted by Ang
Bomburlass - concision, typical inconspicuousness and seems to know a little too much.

Beorn - formed general alliance with Bofgrod and played something of a second fiddle in accusing me, from my point of view a known innocent. Nailed Eomi's coffin early on. A combination with Bomburlass would indicate a sly wolf-for-wolf vote at one point...hmmm. (Yes, Voloin, I intend to keep saying hmmm. Ha.)

Meneltarbo/Rune - I tend to think that one of these excludes the other, but can't quite decide on which of them looks more wolvish.
And here's my response to you, Ang:

Alright, I know we're into this giving up on the old, tired out suspicions, but you said so yourself, when you began considering voting for Kitanna, that going back to original suspicions might be a good idea. Well, for how long has Volo been discussed seriously as a Wolf? Might it be time to actually back up all our talking with a vote? I am incredibly guilty of not doing this, but I don't think I'm the only one.

I say it again, and I say this to everyone: there are three wolves left alive. We've thought on more than one occasion that we had a crafty Wolf, one hidden under so much that it took some brilliant induction to find him/her. But we haven't found one yet, have we? So why don't we go with what is right before our eyes, what we've been looking at all along... Forget about all the possibilities, and all the intricate ways you can connect people together and to wolfishness. There are too many ways.

Ask yourself, and not just because your therapist tells you to: Who have you consistently felt uneasy about?

For me, it's been Volo and Menel more than anyone else...because I always find Wolfishness about them, but then end up voting for someone else because I think what I see is too "obvious" to be true wolfishness. But everyone knows that things hiding in plain sight are the hardest to find when you expect them to be hiding!
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Old 01-15-2007, 12:46 AM   #6
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Just realized something interesting...

Menel was one of Boro's main suspects. But one of the last analyses Boro did was of Lommy. Menel votes for Lommy. Coincidence is funny sometimes, isn't it.

Another thing I find interesting is that one of his comments on Volo's general behavior is similar to his comment on Lommy's general behavior:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
Okay, I've gone over Volo's posts, and basically I find him rather difficult to place. I can't really find much of a pattern in the people he's been suspicios of...

Thinlomien's suspicions are all over the place and don't leave much of a trail to follow
And yet it takes very little to get him to vote for Lommy, while he does not seem to hold any suspicion of Volo.
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Old 01-15-2007, 02:33 AM   #7
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Dear Anguirel, you accused me of being a second fiddlist. Now, I'm afraid, I will be the first one. You look furrier than any decent being has a right to be. I do not wish to repeat every point Boro, Nogrod, I and others have made against you at the moment, but you really seem wolvish. I'm very sad that although you have gathered a fair amount of suspicion, you've not been lynched this far. I hope today will make a change.

If I had to say who the companions were, I'd go for Menel, recalling what I said and thought yesterDay. Also, Ang who seems very wolvish to me, is suspecting Menel, but not enough to put him in his suspect list. Smells like wolf+wolf -behaviour.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ang
I think that his [Boro's] behaviour towards the end of yesterday may have suggested to his murderers that he was the Seer.
Yes, it might, but I think they (or should I say you) attempted to kill him the night before too. If Holby is right and the "he" was Oddwen's slip... Or maybe the wolves thought they'd have two advantages at once by killing Boro: getting rid of a vocal and intelligent villager who is able to be around late (can sometimes cast the decisive vote) and of getting rid of a probable seer. That's how I see it.

Quote:
I don't, though, think that Nori was killed with the primary purpose of framing me, though that would have been a desirable side-effect. I think that his behaviour towards the end of yesterday may have suggested to his murderers that he was the Seer.
. . .
I don't think that Nori's suspects will necessarily be helpful - a frame-up, intentional or not, is so very likely
Though in other posts you've been saying Boro's death was not probably a frame-up, that little flip-flop didn't escape me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ang, about me
formed general alliance with Bofgrod and played something of a second fiddle in accusing me
Now that the chap is dead, I can as well say it. I thought him to be the seer because of one thing he said. Though his behaviour rang wolvish to me at times, I slightly defended him, because there was a risk of him being the seer. I'm very glad he wasn't the seer and the seer's still alive. As to Noggie thinking I'm innocent, I've no idea where that came from, except of my true nature shining through...


Ang
seems pretty bad to me right now. Him taking the lead doesn't ease my suspicions at all. The big leader-like guys (Boro and Noggie) dead, he gladly steps to the boots and starts to steer the village his way. That is not incriminating per se, but if he's a wolf, that's a very bad thing.

Menel looks bad too. I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that way, though.

Durelin has been quite helpful but I think she's so wrong about Ang... The wolves wouldn't do too bad forming alliances at this phase, when two agreeing people can really make the balance sway. I don't know what to think of her.

Rune is a bit confusing, but his posts from toDay seem innocentish... But it's too fatal a mistake to trust anyone at this phase, and as Rune still lays in my "gray" zone, I don't trust him either...

Volo's a tough one to read... I can't say anything reasonable of him and it bugs me. Mostly he's his normal self though, and that could speak for his innocence. I don't know.

Valier and Holby don't look too suspicious either. But, with the little amount of talk from them, they could be wolves as well: there's too little to go on. Please, talk more.

Anguirel has good reasoning about Nilp's innocence. I'd like to hear more of Nilp's suspicions anyway...

I will be back in a few hours. If there's anything you wish to ask me, please do so.
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Old 01-15-2007, 03:03 AM   #8
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My philosophy teacher deserves to be assigned to the Shire! She said we don't need to be present in the lessons today if we hand her our assignments on Thursday. How could she know I was in the mist of a heated ww-game?

I know why I'm convinced of Ang's guilt, but I see you others maybe don't. In the next 2 hours I will be making an angalysis and if, as I assume, I find it incriminating, also a case against him.
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