Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Cailín]

I must say I agree with the lynching of suspicious characters. We are at the moment 8 innocents against 3 villains, of whom two are almost powerless, pitiful creatures. Aside from myself, there are several people in whose innocence I am fairly confident.

Therefore:

++FARAEL

He may be our second wolf, but I am as certain as one can be in this game that he is at least a baddie.

Naria may also very well be a tricksy, fanged creature and I would not be sorry to see her lynched either.

[Macalaure]

Eomer of the Rohirrim:


First Dance:

86
Some cobbler theory. His points is that theory about them is okay, but actual accusations of cobblery are useless.
Rikae and Farael (and Cailín, of course) are innocent to him, he gives reasons
Kath, Valier, Naria and Lalwende are suspicious, no reasons

88+96
More cobbler theory

107
Accuses Nogrod of using his smilies as a tactic
Defends his cobbler theorism

117
Agrees with Nogrod to turn to more pressing issues
Jokingly accuses Holby of scaremongering

124
Votes his suspect Kath to avoid double lynching

125
Starts talking about the time near the deadline


Everything he says makes sense. He avoids to be aggressive or argumentative about his suspicions. His vote is reasonable. Perfect good guy.
Too perfect good guy to me, but this is just the first dance, and if you don't have a good argument against someone, it's better not to make one up.


Second Dance:

136
Apologises to Kath
Thinks Rikae and morm innocent because of Kitanna's death, doubts wolves would play so risky at this stage

183
Says Kitanna was killed because of her vote or voters
Reaches the conclusion that Valier is suspicious, mostly because she reached different conclusions than he
Believes Nogrod is innocent

197
Suspicious about Folwren because of her defense
Votes Valier saying: "Even if we fail today (mathematically probable) we have good stuff to look back on the coming days."


On its own, his suspicions or Valier are not suspicious. But at this time we have already two votes for and a devastating accusal by Nogrod of her. Eomer obviously doesn't want to upset too many people by being suspicious of them. The one he goes after is someone who is already on the list of many others. His suspicion of Folwren falls into the same category, I think.
Then there's the sentence I quoted. I've seen many a wolf saying things like that to not make people worry about a lynched innocent.


Third Dance:

226
Rhetorical questions about Naria (including use of smilies)
Says everything about her is suspicious

231
Asks Naria what I said that made her change her vote. Doesn't see anything revolutionary in what I said
Says he doesn't need to elaborate why everything about Naria is suspicious

252
Rikae's death is over-analysed
Defends himself against my suspicion, bringing the smilies up again
Says I'm scaremongering and trying "to whip up an anti-Eomer frenzy"

261
Says Valier's suspicious because of her confusion
Says that the remaining wolf has to do an incredible job, so there's no reason to worry
Thinks we should no longer distinguish between supposed cobblers and supposed wolves.


Again, he goes after the one who is already high on many people's radar. The way he does it is highly suspicious in my mind, using rhetorical questions and giving no solid reasons besides smilies. I wonder why he's trying to lead us away from looking at Rikae.
I think his last post goes over the top. Sure, our chances are pretty good right now, but there's surely no reason for us to be as careless as he wants us to. Especially not with two cobblers around.

I'm testing the waters with:

++Eomer

I hope somebody joins me, if not, I'll be looking for something else. I see a showdown between morm and Naria coming.

[Valier]

Ok so I will be here right till the end, my work is slow so I have more time. I am still trying to work this out, but my main suspects are. Nogrod, Mormegil, Farael, Eomer. I am pretty sure we will find all our bad guys in this group. Do we dare do a double lynch toDance? What do others think? There are still four people to vote and there is retractables. What say you all?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh I am definitely sticking around to try and get a double-lynching. Preferably with Valier and Naria but I'm all for lobbing Mac in there too.

I don't even know what to say about your analysis of me Mac, other than there's nothing suspicious in what I've done. It's almost as if you find me suspicious because I'm not suspicious.

[Valier]

I know there has been some suspicion around me todance Eomer, but enough for me to be a double lynch candidate? You say kill Naria and myself and if not you will just lob Mac in there? Wow that seems pretty fishy...are you a little jumpy for some reason? I would like to see Mormegil and Eomer go toDance. Does anyone else agree with this?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Weren't you prime candidate yesterday, until that late surge for Celuien? That means yes, there is enough suspicion around you to make you a double-lynch candidate.

[Valier]

Fair enough Eomer. I do understand I am suspicious. If others wish me to die toDance, ok then, but I want Mormegil or you to go with me.

[mormegil]

I willingly submit myself if Naria, Valier, Farael or Mac is my running mate. If I go I assert that Noggie is innocent.

--Mac

++Naria

She really is a key player in unravelling this mystery. She may only be a cobbler but I think she's likely a wolf. Mac is starting to sound a bit more sincere to me, which is why I changed my vote. Farael is tough because he usually behaves this way but it would be easy for a wolf Farael to behave the same way.

What I find most telling is that there are two groups in general terms. Those who think the four above are suspicious and those who do not. It is almost divided perfectly that those three or four do not suspect each other at all and I find that fact alone very telling. How is it that everybody else finds at least one of the three suspicous and the four don't find each other suspicious at all.