WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I see two main suspects here, Anguirel and Boromir88.

Can I stress that I'd really rather this did not happen? Everyone, keep your minds open and do not get distracted by possibly mutually misguided duellists. Look all about you, rule out no-one out and watch for casuistry, consequentialism and consensus - the three cs of the lupine code.

[Boromir88]

Can I stress that I'd really rather this did not happen? Everyone, keep your minds open and do not get distracted by possibly mutually misguided duellists.~Anguirelshield

For once I agree with you and this puts some bad light on Menel.

I also did not spend this morning pointlessly "lamenting over the dead"; rather I brought up a possible link between Volo and Nori and/or Bofgrod, which Nori88 seems rather touchy about.

No, I wasn't actually touchy about that, if you look I gave you credit for finally stepping out and proposing something. But your first post of the day was a lamentation.

Anyway Valier and Orilin seems innocent...Runi I'm going to wait and see more of. He seems to be rather joyfully sitting back and watching the action.

Anguirelshield is probably a smooth conniving wolf.

Meneltarbo and Voloin have just started to trouble me.

Nobody else has uttered a word today, which taking a look at things this day is supposedly going to be one of the queit ones. This whole day is frustrating.

[Anguirel]

Bofgrod won't be back for most of today if I recall, which is annoying because I want to inquisit him rather.

Nori88, you snivelling, contumacious, cocky little naysayer of your lord and master, if you want a fight I'm perfectly prepared to give you one. You're being foolish, and blustering, and starting to have to backpedal, and you're infuriatingly stubborn, and if you are none of these but guilty then you are the equal of the Necromancer himself, and I'm still considering that option.

Ha.

[Durelin]

Too bad there's no double...triple...quadruple lynchings. I'd like to off all the perpetually quiet ones... They frighten me because I will never be able to really have any even gut feelings about them...well, other than worry.

Menel - Once again your logic confuses me. Why would you ever suspect Boro and Ang together, and basically for the same reason: that they've gone at each other a bit.

Odd.

Originally Posted by Nori88 or what have you

Anyway Valier and Orilin seems innocent

How boring, Boro! Perhaps I was right in calling you "Boro-lite." You disappoint me.

[Meneltarmacil]

Okay, following the advice on avoiding duelists, I've been looking over Runi's posts.

He seems to post mostly in-character stuff the first Day and has a sort of rivalry going with Nogrod that I find somewhat unusual. The people he suspects have mostly turned out to be known innocents, Valier being an exception.

He makes a couple of statements about it being strange that Nogrod is agreeing with him early on and suspecting the same people he does. Nogrod suddenly starts fighting with him after Runi has repeated that sentiment. This I find quite suspicious. It resembles something werewolves typically do: If one of them is acting suspiciously, one of its furry friends will "suspect" it and mention said suspicious behavior, hoping the other wolf will cease its suspicious actions.

With this in mind, combined with suspicion of known innocents, I find it likely that Runi is a wolf. I'll follow up with an analysis of Nogrod later.

[Nogrod]

Back for an hour+, about. I need to check the situation, but as I saw you Ang had something to ask from me, please do it in near future.

[Boromir88]

Anguirelshield, stubborn I'll take as a compliment, cocky...a little. But I will not have my integrity insulted. Even if you be of nobler blood than me I will not bow to one who insults my integrity. I feel passionate about my brothers, I will argue for them with passion, and I will die for them with passion. Once one wolf is down they will all crumble.

I tell you this Anguirelshield, son of Gurthain II, if you be innocent indeed this scrap does nothing to help us. It only impeeds us, and for that I will move on. But if you be fanged may the wrath of Darael the Deathless and your entire house fall upon you for your treachery. This does not clear you, but we've had all we need to say to eachother, and now it's time to move on to more constructive things. Perhaps we can save this Day yet.


Let me look at the Kitanna voters...there sure be a lot of them:

Nilp
Menel
Thinlo
Volo
Bofgrod

(Excluding me I think that's all of them).

The two here that look the worst are Menel and Volo. Menel seems to be subscribing to a lot of things and just simply moving along with everyone. Pretty much a bandwaggoning wolf. And as Bofgrod and Anguirelshield have reinforced there is a village consensus going on...which means we do have bandwaggoning wolves.

Menel's post about myself and Anguirelshield being the two big suspects is exceedingly strange. On Day 1 he was doing a lot of 'yesing' He agreed with me that Kitanna looked strange, he agreed with Durelin that it was quiet and that wasn't good...only wolves like quietness. Then he jumps onto a Kath vote.

On Day 2 he says I don't worry him as much as before, he's not ready to lynch Nogrod yet and will probably go for Kitanna. All of which was generally what the village was thinking at the time...and this just seems like an over-explanation:

Now if anyone thinks I'm trying to say Volo is completely innocent, that isn't the case. It is possible that he's a wolf; however, he is not at the top of my list.

He tries to tell people that Volo is probably double-bluffing (talking about the Eomi voters), but then goes back to play the 'this doesn't mean he's not a wolf' card.

Menel, Volo is there a connection between those two?

Of the Kitanna voters as well, Bofgrod worries me too. I found him suspicious after his role in the Eomi wagon...and let's take a look at yesterday:

Please give me a bit more credit... Were I a wolf I would have voted conveniently for Glóanna or Kathin about an hour before the deadline (were they innocents) as I had had some points against them earlier and just watched the things unfold with a grin.

Personally I never believe anybody who says things like 'If I were a wolf I would have done things differently' that just gets me more suspicious. As many times my ancestors have been wolves, they have all night to think up some sort of defense. And in any village, any wolf can think of a reasonable defense for any vote they make. Basically I'm not buying the 'if I were a wolf I would have jumped onto Kath and Gloanna.'

Of those who did not vote for Gloanna yesterday, Runi looks the most strange. A definite safe vote for Valier where he probably wouldn't face a lot of pressure for as Valier has been mostly absent and is a good spot to hide if a wolf does not want to stick their paws in the Gloanna lynching.

Edit: x-posted with Durelin, Menel, Nogrod

[Anguirel]

Right. Bofgrod:

1. Why were you so quick to take Gloanna's despairing words as an out and out confession? Could you give us some rationale? Do you regret acting the way you did?

2. Why were you so unwontedly happy to follow the consensus emerging about various suspects, even as, to your credit I suppose, you highlighted it?

3. Would you consider it fair to say that at present you have quite a lot of influence in this house?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Right. Bofgrod:

1. Why were you so quick to take Gloanna's despairing words as an out and out confession? Could you give us some rationale? Do you regret acting the way you did?

2. Why were you so unwontedly happy to follow the consensus emerging about various suspects, even as, to your credit I suppose, you highlighted it?

3. Would you consider it fair to say that at present you have quite a lot of influence in this house?

1.
Here's how Glóanna replied:

I've been in this situation so many times before that I know when my own grave is dug and I don't feel the need to make it any deeper.

My first reaction was astonishment. What is this? Why does she post like that? Is she a wolf who under an avalanche-looking voting (remember how many had said they would probably vote her!) decided to say "okay, that's enough, do your worse", or what? Why should an innocent say something like that? And I posted that question, as you can see on the thread. Then I went back to looking at Voloin's posts as the time was short. Then I saw Beornomien making the very same point openly (which I had only thought myself) and posted that I had had the same feeling about it. And I must admit, that the very fact that Beornómien had read it the same way gave me some confidence that my idea was not too far-fetched.

Do I regret? Of course, a lot. (What do you suppose a fictious wolf-Nogrod would say? eg. what's the point of the question?) But I must say that I have one special reason to regret it as in the "darkest hour" of yesterDay when I felt that the whole village was getting nuts and running rampant fex. after myself with ridiculous points she felt to be almost the only one who seemed to understand what I was doing and what I meant. I first over-read her as trying to make me feel good about her and brought her back to my list - then her last comments sealed it, to me, then. That was a sorry occasion as at one point I really was beginning to remove her from my list and felt good.

2.
I came online quite late as you can all see and was amazed about the common consent that seemed to be building up. So much that I felt a need to mention it in a post so that everyone could see it (if they hadn't already). Why to mention it? Because normally I don't like them. To me they firstly talk of great wolvery than exceptionally witty village. And what concerned me the most was that after reading all there was I tended to agree with the consensus. Had I had like two or three hours then, I would have tried to turn the thing around just to see if there would have been better points (as I very weakly tried indeed at last minutes with Voloin), but I had no real resources and had to play with the things I had - namely looking at Kathin and Glóanna who were my main suspect from the previous Day.

3.
I'm not sure. As one who has been forced to spend almost all of the yesterDay and so far all the time toDay on defending myself instead of trying to make reasonable points getting the wolves, I can't say I feel the way the game goes is in my hands in any way. On the contrary: I feel I'm dancing under the command of the wolves. I probably have some influence in this Hall, I'm not the only one who has, we all have it: some people are more influenced by some, others are more influenced by others - and I myself am influenced by you others too; some more, some less. But as long as I only defend and do not "attack", that is of no use to anyone. So yes and no.

[Kath]

Warning: This is long. It's an analysis of Nogrod and can that guy talk! This is only Day 1 as well, should get the rest up later, I'm writing it as you read this. However, I won't be around tomorrow (RL) which means I have to do as much of this as I can and vote toNight. I hope to get it finished but with how long it's taken so far it may not be possible. Anyway sorry this didn't go up yesterDay but thanks to powercuts there was simply no way it could.

Nogrod:

Day 1:
Post 13: Agrees with Rune that it may be the three non-dwarves that are the wolves. Which actually hasn't been disproved since Valier, Lommy and Menel are all still alive. Believes the Twins to be good. Pretty standard opening comment.

Post 16: Then says it's too convenient for the non-dwarves to be the wolves, except maybe it's not - flip-floppy and unable to come to a conclusion. Look, I know this is all based around what was obviously a joke, but it doesn't mean you can't get relevant information from it. Don't look at the specific words but what they show. He's covering his back.

Post 20: Again covering himself somewhat, and I'm not sure why he says everyone should look at Boro. If both Boro and Nogrod are wolves it may make sense for one to mention the other just in passing on Day 1. That way if one is later lynched and we look back at what they said there isn't an obvious omission.

Post 30: He then clears Boro, saying he would not wish to vote for him, but does not seem to have 'looked at' him as he said should happen. About halves the village, suspecting those who had barely posted and thinking those who had posted more innocent. His innocent list consisted of Boro, spawn, Farael, Volo and Ang, though Ang was almost an afterthought. Two of that list are now dead and have been found innocent. If Nogrod is a wolf I think it's likely that one wolf would have been put in this innocent list.

Post 34: Mentions suspicion of Gloanna, and says that he does think her suspicious but not overly so.

Post 35: Apologises for misspelling Boro's name ... I think.

Post 57: Lists the voting so far and the reasons for said votes.

Post 61: Wonders how Rune found Menel innocent, saying that if both were wolves Rune wouldn't have said it. Thinks Lommy may be wolvish because she isn't being original, but says he'll give her the benefit of the doubt. Says Nilp and Valier shouldn't be voted for because they haven't had a chance to post. Wary of Durelin and Eomer because they posted little and left early.

Post 63: Argues with Eomer saying that analysis is good on Day 1 as it heightens the chance of catching a wolf. Yes it does, but if a wolf is orchestrating the analysis it can lower the chance, and it was Nogrod who tried to move everyone away from the in-character stuff.

Post 66: Notes that although Eomer says Day 1 posting has value when looked at in retrospect, Eomer's own posting would tell people nothing, and thinks this suspicious. True indeed. Nogrod pushed for Eomer's lynch and got it, and that's a shame because I would have loved to see whether he made it through the first Night and how Nogrod would have dealt with it either way.

Post 67: Agrees with Lommy that Kath seems suspicious for thinking Lommy's post had good points, thus indirectly backing up his earlier claim that Lommy is not being as good a player as she could be.

Post 73: I'm a mite confused. He says he doesn't want Boro lynched until the Seer is dead. Why not? If Boro is innocent the Seer isn't about to tell anyone, at least not unless he/she dreams of Boro and then the three wolves. But if the Seer dies without giving such a list there is no evidence to prove him guilty or innocent. Just seems an odd thing to say. Same goes for what he says about spawn. Wants Lommy and Ang alive. Some suspicion over Gloanna and Kath who may possibly be working together, a theory now disproved, and thinks that at least one is a wolf. Repeats suspicion of Eomer and says he is also somewhat suspicion of Durelin and will look at her later.

Post 79: Looks at Durelin and mentions that though she mentions Kath's lack of talking she also considers this normal. I think Nogrod is wondering whether this means the two are working together or not. Thinks Naria and Menel were trying to hide in the majority by voting with the tide. Naria may well have been but she was no wolf, the same can't yet be said for Menel.

Post 83: Gives a voting list and mentions that the Finns are the ones who will decide the lynch.

Post 87: Suspicion of Gloanna, Kath and Eomer. Seems to be downgrading Gloanna as a suspect after what Boro said (taking advice?) and Eomer as well to some extent saying he is too hard to get a handle on.

Post 88: Asks if anyone is willing to help lynch Eomer. It's so blatant, he wants Eomer dead. Would a wolf be that bold? Nogrod plays safe a lot of the time but he is a very good player ... I wouldn't put it past him.

Post 92: Votes Eomer and tells Lommy not to just not vote.

Post 96: Not sure what he's advising people to do, it almost looks like he's trying either to save Eomer or to get a double lynch. What were you up to Nogrod?

Post 101: Points out the deadline.

Eomer was susbsequently lynched and found to be innocent.

Now, it's probably obvious to all that I began that thinking Nogrod guilty so please if you got through it and you're still awake comment on it, give me some perspectives! Right now I've got consipiracy theories a mile long round this guy and it's possible not one is right, I need some input.

From Day 1 I think it's possible that Boro or Ang could be fellow wolves if Nogrod is one, but I think it unlikely that both would be. I'm aware that leaves a third slot open, but from this I don't know who would fill that.

[Nogrod]

What a mess...

Now how come, when my line is innocent all the people find me suspicious at least a couple of Days or the wolves kill me the first or second Night, but when my family-members are cobblers or wolves, they slip trusted to the end if the Seer does not come in between...

Well, I'm very short on time toDay and I have a feeling that the wolves wish to get me done with. YestrerDay I had time to fight back, but toDay I won't be. So if they manage to turn your minds to serve their mischevious ends, look closely tomorrow who have been the ones to keep this recurring suspicion of myself rolling. Not probably the ones who are the loudest, but those who add to it some little bits to keep the "case" going.

Some answers first, but then I really don't think I should use my scarce minutes on this. (Okay, I know you can't trust my word - but do not go with every whimsical idea some malignant creatures offer you either)

Originally Posted by Nori88

Personally I never believe anybody who says things like 'If I were a wolf I would have done things differently' that just gets me more suspicious.

Personally I can't say I would categorically believe or disbelieve any kind of thing. It depends on who says it and what s/he seems to imply with it. Think of the context, please. If I was most worried about my own skin (ordo or wolf) I should have done just as I said I should have: voted not too early but early enough, for someone about whom I had raised some points already. That's probably the reason my family doesn't get suspected when they're on the dark side as then they play carefully, trying to save their necks. But as an innocent I just try to do whatever I can. Sometimes it goes right, sometimes it goes wrong.

Ok. I saw Ang had questions to me. I'll leave this here this time...