Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 12-22-2006, 07:51 AM

So 13 remaining of which 4 we wish to get rid of. So one of every three, about.

Here's what I think now.

Folwren - Might be a wolf. Probably my best candidate for it now. Which is not much.

Valier - Could be a cobbler. Mac says she's too nervous to be a wolf. So nervous of what if she's innocent? Maybe she's a cobbler indeed? That would be nerve-wrecking (just think about being afraid from both sides and not able to play for the village victory openly) and explain her nervousness?

Farael - I can't see him as a wolf, at least for the time being. Too loud, too risky. Innocent or cobbler then?

Naria - I'm very much afraid of. Hard to tell but known to perform well when under radar.

mormegil - Could be anything but I wouldn't lynch someone who is not able to defend himself because of RL reasons (but I do hope he will be more involved on Dance3).

Lalwendë - I'm bit confused about her. She seems to be as clever as she always is. Still she seems to pick up somewhat dubious tracks every now and then. It might be newbieness to the game, but with her intelligence I wouldn't put it past her to use that fact to her advantage.

Macalaure - I'm getting to see as back to his considerate self. He might pull it out as a wolf surely, but I would not be voting him today. As I said during the last Dance, he's too good to lynch with light grounds. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look at him closely from time to time.

Rikae - She has been here and there and still I can't quite say what she is. That kind of bothers me. If I would have more time during this Dance I would like to check her next, but unfortunately the clock is ticking too fast to me right now. If we both are alive tomorrow I'll be reading her more closely.

Celuien, Eomer, Cailín, Holbytlass - Sad to say, but I have no clear opinion about these people but that they have posted considered posts. They all look reasonable and cool. And that kind of makes me nervous too. If I'm wrong with my considerations of guilt (those in the head of my list here) and we should see this through pure mathematics, then there should be at least one baddie in this quartet. Pinning the one down would be very hard indeed as the others surely are helpful players none of whom I would want to lose... (although Holby and Eomer have been mostly quiet today)

Nogrod · 12-22-2006, 08:06 AM

I must quit this Dance now and am most torn between my choices. Voting this early is not nice indeed.

Should I go for a possible wolf and vote for Folwren? She being a wolf seems possible, but I don't know how probable it is...

Should I go for a more believable cobbler and vote for Valier? I don't like bandwaggons, even less early ones, but then again her nervousness would speak even more on behalf of her being the cobbler... But getting a cobbler doesn't equal getting a wolf.

Or should I go to the common denominator of my prime suspects (of which both probably are not true but another might be?) and vote for Naria that I both am afraid of and who could be implied by the steady defence of the silent-ones of both Folwren and Valier? (That would mean that either one should be a cobbler who knows Naria to be the wolf - and basically Folwren, if she is a villain, looks more like a wolf than a cobbler to me)

Gah!

I'll go for the wolf.

++ Folwren

Hope you others have more time to discuss the pros and cons of different possibilities...

Folwren · 12-22-2006, 09:43 AM

The countess smiles a very small smile and a cold laugh escapes her.

It is very strange to be suspected. (As Foley, I really don't know how I'm going to go about to make a feelingless post when so violently attacked...)

Have I not explained myself to you people several times? My concept is not difficulty, and to my knowledge, it hasn't changed. Dullness of wit, perhaps, keeps you from seeing that.

Nogrod, because you have left and claim that you are not coming back, I suppose I can not change your mind, but I have yet have time, perhaps, to say something that will keep the others from believing you and following your lead. Of course, I am also terribly tempted to let myself be killed. It would be poetic justice, I think, if I were to die and you could see your mistake. All your careful reasoning and thought would come to nothing and you'd have to start over. But, no...I would the true dancers win this round and not let the wolves take over.

Before I make any defence, I will comment on others.

Farael, I don't like your excuses. I don't like them at all. To early in the day to know who was quiet and who wasn't? Well, it was obvious that I certainly wasn't. Perhaps if I had talked less, and not been so bold in some posts, you would vote for someone else who talked enough to make themselves suspicious?

I have no new comments on Mormegil because he is not able to post here today. Nothing new except this - I am inclined to believe that he is not a wolf. I think that if I were wolf and I could not be here for a day, I would not bother to vote. That could be taken incorrectly, people might suspect, it's too dangerous. Besides that, wolves get to kill who they like at night. I wouldn't risk absentee voting.

I have not really paid much attention to Naria. Right now, I am going through all this second Dance's posts. It just struck me a moment ago...Valier said this in her first post of this Dance:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valier

Well the first day kill is usually one made well sort of in spite, the wolves can kill pretty much anyone they want the first day and have it not really point to anyone and if it does that could just be a way for them to desguise themselves as innocent.

I am not certain, but I think it makes more sense if she meant to say night instead of first day. Anyhow, she says this, and then Naria say:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Naria

Mac, Yes I read through everything and yes I knew the situation. Simply put, I voted for her out of spite.

The word 'spite' when talking about killing is brought up again. But this time, it is clear that she was talking about her vote. As for as I understand it, one doesn't generally vote out of spite to kill someone.

But that could just be coincidence...

Valier does seem strangely anxious to appear innocent, BUT her posts of defense have been directed towards Farael because Farael is wanting to lynch the quiet ones and Valier is one of those players who (in my experience) is habitually quiet. I've seen her playing a wolf a couple times and she generally does a really good job of appearing innocent, but she does it in a quiet way, going unnoticed and managing to travel through the game without great fits of trying to explain her innocence when there is no way to tell for certain. I do not have any opinion about her following my lead on voting for Farael. It's a free country, isn't it? (Sorry, that's a joke from our house.) And it's possible that he's guilty, isn't it? On the other hand, it was an easy vote for Valier.

As of this dance, Farael has been consistant. He even voted for a person who is quiet! (But Morm's quiet because he can't help but be quiet.) As some people have mentioned. Farael has managed to keep the conversation wholly on his plan of action, posting many times about it.

Nogrod has been very helpful by bringing up two very strong cases against Valier and myself. He is a strong ally, smart and willing to think things over, and he is a dangerous enemy. I am sorry to have made him suspicious of me, because if he really wants to, I'm sure he could tear me down and get me killed, regardless of my innocence.

I am tending towards letting Lalwende remain unsuspected in my mind. Until either I get more time to consider everyone's votes, or she writes more, I am not going to try to talk myself into suspecting her.

Eomer has posted few times, but he tends to make sense, mostly. My only quarrel with him is the fact that he voted for Kath when I thought she was probably innocent.

I find Celuien's words to make sense. Cailin, too, is nonsuspicious.

I have been distracted all morning (customers coming in and out of the store) and this post is taking me ages to write. I apologize. I'm going to send this and then post again with answers to my accusers.

-- Folwren

Folwren · 12-22-2006, 09:45 AM

Cross posted with Holbytlass's vote.

Valier · 12-22-2006, 09:59 AM

Sigh..Well I can't say I am happy with all this suspision and voting for me, but hey what can I do? I have only about and hour before I must leave for work. I will not spend this time defending myself as I don't think anything I have said is overly Wolvish. Yes I am a bit defensive, but I really wanted to stay around and help the village this time. I know I can be an asset later on in the game, but others seem to think not. Well Here's my lists...

Innocent?
Folwren
Macalaure
Mormegil
Lalwende

Baddies?
Farael
Rikae
Nogrod
Eomer

Not sure
Holby
Cailin
Celuien
Naria

I have no really clear feelings for anyone yet, but I am sure this will pass and things will become more clear as the dances go by. If I am to die, then so be it. I hope you all have the sense to bring someone else down with me just in case you are wrong about me, you may just get a baddie in the process. I will be rereading for this next hour and I will vote before I must go.

Macalaure · 12-22-2006, 10:35 AM

Celuien

15 Early suspicions, not serious

18 talks about silent ones
27 more of the same, wants us to look for the misleading and inconsistent

38 agrees with Rikae about avoidance of topics/persons

69 sums up her non-suspicions
70 typo

91 stuff about cobblers
94 corrects my misunderstanding

101 vote tally - votes morm, because his behaviour's jumping out the most
116 tally, again
127 tally...

128 confirms Eomer of the time problems

137 analysis of Kitanna, no findings

151 says Valier's a bit jumpy

156 talks about Farael's ideas
157 "Crossed with Folwren. Nothing more to add."
159 tells us she's short on time

171 votes Valier because she's jumpy and consistently defensive
She's not sure about morm's behaviour
Everyone else is more or less innocent to her

I used to be suspicious about her, because she's been uncontroversial. Rereading her posts, I had no idea how uncontroversial. She's only suspicious of mormegil and Valier, the most obvious (because the two are most perceivably strange) picks if you don't want to offend anybody and turn his/her eyes on yourself. Her votes are utterly safe. She's very nice to everybody, which is not a bad, but a remarkable thing. Except the ones she voted for, she confirms everybody to look innocent to her.
She told us to look at misleading and inconsistent ones. She, at the same time is leading nobody nowhere except along known tracks and is very thoughtful not to be inconsistent.

Let us assume Farael is a cobbler, loud and distracting, then Celuien is the perfect corresponding werewolf.

++Celuien

12-22-2006, 07:51 AM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	So 13 remaining of which 4 we wish to get rid of. So one of every three, about. Here's what I think now. Folwren - Might be a wolf. Probably my best candidate for it now. Which is not much. Valier - Could be a cobbler. Mac says she's too nervous to be a wolf. So nervous of what if she's innocent? Maybe she's a cobbler indeed? That would be nerve-wrecking (just think about being afraid from both sides and not able to play for the village victory openly) and explain her nervousness? Farael - I can't see him as a wolf, at least for the time being. Too loud, too risky. Innocent or cobbler then? Naria - I'm very much afraid of. Hard to tell but known to perform well when under radar. mormegil - Could be anything but I wouldn't lynch someone who is not able to defend himself because of RL reasons (but I do hope he will be more involved on Dance3). Lalwendë - I'm bit confused about her. She seems to be as clever as she always is. Still she seems to pick up somewhat dubious tracks every now and then. It might be newbieness to the game, but with her intelligence I wouldn't put it past her to use that fact to her advantage. Macalaure - I'm getting to see as back to his considerate self. He might pull it out as a wolf surely, but I would not be voting him today. As I said during the last Dance, he's too good to lynch with light grounds. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look at him closely from time to time. Rikae - She has been here and there and still I can't quite say what she is. That kind of bothers me. If I would have more time during this Dance I would like to check her next, but unfortunately the clock is ticking too fast to me right now. If we both are alive tomorrow I'll be reading her more closely. Celuien, Eomer, Cailín, Holbytlass - Sad to say, but I have no clear opinion about these people but that they have posted considered posts. They all look reasonable and cool. And that kind of makes me nervous too. If I'm wrong with my considerations of guilt (those in the head of my list here) and we should see this through pure mathematics, then there should be at least one baddie in this quartet. Pinning the one down would be very hard indeed as the others surely are helpful players none of whom I would want to lose... (although Holby and Eomer have been mostly quiet today) __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

12-22-2006, 08:06 AM	#2
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	I must quit this Dance now and am most torn between my choices. Voting this early is not nice indeed. Should I go for a possible wolf and vote for Folwren? She being a wolf seems possible, but I don't know how probable it is... Should I go for a more believable cobbler and vote for Valier? I don't like bandwaggons, even less early ones, but then again her nervousness would speak even more on behalf of her being the cobbler... But getting a cobbler doesn't equal getting a wolf. Or should I go to the common denominator of my prime suspects (of which both probably are not true but another might be?) and vote for Naria that I both am afraid of and who could be implied by the steady defence of the silent-ones of both Folwren and Valier? (That would mean that either one should be a cobbler who knows Naria to be the wolf - and basically Folwren, if she is a villain, looks more like a wolf than a cobbler to me) Gah! I'll go for the wolf. ++ Folwren Hope you others have more time to discuss the pros and cons of different possibilities... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

12-22-2006, 09:59 AM	#5
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	Sigh..Well I can't say I am happy with all this suspision and voting for me, but hey what can I do? I have only about and hour before I must leave for work. I will not spend this time defending myself as I don't think anything I have said is overly Wolvish. Yes I am a bit defensive, but I really wanted to stay around and help the village this time. I know I can be an asset later on in the game, but others seem to think not. Well Here's my lists... Innocent? Folwren Macalaure Mormegil Lalwende Baddies? Farael Rikae Nogrod Eomer Not sure Holby Cailin Celuien Naria I have no really clear feelings for anyone yet, but I am sure this will pass and things will become more clear as the dances go by. If I am to die, then so be it. I hope you all have the sense to bring someone else down with me just in case you are wrong about me, you may just get a baddie in the process. I will be rereading for this next hour and I will vote before I must go. __________________ grand return?........

12-22-2006, 09:45 AM	#4
Folwren Messenger of Hope Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: In a tiny, insignificant little town in one of the many States. Posts: 5,076	Cross posted with Holbytlass's vote.

12-22-2006, 10:35 AM	#6
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	Celuien 15 Early suspicions, not serious 18 talks about silent ones 27 more of the same, wants us to look for the misleading and inconsistent 38 agrees with Rikae about avoidance of topics/persons 69 sums up her non-suspicions 70 typo 91 stuff about cobblers 94 corrects my misunderstanding 101 vote tally - votes morm, because his behaviour's jumping out the most 116 tally, again 127 tally... 128 confirms Eomer of the time problems 137 analysis of Kitanna, no findings 151 says Valier's a bit jumpy 156 talks about Farael's ideas 157 "Crossed with Folwren. Nothing more to add." 159 tells us she's short on time 171 votes Valier because she's jumpy and consistently defensive She's not sure about morm's behaviour Everyone else is more or less innocent to her I used to be suspicious about her, because she's been uncontroversial. Rereading her posts, I had no idea how uncontroversial. She's only suspicious of mormegil and Valier, the most obvious (because the two are most perceivably strange) picks if you don't want to offend anybody and turn his/her eyes on yourself. Her votes are utterly safe. She's very nice to everybody, which is not a bad, but a remarkable thing. Except the ones she voted for, she confirms everybody to look innocent to her. She told us to look at misleading and inconsistent ones. She, at the same time is leading nobody nowhere except along known tracks and is very thoughtful not to be inconsistent. Let us assume Farael is a cobbler, loud and distracting, then Celuien is the perfect corresponding werewolf. ++Celuien