Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Lalwendë · 12-28-2006, 04:21 PM

Oh 'eck, a triple posting. But I have just had a thought. Yes, I do have them sometimes...

We have one person who we ought to be able to easily identify now there are so few of us. And that's the cobbler for the surviving wolf! This cobbler knows who 'their' wolf is. They don't know who the other cobbler is. The wolf does not know who the cobblers are, either of them.

In theory, if we can identify who that cobbler is, they should lead us to the wolf.

So who seems to be defending someone else? Either outright or by deflecting comments and suspicions subtly?

Nogrod · 12-28-2006, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

In theory, if we can identify who that cobbler is, they should lead us to the wolf.

So who seems to be defending someone else? Either outright or by deflecting comments and suspicions subtly?

Nice to see you are getting the grip of this!

I'm sorry to repeat myself here but as it seems reasonable, I'll do it. Mac is urging us to go for the cobbler:

Quote:

What I'm saying is: If in doubt, go for the cobbler

Hello! We have only one Dance left if we don't manage it toDance! Let's go for the wolf, I say. If Mac is a wolf, he would love to try make us think like he suggests. And look how Farael defends Mac after he had gotten some suspicion:

Quote:

If we are fairly sure whom a cobbler may be, as I am of Macalure then it is on our best interests to ignore him and try to find the Wolf with our two remaining lynches.

So ignore Mac and lynch some others? Well why do you wish to not-lynch someone? Because a cobbler Farael wishes us to save his master Macalaure?

Even as I dislike double-lynches, I might like to see the one with Mac and Farael. At least the moment it looks like our best chance.

I need to go asleep, but toDance I will be back and remain online in the end. I also hope to have time to check both Lal and Holby, and also Cailín before I vote. We need some more information and if anyone of you has time I would welcome your help with it. It's a bit of a workload to do these all by oneself (see yesterDance).

Cailín · 12-28-2006, 05:18 PM

Eomer…

… why?

There are no words dramatic, painful and bitter enough for this tragedy. There was no need. No reasoning. And yet he was forced to die in the interest of the village: and how noble he appeared when he decided not to act in self-interest, how bravely did he accept this dreadful, undeserved fate.

And for what? For what? *weeps*

Now you expect me to reason, to use cold-blooded logic and find the final wolf? Ooh, how could I? It is too much.

++ Cailín

…

…

But no. I must be strong. Those evil, demonic, treacherous creatures responsible for my beloved's untimely death should pay before I join him in the afterlife. And they shall.

-- Cailín

*sigh* We will meet again, dearest.

***

I feel quite clueless and back at ground zero today. There are three baddies against three innocents. Our advantage is that the baddies do not know one another, except for the final wolf's Cobbler. Lalwende is right: this cobbler could lead us to the wolf and would be a great catch, but the only problem is we will never know for sure who he or she is before the end (unless we force a full confession, but that seems impratical) and all in all it seems much safer to look for the wolf. Maybe the cobbler who knew of Celuien's true identity is as lost as we are and supporting the wrong candidate. Our primary disadvantage here is that the innocents do not know each other at all.

I wish that there was someone to trust, but after yesterdance's slaughter, I just don't know anymore. That neither Naria or Valier turned out to be cobblers or fanged… I was stunned. I knew Eomer and Mormegil were innocent: or at least, was almost 100% certain. I am not sure what drove them to the madness of yesterdance's proceedings. It was reckless.

At the moment, I am inclined to trust Nogrod. Indeed - I am rather surprised he is still alive and this makes me a little suspicious, but he has not alarmed me at all these past few days and today continues to be calm and logical, analysing and describing all different scenarios. I am going with a gut feeling here.

Farael… I am surprised that so many loudmouths are still around. What I am thinking is that Folwren was chosen because the wolf was nearly certain she was not one of the cobblers. It is evidently in the wolf's best interest to keep the cobblers alive as long as possible. This theory seems to point in the direction of Farael - Folwren voted for him two dances ago and was highly suspicious of him since the start of this ball of doom. Then again, would a wolf really be so obvious as Farael? I do not know. It sounds unlikely, but not impossible.

I was almost convinced Farael was a cobbler yesterdance, but his posts today have confused me on this issue again. Still, I do not trust him.

Lalwende… tricky. I found most of her posts obscure before, but am nodding along with some of it today. If she, as a newbie (you must be tired of hearing this, Lalwende, so I do apologise) is the final wolf, well done to her. I am not dismissing her from my suspect list, but she has recently - and especially yesterdance - been silent so it is hard to pass judgement on her.

Macalaure is extremely ambiguous. I suspect him - rather strongly - of cobblerism and even possible wolvishness at the moment. His attack on Eomer yesterdance does not sit well with me (and for more than just personal reasons). Again, I feel he is going for the likely prey today, as he did before and before. Yes, I will not forget his hand in Celuien's death, and this does clear him to a certain degree, but what I did not believe of Mormegil, I could believe of Mac.

Holbytlass is also a little obscure. As I said yesterdance, her playing style reminds rather strongly of Wolf-Celuien's style. She manages to fly under the - or my - radar (I think it is something she is famous for). I cannot, though, find strong evidence for her furriness. She could as easily be completely ordinary and innocent as wickedly evil.

So who out of these five is the wolf?

I confess, I have no straight answer.

I would favour a lynching of Farael or Macalaure today, though I am swaying beyond belief. Both seem suspicious, too suspicious to be innocent.

Let's avoid a double lynch in any case, Nogrod. If we fail to find the wolf, this will doom us no matter the turn out. At least - I think it best.

Cailín · 12-28-2006, 05:21 PM

Oh and Nogrod: I am sorry you have to do all analysis by yourself. I am usually no good with long sum-up posts, nor do I take particular pleasure in making them, which is why I gladly leave it to others.

However, I will probably have some time tomorrow to look through everyone's posts.

Farael · 12-28-2006, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And look how Farael defends Mac after he had gotten some suspicion: So ignore Mac and lynch some others? Well why do you wish to not-lynch someone? Because a cobbler Farael wishes us to save his master Macalaure?

Noggy, you are being obtuse here.... it's the same thing you've proposed!! Don't go for the cobbler, try to get the wolf!!! I'm not defending Macalure but tell me... do you trully believe him a wolf? If you do, by all means lynch me and him... but I say he is a cobbler, thus we are better off lynching someone else!!

You know my playing style from many games, and you know I don't mind getting killed if it's indeed what's best for the village, but double-lynching me today will pretty much seal the baddie's victory, unless you lynch me along the werewolf. And since I believe Macalure to be a cobbler, Lynching him and me won't work.

Lawlende has talked but I don't see her saying much... Cailin has posted little, but I think she's had something to say. I feel a bit better about her now, but I'd like to hear some more from her anyway.

12-28-2006, 04:21 PM	#1
Lalwendë A Mere Boggart Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: under the bed Posts: 4,737	Oh 'eck, a triple posting. But I have just had a thought. Yes, I do have them sometimes... We have one person who we ought to be able to easily identify now there are so few of us. And that's the cobbler for the surviving wolf! This cobbler knows who 'their' wolf is. They don't know who the other cobbler is. The wolf does not know who the cobblers are, either of them. In theory, if we can identify who that cobbler is, they should lead us to the wolf. So who seems to be defending someone else? Either outright or by deflecting comments and suspicions subtly? __________________ Gordon's alive!

12-28-2006, 05:18 PM	#3
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	*stares blankly in the distance* Eomer… … why? There are no words dramatic, painful and bitter enough for this tragedy. There was no need. No reasoning. And yet he was forced to die in the interest of the village: and how noble he appeared when he decided not to act in self-interest, how bravely did he accept this dreadful, undeserved fate. And for what? For what? weeps Now you expect me to reason, to use cold-blooded logic and find the final wolf? Ooh, how could I? It is too much. ++ Cailín … … But no. I must be strong. Those evil, demonic, treacherous creatures responsible for my beloved's untimely death should pay before I join him in the afterlife. And they shall. -- Cailín sigh We will meet again, dearest. *** I feel quite clueless and back at ground zero today. There are three baddies against three innocents. Our advantage is that the baddies do not know one another, except for the final wolf's Cobbler. Lalwende is right: this cobbler could lead us to the wolf and would be a great catch, but the only problem is we will never know for sure who he or she is before the end (unless we force a full confession, but that seems impratical) and all in all it seems much safer to look for the wolf. Maybe the cobbler who knew of Celuien's true identity is as lost as we are and supporting the wrong candidate. Our primary disadvantage here is that the innocents do not know each other at all. I wish that there was someone to trust, but after yesterdance's slaughter, I just don't know anymore. That neither Naria or Valier turned out to be cobblers or fanged… I was stunned. I knew Eomer and Mormegil were innocent: or at least, was almost 100% certain. I am not sure what drove them to the madness of yesterdance's proceedings. It was reckless. At the moment, I am inclined to trust Nogrod. Indeed - I am rather surprised he is still alive and this makes me a little suspicious, but he has not alarmed me at all these past few days and today continues to be calm and logical, analysing and describing all different scenarios. I am going with a gut feeling here. Farael… I am surprised that so many loudmouths are still around. What I am thinking is that Folwren was chosen because the wolf was nearly certain she was not one of the cobblers. It is evidently in the wolf's best interest to keep the cobblers alive as long as possible. This theory seems to point in the direction of Farael - Folwren voted for him two dances ago and was highly suspicious of him since the start of this ball of doom. Then again, would a wolf really be so obvious as Farael? I do not know. It sounds unlikely, but not impossible. I was almost convinced Farael was a cobbler yesterdance, but his posts today have confused me on this issue again. Still, I do not trust him. Lalwende… tricky. I found most of her posts obscure before, but am nodding along with some of it today. If she, as a newbie (you must be tired of hearing this, Lalwende, so I do apologise) is the final wolf, well done to her. I am not dismissing her from my suspect list, but she has recently - and especially yesterdance - been silent so it is hard to pass judgement on her. Macalaure is extremely ambiguous. I suspect him - rather strongly - of cobblerism and even possible wolvishness at the moment. His attack on Eomer yesterdance does not sit well with me (and for more than just personal reasons). Again, I feel he is going for the likely prey today, as he did before and before. Yes, I will not forget his hand in Celuien's death, and this does clear him to a certain degree, but what I did not believe of Mormegil, I could believe of Mac. Holbytlass is also a little obscure. As I said yesterdance, her playing style reminds rather strongly of Wolf-Celuien's style. She manages to fly under the - or my - radar (I think it is something she is famous for). I cannot, though, find strong evidence for her furriness. She could as easily be completely ordinary and innocent as wickedly evil. So who out of these five is the wolf? I confess, I have no straight answer. I would favour a lynching of Farael or Macalaure today, though I am swaying beyond belief. Both seem suspicious, too suspicious to be innocent. Let's avoid a double lynch in any case, Nogrod. If we fail to find the wolf, this will doom us no matter the turn out. At least - I think it best.

12-28-2006, 05:21 PM	#4
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	Oh and Nogrod: I am sorry you have to do all analysis by yourself. I am usually no good with long sum-up posts, nor do I take particular pleasure in making them, which is why I gladly leave it to others. However, I will probably have some time tomorrow to look through everyone's posts.