Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Cailín]

Hmm, I am not very surprised by Kitanna's death, despite the fact that she got voted for twice. She was overall considered to be innocent and left a very small trail.

Would Wolf-Rikae or Wolf-Mormegil pull a bluff like this? Nah, I do not think they really would have seen the need.

Furthermore, I am even more inclined to believe in Morm's innocence because of his early vote. A wolf would more readily grasp the excuse of absense to not vote at all, I should think. He seems quite convinced of Celuien's guilt, which is interesting. Even though Celuien's posts were careful yesterday, I did not consider her vote for Mormegil very blatantly furry.

I will have to review yesterday's posts again before I name any suspects.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Hmm, I am not very surprised by Kitanna's death, despite the fact that she got voted for twice. She was overall considered to be innocent and left a very small trail.

My bolding, and this is just an example reflecting other comments said earlier on this game.

Does anyone else see the merit of my plan already? Why am I not dead? why isn't Nogrod, or Rikae, or even Folwren or Holbtlass or Celuien dead? What do we all have that Kitanna did not?

Yes, we were loud and noisy, and thus, likely to leave some sort of a trail. What have we said about Kitanna so far?

"Well, she pretty much leaves no trail, it could be a bold bluff, it could be an even bolder double bluff or it could be no bluff at all and the wolves just chose someone who would lead us nowhere"

I must say that I was the first to "abandon ship" and go against my own counsel, but it was too early to decide who was "silent". What would you have me do? vote for someone like Celuien, who became progressively more active as I went away? Since it was too early to make a judgement on the relative "silence" of every player, I was left with the more "regular" day 1 hunches.

Yet Today, not only I will probably be around for the end of the day (and thus, able to see who's been talking and who's not) but we'll also have two days worth of "history" to judge who's lurking in the shadows and who's dancing in the spotlight.

Unless anyone else has any sudden insight or theory on the identity of a wolf, I say we lynch ourselves a silent one.

A few questions that are running through my mind as I write this post.

Valier has posted, but has she said anything?
Is Naria playing this game or am I confused with another one?
Does Lawlende fool anyone with her "I'm a rookie werewolfer" claims? I believe she's smarter than what she lets on... much smarter.

Not that being smart means being a wolf, for all I know she might be a crafty ordo trying to avoid being killed during the breaks, but I'm just asking....

[Cailín]

Well, there is one obvious flaw in this plan. It makes things a lot easier for the two wolves, especially if they are notorious loudmouths themselves. They can just continue voting for the silent ones, if this becomes the generally accepted idea: silent ones who leave no trails at all once they are death and proven innocent because they voiced none of their opinions.

It is no good planning who to lynch or even what type of player to lynch. It will just make things easier for the evil creatures. Of course, there is about a 50/50 chance that there indeed is a wolf among the silent ones, but there might as well not be and then where will this plan lead us?

If there are absolutely no other options, only then it might be a good idea to lynch the ambiguous. But when I find wolvish behaviour in someone, that person will get my vote, regardless of quantity of posting.

It is nonetheless good to stimulate people to 'leave trails' as much as possible. It can be a lifesaver.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Farael

Does Lawlende fool anyone with her "I'm a rookie werewolfer" claims? I believe she's smarter than what she lets on... much smarter.

Not that being smart means being a wolf, for all I know she might be a crafty ordo trying to avoid being killed during the breaks, but I'm just asking....

All I can say on that one is that I've got vibes this time around. Santa's little naughty/nice elf has her antenna tuned in right now...

[Macalaure]

I agree that Kitanna is most probably a safe kill.

Poor Kit. Lynched on the first day already again...
How very unfair!

I think I will have a look at the votes now, especially the throw-aways. Since there are multiple lynchings, it is probably in the interest of the wolves to spread the votes - even more than it is usually.

Here's the tally:

Morm --> Rikae, 1
Kitanna --> Morm (Rikae 1, Morm 1)
Farael --> Folwren (Rikae 1, Morm 1, Folwren 1)
Morm X Rikae --> Valier (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Celuien --> Morm (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Lal --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1)
Folwren --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Mac --> Kath (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Valier --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 2)
Rikae --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Holby --> Morm (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Nogrod --> Kath (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 3, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Eomer --> Kath (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 4, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Naria --> Rikae (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 4, Kitanna 2, Farael 2, Rikae 1)

Kitanna and Kath are dead. Kath did not vote.
Most suspicious of these are to me:

Cailin - adds Kath as fourth name to the list. Her reasoning is well, but not too convincing.
Lalwende - adds fifth name. Not exactly a well-reasoned vote. This actually makes me feel confident about her. Wouldn't a new player, if a wolf, be more concerned about the appearance of the vote?
Folwren - the sixth name. Why does she not vote morm? You simply don't put a sixth name to the list if your other top suspect is already on the block. Very suspicious.
Valier - ties Farael with morm and Kath. A bit suspicious, but I will leave it there - today.
Rikae - votes for known innocent and ties Kitanna with three others. Suspicious.
Naria - throws vote away late. Voting morm would be too obvious if she is wolvish. Voting Kath would've destroyed the chance of a double lynching (if Kath would have appeared in the last moment). I hope we get her reasons for her vote today and I hope it will be more than "I was in a hurry and couldn't read up and figure out the situation"

According to this, Folwren is highly suspicious, Valier, Rikae and Naria somewhat, Cailín slightly.
I'm also getting strange vibes from two others, but I will wait what today will bring.


Something else:

Originally Posted by Farael

Yes, we were loud and noisy, and thus, likely to leave some sort of a trail.

Not necessarily. In fact, loud villagers who are off the trail, which most people are on Dance1, are a gift to the wolves.

[Naria]

Is Naria playing this game or am I confused with another one?

Umm, I know that Orc's are a little slow Farael or maybe you just missed the memo . At any rate I posted with what time was given to me during Dance1. Hope that makes your waters a little less murky

Mac, Yes I read through everything and yes I knew the situation. Simply put, I voted for her out of spite.

As of right now, I don't have any firm judgements. I am hoping that this will change as Dance2 tangos on.

[Naria]

*puts a rose between her teeth* Tango anyone?!

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Naria

*puts a rose between her teeth* Tango anyone?!

Of course, that is the dance of my land. No, not Mordor, I mean Argentina!

I cross-posted with you by the way...

[Farael]

Wow, i come back here after a long absence and I find only two posts... I should consider it a blessing, since I don't have to do a lot of catch-up, but then I'm trying to put in place a plan that'll only work if we all talk plenty.

I still stand by my plan. What most of you don't seem to grasp is that we could have this plan in place, and yet not vote for one "silent" person. If we are lucky, everyone will talk enough so that we can get a feel for them, and thus we won't lynch anyone based on silence alone. Yet, unless any of you has a "feel" on day 2 for a specific person, I say, let's lynch the "unfeelables" (aka, those that we won't get a feel for as they won't talk) now that it's too soon to have a good feel for anyone anyway!!!

That's the merit of my plan... I don't want to sound as a doom's day theorist, but we'll all regret it by the end of this game, when we start wondering whether Naria is silent because she's afraid of revealing something she should not if she talks more.

And is a misguided Ordo worse than a silent one? If the wolves start killing those that are off the trail hoping to lead us away from their scent, that'll leave only the ordos that are on the trail. If the wolves start killing the ones that are on the trail, then we'll notice it and follow their lead to victory!

And since only two names out of fourteen (at this point in time) are "on the trail", we can (by the use of logic and deduction) figure out after a few days any patterns that might be emerging. There are twelve "off the trail" names and two "on the trail". Thus, by following my plan, we force the wolves to play our game and start eliminating people that will leave a trail, whether by following their accusations directly, or by opposition

By letting the silents leave, we allow the wolves to kill those that leave no trail.

I might be becoming over-protective of my idea, but the more I think of it, the more I start suspecting those of you that oppose it!