WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I just wanted to let you know that I am around now. . .

So 2 out of my 3 top suspects turned out to be innocent and that leaves me with Ang. I now have the choise to leave my crusade and look for other suspects or hold on to my belive that at least one of the three is a wolf. A tough desition. . . .

Ang, if you are sure that either me or Menel is a wolf, then hand me a knife and I shall stap him and move the knife around his central nervous system in perfect, destructive elipse.

[Durelin]

Rune - Okay...so if you stick with your original three, two are dead and innocent, and that leaves you with just one.

But what about the two other wolves?

You say you'd kill Menel...but do you believe he might be a Wolf?

Same with you, Menel. There are three wolves out there, and six villagers. It's time to start drawing connections, broadening your view, particularly since we have a difficult next few days ahead of us unless the Seer miraculously has dreamt of all three wolves (though two of them would be really amazing, as well).

And why exactly do you suspect Rune? Every other post lately it's been "Rune is probably a Wolf." But I haven't seen much action in regards to trying to convince others of it, give compelling reasons, or try and draw connections between him and others you suspect. If there are any others.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, this doesn't look nice. We're running out of people here, and the Wolves are still unscathed. Good news, though, is we still have the Seer. I just hope his dreams are useful, otherwise . . . well, I don't think I need to explain the 'otherwise' to you chaps.

I'll be doing two DAYs's worth of voting analyses . . . although I see Volo's tempting me to go rashly at him again with DAY-opening post.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am fully aware that I only have 1 major suspect and that there are 2 out there, but I would not want to point out random people as my prime suspects.

The killing Menel was a comment of Ang saying that he thought one of us to be a wolf, but only one. I was merely saying "if it is so then Menel is the wolf, because I am innocent"

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Rune

The killing Menel was a comment of Ang saying that he thought one of us to be a wolf, but only one. I was merely saying "if it is so then Menel is the wolf, because I am innocent"

I know that was your response to Ang, but I want to know what you think of Menel.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Well, Menel is very interesting for me too look at as he reminds me of. . . me. One would think it would make it easy for me to spot of he was innocent or not, but it is not so as wolf-me and innocent-me is not all that different.

Anyways at first Menel came off as very innocent looking, voicing some of the same semi-vauge thoughts I was thinking. This is the main reason I have not yet thought of him as a wolf, but I have had a hard time relating to what he has said of late.

wow! I just realised something while reading over Menels latest posts. He is very vauge about everybody exept me, the rest of you he pretty much says "this person could be a wolf" and then he halfway withdraw the statement. really this is a very good tactic for a wolf. In case he is lynched there will be as good as no trace to his fellow wolves. His only suspect is me (innocent) and the rest of you he says pretty much the same thing about.

Now I hope that Durelin is not a very cunning wolf, that by asking simple question can lead people in sertain directions.

[Durelin]

Good point about Menel's "suspicion record" leaving no trace, Rune. (That's why I ask questions, to get good observations like that.) And if he is a Wolf, he has no reason to focus his supposed suspicion, particularly at this point. So far we innocents have done well lynching each other.

Let's look at Valier...

ToDay (Day 4), she's posted only once, but though apparently she had time to list what the Seer should do, she did not have time to suggest what the rest of us should do; as in, who we should lynch.

Day 1 - Not there at all. Was sick. Posts once to say so and apologize. Okay.

Day 2 - Posts three times. Once to apologize for not being there and voting, another to say that she thought Volo was innocent for the same reasons that Menel thought he was, and thinks Menel is innocent because he thought that (everyone was looking at Eomer voters). Then posts again to say that Lommy gets freaked out when she has a special role and that she has a weird feeling about her. Votes Lommy.

Day 3 - Posts three times. Lists everyone left alive, then categorizes them based on suspicion.

Originally Posted by Val

Ok now people I am unsure of are....
Menel
Kath
Durelin
Nilp

People I have suspicion of
Nogrod
Rune
Ang

Innocent?
Volo
Holby
Boro
Lommy

Basically says that Nogrod seems most guilty to her because he is suspicious of people she thinks are innocent. Says that he seems like a Wolf who is trying to get the ordos to kill each other. (Because Wolves might do other things?) Rune and Ang she just has a "feeling" about.

Then posts to agree with Ang about Nogrod. Then she says that she missed Volo's post and realizes now why he is found suspicious (basically because of a connection with Nogrod). But then oddly enough she suggest that he might be hinting at being gifted. Eh? Wot wot? Why isn't he dead yet, killed by the Wolves?

Then posts to say that she's pretty sure two of the wolves are Kath and Rune. At least she's consistent with Rune...but what happened to Nogrod? Oh, yeah, that's right...I voted for Kath right before her. Convenient vote. She also questions Nilp's "scraping by with a post a day" when she herself posts only minimally.

So...she seems to have a routine. Posts once or twice before the voting really starts...then comes back after a while, votes, and leaves. But she is far from consistent in her suspicion. Her way of "suspecting" is much like Menel's.

I hope Holby and Lommy will be able to post soon. Argh, this silence is unnerving. Maybe, Seer, if you have anything at all, it's time to come out. Because we seem not to be getting very far.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

[Times are GMT +8; known innocents are underlined]

08:16am Kitanna - Volo (Volo - 1)
09:12am Farael - Farael (Volo - 1; Farael - 1)
10:23am Valier - Lommy (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 1)
10:31am Durelin - Kath (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 1; Kath - 1)
11:03am Nilp - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 1; Kath - 1; Kitanna - 1)
09:28pm Rune - Valier (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 1; Kath - 1; Kitanna - 1; Valier - 1)
09:52pm Holby - Lommy (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 1; Valier - 1)
10:00pm Menel - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 2; Valier - 1)
11:13pm Lommy - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 3; Valier - 1)
11:21pm Boro - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 4; Valier - 1)
11:22pm Volo - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 5; Valier - 1)
11:22pm Nogrod - Kitanna (Volo - 1; Farael - 1; Lommy - 2 Kath - 1; Kitanna - 6; Valier - 1)

I see little in the voting. Kitanna was suspicious, and she did little to alleviate the suspicion. Volo's post still rankles me, and his explanation . . .

. . . I voted for Kitanna with no of my own reasons. I'll answer now: Kitanna was suspicious, the most suspicious and I trusted Nogrod and the others to have made a right desicion. I was wrong, but I'm sure all of you agree that Kitanna was suspected for a good reason. Voting for anybody who didn't have any votes, that wouldn't have been any better, would it? (Volo)

. . . does little to ease it. The explanation feels too safe, and seems based on hindsight (hindsight always is 20/20) or some other, ill-gotten, knowledge.

DAY 3 analysis will come up next.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, Rune, my suspicions of you are mainly based on my observation that you've mainly tended to cast suspicion on known innocents and make safe votes.

And as for a few others:

It's interesting that after Nogrod died yesterDay, Boromir88 was killed the next night, leaving Anguirel as the only loudmouth. I'd say that the wolves were probably trying to frame him.

Thinlomien's suspicions are all over the place and don't leave much of a trail to follow, though for the first two DAYs she's gotten really nervous near the end of the DAY. She's joined all three of the major bandwagons, and after hurriedly suspecting and voting for Eomer on Day One, she gets really defensive about it the next Day. Overall, she appears somewhat nervous and unsure.As she's only had one wolf ancestor, that being a Fenris Wolf, I find her uneasiness to be incriminating.

[Durelin]

Rune is not a proven innocent, but your vote for him yesterDay was still quite a safe vote, Menel. You were quite safe off in your own little world yesterDay, where Rune was your only real suspect. And your Day 2 vote was a part of the Kitanna bandwagon. I'd call that safe, too.

Though the second vote in a bandwagon is a good place for a Wolf to hide. He/she encourages more votes without actually sealing a person's fate.

[Durelin]

Double posting, because I forgot...

Your reasoning about Lommy is actually quite a lot more compelling than anything you've offered against Rune, Menel.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, I'd just gone over her while I was in the process of making that post, and frankly, I was surprised how well the theory took shape. I'm feeling somewhat inclined to vote for her at this point. I'd say she actually looks more suspicious than Rune does.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

08:46am Kath - Nogrod (Nogrod - 1)
11:16am Menel - Rune (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1)
12:36pm Durelin - Kath (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 1)
12:57pm Valier - Kath (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 2)
03:51pm Nogrod - Kath (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 3)
07:40pm Holby - Lommy (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1)
09:15pm Lommy - Kath (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1)
09:34pm Rune - Ang (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1; Ang - 1)
10:25pm Ang - Nogrod (Nogrod - 2; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1; Ang - 1)
10:25pm Nilp - Volo (Nogrod - 2; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1; Ang - 1; Volo - 1)
10:43pm Boro - Kath (Nogrod - 2; Rune - 1; Kath - 4; Lommy - 1; Ang - 1; Volo - 1)

I really need to go now, as I still have an exam in German that I need to study for. Since it took me a while to make this, and I'd be too lazy to make it again, I'll just leave this as it is and come back to it later to do the promised analysis.

[Durelin]

Menel, do you not understand that if we don't get a Wolf today we are in dire straits? You shrug off your vote with a "Oh, I think I'll just vote now"...not that who you vote for matters.

My quoting of Bob Dylan was not merely because...well, it's Bob Dylan, but also because your post was the perfect example of going whichever way the wind blows. And I didn't need anyone to tell me that. But apparently I'm your weatherman. Or something. You know what, I just like the song...

But I still have an issue with your sudden switch of focus.

You go from "Rune is almost definitely a Wolf" to "Oh, what compelling reasoning against Lommy; thanks for pointing that out, Durelin" and "I'm inclined to vote for her" and then straight to voting for her...with a whole lot of nothing in between.

Originally Posted by Volo

This is nice and all, but I don't go by "trust me, trust you"

I don't think he meant for you to just trust him...I think he just wants you to branch out in your suspicion and analysis. Unless of course you know who you want dead.

Originally Posted by Volo

I'll try to be of help

I look forward to it.

Originally Posted by Volo

Nilp, I see you're trying to be of help, but why to be hunting only me? Am I getting close to something?
You're trying to be too safe. Making such diagrams is useful, but it doesn't tell your opinions...

Just as you pointed out about yourself, Nilp has expressed an issue with time, and said in his last post that his actual analysis of the votings lists will come later.

As for the "why to be hunting only me?"...well, why are (or were?) hunting only Ang (perpetually) and myself? If you're really, seriously suspicious of myself and/or Ang then keep letting us know why. But after all you've said about Ang, you have yet to back up your words and vote for him.

Not that I'm asking you to vote, nor specifically for him. Please, please, everyone...still hold off as long as you can. We have yet to hear a word from Holby or Lommy, we've barely heard anything from Valier, and Nilp will hopefully have an interesting analysis soon. And our Seer might even have a revelation for us...? But I imagine if he/she hasn't stepped forward yet, they don't have much of anything for us...

And my dear Volotson, Anglock's methods are as simple as yours and mine: pure induction. I'll see about going through his posts, even though it is nearing 1 am here...